Archive for Prospect List

Top 32 Prospects: Atlanta Braves

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Atlanta Braves farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Braves Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Dansby Swanson 23 MLB SS 2017 65
2 Ozzie Albies 20 AAA 2B 2018 60
3 Ronald Acuna 19 A CF 2020 55
4 Kolby Allard 19 A LHP 2019 55
5 Kevin Maitan 17 R 3B 2021 55
6 Ian Anderson 18 R RHP 2021 55
7 Max Fried 23 A LHP 2018 55
8 Luiz Gohara 20 A LHP 2019 55
9 Mike Soroka 19 A RHP 2020 50
10 Cristian Pache 18 R CF 2020 50
11 Sean Newcomb 23 AA LHP 2018 50
12 Joey Wentz 19 R LHP 2021 50
13 Touki Touisaint 20 A RHP 2019 45
14 Patrick Weigel 22 AA RHP 2018 45
15 Travis Demeritte 22 A+ 2B 2019 45
16 Kyle Muller 19 R LHP 2020 45
17 Ray-Patrick Didder 22 A OF 2019 45
18 Dustin Peterson 22 AA LF 2018 45
19 Brett Cumberland 21 R C 2019 40
20 A.J. Minter 23 AA LHP 2017 40
21 Drew Harrington 21 R LHP 2019 40
22 Derian Cruz 18 R SS 2021 40
23 Yunior Severino 17 R SS 2022 40
24 Alex Jackson 21 A C 2021 40
25 Rio Ruiz 22 MLB 3B 2017 40
26 Dylan Moore 24 A+ UTIL 2018 40
27 Mauricio Cabrera 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
28 Austin Riley 19 A 3B 2021 40
29 Bryse Wilson 19 R RHP 2020 40
30 Ricardo Sanchez 19 A LHP 2020 40
31 Jonathan Morales 22 A C 2019 40
32 Randy Ventura 19 R RF 2020 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt
Age 23 Height 6’1 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 40/45 60/60 55/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .302/.361/.442 in 145 MLB plate appearances.

Scouting Report
The first-overall pick by Arizona in 2015, Swanson barely played affiliated ball for the Diamondbacks after he was hit in the face by a Yoan Lopez pitch on the backfields in Scottsdale shortly after signing. Swanson, who still wears a face guard on his batting helmet, was traded to Atlanta that December in the Shelby Miller deal.

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Top 13 Prospects: Miami Marlins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Miami Marlins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Marlins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Braxton Garrett 19 R LHP 2019 55
2 Brian Anderson 23 AA 3B 2017 45
3 Tyler Kolek 21 A RHP 2020 45
4 Thomas Jones 19 R OF 2021 45
5 Edward Cabrera 18 R RHP 2021 45
6 Dillon Peters 24 AA LHP 2018 40
7 Jarlin Garcia 24 AA LHP 2017 40
8 Isael Soto 20 A RF 2019 40
9 J.T. Riddle 25 AAA SS 2017 40
10 Cody Poteet 22 A RHP 2019 40
11 Stone Garrett 21 A OF 2019 40
12 Yefri Perez 25 MLB UTIL 2017 40
13 Drew Steckenrider 26 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florence HS (AL)
Age 19 Height 6’3 Weight 190 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
50/50 55/60 40/55 45/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Didn’t pitch during season after signing.

Scouting Report
I had some issues with the effort in Garrett’s delivery during his summer showcase appearances and didn’t think he got out over his front side consistently. By his senior spring, those issues had evaporated and Garrett became one of the better prep arms available in the 2016 draft. He’s an excellent barometer for what a top-15 prep lefty looks like: 90-93 with a plus-flashing curveball and an arm action/athleticism that allows for projection on the command and changeup, both of which Garrett has already shown in spurts.

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Top 33 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Phillies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 J.P. Crawford 22 AAA SS 2017 60
2 Mickey Moniak 18 R OF 2019 55
3 Jorge Alfaro 23 MLB C 2017 55
4 Sixto Sanchez 18 R RHP 2020 45
5 Roman Quinn 23 MLB CF 2017 45
6 Adonis Medina 20 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Elniery Garcia 22 A+ LHP 2017 45
8 Franklyn Kilome 21 A RHP 2020 45
9 Rhys Hoskins 24 AA 1B 2018 45
10 Dylan Cozens 22 AA OF 2018 45
11 Kevin Gowdy 19 R RHP 2020 45
12 Scott Kingery 22 AA 2B 2018 45
13 Nick Williams 23 AAA OF 2017 45
14 Daniel Brito 19 R 2B 2020 40
15 Jhailyn Ortiz 18 R OF 2021 40
16 Drew Anderson 22 A+ RHP 2017 40
17 Bailey Falter 19 A- LHP 2020 40
18 Seranthony Dominguez 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Carlos Tocci 21 A+ CF 2018 40
20 Cornelius Randolph 19 A LF 2020 40
21 Thomas Eshelman 22 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Victor Arano 21 AA RHP 2017 40
23 Andrew Knapp 25 AAA C 2017 40
24 Cole Stobbe 19 R SS 2021 40
25 Mark Appel 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Alberto Tirado 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
27 Nick Pivetta 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
28 Arquimedez Gamboa 19 A- SS 2021 40
29 JoJo Romero 20 A- LHP 2020 40
30 Andrew Pullin 23 AA LF 2018 40
31 Jose Pujols 21 R RF 2020 40
32 Ricardo Pinto 23 AA RHP 2017 40
33 Malquin Canelo 22 A+ SS 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lakewood HS (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 40/45 30/40 50/50 50/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .244/.328/.318 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Scouting Report
Crawford’s lackluster statistical output at Triple-A in 2016 is far less problematic when you accept that his 2015 and 2016 stints at Double-A were embellished by the same hitting environment that has given us Angry Philly Sports Radio hype for Darin Ruf and Matt Rizzotti. I’ve been to Reading a lot and can’t explain what’s going on there; batted balls just keep going until they’re over the wall. This is important to consider throughout the duration of this piece as we have a few hitters on this list who had huge years there at some point, and their statistical output requires context.

