When it comes to minor league and amateur baseball, scouting box scores tells only a piece of the story. In mid-April, I had the opportunity to travel to Greenville, S.C., to see West Virginia Pirates right-hander Clay Holmes. Five days later, North Carolina State ace Carlos Rodon pitched the Saturday night game at Georgia Tech. As of today, Rodon is the top prospect in the 2014 draft.

Admittedly, my last NCAA baseball game was in 2011, when now-Mariners prospect Danny Hultzen faced off against now-Padres prospect Mark Pope. Carson Cistulli would shame me in public for my general lack of interest in the college game, but that lack of familiarity is a driving factor for this piece.

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If you knew Emilio Bonifacio‘s younger brother was an outfield prospect in the Kansas City Royals’ farm system, you might assume the two are roughly similar. But Emilio — a speedy, switch-hitting, utility man for the Toronto Blue Jays — and Jorge have little in common, at least when it comes to their games. Jorge, the younger of the pair, is a burly right fielder with a strong arm. He was enjoying an excellent campaign as a 19-year-old in the Carolina League when he broke his hamate bone Tuesday during batting practice. Reports suggest he’ll miss six to eight weeks.

It’s difficult to say how the injury will affect his development. Even after returning to the field, the alleged power-sapping effects of a hamate break can linger. Whether appropriate or not, the injury will cast a shadow over the rest of his season.

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It’s always fun to stumble upon a great pitching duel. Recently, I was able to take in the game between two top pitching prospects at the Double-A level on May 2: Cleveland’s Danny Salazar and Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon. Both hurlers come from very different backgrounds. Salazar signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2006 but saw his career derailed by injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2010. I ranked him as the seventh-best prospect in Cleveland’s system enter the 2013 season. Taillon was a higher-profile amateur pitcher as the second overall selection in the 2010 draft. I ranked the right-hander as the second-best prospect in the Pirates’ system prior to the start of the season.

Salazar, now 23, was absolutely dominant on this night. He allowed just three base runners (one hit, two walks) and 12 of his 18 outs were recorded via the strikeout. The right-hander overpowered the opposing hitters with his fastball/curveball combination — even though he struggled with the command of his heater.

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The 2013 season is still in its infancy but two organizations have already faced more than their fair share of struggles in their minor league systems. The Texas Rangers entered the year with one of the better systems in baseball, while the Toronto Blue Jays fell somewhere in the middle after nearly gutting the system in what may amount to a misguided attempt to rebuild the big league team in one off-season.

Just 20 years old, shortstop Jurickson Profar has already spent time in the majors and he opened the 2013 season in triple-A. The Curacao native, who entered the year as the club’s No. 1 prospect, struggled out of the gate but he’s hardly embarrassed himself. It’s a different story for second overall prospect Mike Olt and his struggles have been well documented. He hit just .139 with 32 strikeouts in 20 games before hitting the disabled list with vision problems. He has excellent defensive skills at third base but lacks a spot at the big league level so his bat is going to have to pick up if he’s going to shift to a corner outfield spot of first base.

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Drafting 15th in 2012, the Indians selected Texas A&M right fielder Tyler Naquin. A collegiate standout, Naquin earned the Big 12 Player of the Year Award before Cleveland selected him and shifted him from right field — where he started 115 games as a freshman and sophomore — to center field. As Marc Hulet noted last month, Naquin’s ability to play his new position will determine his success.

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Ninety-nine — a number rarely seen once, let alone multiple times from the same pitcher. In his last start, Mauricio Cabrera touched 99 mph enough for teammates charting in the stands to chuckle and shake their heads in disbelief.

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“I’m working on catching balls in the pocket,” Pirates’ minor league catcher Wyatt Mathisen told me as we talked about the nuances of his game outside the Greenville Drive locker room last month. Mathisen’s candor left me speechless. When you’re talking to a professional baseball player, there are some things you just assume. And one of those is the ability to catch a ball properly.

So where does he go from here — this 19-year-old converted shortstop, this catcher under construction? Talk to Mathisen for a few minutes and you see a young man who acknowledges his weaknesses; but there’s also a ballplayer who’s eager to improve.

Video after the jump:

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With a month of the minor league season in the books, chat questions are already rolling in about who the top prospect will be in 2014. Each month, I’ll take a look at players who were close in 2013 (we’ll call them “Headliners”), plus fast risers who are staking an early claim to the top spot (we’ll call them “Opening Acts”).

