Carlos Gomez’s Symbolic Pursuit

Way back at the beginning of May, the Diamondbacks were preparing to play the Brewers, and Kirk Gibson warned his pitchers about Carlos Gomez. He tipped them off about his aggressive tendencies, making clear that the pitchers would need to be careful. On Monday, May 5, Arizona got out to a 1-0 lead in the top of the first. In the bottom of the first, Mike Bolsinger started with a cutter, and Gomez swung, and the score was 1-1. One pitch, one swing, one dinger. It was exactly what Gibson warned against, and it’s just one of those things that Gomez does.

Said Gibson:

“We didn’t execute pitches from the first pitch of the game,” Gibson said. “I talked to you guys about Gomez. He’s a first-pitch fastball hitter and we threw one there and hit he it out of the park.”

Admitted Bolsinger:

“I knew he was a first-pitch guy, but I didn’t know he’d swing like that on the first pitch of the game,” he said. “I thought I could (sneak it by him), but I guess I didn’t.”

Gibson was right about Gomez being a first-pitch fastball hitter. Since 2012, when Gomez turned his career around, he’s hit .361 against first-pitch fastballs while slugging .669. That is a hell of a lot of damage.

But Gibson was wrong in that Gomez isn’t just a first-pitch fastball hitter. Against first-pitch breaking balls or offspeed stuff, he’s hit .434 while slugging .802. Carlos Gomez isn’t a first-pitch fastball hitter — Carlos Gomez is a first-pitch baseball hitter, and as he’s grown more and more comfortable with his new style, he’s taking things toward an extreme.

Baseball-Reference keeps track of first-pitch swing rates. A year ago, Gomez led regulars by swinging at 52% of first pitches. He had a lead on second place of six percentage points. Right now, Gomez leads regulars, having swung at 55% of first pitches. He has a lead on second place of almost 11 percentage points. Every statistical category in baseball has to have a leader. In almost every single instance, the leader is only the leader by a small margin. Gomez isn’t just swinging more at the first pitch than anyone — he could stay in the lead by taking more than 70 consecutive first pitches, were everything else to stay the same.

At 55%, Gomez is in rare territory, for an everyday player. In 2004, Vladimir Guerrero checked in at 54%. The same went for Randall Simon in 2002, and Vinny Castilla in 2001. To find a higher rate, you have to go back to Ozzie Guillen in 1991, when he swung at 56% of first pitches. And, in 1988, Mike Marshall swung at nearly 59% of first pitches. As raw percentages, Guillen and Marshall have Gomez beat. But, in 1988, the league-average first-pitch swing rate was about 33%. In 1991, it was about 30%. This year, it’s about 27%. As the years have passed, batters have gotten progressively more conservative on the first pitch, so if you adjust for that context, Gomez goes back on top. It’s a record that would hardly be a record, it’s not something anyone would talk about, but Carlos Gomez is on the way to posting the highest adjusted first-pitch swing rate in recent history, and that more or less captures what he’s become as a player.

Gomez, essentially, is aggressiveness, personified. He’s aggressive with his swing tendencies. He’s aggressive with his swing itself. He’s aggressive on the basepaths and he’s aggressive in center field. And while over-aggressiveness has caused otherwise talented players to fall short of sticking in the majors, this seems to be precisely Gomez’s wheelhouse. Offensively he’s like the best version of Josh Hamilton, but he can also run the bases and handle the middle of the outfield. There’s no questioning now that Gomez has blossomed, and it’s because he’s been allowed to embrace the player he was supposed to be, instead of the player coaches thought he should be.

The turnaround’s been thoroughly documented. Gomez grew tired of being told to put the ball on the ground and survive on his legs. So he basically asked for permission to try to drive the ball, and the Brewers were more than happy to assist. Here’s what he used to look like at release:

gomez2011

Here’s what he looks like now:

gomez2014

And here’s how some swings can end up:

gomezbolsinger

It would be one thing if Gomez were just more aggressive across the board. What’s remarkable is how he’s remained mostly in control. Between 2008 – 2011, Gomez swung at 36% of pitches out of the zone. Since 2012, he’s swung at 37% of pitches out of the zone. Meanwhile, between 2008 – 2011, Gomez swung at 65% of pitches in the zone. Since 2012, he’s swung at 76% of pitches in the zone. With a more fitting swing unleashed, Gomez has felt more comfortable attacking pitches worth attacking. He’s still aggressive out of the zone, but he’s increased his good aggressiveness without increasing so much of the bad, and that’s been a key to his unlocking this level.