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Top 24 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Cardinals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Alex Reyes 22 MLB RHP 2017 65
2 Delvin Perez 18 R SS 2021 55
3 Sandy Alcantara 21 A+ RHP 2018 55
4 Carson Kelly 22 MLB C 2017 50
5 Luke Weaver 23 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Jack Flaherty 21 A+ RHP 2018 50
7 Dakota Hudson 22 A+ RHP 2019 50
8 Eliezer Alvarez 22 A 2B 2019 45
9 Magneuris Sierra 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Edmundo Sosa 20 A+ SS 2019 45
11 Harrison Bader 22 AAA OF 2017 45
12 Junior Fernandez 19 A+ RHP 2018 45
13 Paul DeJong 23 AA 2B 2017 45
14 Jordan Hicks 20 A- RHP 2020 40
15 Austin Gomber 23 AA LHP 2018 40
16 Randy Arozarena 21 AAA UTIL 2018 40
17 Marcos Gonzalez 24 MLB LHP 2017 40
18 Jake Woodford 20 A RHP 2020 40
19 Nick Plummer 20 R OF 2021 40
20 Dylan Carlson 18 R OF 2020 40
21 Andrew Morales 24 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Connor Jones 22 A- RHP 2019 40
23 Zac Gallen 21 R RHP 2019 40
24 John Gant 24 MLB RHP 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

1. Alex Reyes, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republlic
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 45/50 60/60 55/60 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Average fastball velo was 97 mph in big-league appearances.

Scouting Report
The rate at which Reyes missed bats during his 46-inning big-league stint last year is encouraging considering he only turned 22 in August and his repertoire is still relatively amorphous. By now you should know about his fastball, a plus-plus seed that sits in the mid-90s and will crest 100 during relief outings. That velocity arguably allows an already average-to-above changeup play as plus as hitters are geared up for elite velocity only to wave helplessly at a fading 86-91.

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Top 25 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Brewers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Lewis Brinson 22 AAA CF 2017 60
2 Corey Ray 22 A+ OF 2018 60
3 Luis Ortiz 21 AA RHP 2018 55
4 Isan Diaz 20 A 2B 2019 55
5 Josh Hader 22 AAA LHP 2017 55
6 Brandon Woodruff 23 AA RHP 2017 50
7 Lucas Erceg 21 A 3B 2019 50
8 Marcos Diplan 20 A+ RHP 2018 50
9 Trent Clark 20 A OF 2020 45
10 Mauricio Dubon 22 AA SS 2017 45
11 Phil Bickford 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
12 Ryan Cordell 24 AA OF 2017 45
13 Jorge Lopez 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
14 Cody Ponce 22 A+ RHP 2018 45
15 Brett Phillips 22 AA OF 2018 45
16 Monte Harrison 21 A RF 2020 40
17 Gilbert Lara 19 R SS 2021 40
18 Corbin Burnes 22 A RHP 2019 40
19 Kodi Medeiros 20 A+ LHP 2019 40
20 Devin Williams 22 A+ RHP 2018 40
21 Demi Orimoloye 20 R OF 2022 40
22 Jacob Nottingham 21 AA C/1B 2018 40
23 Freddy Peralta 20 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Mario Feliciano 18 R C 2021 40
25 Damien Magnifico 25 MLB RHP 2017 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Coral Springs HS (FL)
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 50/60 60/60 50/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .382/.387/.618 at Triple-A Colorado Springs after trade.

Scouting Report
A physical freak who has undergone a half-decade of physical growth and mechanical adjustments to reach the doorstep of the majors, Brinson headlined the package sent to Milwaukee for Jonathan Lucroy ahead of the trade deadline. He had been struggling through the first few months of the season and missed several weeks with a shoulder injury. Injuries have been a prevalent aspect of Brinson’s pro career and he’s missed substantial playing time during each of the last three years with various ailments, including quad and hamstring issues.

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Top 23 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Cubs Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Eloy Jimenez 20 A OF 2019 60
2 Ian Happ 22 AA 2B 2018 55
3 Oscar De La Cruz 21 A RHP 2019 50
4 Jeimer Candelario 23 MLB 1B 2017 50
5 Jose Albertos 18 R RHP 2020 45
6 Albert Almora 22 MLB CF 2017 45
7 Dylan Cease 21 A- RHP 2019 45
8 Trevor Clifton 21 A+ RHP 2018 45
9 Mark Zagunis 23 AAA OF 2017 45
10 Jose Rosario 26 AAA RHP 2017 45
11 DJ Wilson 20 A- OF 2020 40
12 Eddie Martinez 21 A OF 2019 40
13 Aramis Ademan 18 R SS 2020 40
14 Victor Caratini 23 AA C/1B 2017 40
15 Felix Pena 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Thomas Hatch 22 R RHP 2018 40
17 Isaac Paredes 17 R INF 2022 40
18 Chesny Young 24 AA INF 2018 40
19 Donnie Dewees 23 A+ LF 2018 40
20 Jose Paulino 21 A LHP 2019 40
21 Bryan Hudson 19 A- LHP 2022 40
22 Duane Underwood 22 AA RHP 2018 40
23 Bailey Clark 22 A- RHP 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’4 Weight 235 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 70/80 50/70 45/40 45/50 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded .204 ISO in full-season ball at age 19.

Scouting Report
Jimenez has perhaps the most explosive raw power projection in the minors. When he debuted in the states it was clear his broad-shouldered, 6-foot-4 frame would one day fill out and yield all kinds of crazy power. (He already had at least 55 raw at age 18.) That said, I didn’t expect so much of it to come before Jimenez turned 20. Even when he took batting practice alongside some of the other more prodigious power prospects in the game (Dylan Cozens and Christin Stewart, to name two) at the Futures Game and at Fall Stars, Eloy’s power stood head and shoulders above everyone else’s. Not only does he hit blasts in BP that threaten to enter geocentric orbit but low-lying line drives that, if they don’t clear the wall, seem likely to blast through it.

