Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Washington at San Diego, 22:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Washington at San Diego, 22:10 ET
First of All, Concerning a Regret of the Author’s
The author would be remiss not to mention how he’s ashamed of having used the phrase “doubling down” in the title of this post, which expression (i.e. “doubling down”) appears to be some manner of card-playing terminology, but which the author has only ever encountered colloquially, and from which expression he’s derived little pleasure previously.

Moving On, With Regards to This Game
Starting this game for San Diego is Burch Smith, to which right-hander’s major-league debut the author dedicated the largest part of his Notes column this past Saturday and about which right-hander’s debut one might reasonably use a word like “Ick” or “Yeesh.”

Burch Smith’s Debut, His Line from It
Here’s Burch Smith’s line from his debut on Saturday (box): 1.0 IP, 10 TBF, 2 K, 2 BB, 2 GB on 6 batted-balls (33.3% GB), 6.46 xFIP.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. On Monday and Tuesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Yesterday, we considered here the most improved pitchers according to Steamer.

Below are the most improved pitchers, except now according to ZiPS — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. A.J. Burnett, RHP, Pittsburgh
ZiPS (Pre): 172.1 IP, 7.31 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 4.07 ERA
ZiPS (RoS): 135.0 IP, 8.18 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.85 ERA
Notes: Through nine starts now, Burnett has struck out 31.6% of opposing batters — a rate exceeded by only Yu Darvish (39.0%) and Max Scherzer (32.5%) among qualified starts. It’s true to say that the right-hander was better last season following his departure from New York. He was better, though, not because of an increased strikeout rate, but rather improved walk and ground-ball rates. What Burnett has done so far is unprecedented in his career: his previous high strikeout rate is a 25.5% mark he posted in 2007. The difference between his preseason and rest-of-season projected strikeout rates is a testament to what appears to be some kind of real improvement.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. On Monday and Tuesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively.

Below are the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Detroit
Steamer (Pre): 179.0 IP, 7.05 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 4.05 ERA
Steamer (RoS): 138.0 IP, 7.96 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 3.71 ERA
Notes: Part of a rotation which entered the season with the entirely formidable Justin Verlander and ever more brilliant Max Scherzer, it’s Sanchez who has posted the highest WAR so far (2.6) among major-league pitchers. It’s not entirely clear what Sanchez has done to improve upon his already above-average repertoire, but he’s somehow managed to increase the swinging-strike rate on all three of his main pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup).

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. Yesterday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer — where “most improved” was defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.” Below are the most improved hitters, except now according to ZiPS.

Note: because the final preseason edition of ZiPS is released relatively early, there are a number of players originally projected with one team but now playing with, and being projected for, another. The change in teams also means a change in park effects, and therefore a change in raw wOBA. As such, I omitted from my search any player who might be subject to this effect. That stated, Mike Carp (97 wRC+ preseason, 110 wRC+ rest-of-season) and Vernon Wells (97 wRC+ preseason, 107 wRC+ rest-of-season) deserve recognition.

5. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay
ZiPS (Pre): 538 PA, .263/.355/.486 (.289 BABIP), .358 wOBA, 132 wRC+
ZiPS (RoS): 431 PA, .276/.365/.508 (.306 BABIP), .373 wOBA, 140 wRC+
Notes: Speaking anecdotally, at least, ZiPS appears to be more aggressive than Steamer in terms of integrating recent performances into its rest-of-season projections. By way of example, the player (Josh Donaldson) occupying the fifth spot on the Steamer version of this list from yesterday has been assigned only a 10-point improvement in his rest-of-season wOBA projection and four-point improvement in wRC+. Longoria, meanwhile, has posted 15- and eight-point improvements, respectively.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.

This week, in the Notes, we’ll be considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. Below are the most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”

Note: any player either (a) with fewer than 150 projected rest-of-season plate appearances or (b) absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.