To begin this exercise, it’s important to understand where the number one pick comes from. Since 1990, Baseball America has been releasing its top-100 prospects list. Below is a chart of the year, number-one prospect, and where he ranked the year previous. Read the rest of this entry »

Two Double-A starting pitchers with volatile prospect values faced each other on May 1. Noel Arguelles of the Kansas City Royals and Seth Blair of the St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of make-or-break seasons.

Cuban native Arguelles signed a massive five-year, big-league contract as an international amateur free agent in January of 2010. It will pay him $7 million over the life of the contract. The southpaw injured his shoulder before getting into an official game, underwent surgery and later made his debut in High-A ball in 2011. His stuff never fully rebounded, though, and his fastball went from averaging 89-93 mph to working more in the 87-90 mph range.

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The Mets’ farm system rates in the top third of baseball due to a plethora of pitching prospects. In addition to Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Cory Mazzoni in the upper minors, the organization’s Florida State League affiliate has the minor leagues’ best rotation. It features Noah Syndergaard, Domingo Tapia, Luis Mateo (who is on the disabled list with an elbow injury), Michael Fulmer (DL – Meniscus) and Hansel Robles. The Savannah Sand Gnats are stocked with intriguing arms as well. Mike Newman recently discussed Gabriel Ynoa and Rainy Lara with his audience, and I mentioned the resurgence of Steven Matz several weeks ago. Read the rest of this entry »

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Stetson Allie sat, staring at the ground as Rockies farmhand Drew Beuerlein verbally tore into him. Moments before, the 240-pound Allie delivered a glancing blow on a home plate collision, unable to jar the ball loose from the 24-year-old catcher. As teammates took the field, Allie continued to sit as if he’d been shaken up during impact. The pitcher-turned-first-baseman eventually rose to his feet and gingerly took two steps towards the third base dugout before he quickened his pace.

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When the Indians selected Francisco Lindor 8th overall in the 2011 draft, he possessed a high floor and upside. Drafted out of Montverde, Florida, he was an accomplished shortstop but questions about how long it would take his bat to develop surrounded the young Puerto Rican. In his full season, Lindor has put rest to any doubt whether he will be one of the game’s brightest stars. Coming into 2013 he was ranked 20th by Marc Hulet, 9th by my colleagues at Bullpen Banter, and 8th by myself and early returns suggest he has staked his claim on next year’s top spot.

Lindor projects to be an elite defender, if he isn’t already. While not he’s a burner – his time from home to first is consistently a shade below four seconds, great but not excellent for the position – his defensive range can be attributed to the quickness of his first step, not his speed. His ability to covers yards of dirt in a single step is bolstered by his confidence using his backhand on balls hit towards third base. At 19 years old, his instincts actions at shortstop are remarkable making Mike Newman’s nickname for him – “Bruce Lee Lindor” – oddly fitting.

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The Mets boast a quartet of Dominican arms who rank among the top-15 prospects in the organization. Jeurys Familia, Rafael Montero, Luis Mateo and Domingo Tapia are off to strong starts. And with Rainy Lara and Gabriel Ynoa pitching well in Savannah, the core of young, Dominican arms will only continue to grow.

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Another week, another update on the prospects worth knowing — for both good and bad reasons — from around Minor League Baseball…

Tim Berry, LHP, Baltimore: You can’t get drafted any later than the 50th round… in fact, the amateur draft doesn’t even go that long anymore. But that’s where the Orioles found Berry, an up-and-coming prospect in Baltimore’s system. Prior to the 2013 season, I ranked the southpaw as the 12th best prospect in the system and he’s working hard to ascend that ranking.

Berry, 22, has made four starts at the high-A ball level and has accumulated 27 strikeouts in 22.0 innings of work. He’s also walked just four batters and allowed 16 hits. He has solid control and improving command of a repertoire that includes a fastball with average velocity, a solid changeup and a curveball with plus potential. He’s a prospect that definitely deserves some attention.

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Rarely do players successfully transition to more difficult positions, but the Cleveland Indians believe second base prospect Tony Wolters can be the next infielder to be successful converted into a catcher. It’s common for a player to move to a less valuable position when his abilities fall short of major league competency, but occasionally a player will increase his value by moving to a more demanding position. At Florida State University, Buster Posey played third base before permanently moving to catcher. Philadelphia’s backstop Carlos Ruiz was a second baseman before making the switch. Like Posey and Ruiz, the Indians think Wolters can be a starting catcher on a championship caliber team.