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Top 21 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Meadows 21 AAA OF 2017 65
2 Tyler Glasnow 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Mitch Keller 20 A+ RHP 2019 55
4 Josh Bell 24 MLB 1B 2017 55
5 Kevin Newman 23 AA SS 2018 50
6 Ke’Bryan Hayes 19 A 3B 2020 50
7 Cole Tucker 20 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Steven Brault 24 MLB LHP 2017 45
9 Will Craig 22 A- DH 2019 45
10 Alen Hanson 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
11 Nick Kingham 25 AAA RHP 2017 45
12 Elias Diaz 26 MLB C 2017 40
13 Taylor Hearn 22 A LHP 2020 40
14 Gage Hinsz 20 A RHP 2020 40
15 Trevor Williams 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Clay Holmes 23 AA RHP 2017 40
17 Luis Escobar 20 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Travis Macgregor 19 R RHP 2020 40
19 Edgar Santana 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
20 Stephen Alemais 21 A SS 2020 40
21 Braeden Ogle 19 R LHP 2022 40

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Grayson HS (GA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 195 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 55/60 45/60 60/55 40/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .266/.333/.536 between Double- and Triple-A as a 21-year-old.

Scouting Report
Meadows dominated Double-A for 45 games before receiving a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Soon after that, he spent a month on the DL with a hamstring injury, the third one with which Meadows has dealt in as many years (he had reoccurring hammy issues in 2014) and never got things going after he returned, slashing .214/.297/.460. Even so, that’s not alarming in any way for a 21-year-old, especially in a small sample.

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Top 32 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Reds Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Senzel 21 A 3B 2018 55
2 Amir Garrett 24 AAA LHP 2017 55
3 Jesse Winker 23 AAA OF 2017 50
4 Aristides Aquino 22 A+ OF 2019 50
5 Shedric Long 21 A+ 2B 2019 50
6 Taylor Trammell 19 R OF 2021 45
7 Robert Stephenson 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
8 Chris Okey 22 A C 2019 45
9 T.J. Friedl 21 R CF 2019 45
10 Luis Castillo 24 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Tyler Stephenson 20 A C 2020 45
12 Alfredo Rodriguez 22 R SS 2018 45
13 Rookie Davis 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
14 Phil Ervin 24 AA OF 2017 45
15 Sal Romano 23 AA RHP 2018 45
16 Tyler Mahle 22 AA RHP 2018 45
17 Keury Mella 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
18 Ariel Hernandez 24 R RHP 2017 40
19 Sebastian Elizalde 25 AAA OF 2018 40
20 Vlad Gutierrez 21 R RHP 2019 40
21 Tony Santillan 19 A RHP 2020 40
22 Austin Brice 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
23 Jimmy Herget 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
24 Blake Trahan 23 A+ SS 2019 40
25 Nick Travieso 22 AA RHP 2018 40
26 Ian Kahaloa 19 R RHP 2021 40
27 Juan Perez 25 R UTIL 2017 40
28 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
29 Alex Blandino 24 AA 2B 2018 40
30 Tanner Rainey 24 A RHP 2018 40
31 Nick Hanson 18 R RHP 2022 40
32 Ryan Hendrix 22 A RHP 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee
Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/60 40/55 55/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86% clip.

Scouting Report
A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome, Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake. Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

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Top 19 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Detroit Tigers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Manning 18 R RHP 2020 55
2 Christin Stewart 23 AA OF 2018 50
3 Beau Burrows 20 A RHP 2020 45
4 Tyler Alexander 22 AA LHP 2018 45
5 Michael Gerber 24 AA OF 2018 45
6 Joe Jimenez 21 AAA RHP 2017 45
7 Dixon Machado 24 MLB SS 2017 45
8 Derek Hill 20 A OF 2021 40
9 Jose Azocar 20 A OF 2020 40
10 Kyle Funkhouser 22 A- RHP 2019 40
11 Jacoby Jones 24 MLB OF 2017 40
12 Adam Ravenelle 24 AA RHP 2017 40
13 Gerson Moreno 21 A+ RHP 2019 40
14 Sandy Baez 23 A RHP 2019 40
15 Hector Martinez 20 R SS 2021 40
16 Arvicent Perez 22 A C 2020 40
17 Kevin Ziomek 24 A+ LHP 2018 40
18 Spencer Turnbull 24 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 A.J. Simcox 22 A+ SS 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Sheldon HS (CA)
Age 19 Height 6’6 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 30/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded 46 recorded in 29 pro innings.

Scouting Report
Manning is the prototypical prep righty. He has tremendous size, throws hard, is a terrific athlete (he was committed to Loyola Marymount to play baseball and basketball) with great bloodlines (his father played in the NBA) and has exhibited a nascent feel for a potentially dominant curveball. Any high-school pitcher cooking with that list of ingredients is a slam-dunk first-round pick, and Manning was clearly the second-best high-school righty in the 2016 draft.

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Top 20 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Kansas City Royals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Royals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Matt Strahm 25 MLB LHP 2017 55
2 Hunter Dozier 25 MLB 3B 2017 50
3 Josh Staumont 22 AA RHP 2018 45
4 Ryan O’Hearn 23 AA 1B 2018 45
5 Scott Blewett 20 A RHP 2020 45
6 A.J. Puckett 21 A RHP 2019 45
7 Khalil Lee 18 R OF 2021 45
8 Eric Skoglund 24 AA LHP 2017 45
9 Meibrys Viloria 19 R C 2020 45
10 Jorge Bonifacio 23 AAA OF 2017 45
11 Seuly Matias 18 R OF 2021 40
12 Nolan Watson 19 A RHP 2020 40
13 Jake Junis 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
14 Kyle Zimmer 25 AA RHP 2019 40
15 Samir Duenez 20 AA 1B 2019 40
16 Chase Vallot 20 A C 2020 40
17 Miguel Almonte 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
18 Garrett Davila 19 R LHP 2019 40
19 Jeison Guzman 18 R SS 2021 40
20 Nicky Lopez 21 R SS 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Matt Strahm, LHP
Drafted: 21st Round, 2012 from Neosho CCC (KS)
Age 25 Height 6’4 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 60/70 45/50 50/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 30 strikeouts in 22 big-league innings.

