Archive for Top 15 Prospects

FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects

The Top 100 prospects list is extremely challenging — much more difficult to do than the Top 15s. Trying to intertwine the best prospects from 30 different organizations into one master list results in many headaches and second guesses. I settled on the finished list about a week ago and already have some reservations and desires to make minor tweaks. At some point, though, you have to cut the ties.

If you’re unfamiliar with my work (I’ve been doing these annual lists at FanGraphs for five years now), I’ll give you a brief overview of how I make my rankings. I talk to multiple contacts within the industry (mosly scouts and front office staff) when creating my Top 15 prospects and Top 100 lists. Along with insider information, I also utilize my own opinions based on live game observations and video. I’m not a scout but I’ve been watching baseball for more than 20 years and writing about prospects for more than 10.

You can read the full scouting reports for all the players and see each club’s full Top 15 prospects lists here. Click on the players’ names to see their statistics and even links to previous articles written about them at FanGraphs.

The Cream of the Crop… aka The Top 10 of the Top 100

1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): Just 20 years old, Profar is probably ready to be at least league average at the plate and an above-average defender. With solid big league depth ahead of him, the challenge will be to find regular playing time for him.

2. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): Taveras has a chance to become the best home-grown offensive talent since Albert Pujols. The young outfielder hits for both average and power and should provide solid defense in left or right field.

3. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore (2013 LVL: AA/MLB, ETA: 2013): A once-in-a-generation talent, Bundy made A-ball hitters look like little leaguers. Injuries may be the only threat to the talented right-hander’s ability to anchor the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

4. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): In one of the more shocking moves of the winter, Kansas City traded the talented young slugger to the Rays, choosing to strengthen its big league pitching staff rather than build around the young, middle-of-the-order hitter. Time will tell if the decision was a prudent one.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston (2013 LVL: AA/AAA, ETA:2014 ): Bogaerts displayed uncanny power for a teenager in 2012, while also hitting more than .300. He has to tighten up his plate discipline and there are questions about his ability to stick at shortstop long term but his ceiling is immense.

6. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): The Pirates have been a disappointment to Pittsburgh fans for too long, but Cole could help lead a new wave of talent to the big league club that should make the organization playoff contenders for years to come. He has legitimate No. 1 starter potential if he can harness the command on his fastball.

7. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): The Diamondbacks received a solid contribution from a rookie left-hander in Wade Miley in 2012 and Skaggs could be the next to impact the big league level — and the latter pitcher’s ceiling is significantly higher.

8. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): The big-bodied Cuba native had a breakout season in 2012 at the age of 20. Combined between two A-ball levels, he posted a 1.75 ERA with 158 strikeouts — and just 35 walks — in 134 innings. He has a chance to develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter. He should bring back a lot of value when the Marlins trade him in five to seven years.

9. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York (NL) (2013 LVL: AAA/MLB, ETA: 2013): Wheeler is finally getting the attention that he deserves as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He has the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter, and could be ready for the majors in the second half of 2013.

10. Christian Yelich, OF/1B, Miami (2013 LVL: AA/AAA, ETA: 2014): Yelich has a sweet left-handed swing and he projects to hit for above-average power as he matures as a hitter. If he can stick in center field at the MLB level, his value will be immense.

The Rest of the Top 100

11. Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York (NL
12. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle
13. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle

14. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh: Taillon is the first player on this list that doesn’t get enough attention, in my honest opinion. A hard-thrower with above-average control and a strong frame, he could slot in behind fellow right-handed pitching prospect Gerrit Cole in the Pirates’ starting rotation for years to come.

15. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore
16. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota
17. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota
18. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta
20. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland
21. Nick Castellanos, RF/3B, Detroit
22. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago (NL)
23. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto

24. Michael Wacha, RHP, St. Louis: The first real big shock on this list, in part because he’s ranked so high and in part because he’s ranked ahead of the likes of Shelby Miller (albeit one spot) and Trevor Rosenthal. Wacha has dominated in pro ball – both in 2012 and during this spring. Critics will say it’s because of his small sample size, as well as his limited innings due to pitch counts (rarely turning the lineup over). If you watch him pitch, though, it’s not hard to envision him dominating in longer stretches.

25. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis
26. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona
27. Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay
28. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland
29. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston
30. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati
31. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego

32. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati: I don’t know why Stephenson doesn’t get more love but he’s a hard-throwing young pitcher with an impressive frame and two potentially-plus pitches (fastball, curveball). The delivery has improved and the repertoire is working itself out nicely.

