Carlos Lee to First?
This piece by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe mostly focuses on the postseason chances of Roy Oswalt‘s Philadelphia Phillies, but buried in there is also a nugget about Oswalt’s former team, the Houston Astros. Cafardo reports that in an attempt to increase Carlos Lee‘s trade value, the team will move the struggling outfielder to first base to start the 2011 season.
Lee has had a terrible year by anybody’s standards, let alone his own. After ten straight seasons of above average offensive performance and a total of 149 runs above average in that timeframe, Lee has collapsed in 2010. His slash line has dropped to .246/.289/.415 this season. Much of that is part of a BABIP collapse to .238, but his power numbers have continued to decline after his ISO dropped below .200 for the first time since 2001. Overall, Lee has a .306 wOBA and a 91 wRC+ – numbers that aren’t terrible overall, but a player needs to provide some defensive value to back up those kind of hitting numbers.
If it weren’t for defensive issues, a move to first base wouldn’t even be in the discussion. However, Lee is utterly Dunnian (or maybe Hawpesque?) when it comes to the outfield. He was serviceable earlier in his career, but his age has caught up to him, and an utter lack of quickness or speed makes Lee a liability in left field. DRS and UZR both have Lee between -15 and -17 runs this season in left field, and Tom Tango’s Fans Scouting Report ranks Lee as one of the bottom 10 left fielders in the majors. That kind of performance puts Lee’s defensive contributions below the value of a designated hitter.
In that sense, a move to first probably makes sense – not only is first base the easiest position, but it also sees the fewest chances of any position as well. Due to this lack of chances, it’s hard to imagine Lee as much worse than -10 – although it’s certainly possible – which is the level that would be equal to -15 in LF. If he can play at even a -5 level, that would make him about half a win better, and if Lee is an average first baseman, then his defensive value is probably increased by about one full win.
Of course, that won’t matter if his hitting doesn’t rebound – nobody’s going to give up prospects or take on salary to add a first baseman with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. There is a chance that he could improve, though. Lee’s contact skills are excellent, as he has only struck out 109 times in nearly 1300 plate appearances over the last two seasons. The problem is being able to produce with that contact, something that’s nearly impossible with a .238 BABIP, and the decline in power production hasn’t helped either.
As a plodding 34 year old with a drastically falling line drive rate, it’s not surprising that Lee’s BABIP has plummeted, and given that profile, there’s no guarantee that it rebounds. Even if it does, it probably won’t get above .300 – the last time Lee posted a .300+ BABIP was 2004. However, CHONE’s projection of .282/.328/.478 would at least make him an above average hitter. With a conservative estimate of -3 runs at first base, that would make Lee a 1.0 WAR player.
That looks like it would certainly increase Lee’s value, although not enough to get anything of value in return, particularly if the Lance Berkman trade or the Roy Oswalt trade are indicators at all. However, this analysis so far has overlooked the presence of Brett Wallace at first base. Wallace has looked awful in the majors to date, but he is rated highly by some talent evaluators. Starting Lee at first base would mean that Wallace is either relegated to AAA or the bench. The latter could be a disastrous decision for Wallace’s development. The former would mean a third tour through AAA, a league in which he has already posted .800+ OPSs twice. Perhaps Wallace, who turned 24 last month, could learn more with another stint in the minors, but it’s also possible that he needs to develop at the MLB level.
When it comes to trade value, the book on Carlos Lee is simple: he has none, and barring an unlikely offensive explosion at the age of 35, he won’t have any next year either. In any case, the position that he plays is probably inconsequential. The real issue for the Astros here isn’t Carlos Lee, but instead the developmental track for Brett Wallace. This decision says to me that the player development sector of the Astros front office thinks Wallace needs time in AAA. If Carlos Lee can bring in any sort of value back in a trade – sometimes, the trade market is quite unpredictable – then that’s just gravy for Houston.
I think it’s speculation at this point. Cafardo said the Astros will “likely” move Lee to first base, which in context looks like he’s referring to the fact that Lee is currently getting more starts there than Brett Wallace.
My assumption is that Brett Wallace will be given every opportunity to win the job in spring training.
Another thing to consider is that the Astros don’t have any MLB-ready outfield prospects the caliber of Brett Wallace at first base. There is some depth, but they all look like replacement level to 1 win players. Perhaps J.D. Martinez could be better than that, but there is very little chance that he will be ready for the majors out of spring training.
Whenever I see a babip at .238 like Lee’s I always wonder what his xBabip is. Where can one find that data. It does not appear that Fangraphs carries that important stat.
vr, Xei
Lee’s footspeed is almost preternaturally slow. I’m sure there has been some luck involved in his low BABIP this year, but I suspect his time to first base is down. Also his bat speed (less hard contact).