Relatedly, let’s do some math with Baseball Savant. Between 2008 – 2011, Gomez swung at 30% of first pitches out of the zone. Since 2012, he’s swung at 33% of first pitches out of the zone. Meanwhile, between 2008 – 2011, Gomez swung at 56% of first pitches in the zone. Since 2012, he’s swung at 73% of first pitches in the zone. This year he’s up to 79%. Gomez still has his vulnerabilities, and he only makes contact with first pitches 70% of the time, but that’s when he gets to swing most aggressively, when he still has two more strikes to give. This year, Gomez has seen fewer first pitches in the zone than ever, as pitchers have responded to his aggressiveness. Gomez, in turn, has responded by passing up fewer opportunities than ever. Which makes for a tricky mental calculation, for pitchers — throw in the zone to get ahead, and Gomez might punish it. Try to take advantage of his aggressiveness, and you might fall behind. In this way Carlos Gomez is going on the offensive.

There’s a variety of factors behind the annual increase in strikeout rates, but among them is that hitters have been more passive with first pitches while pitchers have been slightly more aggressive. So batters have fallen behind more often, and then it’s the batters who have to defend. Carlos Gomez is zigging where a lot of baseball has been zagging. Gomez isn’t the only aggressive player in baseball, but he’s the most aggressive player in his way, which is the way of a possible MVP. Far more than anybody else, Gomez is attacking the first pitch he sees. This is because Carlos Gomez is forever on the attack.




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


16 Responses to “Carlos Gomez’s Symbolic Pursuit”

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  1. Bucky says:

    Cannot agree more with the sentiment in this article. And there are few other managers who would have created an atmosphere in which Gomez can succeed. Ron R wants his guys to push the action. ALWAYS. It is no coincidence the Brewers draw few walks and run into all kinds of outs on the bases. That is their manager’s preferred approach, and his players do what is asked. Right or wrong Milwaukee players are always forcing things be it at the plate or in the field.

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  2. 80s Guy says:

    Awesome article. Awesome to the max.

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  3. curious says:

    This is a process, not a result. Curious why you would adjust for context. I’ve never heard of anyone adjusting for a personal process, just the results of the era.

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    • Tim says:

      Why should it matter whether it is a “personal” process or a “results” process? He was using those numbers to show how rare something is. How can you possibly know how rare something is without comparing it to other things?

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  4. Cory Settoon says:

    I really enjoyed the article. Gomez has really stepped up his game. Also, he may have one of the greatest end-of-a-swing-that-hit-a-homerun ever.

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  5. Andrew says:

    As a lifelong Twins fan it drove me absolutely crazy that you would hear stories about how he could crush bomb after bomb in BP but then in the game he was instructed to tone it down. I guess power and the potential wins it could have brought just didn’t follow “The Twins Way.”

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    • Atreyu Jones says:

      Well, at least they didn’t lose the division by one game in a year in which they could have had Johan Santana in his prime under contract…

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      • jrogers says:

        Well, at least they didn’t trade Gomez for J.J. Hardy and then trade Hardy for two minor league relief pitchers.

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    • Bucky says:

      Ken Macha wasn’t a fan of Gomez either. Full credit to RR for realizing what the player CAN do versus what he cannot.

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    • David says:

      Battesr who hit home runs are expensive. Pitchers who get strikeouts as well. They are not the Twins way.

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  6. Mr Baseball says:

    Mark McGwire hit .201 once and was told to hit it the other way. HA! He ripped that period of life and admitted he was a born PULL HITTER!!

    If you are a ball player, do what comes naturally. Of course sharpen your skills, learn the zone, but don’t try to be something you are not.

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    • tx ball scout says:

      Not sure I’m buying “born pull hitter” talk.

      Any advice that includes – letting the ball get deep and using the whole field – is sound, to me.

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  7. CB says:

    Is this kind of approach better for the current environment, given the overall paucity of runs and the increasing number of pitches being thrown in the zone?

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  8. Grumpy Old Kirk Gibson says:

    I told that fool Bolsinger not to throw him a juicy first pitch heater, but no he did it anyways. What a jerk! I’m starting to question if Bolsinger is gritty enough for my team. He won’t even give me at least 120 pitches per start, which is what I always expect from all my starters.

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  9. scruddet says:

    That last image reminds me of Andruw Jones the year he hit ~50 home runs.

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