33. Alen Hanson, SS, Pittsburgh
34. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston
35. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis
36. Mason Williams, OF, New York (AL)
37. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay
38. Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington

39. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington: On the bat alone, Rendon could probably be ranked much higher on the list. Unfortunately, he’s been extremely brittle during his amateur and pro career. A third baseman, his defensive home is also in doubt thanks to the presence of Ryan Zimmerman at the big league level. A move to another position could limited his defensive value.

40. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay
41. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston

42. Gary Sanchez, C, New York (AL): I wrestled with the exact placement of Sanchez and settled on this spot. I’m playing it safe and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the 15-25 range for the 2014 Top 100 list.

43. Addison Russell, SS, Oakland: A 2012 first round draft pick, Russell wowed talent observers during his pro debut — both for his on-the-field abilities, as well as his plus make-up. Add in the fact that he plays a premium position and you have an exciting up-and-comer. Personally, though, I feel expectations should be tempered until he plays in full-season ball.

44. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle: Hultzen is a tough guy to rank thanks to his half-season meltdown last year that saw him walk 43 batters in 48.2 innings of work at the triple-A level. His struggles can be traced back to mechanical issues that got into his head. He’s looked better this spring.

45. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco
46. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York (NL)

47. Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Texas: Olt has some desirable skills but he might be a little over-hyped. I want to like him more than I do but I’ve gone away underwhelmed each time I’ve seen him hit. I see a player with above-average defensive skills at third base but average to slightly-above-average skills at the plate.

48. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado: Make-up and maturity concerns may have helped magnify Arenado’s modest 2012 season. He’ll turn 22 in April, has an impact bat if he realizes his potential and is ready for triple-A.

49. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado
50. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago (NL)
51. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago (NL)

52. Delino DeShields Jr, 2B, Houston: I get why DeShields is not found higher on a lot of Top 100 lists (including defensive questions), but he’s got pedigree, an undervalued plus tool and made significant strides in his development in 2012. If he can improve his defense, he could be an impact player; it’s not often that you find a player with legit 60+ steal capabilities. I personally think DeShields has a better chance to hit big league pitching than Reds speedster Billy Hamilton, who is much more hyped as a prospect.

53. George Springer, OF, Houston
54. Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston
55. Allen Webster, RHP, Boston
56. David Dahl, OF, Colorado
57. Jonathan Schoop, 2B/SS, Baltimore
58. Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis
59. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, St. Louis
60. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh

61. Matt Davidson, 3B, Arizona: I’ve always been a big believer of Davidson’s abilities and his improved defense should allow him to stick at the hot corner. Playing half of his games in Arizona could help pad his power numbers.

62. Luis Heredia, RHP, Pittsburgh
63. Courtney Hawkins, OF, Chicago (AL)

64. Carlos Sanchez, 2B, Chicago (AL): Probably the second most shocking ranking on list, I’m going against the field here with Sanchez — whom I doubt made any other Top 100 lists. The second baseman impresses me with his baseball skills, as well as the way he carries himself on the field. I think he gets a bit of a raw deal because he’s in the White Sox underrated system and because he doesn’t have loud tools. I truly think he’ll exceed expectations when given the opportunity.

65. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota
66. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota
67. Jedd Gyorko, 3B/2B, San Diego
68. Max Fried, LHP, San Diego

69. Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati: Cingrani gets a high grade here because he’s left-handed with above-average stuff for a southpaw. He’s also close to MLB ready with three average-or-better pitches.

70. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington
71. Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati
72. Andrew Heaney. LHP, Miami
73. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas
74. Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle
75. Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles (AL)
76. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Cleveland
77. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota
78. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
79. Justin Nicolino, LHP, Miami
80. J.R. Graham, RHP, Atlanta

81. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Toronto: I’m surprised Osuna doesn’t get more love considering his age, skill set and results from 2012. The right-hander impressed Toronto so much that they started to refer to ‘The Big 3′ (Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino) as ‘The Big Four.’ The emergence of the young Mexican native helped ease the front office’s concerns over parting ways with Syndergaard and Nicolino while improving the major league product.

82. Leonys Martin, OF, Texas
83. Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City

84. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City: Our own prospect maven Mike Newman got a good look at Starling earlier this season and came away uninspired. The Kansas native appeared in just 53 games in 2012 so I’m erring on the side of extreme cautioned with the hopes he’ll have a breakout 2013 season while playing a full-season schedule.