Scouting Report
Strahm saw a 148% uptick in innings as a sophomore at Neosho CC in 2012 and pitched complete games in 11 of his 14 starts (though many of them were not a full nine innings). Strahm dominated and his stuff ticked up as the year went along. (All told, Strahm added almost 15 mph to his fastball between his senior year of high school and his sophomore year of JUCO.) Nevertheless, he lasted until the 21st round of June’s draft. He began experiencing discomfort in his elbow during the 2012 offseason and was misdiagnosed with a stress reaction when in fact he needed Tommy John, which he ultimately received in the summer of 2013. He missed all of 2014 recovering.

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Top 27 Prospects: Chicago White Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Chicago White Sox farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

White Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Yoan Moncada 21 MLB INF 2017 70
2 Lucas Giolito 22 MLB RHP 2017 60
3 Michael Kopech 20 A+ RHP 2019 55
4 Reynaldo Lopez 22 MLB RHP 2017 55
5 Zack Collins 21 A+ C 2018 50
6 Carson Fulmer 22 MLB RHP 2017 50
7 Zack Burdi 21 AAA RHP 2017 50
8 Alec Hansen 22 A RHP 2020 45
9 Spencer Adams 20 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Dane Dunning 22 A- RHP 2018 45
11 Luis Alexander Basabe 20 A+ CF 2020 40
12 Jordan Stephens 24 A+ RHP 2019 40
13 Charlie Tilson 23 MLB OF 2017 40
14 Jameson Fisher 22 R LF 2019 40
15 Bernardo Flores 21 R LHP 2020 40
16 Alex Call 22 A OF 2020 40
17 Trey Michalczewski 21 AA 3B 2019 40
18 Jake Peter 23 AAA INF 2017 40
19 Luis Martinez 21 R RHP 2020 40
20 Adam Engel 24 AAA CF 2017 40
21 Luis Curbelo 19 R 3B 2021 40
22 Jacob May 24 AAA CF 2017 40
23 Michael Ynoa 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
24 Brian Clark 23 AAA LHP 2017 40
25 Jordan Guerrero 22 AA LHP 2019 40
26 Chris Beck 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
27 Tyler Danish 22 MLB RHP 2017 40

70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, null from Cuba
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 205 Bat/Throw B/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/60 60/60 40/60 70/70 40/50 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
31% K% in 207 Triple-A plate appearances

Scouting Report
I believe Yoan Moncada to be the best prospect in all of baseball despite his swing-and-miss issues, though I understand why many are concerned about them and acknowledge they exist as does some element of risk with Moncada’s overall profile. But from a tools standpoint, this is a generational talent who possesses perhaps the most robust collection of skills in the minor leagues.

Moncada has an SEC running back’s body at an athletic and strong 6-foot-2, 205 pounds. There are very few, if any, comparable physiques across baseball. He’s also a plus-plus runner, both from home to first and on the bases, scattering large swaths of dirt behind him as he traverses the bases. I think Moncada is going to retain that speed for quite a while despite already appearing to have maxed out physically. Even if he does lose a step with age (and it will probably happen at some point), I expect Moncada to retain impact plus speed into his late 20s or early 30s, even if he’s no longer an elite runner at peak.

That speed is going to give Chicago some room to consider Moncada’s defensive options. His performance at second base was mixed throughout his tenure with Boston. He certainly has the physical capability to play the position easily. His range and arm strength (an easy 70 on the scouting scale) are both more than enough to play anywhere on the infield, but his work around the bag, general defensive footwork, and sometimes awkward arm action have all led to some inexcusable miscues that most scouts hope will be ironed out with time and reps.

Moncada is now 21 and some of those defensive hiccups were prevalent throughout his tenure in the Arizona Fall League, where Moncada continued his late-season transition to third base. I believe, with time and instruction, that he’ll be fine at either second or third, though some scouts are less enamored of his feel for the infield and would like to see him tried in center field, where he has the raw physical ability to be a plus defender. A source with Chicago told me the current plan is to have him begin next season at second base.

Regardless of where Moncada ends up on the defensive spectrum, his offensive capabilities are going to profile there. He generates plus-plus bat speed from the left side and is able to hit for opposite-field power despite a swing geared for low-ball contact, something I don’t recall seeing from a prospect before. His bat control is mediocre right now, and I think this is part of why he has struck out so much (30% of the time at Triple-A, 60% in a short big-league stint) during his career. Moncada’s swing from the right side is more conservative, a bit more stiff than his cut from the left side, and lacks big extension. He’s more strength than bat speed as a right-handed hitter but still has plus raw power from that side.

Even with a worse-than-average strikeout rate factored into his hit tool’s grade, I think Moncada is a future plus hitter because, when he does connect, he’s vaporizing baseballs into play and his career-long BABIP and ISO are evidence of that. I think it’s reasonable to say Moncada’s career BABIP rate will rest, at the very least, comfortably above the league-average .300 mark when you factor in his speed and the quality of contact he makes when he does connect.

Moncada is not a finished product, but the raw material is the most impressive in baseball. I think with time he’ll be one of baseball’s best players.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 14.0 WAR

yoan-moncada-likelihood-of-outcomes

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Harvard Westlake (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 255 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 30/40 60/70 45/50 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Was either promoted to MLB or shuttled to another level of the minors 8 different times throughout 2016

Scouting Report
The once Prodigious Lucas Giolito has more recently become the Enigmatic Lucas Giolito. While he remains one of baseball’s best pitching prospects after an inconsistent 2016, Giolito is no longer head-and-shoulders the game’s best. The opinions of scouts who saw Giolito this year make for an interesting collage of hope, fear, tempered expectations and patience, but all agree that front-end starter upside is still extant, if a bit less likely.