5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 306 PA, .257/.324/.432 (.286 BABIP), .329 wOBA, 107 wRC+
Notes: Most of Donaldson’s improvement so far seems to have come from an increase in projected BABIP. After entering the season with a .272 figure in 328 major-league plate appearances — and only a ca. .300 BABIP in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League — he currently has a .336 so far this season through 159 plate appearances.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Brief Review: Francisco Liriano’s First Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Brief Review: Francisco Liriano’s First Start
Introduction
Talented and also mercurial left-hander Francisco Liriano made his major-league season debut yesterday (Saturday) against the Mets in New York. What follows is a very brief review of same.

Liriano’s Results
Liriano had one of Saturday’s best starts in the league, posting the second-best single-game xFIP (1.58) among the day’s 30 starters and also third-highest single-game WAR (0.3). Here’s his complete line: 5.1 IP, 24 TBF, 9 K, 2 BB, 4 GB on 12 batted-balls (33.3%), .462 BABIP.

Liriano’s Pitches
As the PITCHf/x chart below (featuring pitch speed and horizontal movement) mostly reveals, Liriano threw his usual complement of pitches: a combination of four-seam and sinking fastballs, slider, and changeup.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: San Diego at Tampa Bay, 18:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: San Diego at Tampa Bay, 18:10 ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for San Diego
Starting this game for San Diego — in fact, making his major-league debut in this game for San Diego — is 23-year-old right-hander Burch Smith.

Regarding Burch Smith, Who the Hell He Is
In terms of who the hell is Burch Smith, Burch Smith is one of the minor leagues’ most successful pitchers this season so far, having posted a 37:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, for example, in just 31.1 innings (six starts) for Padres Double-A affiliate San Antonio — which performance (along with reports regarding his stuff) has earned him a place among the Fringe Five each of the last three weeks.

Regarding Burch Smith, Who the Hell He Also Is
Originally, Smith was a 14th-round pick by the Padres in 2011 out of the University of Oklahoma, at which university he had matriculated following two years at junior college. He pitched briefly in the Arizona League following the draft in 2011 (2.0 IP, 4:1 K:BB) and then in the High-A California League last season (128.2 IP, 137:27 K:BB).

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Table: Every Team’s Park-Adjusted Home-Run Rate
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Table: Every Team’s Park-Adjusted Home-Run Rate
The reader might be surprised to learn — as the author was surprised to learn — that the Cleveland Indians currently lead the entire major leagues in home runs. Nor is their success merely an illusion of park factors. In fact, Cleveland’s Progressive Field allows home runs at a rate somewhat below league average.

Below are the raw and adjusted home runs totals and rates for every major-league team currently. Note that home-run park factors for Mariners, Mets, and Padres don’t reflect all recent structural changes to those teams’ respective home parks. Note also that park factors have already been halved for use on full season stats.

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Table of Contents
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1. Pitcher NERD, Now Featuring Pace
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Pitcher NERD, Now Featuring Pace
What the Reader Needs to Know
A thing the reader might need to know — to benefit from the present discussion, at least — is that NERD is the very proprietary watchability metric crafted artisanally by the present author and found daily in these Notes. (Read more about NERD here.)

What Else the Reader Needs to Know
Another thing the reader should know — again, with a view to benefiting from the present discussion — is that Pitcher NERD is the version of NERD which applies to pitchers exclusively.

A Note Regarding Pitcher NERD, Its Improvement
It has recently and somewhat emphatically been brought to the author’s attention that, while widely (and correctly) regarded as infallible, that Pitcher NERD might also (paradoxically?) benefit from the inclusion of an additional variable — namely, from the addition of pitcher pace.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Seattle at Pittsburgh, 12:35 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Seattle at Pittsburgh, 12:35 ET
Regarding This Game, One of Its Virtues
One of the virtues of this game is how, in Felix Hernandez (50.2 IP, 65 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) and A.J. Burnett (42.0 IP, 68 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR), it features two of the major leagues’ strongest pitchers.