85. Alex Colome, RHP, Tampa Bay
86. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay

87. Slade Heathcott, OF, New York (AL): On talent alone, Heathcott could be higher on this list, but the ‘throw-back’ prospect has been injury prone throughout his career and has never accumulated more than 76 games played in a season. There are also some make-up/maturity issues that have cropped up in the past; if he continues to distance himself from those, while also showing more durability, he could zoomed up this list.

88. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia
89. Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego
90. Jake Marisnick, OF, Miami
91. Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles (NL)
92. A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington
93. Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego
94. Tyler Thornburg, RHP, Milwaukee

95. Luis Sardinas, SS, Texas: In a system filled with multi-talented young shortstops, including Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, it’s easy to understand how Sardinas gets overlooked at times. He offers above-average defense and at least average offensive skills.

96. Chris Reed, LHP, Los Angeles (NL)
97. Corey Seager, IF, Los Angeles (NL)
98. Didi Gregorius, SS, Arizona
99. Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles (NL)
100. Adam Eaton, OF, Arizona

The Breakdowns

Catchers
Travis d’Arnaud
Mike Zunino
Austin Hedges
Gary Sanchez

First Basemen
Jonathan Singleton

Second Basemen
Delino DeShields Jr.
Jonathan Schoop
Kolten Wong
Carlos Sanchez

Third Basemen
Miguel Sano
Anthony Rendon
Mike Olt
Nolan Arenado
Matt Davidson
Jedd Gyorko
Kaleb Cowart

Shortstops
Jurickson Profar
Xander Bogaerts
Francisco Lindor
Javier Baez
Alen Hanson
Carlos Correa
Hak-Ju Lee
Addison Russell
Trevor Story
Nick Franklin
Dorssys Paulino
Luis Sardinas
Corey Seager
Didi Gregorius

Outfielders
Oscar Taveras
Wil Myers
Christian Yelich
Byron Buxton
Nick Castellanos
Billy Hamilton
Mason Williams
Brian Goodwin
Jorge Soler
Albert Almora
George Springer
Jackie Bradley
David Dahl
Gregory Polanco
Courtney Hawkins
Aaron Hicks
Oswaldo Arcia
Leonys Martin
Bubba Starling
Slade Heathcott
Jake Marisnick
Rymer Liriano
Yasiel Puig
Adam Eaton

Right-Handed Starters
Dylan Bundy
Gerrit Cole
Jose Fernandez
Zack Wheeler
Taijuan Walker
Jameson Taillon
Kevin Gausman
Kyle Zimmer
Julio Teheran
Aaron Sanchez
Michael Wacha
Shelby Miller
Archie Bradley
Chris Archer
Trevor Bauer
Robert Stephenson
Carlos Martinez
Taylor Guerrieri
Matt Barnes
Kyle Crick
Noah Syndergaard
Allen Webster
Trevor Rosenthal
Luis Heredia
Lucas Giolito
Daniel Corcino
Kyle Gibson
Alex Meyer
J.R. Graham
Roberto Osuna
Yordano Ventura
Alex Colome
Jake Odorizzi
Casey Kelly
Zach Lee
A.J. Cole
Tyler Thornburg

Left-Handed Starters
Tyler Skaggs
Danny Hultzen
Max Fried
Tony Cingrani
Andrew Heaney
Martin Perez
Jesse Biddle
Chris Reed

The American League (48 prospects)

AL East (18 prospects)
Baltimore: 3
New York: 3
Toronto: 2
Boston: 4
Tampa Bay: 6

AL Central (15 prospects)
Kansas City: 3
Cleveland: 3
Minnesota: 6
Detroit: 1
Chicago: 2

AL West (15 prospects)
Oakland: 1
Seattle: 4
Texas: 5
Houston: 4
Los Angeles: 1

The National League (52 prospects)

NL East (15 prospects)
New York: 3
Miami: 5
Atlanta: 2
Philadephia: 1
Washington: 4

NL Central (19 prospects)
St. Louis: 6
Cincinnati: 4
Pittsburgh: 5
Chicago: 3
Milwaukee: 1

NL West (18 prospects)
Arizona: 5
San Diego: 5
San Francisco: 1
Los Angeles: 4
Colorado: 3


FanGraphs Top 15 Prospects Lists – A Recap

There truly is no off-season for prospect watchers. The first Top 15 list at FanGraphs — the Toronto Blue Jays — hit the Web in early November 2012. The 30th, and final, Top 15 list — the New York Yankees — published on March 6, 2013. It’s a huge task that I love doing, but it’s exhausting at times.