That kind of upside has been apparent since Giolito’s days at Harvard-Westlake, where, before suffering a season-ending elbow injury that would later require Tommy John surgery, he was generating potential 1-1 buzz and had a legitimate chance to become the first right-handed high-school pitcher ever taken with the draft’s first pick.

Giolito was bumping 100 with his fastball at the time. Of course, many high-school pitchers lose velocity in pro ball after being subjected to increased season-long workloads and fewer off days. Despite the occasional 98-plus from Giolito, he generally sat 93-97 in pro looks before the end of 2016 when, even out of the bullpen, he was sitting 92-94 and merely touching 96.

That’s still plus velocity, and some scouts who saw Giolito later in the year noted an increase in sink/run on his fastball and thought that maybe an increased usage of the two-seamer had led to a minor dip in velo. However, Giolito’s big-league fastball spin rate (a below-average 2000 rpm) showed almost no change between his mid-year debut and his September appearances.

It would make sense for Washington to have explored some fastball variation because, even in the minors, Giolito’s heater wasn’t missing many bats. It has grounder-inducing plane, a product of Giolito’s functionally vertical arm slot, but lacks consistent horizontal movement, only showing it regularly when Giolito is running the ball off the hip of left-handed hitters. Giolito’s tendency to work up in the zone with a fastball that features very little spin has been detrimental. If he can more readily work down in the zone (this could unlocked with a mechanical tweak, something for which some have advocated even without this in mind, because they don’t love the delivery from a health standpoint, especially given the medical history here), the fastball will play as plus.

Giolito’s out pitch is his curveball, a low-80s hammer with more depth than Jacques Cousteau could handle. It’s easily a plus pitch right now and is frequently a 70 on the scouting scale. You could argue it projects to an 80 if Giolito learns how to locate it just beneath the strike zone with regularity and can throw it for strikes without sacrificing arm speed (he decelerates when he’s getting the curve over for strikes right now). Despite a pretty long arm action, Giolito has a solid changeup. He sells it with his fastball’s arm speed, and he has decent feel for movement. It’s consistently average right now and projects above. I think there’s less changeup projection here than there would be with other arms this talented and young (Giolito is only 22) because of the length of the arm action.

Late in the year, Giolito was also working with a below-average slider in the 83-85 range that had very inconsistent shape and bite. It’s hard to say if we’ll see the slider next year, as many — correctly, it would seem — think Chicago should prioritize the development of Giolito’s command rather than have him worrying about a fourth pitch.

Indeed the control/command profile is the most impactful variable associated with Giolito’s future. When locating, Giolito is positively lethal. He often isn’t locating, however, and we’ll need to see a full grade’s worth of progression on the command/control if Giolito is to even remain a starter. Of course, if the command ever comes — especially if it supersedes my projection and allows his stuff to play — then will be a top-of-the-rotation arm. The medical history, drop in velo and command all contribute to the risk profile.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mt Pleasant HS (TX)
Age 21 Height 6’3 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command
70/70 50/60 45/60 30/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
40% K% in 11 starts at Hi-A

Scouting Report
I saw Kopech several times during the Arizona Fall League (to which he was sent after dealing with injuries this season), and he’s an incredible physical specimen with some of the most exceptional raw talent of any pitcher in the minor leagues. During my looks at Kopech this fall, he sat 96-100, touching 101 with some of the most incredible arm acceleration I’ve ever seen from a pitching prospect. His arm action is explosive, though not always well timed, and his arm sometimes is finishing its part of the delivery before the rest of his body is.

The overall timing and inconsistent pacing of Kopech’s delivery are what I believe to be the chief cause of his strike-throwing inconsistency to this point, though he sometimes lands off line relative to the plate as well. Despite some effort to the delivery (he throws 100, there’s going to be some effort), there are no real mechanical red flags that indicate long-term strike-throwing issues, no overly violent delivery that seems impossible to iron out. Even if Kopech’s velocity backs down to the 94-98 range under a full-season workload, the fact that he could conceivably command that kind of velocity is kind of terrifying.

Kopech’s secondaries are raw but promising. He has poor feel for locating his slider right now, but the pitch flashes plus in the 86-90 mph range and has atypical two-plane movement for a pitch at that velocity when he’s locating down and to his glove side. It projects to plus. His changeup, 91-93 in my viewings, flashes above average despite essentially being an average fastball, because hitters are geared up for 96-plus and see arm speed that indicates that sort of velo out of Kopech’s hand. It also projects to plus and could end up being Kopech’s best pitch.

There’s obviously a non-zero chance that Kopech, despite his athleticism and young age, never throws enough strikes to start; many scouts with whom I’ve spoken think he ends up in a bullpen, where he’d be a high-octane freak. His off-field issues concern scouts, too. Kopech lost six weeks of his season after fracturing his hand in a March fight with a teammate and missed 50 games in 2015 due to an amphetamine suspension. He carries a bit more risk than a pitching prospect of this caliber otherwise would, which is already a substantial amount of risk due to the velo. I think the ceiling here is that of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 7.7 WAR

michael-kopech-likelihood-of-outcomes

50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 23 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 55/60 40/50 45/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
42 K’s, 22 BB’s in 44 big league innings

Scouting Report
Also included in the Adam Eaton deal wass fireballing righty Reynaldo Lopez, who has also touched 100 with his fastball during his pro career. Lopez’s viability as a starter has also been questioned due to his size, delivery and command. I think he has a decent chance to remain a starter. Despite measuring in at an even 6-feet, he’s built well, especially in the torso, and has made a concerted effort to stay strong after losing almost all of his 2013 season to a dead arm. He has great arm acceleration and fairly safe arm action, especially for an undersized pitcher with a fastball in the 94-98 range. There’s some skepticism about the lower half’s strength and its involvement in Lopez’s delivery. His finish can be unbalanced, and his delivery is more driven by his hips than a combination of rotation and push off the mound, which causes him to throw across his body.