Wolters was selected in the third round of the 2010 Rule 4 draft out of Vista, Calif., and signed for $1.35 million, the equivalent of a mid-to-late first round bonus. He’s a grinder — an intense, hard working scrapper who plays above his tools — with a chatty demeanor that fits perfectly behind the plate. As a hitter, Wolters derives surprising power from his quick hands and aggressive line drive swing. When he starts swinging for the fences he isn’t as short to the ball, but generally he stays within himself with a crisp gap-to-gap approach.

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Does Jimmy Nelson have the best pure stuff in the Brewers organization? The answer is yes, or at least that’s what a source who has closely followed the right-handed pitcher’s career told me. And after hearing that, my curiosity was piqued — especially after Nelson faltered in the second half of 2012 and posted a 7.24 BB/9 in his first taste of Double-A.

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The first two-and-a-half weeks of the season have been a struggle for Red Sox prospect Xander Bogaerts. Last year, the shortstop excelled in the Eastern League and earned his place as one of baseball’s elite prospects. But his return to Double-A Portland has been underwhelming thus far. Against New Britain, Bogaerts went 0-for-6 with a strikeout, a walk and a groundball double play. His frustration was palpable. But there were still plenty of positives too.

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Javier Baez, SS, Chicago (NL)

Baez, 20, hit .333 at the low-A ball level in 2012 but he did it while walking just nine times in 57 games. He then finished his injury-shortened season with another 23 games in high-A ball but struggled. His plate issues have continued into 2013 with 18 strikeouts and two walks in 58 at-bats. While his aggressive nature has not helped his batting average, the Puerto Rico native is hitting with authority and eight of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases.

After opening eyes and earning a lot of hype in 17 spring training games (four homers, .298 average), Baez may be dealing with the letdown of shifting from big league camp to A-ball. The immense talent is there for him to be a star and there is no rush for Baez to reach the majors, thanks to the presence of the Cubs’ incumbent shortstop, Starlin Castro.

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Slade Heathcott and Tyler Austin have several things in common. Most notably, they’re among the top prospects in the New York Yankees organization. Both are outfielders with the potential to become elite hitters. Each has an interesting back story.

They are also different. The 21-year-old Austin swings from the right side and came into the season with a .331 average, and 23 home runs, in 593 professional at bats. A 13th-round pick in 2010, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer while in high school. Heathcott is a left-handed hitter who was taken in the first round of the 2009 draft. Hampered by injuries, he has hit .275, with 12 home runs, in 755 at bats. The 22-year-old had a difficult home life and battled alcohol issues as a teenager.

Heathcott and Austin are now teammates with the Double-A Trenton Thunder. They discussed their development as hitters during an early-season visit to Portland. Also weighing in on their development was Trenton hitting coach Justin Turner. Scouting reports on the promising duo were supplied by Al Skorupa.

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Justin Turner on Austin and Heathcott: “Both are extremely talented. They’re natural hitters with extremely quick bat speed. They have good balance. Like any hitters, they have to get good pitches to hit in order for those things to play.

“They’ve both had success. Tyler has a lot more at bats under his belt, even though he’s a [more recent] draft pick. Slade has battled some injuries. He was drafted in 2009 but is still under 1,000 at bats for his career. Slade did really well in the Fall League, which has kind of sped up his learning curve.

“Tyler maybe has a little more advanced approach, because of those extra at bats, but Slade isn’t that far off. They’re like One-A and One-B. You’d be pulling hairs to try to figure out which one is better at this point. They’re exciting young players — the sky is the limit — but they both still need to get at bats.

“It’s tough to compare them as far swing-path types of hitters. They both have the ability to get the ball in the air. They both have power. Tyler’s has played a little more as far as home runs. Pitch selection is a reason — he does a pretty good job of getting good pitches to hit — and that’s priority number one. It’s what we talk about the most. You’re only as good as the pitches you swing at. There are constant reminders to these guys that they need to get good pitches to hit.”

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Slade Heathcott: “There are still things I haven’t locked in exactly, as far as what I want as an approach. Read the rest of this entry »