Last Tuesday, I published a post examining the hitters in this year’s Cape Cod summer league through the lens of my KATOH projection system. Today, I’m back to look at the pitchers. As I did with minor-league players and college players, I deployed a series of probit regressions to see what stuck when it came to forecasting major-league performance for Cape League players. I used those results to generate an expected WAR total — in this case, through age 28. These projections are far from gospel: scouting the stat line is always dangerous, and it’s even more dangerous than usual at the college level, where the samples are small, the players are raw, and the quality of opposing pitching runs the gamut. Nonetheless, statistical performance is an often overlooked component of prospect evaluation, and the performers often go on to exceed expectations.
A couple of caveats. Due to the poor quality of publicly available historical summer-league data, these projections do not directly account for pitchers’ home-run rates, which is obviously less than ideal. Secondly, these projections take into account only what these players have done this summer. Ideally, they’d account for college stats and summer-league stats. I do plan to link these two data sets at some point, but, unfortunately, it’s easier said than done.
Below, you’ll find a few notes on performances whom I deemed noteworthy. Below that, you’ll find a giant table for all hitters who recorded at least 75 batters faced (BFs) in the Cape Cod League this year. The two rightmost columns refers to each prospect’s ranking on Baseball America’s Cape Cod top-30 list and Frankie Piliere’s top-150 list from D1 Baseball.