Some scouts don’t like the way the delivery impacts the command and others think it’s a harbinger of medical doom. Lopez doesn’t operate like four seaming surgeon but at least lives in and around the strike zone and his stuff is good enough to allow for some margin of error when he misses his spots. I’m less concerned about him throwing an acceptable number of strikes (he’s never had a high walk rate) than I am about his future ability to stay healthy, though I’ll acknowledge scouting deliveries and trying gauge injury likelihood is an exercise in futility.

Lopez’s stuff plays as a starter, too. His curveball, a slurvy 78-81 mph offering, is above average and projects to plus — though it was a 45/50 for me at the Futures Game, where Lopez wasn’t really getting on top of it very well — and Lopez can consistently locate it to his glove side, away from where hitters can touch it. He’s already using it effectively as a weapon down and in against left-handed hitters.

His upper-80s changeup has barely been worked into his repertoire and is below average. I have it projected aggressively to average because of Lopez’s arm speed, though you could argue the arm action limits it to a half grade short of that.

I think Lopez has No. 3-starter upside and, having already debuted in the majors, a relatively modest risk profile despite some dissent about his viability as a starter. That risk profile includes the concerns about the delivery that, coupled with a chance the MLB hitters adjust to his somewhat wild approach to pitching, might limit his ability to eat innings and accumulate value.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Miami
Age 22 Height 6’3 Weight 220 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 40/60 30/20 40/45 50/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Posted .544 OBP at Miami in 2016.

Scouting Report
A trusted scout has repeated to me ad nauseum that context is an essential variable to consider when evaluating catchers, particularly those who have played long seasons. Collins looked bad behind the plate in the Fall League. He was slow, immobile, and had issues receiving the ball. He was also wrapping up a season that had begun in February and included 66% more games than he’d played at Miami as a sophomore — all while catching an entirely new staff of pitchers. As such, it seems prudent to ingest what we saw in the AFL with a pillar of salt and lean more heavily on what amateur scouts saw from him this spring.

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Top 18 Prospects: Cleveland Indians

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cleveland Indians farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Indians Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Francisco Mejia 21 A+ C 2019 55
2 Brad Zimmer 23 AAA CF 2018 55
3 Triston McKenzie 19 A RHP 2020 55
4 Greg Allen 23 AA OF 2018 50
5 Bobby Bradley 20 A+ 1B 2019 45
6 Will Benson 18 R OF 2021 45
7 Nolan Jones 18 R 3B 2020 45
8 Erik Gonzalez 25 MLB UTIL 2017 45
9 Yu Chang 21 A+ INF 2019 45
10 Brady Aiken 20 A- LHP 2020 45
11 Juan Hillman 19 A- LHP 2020 45
12 Yandy Diaz 25 AAA 3B 2017 45
13 Anthony Santander 22 A+ 1B/OF 2019 40
14 Rob Kaminsky 22 AA LHP 2018 40
15 Gabriel Mejia 21 A- CF 2021 40
16 Shawn Armstrong 26 MLB RHP 2017 40
17 Willi Castro 19 A SS 2020 40
18 Mark Mathias 22 A+ 2B 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 175 Bat/Throw S/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 50/55 30/45 50/40 40/50 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .333/.379/.500 as a left-hander in 2016, .359/.390/.542 as right-hander.

Scouting Report
Arguably the best catching prospect in all of baseball, Mejia’s prodigious arm strength and bat-to-ball ability give him the raw physical material to impact the game in a variety of ways. A switch-hitter, Mejia has fantastic bat control from both sides of the plate and tracks pitches well. He has plus bat speed and, except for the occasional rash of overswinging, generates it with little effort. As a right-handed hitter, Mejia hits to all fields. He’s more pull-heavy as a left-handed hitter but is better at creating airborne contact from that side. Mejia’s strikeout rate has fallen as he’s risen up the minor-league ladder. I have a future 70 on the hit tool.

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Top 24 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nick Gordon 21 A+ SS 2019 55
2 Alex Kirilloff 19 R OF 2021 50
3 Stephen Gonsalves 22 AA LHP 2017 50
4 Tyler Jay 22 AA LHP 2018 50
5 Adalberto Mejia 23 MLB LHP 2017 45
6 Wander Javier 17 R SS 2022 45
7 Fernando Romero 21 A+ RHP 2018 45
8 Kohl Stewart 22 AA RHP 2019 45
9 Ben Rortvedt 19 R C 2021 45
10 Mitch Garver 25 AAA C 2017 45
11 Daniel Palka 25 AAA OF 2017 40
12 Zack Granite 24 AA CF 2018 40
13 Lewis Thorpe 20 A LHP 2020 40
14 Travis Blankenhorn 20 A 3B 2020 40
15 J.T. Chargois 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
16 Nick Burdi 23 AA RHP 2018 40
17 Jake Reed 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
18 Trevor Hildenberger 25 AA RHP 2017 40
19 Lewin Diaz 20 R 1B 2021 40
20 Lamonte Wade 22 A+ OF 2018 40
21 Felix Jorge 22 AA RHP 2018 40
22 Huascar Ynoa 18 R RHP 2021 40
23 Akil Baddoo 18 R OF 2022 40
24 Lachlan Wells 19 A LHP 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL)
Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 175 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 40/45 20/40 50/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .291/.335/.386 in Florida State League in 2016. Also saved 11 runs at shortstop, per Clay Davenport.

Scouting Report
Gordon was one of this decade’s most heavily scouted high schoolers, leaving evaluators extremely comfortable with his skill set and big-league prospects despite a lack of big tools. Scouts, who were obviously aware of Gordon’s parentage, began seeing a lot of him as a freshman when they were scouting Olympia High School senior outfielder Jesse Winker. Gordon was also a regular at all-star games and showcases throughout his high-school career. After four years, teams saw Gordon as a likely, but unexceptional defensive shortstop who would hit for average and maybe grow into some power as he approached his peak.