Regarding This Game, Another of Its Virtues
Another of this game’s virtues is how, owing to Pittsburgh’s excellent center-field camera, it will facilitate a much better angle for watching Felix Hernandez than the right-hander’s home stadium and camera do.

By Way of Example, Harang at Safeco
By way of example, here’s a screenshot from the first inning of Aaron Harang‘s May 1st start against Baltimore at Safeco:

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Detroit at Washington, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Detroit at Washington, 19:05 ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for Detroit
Starting this game for Detroit is the league leader in pitcher WAR as of Monday, right-hander Anibal Sanchez.

Regarding This Game, Who’s Not Starting It
Not starting this game for Detroit is other league leader in pitcher WAR as of Monday, different right-hander Justin Verlander.

Regarding Those WAR Figures, A Question the Reader Might Have
A question the reader might have with regard to how only Monday (and not Tuesday) WAR figures are cited above is, “Why is that the case?”

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Table of Contents
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1. Three Notable Eastern League Performances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Eastern League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Three Notable Eastern League Performances
The leaderboards for the Double-A Eastern League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards.

• J.R. Murphy and Christian Vazquez are both (a) among the Eastern League’s top prospect-age hitters per SCOUT, and (b) 22-year-old catching prospects. The former is in the Yankees system; the latter, in the Red Sox system. They’ve both posted walk-to-strikeout ratios above 1.0 so far, while also showing above-average power relative to the league. Sox Prospects refers to Vazquez as an “excellent defensive catcher.” Murphy split time between catching and third base in the low minors, which could potentially stall his development, although reports suggest that he’s improving constantly.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Boston at Texas, 15:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Boston at Texas, 15:05 ET
Regarding Texas, Who’s Starting for Them
Starting this game for Texas is talented right-hander Yu Darvish.

Regarding Yu Darvish, What He’s Done This Season
In terms of what Yu Darvish has done this season, here are numbers which tell much of that that story: 38.2 IP , 38.4% K, 8.6% BB, 51.9% GB, 2.18 SIERA, 56 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR, 1.6 RA9-Wins

Ranks: Darvish Relative to the League
Here are those same numbers as above, except also now with Darvish’s rank in each relative to the league’s 107 qualified starters: 38.2 IP (37th), 38.4% K (1st), 8.6% BB (74th), 51.9% GB (21st), 2.18 SIERA (1st), 56 xFIP- (2nd), 1.8 WAR (3rd), 1.6 RA9-Wins (12th).

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Table of Contents
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1. Discretionary NERD Scores by Robert J. Baumann
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Discretionary NERD Scores by Robert J. Baumann
It has become customary in these Notes for the handsome author to assign NERD scores*, at his discretion, to those pitchers who’ve accumulated fewer than 20 innings as a starter — with a view, that is, to completing the day’s NERD Game Scores and, as a result, making all well within the Republic.

*NERD being the present site’s very proprietary watchability score.

It so happened, however, that the author composed today’s edition of the Notes both at a Milwaukee-area cafe and beside NotGraphs contributor/existential blunderbuss Robert J. Baumann. It was to Baumann whom the present author conceded his NERD privileges for the day.

Below are the five pitchers who are starting this afternoon/evening but who’ve also thrown fewer than 20 innings as a starter this season — each accompanied by Baumann’s discretionary NERD score and his justification of same (both, of course, being subject to the derision of the Outraged Public).

Pitcher: Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati
Discretionary NERD: 11
Baumann’s Explanation: He’s striking out batters at an amazing pace. Not really walking guys. And he looks a little bit like Bryce Harper. In the face, I mean. [Note: Baumann has celebrated Cingrani recently in the fire-hot pages of NotGraphs.]

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Milwaukee, 20:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Milwaukee, 20:10 ET
Regarding the Cardinals, Who’s Starting for Them
In terms of who’s starting for the Cardinals tonight, it’s young and prized right-hander Shelby Miller.

