After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Last year’s ZiPS WAR projection for very strong outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was quite high (6.4, precisely) for someone so young. This year’s ZiPS WAR projection is also quite high (4.2, in this case) for someone so young, but also likely to be regarded as a disappointment relative to last year’s figure. The primary reason for the decline — namely, Stanton’s 500 most recent plate appearances — isn’t a mystery. Still, given the choice, one prefers a more, and not less, productive Giancarlo Stanton, probably.
Elsewhere around the diamond, one finds that the Marlins aren’t without talent. In fact, a glut of promising outfielders means that one from the triumvirate of Jake Marisnick, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich will likely be without a starting job at the beginning of the season. None of that group project to be stars in 2014, but all three are both (a) projected to be worth at least a win and also (b) either 23 years old or younger.
Finally, I’ll note — primarily because he’s a learned gentleman — that Ed Lucas is likely also to play some part in the Marlins infield, even if ZiPS isn’t entirely enthusiastic about what he’ll do there.