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Top 24 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Colorado Rockies farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 20 A SS 2019 60
2 Riley Pint 19 R RHP 2020 55
3 Jeff Hoffman 23 MLB RHP 2016 55
4 German Marquez 21 MLB RHP 2016 55
5 Raimel Tapia 22 MLB CF 2016 50
6 Kyle Freeland 23 AAA LHP 2017 50
7 Pedro Gonzalez 19 R CF 2020 45
8 Miguel Castro 21 MLB RHP 2015 45
9 Tom Murphy 25 MLB C 2015 45
10 Forrest Wall 20 A+ 2B/OF 2019 45
11 Ryan Castellani 20 A+ RHP 2019 45
12 Ben Bowden 22 A LHP 2018 45
13 Yency Almonte 22 AA RHP 2018 45
14 Pete Lambert 19 A RHP 2021 40
15 Ryan McMahon 21 AA 1B 2018 40
 16 Sam Howard 23 AA LHP 2017 45
17 Tyler Nevin 19 A- 3B 2021 40
18 Dom Nunez 21 A+ C 2020 40
19 Robert Tyler 21 A- RHP 2020 40
20 Colton Welker 19 R 1B/3B 2021 40
21 Daniel Montano 17 R CF 2022 40
22 Garrett Hampson 22 A- SS 2019 40
23 Julian Fernandez 20 A- RHP 2020 40
24 Jordan Patterson 24 MLB OF/1B 2016 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL)
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 55/60 40/55 50/45 40/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded .199 ISO in Low-A.

Scouting Report
Some amateur evaluators thought Rodgers, the top prep talent in the 2015 draft, was the best overall prospect in the class because they liked his chances to stay at shortstop and eventually hit for more power than Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman. While the other two have already made their big-league debuts, Rodgers has hit well as a young regular for two pro seasons while maintaining (and, in 2016, improving) a body some thought would fill out and require a move to third base.

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Top 21 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Dodgers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Yadier Alvarez 20 A RHP 2019 60
2 Cody Bellinger 21 AA 1B 2017 60
3 Alex Verdugo 20 AA CF 2017 55
4 Jose DeLeon 24 MLB RHP 2016 55
5 Walker Buehler 22 A RHP 2017 50
6 Willie Calhoun 22 AA 2B 2018 50
7 Brock Stewart 25 MLB RHP 2016 45
8 Andrew Toles 24 MLB CF 2016 45
9 Yusniel Diaz 20 A+ CF 2019 45
10 Jordan Sheffield 21 A RHP 2018 45
11 Austin Barnes 26 MLB UTIL 2017 45
12 Gavin Lux 18 R SS 2021 45
13 Keibert Ruiz 18 R C 2020 45
14 Will Smith 21 R C 2019 45
15 Mitch White 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
16 Starling Heredia 17 R OF 2021 40
17 Imani Abdullah 19 A RHP 2021 40
18 D.J. Peters 20 R OF 2020 40
19 Yaisel Sierra 25 AA RHP 2017 40
20 Omar Estevez 18 A 2B 2020 40
21 Dustin May 19 R RHP 2021 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba
Age 21 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/60 40/50 40/60 40/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 34.6% strikeout and 6.9% walk rate at Low-A.

Scouting Report
The ease with which Yadier Alvarez delivers 100 mph fastballs is as unsettling as it is beautiful. Triple-digit fastballs are becoming more common but they usually involve significant visible effort. Alvarez throws 95-plus and looks like he’s settling down to take a nap. He’ll touch 101 and generally sits 96-99 and 94-97 later in starts. His fastball command is below average, as Alvarez has issues maintaining his delivery’s timing and struggles to get on top of his fastball consistently. But the grace in the delivery and Alvarez’s overall athleticism point toward significant development in this area and there are signs that it’s already begun to come. Alvarez cut his walk rate in half after moving from the Arizona League to the Midwest League while his strikeout rate held firm. Scouts who saw him late in the year complimented his ability to throw strikes, something he wasn’t doing consistently as late as June.

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Prospect Reports: San Diego Padres

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Padres Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Anderson Espinoza 18 A RHP 2019 60
2 Manny Margot 22 MLB CF 2017 55
3 Cal Quantrill 21 A RHP 2018 55
4 Hunter Renfroe 24 MLB OF 2016 50
5 Adrian Morejon 18 R LHP 2020 50
6 Fernando Tatis, Jr. 17 A- 3B 2021 50
7 Jacob Nix 20 A RHP 2019 50
8 Chris Paddack 20 A RHP 2020 45
9 Jeisson Rosario 17 R OF 2021 45
10 Logan Allen 19 A LHP 2020 45
11 Carlos Asuaje 24 MLB 2B 2017 45
12 Luis Urias 19 A+ 2B 2018 45
13 Gabriel Arias 16 R SS 2021 45
14 Jorge Ona 19 R OF 2019 45
15 Mason Thompson 18 R RHP 2021 45
16 Reggie Lawson 19 R RHP 2021 45
17 Luis Almanzar 17 R SS 2021 45
18 Eric Lauer 21 A LHP 2019 45
19 Hudson Potts 18 A- 3B 2020 45
20 Jose Rondon 22 MLB SS 2017 45
21 Michael Gettys 21 A+ CF 2019 40
22 Phil Maton 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
23 Michel Miliano 16 R RHP 2022 40
24 Enyel De Los Santos 20 A+ RHP 2020 40
25 Dinelson Lamet 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
26 Josh Naylor 19 A+ 1B 2020 40
27 Buddy Reed 21 R CF 2019 40
28 Nick Torres 23 AAA OF 2018 40
29 Austin Allen 22 A C 2019 40
30 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40
31 Hansel Rodriguez 19 A- RHP 2020 40
32 Yimmi Brasoban 22 AA RHP 2018 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela
Age 19 Height 6’0 Weight 160 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/70 50/70 50/70 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded just 5.6% walk rate after trade to San Diego.