The prospecting industry is currrently in a Gold Age period with high-quality work being done by numerous other writers and publications, including the Baseball America crew, Keith Law at ESPN, the Baseball Prospectus crew, Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com, and John Sickels at SB Nation, as well as some of the newer kids on the block like Bullpen Banter.

I want to publically thank the many contacts in the industry that assisted me in compiling these lists and reports. It’s amazing that so many people, in such important (and busy) positions, were willing to donate their time and knowledge to the process. I also want to thank fellow FanGraphers who helped out: David Laurila, Mike Newman and J.D. Sussman, an up-and-coming top prospect himself.

Keep your eyes peeled for the FanGraphs Top 100 prospects list on Monday, March 11.

***Click on the team name to see the full Top 15 lists with scouting reports.

The American League East

Baltimore Orioles
The Top 3
1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Jonathan Schoop

Boston Red Sox
The Top 3
1. Xander Bogaerts
2. Matt Barnes
3. Jackie Bradley

New York Yankees
The Top 3
1. Mason Williams
2. Gary Sanchez
3. Slade Heathcott

Tampa Bay Rays
The Top 3
1. Wil Myers
2. Chris Archer
3. Hak-Ju Lee

Toronto Blue Jays
The Top 3 (Updated)
1. Aaron Sanchez
2. Roberto Osuna
3. D.J. Davis

The American League Central

Chicago White Sox
The Top 3
1. Courtney Hawkins
2. Carlos Sanchez
3. Erik Johnson

Cleveland Indians
The Top 3
1. Francisco Lindor
2. Trevor Bauer
3. Dorssys Paulino

Detroit Tigers
The Top 3
1. Nick Castellanos
2. Bruce Rondon
3. Jake Thompson

Kansas City Royals
The Top 3 (Updated)
1. Kyle Zimmer
2. Yordano Ventura
3. Bubba Starling

Minnesota Twins
The Top 3
1. Byron Buxton
2. Miguel Sano
3. Aaron Hicks

The American League West

Houston Astros
The Top 3
1. Jonathan Singleton
2. Carlos Correa
3. Delino DeShields Jr.

Los Angeles Angels
The Top 3
1. Kaleb Cowart
2. Nick Maronde
3. C.J. Cron

Oakland Athletics
The Top 3
1. Addison Russell
2. Sonny Gray
3. Dan Straily

Seattle Mariners
The Top 3
1. Mike Zunino
2. Taijuan Walker
3. Danny Hultzen

Texas Rangers
The Top 3
1. Jurickson Profar
2. Mike Olt
3. Martin Perez

The National League East

Atlanta Braves
The Top 3
1. Julio Teheran
2. J.R. Graham
3. Christian Bethancourt

Miami Marlins
The Top 3
1. Jose Fernandez
2. Christian Yelich
3. Andrew Heaney

New York Mets
The Top 3
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Travis d’Arnaud
3. Noah Syndergaard

Philadelphia Phillies
The Top 3
1. Jesse Biddle
2. Adam Morgan
3. Roman Quinn

Washington Nationals
The Top 3
1. Brian Goodwin
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Lucas Giolito

The National League Central

Chicago Cubs
The Top 3
1. Javier Baez
2. Albert Almora
3. Jorge Soler

Cincinnati Reds
The Top 3
1. Billy Hamilton
2. Robert Stephenson
3. Tony Cingrani

Milwaukee Brewers
The Top 3
1. Tyler Thornburg
2. Taylor Jungmann
3. Wily Peralta

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Top 3
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Alen Hanson

St. Louis Cardinals
The Top 3
1. Oscar Taveras
2. Michael Wacha
3. Shelby Miller

The National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Top 3
1. Tyler Skaggs
2. Archie Bradley
3. Matt Davidson

Colorado Rockies
The Top 3
1. Nolan Arenado
2. Trevor Story
3. David Dahl

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Top 3
1. Zach Lee
2. Chris Reed
3. Corey Seager

San Diego Padres
The Top 3
1. Austin Hedges
2. Jedd Gyorko
3. Max Fried

San Francisco Giants
The Top 3
1. Kyle Crick
2. Clayton Blackburn
3. Chris Stratton


New York Yankees Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Yankees system isn’t as deep as it’s been in the past, but there are some high-ceiling talents at the top of the Top 15 list. The organization has some intriguing hard-throwers but the overall pitching depth is thin.