Regarding Shelby Miller, His Performance to Date
Regarding Shelby Miller’s performance to date, it wouldn’t be inaccurate at all to characterize it as excellent. To wit: 5 GS, 30.2 IP, 27.1% K, 8.2% BB, 45.5% GB, 3.24 SIERA, 83 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR.

Regarding Miller, His Approach
One thing regarding Shelby Miller’s approach is his reliance on just two pitches, his fastball and curve — which pitches he’s throwing a combined 99% of the time, according to PITCHf/x data.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 14:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 14:10 ET
Firstly, Concerning the Title of This Post
With regard to the title of this post, it’s fair to say that the author was both pleased and very pleased with himself for having devised it.

Secondly, Concerning the Title of This Post
With regard to the title of this post, it’s also fair to say that, while in the midst of feeling pleased and very pleased with himself, that the author consulted Google to verify that no one else had produced the precise and amusing collection of words found in it before, and found actually that nearly everyone has produced the precise and amusing collection of words found in it before.

What One Learns
What one learns in cases like this — and, really, should have learned already — is that one is considerably less special than one’s mother had originally let on.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Philadelphia at Cleveland, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Philadelphia at Cleveland, 19:05 ET
A Fact Regarding Cleveland, The Baseball Team
After their 14-2 victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday (box), Cleveland now leads the majors in park-adjusted batting by a substantial margin, with a 120 wRC+.

A Fact Regarding Cleveland, The City
In Cleveland, all love is unrequited love.

A Fact Regarding Cleveland, The Baseball Team
In no small part due to the seven home runs they hit collectively on Tuesday, Cleveland now also leads the majors in park-adjusted home-run rate (4.0%) — at least by the author’s own hasty calculations.

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Table of Contents
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1. Featured Game: Chicago AL at Texas, 20:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Chicago AL at Texas, 20:05 ET
Regarding This Game, What Makes It Notable
In terms of what makes this game notable, that’s largely due to how Texas right-hander Yu Darvish is starting it for Texas.

Regarding This Game, What’d Make It Even More Notable
What’d make this game even more notable is if Texas right-hander Yu Darvish were somehow starting it for Chicago, instead.

Regarding Yu Darvish, What Makes Him Notable
When you talk about a pitcher, you’re talking about someone whose objective is to prevent runs. And when you talk about a pitcher’s ability to prevent runs, you’re generally talking about his ability to record strikeouts and induce ground balls while also limiting walks. Darvish has done those things to such a degree (39.8% K, 8.1% BB, 59.0% GB) as we would expect him to concede fewer than two earned runs for every nine innings.

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Table of Contents
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1. Announcement: NERD Scores Now Available
2. NERD for Pitchers: Leaderboards and Formula
3. NERD for Teams: Leaderboard and Formula
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Announcement: NERD Scores Now Available
The purpose of this announcement is to inform the reader that NERD scores are now available and will be a fixture in the Daily Notes for the remainder of the season.

“What is a NERD score, even?” a reasonable person might ask. It’s this, in fact: an attempt to summarize, in one number (on a scale of 0-10), the watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. It’s also this: a response to a challenge issued by Rob Neyer to the author in May of 2010.

Below is a discussion of pitcher and team NERD, specifically — along with leaderboards for each and relevant current formulae.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
2. Potentially Useful Video: John Lackey’s Season Debut
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Today’s Notable Games (With a Note on Free MLB.TV Games)
Note: on what MLBAM is calling Free Preview Sunday, all of today’s games besides the Atlanta-Detroit ESPN Sunday Night one are available for free on MLB.TV.

Cincinnati at Washington | 13:35 ET
After an excellent performance in his first major-league start, Tony Cingrani was even better in his second one, striking out nine of 25 Cubs batters while walking none (box). Notable is this: Cingrani compiled 12 swinging-strikes among the 72 fastballs he threw, or ca. 17%. League average, meanwhile, is about 6%.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio

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