Scouting Report
Espinoza got a $1.8 million bonus in 2014 despite his diminutive stature because, despite a lack of height, his arm worked incredibly well and he already showed terrific feel for spin. He was unhittable in the GCL when he debuted stateside, allowing just three earned runs in 40 innings there. He wasn’t as dominant in 2016 and reports of his stuff and performance were a little inconsistent, after he was traded to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but this was an 18-year-old dealing with severance from the organization that changed his life and his peripherals were good despite inflated ERAs. By the time instructional league arrived, things had come together and Espinoza was arguably the best pitching prospect throwing during instructs in either Arizona or Florida. He was 95-97 with movement in an abbreviated final instructional-league outing and flashed a plus-plus curveball.

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Prospect Reports: San Francisco Giants

BBelow is an analysis of the prospects in the San Francisco Giants farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Christian Arroyo 21 AA 3B 2017 55
2 Tyler Beede 23 AA RHP 2018 50
3 Bryan Reynolds 21 A OF 2019 50
4 Ty Blach 26 MLB LHP 2016 45
5 Andrew Suarez 24 AA LHP 2018 45
6 Steven Okert 25 MLB LHP 2016 45
7 Joan Gregorio 24 AAA RHP 2017 45
8 Sandro Fabian 18 R OF 2020 45
9 Chris Stratton 26 MLB RHP 2016 45
10 Matt Krook 22 A- LHP 2019 40
11 Chris Shaw 23 AA 1B 2019 40
12 Jordan Johnson 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
13 Heath Quin 21 A+ OF 2019 40
14 Steven Duggar 22 AA OF 2017 40
15 Dan Slania 24 AA RHP 2017 40
16 C.J. Hinojosa 22 AA SS 2019 40
17 Reyes Moronta 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
18 Melvin Adon 22 A- RHP 2020 40
19 Jalen Miller 19 A 2B 2020 40
20 Garrett Williams 22 A- LHP 2019 40
21 Sam Coonrod 24 AA RHP 2018 40

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Hernando HS (FL)
Age 22 Height 5’11 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/70 40/40 30/40 40/40 45/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .224/.278/.294 at home in 2016, .315/.348/.438 on the road. Worth +11 runs at combination of shortstop and third base this year per Clay Davenport

Scouting Report
Arroyo was viewed as a bit of a reach when he was drafted because he was already very likely to move off of shortstop and quite unlikely to develop prototypical, corner-worthy power. Some scouts wanted to give him a try behind the plate because it was the only place they thought his bat would profile. While scouts were right about Arroyo’s power projection, it may prove less relevant to his future than originally anticipated because his feel to hit compensates so well for it.

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Prospect Reports: Arizona Diamondbacks

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DETKC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATLMIA, NYMPHI)

Diamondbacks Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Anthony Banda 23 AAA LHP 2017 50
2 Socrates Brito 24 MLB OF 2016 45
3 Mitch Haniger 25 MLB OF 2016 45
4 Jasrado Chisholm 18 R SS 2020 45
5 Domingo Leyba 21 AA 2B 2018 40
6 Anfernee Grier 21 A- CF 2019 40
7 Taylor Clarke 23 AA RHP 2018 40
8 Alex Young 23 A+ LHP 2018 40
9 Wei-Chieh Huang 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
10 Dawel Lugo 21 AA 3B 2018 40
11 Jon Duplantier 22 A- RHP 2019 40
12 Andy Yerzy 18 R C 2021 40
13 Matt Koch 25 MLB RHP 2016 40
14 Vicente Campos 24 MLB RHP 2016 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 10th Round, 2012 from San Jacinto
Age 23 Height 6’3 Weight 175 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 55/55 45/50 40/50

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Strikeout rate dropped from 17% to 13% after promotion to Triple-A, while walk rate held steady at 8.5%.

Scouting Report
The Diamondbacks drafted Banda out of high school in 2011. He didn’t sign, though, and then matriculated to JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto in Houston. The Brewers drafted and signed him the next year and Banda spent two years struggling in Rookie-level ball before the Diamondbacks acquired him in the Gerardo Parra deal (along with Mitch Haniger) in July of 2014. Banda took off after that, went to the Futures Game this year and had success at Triple-A in the hitter-friendly environs of Reno.

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An Improved KATOH Top-100 List

Back in January, I made some tweaks to my KATOH projection system, and have been using that updated model for the past several months. That model was unquestionably better than the previous versions, but it left me unsatisfied. While it addressed many of the flaws from previous iterations, there was still a lot of information it wasn’t taking into account.

I’ve been plugging away behind the scenes, and finally have a new version KATOH to share with the world. In what follows, you’ll find some detail on the new model, including its notable updates. I’ll be using this model in all of my prospect analysis from this point forward. Below, you’ll find a quick run-through of the notable tweaks, followed by an updated top-100 list.

*****

Added Features

Choosing projection window based on level, rather than age

In my previous model, I projected out based on a player’s age. If a player were 22, I projected him through age 28; If he were 24, I projected through age 30. This resulted in KATOH undervaluing players who were old for their level. The goal of KATOH is to predict the value a player will generate during his six-plus years of team control. By projecting a 22-year-old through age 28, KATOH failed to capture some of that value in cases where the 22-year-old was still in A-ball.

This time around, I chose my windows based on level, rather than age. I projected the next six seasons for players in Triple-A. I did the next seven for players in Double-A, eight for A-ballers, and nine for Rookie ballers.

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KATOH Projects: Super Deep Sleeper Prospects

There’s a lot of info out there on a lot of prospects these days. Lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth has published detailed organizational lists for all 30 teams that typically run more than 30 deep. Similarly, Baseball America’s 2016 Prospect Handbook profiles the top 30 prospects in each organization.

However, each organization has far more than 30 or 40 players in its minor-league ranks. Using my KATOH projection system, I attempted to find the best of the rest. I’ve identified the players with the most promising statistical profiles who were omitted both from Dan’s organizational list and Baseball America’s organizational top-30 list. These are the players about whom no one is talking.

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