 

#1 Mason Williams (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 397 107 22 11 24 47 20 .298 .346 .474 .370

Williams was a steal as a fourth rounder from the 2010 amateur draft and he’s out-performed higher Yankees picks from that draft including Cito Culver (32nd overall) and Rob Segedin (third round). He’s moved somewhat slowly through the system to date but he looks ready to explode in 2012. Williams, 21, shows a solid approach at the plate with the ability to make a lot of contact, which should help him hit for a high average. He’s also doing a better job of driving the ball.

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Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

Minnesota has turned its minor league system around is short order, thanks to strong drafts, outstanding scouting in the international markets and some trades. The organization now has one of the deepest systems in the game, as well as an enviable collection of power arms and exciting athletes.

 

#1 Byron Buxton (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 189 41 10 5 19 41 11 .248 .344 .448 .370

Buxton, the second overall selection in the 2012 draft, flashed his five-tool potential during his pro debut. An ultra-athletic player, he currently possesses plus speed with gap power but, according to a contact I spoke with, he should add more home runs as he matures as a hitter thanks, in part, to his incredible bat speed.  

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Cleveland Indians Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Indians system doesn’t have a ton of depth but both Francisco Lindor and Trevor Bauer offer high ceilings. The club also has some really intriguing sleepers such as Danny Salazar and Anthony Santander. The organization has done an outstanding job of finding value in the Latin market.

 

#1 Francisco Lindor (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 567 126 24 6 61 78 28 .257 .352 .355 .328

Lindor is one of the more well-rounded offensive prospects in the game. He has plus makeup, which helps his tools play up. He’s a four-tool player whose only questionable tool is his power, which will likely top out around 15 in a full year.  The switch-hitter also walked almost as much as he struck out in 2012. When I asked a contact to tell me what Lindor does well at the plate, he mentioned the prospect’s consistent middle-of-the-field approach from both sides of the plate. 

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New York Mets Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The New York Mets’ top prospect list is a lot stronger now than it was when the off-season began, thanks to the R.A. Dickey trade with Toronto that brought two of the club’s Top 3 prospects into the system. The club lacks impact bats but it has a plethora of high-ceiling arms.

 

#1 Zack Wheeler (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 25 25 149.0 115 4 8.94 3.56 3.26 2.99

Organizations have to make bold moves at times when trying to win championships and the Mets’ top prospect list has benefited from that, both with the R.A. Dickey trade with Toronto, as well as the deal that saw veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran head to the San Francisco Giants, an organization that has won the World Series in two of the past three seasons. That latter trade netted Wheeler, a pitcher with the upside of a No. 1 or 2 starter.

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Philadelphia Phillies Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Phillies organization has a pair of impressive left-handed arms at the top of the list, followed by some interesting, but largely inexperienced, prospects.

 

#1 Jesse Biddle (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 26 26 142.2 129 10 9.53 3.41 3.22 3.24

The Phillies organization has developed some interesting arms in recent years with the likes of Jarred Cosart (traded to Houston), Brody Colvin (regressed), and Biddle — who has risen to the top of the organization. The lefty has a big, strong frame and has been durable throughout his three-year career, pitching more than 134 innings each of the last two years. The former first round draft pick has a four-pitch repertoire and his best offering is an 88-93 mph fastball. Biddle, 21, also has a promising curveball, as well as a slider and changeup.

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Colorado Rockies Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

Colorado doesn’t have a deep system but it has a few intriguing arms and some promising up-the-middle talents. There are a number of prospects that could be poised for big 2013 seasons.

 

#1 Nolan Arenado (3B)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 573 147 36 12 39 58 0 .285 .337 .428 .339

Arenado’s season didn’t go quite as hoped and he had a very inconsistent year. Questions have been raised about his maturity level but most young men his age (21) have questionable behavior at times, so he probably deserves a mulligan and an opportunity to prove he can learn from his mistakes. The California native held his own in 2012 at double-A. He hits for average because he makes solid contact and uses the whole field. Arenado also has solid power thanks to plus bat speed, and his swing could generate 15-20 homers in his prime. He absolutely creamed left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.043 OPS. When I saw him play in 2012 he was struggling against off-speed pitches.

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Oakland Athletics Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The emergence of Addison Russell gives the organization a potential corner-stone talent to eventually build around. The last two drafts have also added some depth into a system that has been slowly depleted over time.