Sometimes BABIP drops are luck and sometimes a guy just gets old fast (ie the bat speed/foot speed issues). Its impossible to tell without more data (another year or two)
Check out his hit distribution rates?
Very roughly, I use xBABIP = .75*LD% + .25*GB% + .15*(N-IF)FB% + .01*(IF)FB%, so Lee’s 15.4% LD%, 38.6% GB%, 40.3% (N-IF)FB%, and 5.7 (IF)FB% mean that his xBABIP is approximately .274.
So there is plenty of simple bad luck going on here, despite his LD% dropping.
With a simple xBABIP calc, I’m guessing .238 is within about 2 SD of .274. If so, we can’t conclude bad luck.
Moving him kinda makes that Brett Wallace trade look a bit stupid. They could have used Gose to get another prospect or perhaps forced the Phillies to give up something else (Gose was only targeted because Wade knew the Jays wanted him in the first place).
Ed Wade and long-term plans…yeah.
This is kind of a silly criticism. For one thing, at the time Wade couldn’t have known Wallace would struggle this much. But beyond that, Wallace doesn’t have to spend the next year or two in the majors to be valuable in the long term. Even if (god forbid) Carlos Lee plays first base through the next two full seasons, after which his contract ends, Wallace could still slide in at that point, and would only be 26. In fact, if that did happen, the Astros would have him under cheap team control through his prime as a hitter.
Well there was plenty of speculation before the trade that Wallace would be a well below average MLB 1B over the next couple years. So it wasn’t exactly unforeseeable.
The Astros don’t technically have to move Lee to 1B/steal Brett Wallace’s job to prove their point. All they have to do is have him split time in Spring Training and demonstrate some aptitude for the position. Scouts will be there to pick up the rest. At this point the Astros are merely looking to scrape as much cash back from Lee as possible. That might be best achieved by cutting him, but as someone pointed out, it’s not like the ‘Stros have any particularly relevant players waiting to take reps at LF or 1B. My prescription would be to load up on former stud prospects of the Jayson Werth/Jay Gibbons/Rocco Baldelli ilk and hope to strike gold.
“That might be best achieved by cutting him”
Should read – That might be most painlessly achieved…
Obviously they’re going to get a little more cash back if they make a trade, but Wade’s time might be better spent courting those bounceback, strong pedigree veterans I mentioned.
It wasn’t foreseeable that he’d start out THIS bad. Most thought he’d be above replacement level to start out, at least, and about average in the long term.
I agree with your other point though.
Lee needs to be moved regardless of whether or not Brett Wallace is legit. Lee is probably the worst defensive LF in baseball by a very large margin.
It has nothing to do with Wallace’s struggles. They were talking about moving Lee to 1B before the trade.
Hey, Orem. My only beef would be sacrificing Wallace’s major league development time. Yeah, he’d still be just 26 in your scenario, but I’d rather he had two years of regular PAs facing major league pitching.
I definitely agree with that blackout. As an Astros fan, it’s very irritating watching Lee sap Wallace’s playing time. I’m just saying that moving Lee to first base doesn’t make the acquisition of Wallace a poor long term decision regardless.
However, if you think owner Drayton McLane is going to let Wade cut Carlos Lee, you’re probably mistaken. I think Lee should be released, but it probably won’t happen.
’tis a shame. Drayton is a businessman, I would have thought he understood the concept of sunk cost.
It would be as painful as the amount of money the Dodgers spent on Andruw Jones or Jason Schmidt, but I’m not sure what the highest amount that has been left on a contract when being released. Is their a higher example than Russ Ortiz’s $22m when he was cut by Arizona?
“nobody’s going to give up prospects or take on salary to add a first baseman with a sub-.300 on-base percentage.”
You clearly underestimate Dayton “I traded for Mike Jacobs, who the hell is Kila?” Moore .
Well … I know it’s just 180 or so at-bats, but Kila’s OBP is currently below .300 as well. (Yes, I know about his minor league numbers.)
This move has the fingerprints of Drayton McClane’s Svengali Tal Smith all over it, not Ed Wade. If anything, Wade has seemed to push the younger players over the vets. Smith is the one who pushed the stupid Lee signing to begin with, which predates Wade by years. Also, due to contract issues, the Lee trade has to happen this winter. Pretty sure his no-trade expires (another bit of brilliance by Tal), but he’s a a 10-5 after this year, so moving him around in the lineup to try to trade him next year seems particularly futile.