Carlos Ruiz Gets Bought Out

Reportedly, Carlos Ruiz has resigned with the Phillies for three years and nine million dollars, which covers his remaining years of arbitration. Since these are arbitration years, figuring out what the Phillies are paying for isn’t as straightforward as in a free agent signing. The standard way of accounting for arbitration years is to assume that the team will be paying 40, 60, and 80 percent of the player’s actual value. So, spreading the contract evenly over three years and dividing the three million dollar annual salary by 40, 60, and 80%, the “real value” of the contract is about $16.3 million. While earlier in the off-season I assumed something like $4-$4.4 million a win, the market has been settling at closer to $3.5 million. Assuming slight yearly salary inflation and a half-win-a-season decline, the Philadelphia is paying Ruiz as if he’s 1.8 WAR player for 2010. Let’s see if Ruiz stacks up.

Offensively, Ruiz had a good 2009, especially for a catcher, hitting .255/.355/.425 for a .337 wOBA. That was by far his best recent year; Ruiz had a .319 wOBA in 2007 and .279 wOBA in 2008. Moreover, despite this being the first year he was elgible for arbitration, Ruiz just turned 31, an age at which most players are pretty clearly on the decline slope, even if they aren’t dealing with the wear-and-tear of catching. CHONE projects Ruiz for .255/.337/.401, or 8 runs below average per 150 games in context-neutral linear weight, while on his FanGraphs player page you get his nominal linear weights (wOBA/wRAA) at a bit below average (.327 wOBA). ZiPS is less optimistic: .251/.341/.391, which I translate to .324 wOBA, about -2/150. Marcel says: .313 wOBA, -8/150. The fans are the most optimistic: .259/.358/.401, .333 wOBA, +3/150. And, just for the heck of it, my own “system” (I’m wavering between FREDO, GOB, and DAYTON) agrees with Marcel: .313 wOBA, -8/150. That’s a lot of messy numbers! Let’s take something in the middle and call Ruiz a -4/150 hitter.

Defensively, the Fans Scouting Report had Ruiz as one of the better catchers in 2009, and my own defensive rankings of 2009 catchers also place him near the top at +5.4 runs. CHONE and the Fans both project Ruiz for about +3/150 in 2010.

A proper WAR estimate involves playing time. While most of the linear weights/runs figures I’ve given above are prorated for 150 games, Ruiz is a catcher, he’s 31, and he’s never played more than 117 games in a season. The Fan Projections are particularly useful for this, and have Ruiz projected for 108 games in 2010.

Putting it together, -4 offense, +3 defense, +12 prorated positional adjustment, +20 replacement level, all prorated for 108 games = about a 2.2 WAR player. As we saw above, the Phillies are paying for a 1.8 WAR player, so they got a bit of a bargain, although not as much of a bargain as I initially thought it might be.

Ruiz isn’t Brian McCann or Joe Mauer. Still, while taking arbitration into account lessens the bargain the Phillies are getting, given what teams have been paying for the likes of Bengie Molina, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez this offseason, it again illustrates the advantage clubs accrue when they have “merely” average-ish players under club control.



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Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.


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Joe R
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Joe R

For someone that “rejects” SABRmetrics, it SEEMS (so far) that Amaro makes pretty logical business decisions.

Albeit he inherited the best roster in his league.

NEPP
Guest
NEPP

The Phillies don’t “reject” SABRmetrics. People continually misunderstand their philosophy. They simply don’t rely 100% on it. They rely on first-hand scouting reports and they seem to know what they’re doing when it comes to identifying jewels in the rough.

For example, Chase Utley was pegged as a utility guy for years. They (their scouting department led by Marty Wolever) snagged Victorino, Werth, Dobbs, for basically nothing.

They trust their scouts and they have good ones.

Brad Johnson
Member

Werth and Dobbs were Gillick projects, not really the work of the scouting department. The Phillies only ended up with Victorino because the Dodgers declined to pay 25,000 to take him back.

Joe R
Guest
Joe R

Well their scouts did help nab Victorino in the Rule 5. It really is impressive how much of Philly’s talent is either in-house or guys other teams didn’t want.

6 of their 8 starters fall into that group. Someone’s doing good work when that’s happening.

Larry Smith Jr.
Guest

To me, this ironically makes their decision not to keep Cliff Lee more baffling. I don’t live in Philly and I’m not privy to the general Phillies fan pulse, but if I were a Phillies fan the only way that I could forgive my FO for not keeping Lee is if they win a championship. Even being a runner-up again isn’t good enough.

As a Tigers fan who saw them field a horrible team from basically the mid 90s into the mid 00s primarily due to bad drafts and development (which started around the time the ’84 championship core began to decline), I fully understand the desire and need to replenish/restock the farm system. However, windows to win the World Series are not large unless you’re the Yankees,and while they got back three good and intriguing prospects they didn’t get back any *CAN’T-MISS BONAFIDE SUPERSTAR* level prospects.

I suppose only time can tell, but it seemed to me as much as anything that the decision to trade Lee was as much of a no-confidence vote in the scouting department as anything. I think if you truly trust your scouts, then you trust they will get you 2 quality players in the draft (that you would receive next year when Lee is a type A).

I understand that getting two AA guys and a hi-A guy with roughly 6 or 7 pro seasons between them provides a better ability to project than two college and/or H.S. draft picks, as well as gives you guys who are theoretically closer to the majors, but like I said……if you trust your scouts, you pay them to make the right calls. That has been my impression all along.

Now in this discussion there seems to be agreement that the Phillies have done pretty well in scouting, and the evidence provided seems sound. So if their scouts are doing a good job……..why not keep Lee and maximize your chance at a title with a Halladay/Lee/Hamels trio at the top of the rotation? These re-ups clearly show that they’re committed to spending now and in the future, and signings of players like Ross Gload seem wasteful when you’re claiming poor on Lee. To my mind, they should’ve gone for it all here and let Lee walk and take the picks.

Time will tell, but if I personally were a Phillies fan, it’d be championship or bust. And I’m not the type of person who normally thinks in such black/white terms, especially with the huge luck factor that is involved with the MLB playoffs. However it seems that they unnecessarily didn’t go for it all, so to me the only way to validate that is to win it all anyway.

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