 

#1 Addison Russell (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 244 79 10 7 23 48 16 .364 .428 .590 .456

Russell exploded in his first taste of pro ball after being selected 11th overall by the A’s during the 2012 amateur draft. He played at three levels where he combined to hit .369 and posted a 1.027 OPS in 55 games. Russell, 19, has above-average bat speed, a good eye at the plate and professional coaching helped him become more consistent with his swing. A contact I spoke with said the young hitter had an amazing debut. “He torched the baseball offensively at every level… controlling the zone while hitting rockets all over the diamond. His swing is short, compact and powerful,” he said.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

When I started researching the club, I underestimated just how good the Pirates system is right now. It has impressive high-ceiling talent at the top of the list and depth. I had five or six other players outside the Top 15 that I really wanted to write about, but ultimately they fell just short of the list.

 

#1 Gerrit Cole (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 26 26 132.0 113 7 9.27 3.07 2.86 2.97

Cole was the first overall selection during the 2011 draft and he reached triple-A in his first season in pro ball, securing himself as one of the best pitching prospects in the game. The right-hander’s greatest strength is his heater, which can tickle triple digits and sits in the 93-96 mph range. His second best pitch is a dominating slider. He also has a curveball and a changeup.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Top 15 Prospects

Arizona has some impressive depth, as well as a few high-ceiling players at the top of the system. The organization has added some solid up-the-middle talent to go with an enviable group of pitching.

 

#1 Tyler Skaggs (P)


Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
20 6 6 29.1 6.44 3.99 34.0 % 5.83 5.86 -0.1

Skaggs, 21, reached the majors in his fourth professional season. The southpaw has the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He has an above-average fastball for a lefty and a contact I spoke with said, “He gets a lot of extension out front and the fastball jumps on hitters.” Skaggs also has a curveball with plus potential and a changeup that could be average or better. The talent evaluator feels the changeup has plus potential, as well. “He throws it with good arm speed… He was just learning to believe in it [in 2012] and I think he does now.”

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San Diego Padres Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

San Diego has an impressive system with both some high-ceiling talent and depth. The organization has had some impressive drafts recently, and a number of trades have brought in exciting talent.

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Texas Rangers Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Texas Rangers organization continues to churn out high-ceiling prospects but, unlike some clubs, it relies heavily on home-grown players rather than flipping them in trades for established big-leaguers. If the playing time develops, look for Jurickson Profar to have a Bryce Harper-type impact in 2013.
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Cincinnati Reds Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Cincinnati Reds organization features some high-ceiling talent at the top of the Top 15 list but the depth in the organization is lacking. There are some impact arms at the top but the up-the-middle offensive players are somewhat lacking, other than Billy Hamilton.

 

#1 Billy Hamilton (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 678 173 23 3 93 125 165 .300 .398 .408 .371

Hamilton is probably one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory because of his plus-plus speed and 100+ stolen base totals that he’s racked up in each of the past two minor league seasons. Some patience is required with the prospect, though, as he’s not a finished product. One thing that excites the Reds, though, is that he could develop into an impact lead-off hitter. A contact stated, “It’s hard to find guys with the mentality and desire to be a good lead-off hitter… It’s not always a glamorous spot.”

Hamilton, 22, was shifted from shortstop, his natural position, to center field late in 2012 so the coming season will be key in his defensive development. He has all the skills necessary to develop into a plus fielder — above-average range, good arm and developing reads. The contact I spoke with said the defensive move had nothing to do with the organization’s feeling that Hamilton could not handle shortstop. “It’s more about what he can do, rather than what he can’t, with this move… He’s going to be one of the best [in center field].”

Hamilton split 2012 between high-A and double-A before finishing the year off in the Arizona Fall League. The contact I spoke with said Hamilton got off to a low start in double-A when he moved up and that might have been one of the best things for his development. It might be shocking to hear, but the talent evaluator said the struggles were “good to see,” adding that it often doesn’t help prospects when their first tastes of adversity come at the big league level. “It can really crush a guy,” he added. Hamilton should open 2013 in triple-A and his defensive development will dictate when he’s ready to contribute at the big league level. Read the rest of this entry »


Miami Marlins Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Marlins Top 15 list has a little bit of everything and the organization boasts some impressive arms. There are three left-handed starters on the list that have the potential to develop into No. 3 starters, if not better. The overall depth of the system is improving but it’s still not quite where I’d like it to be.

 

#1 Jose Fernandez (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 25 25 134.0 88 2 10.61 2.35 1.75 1.93

Fernandez, just 20, dominated two levels of A-ball in 2012. The 14th overall pick during the 2011 amateur draft, the right-hander was considered an advanced high school arm but he’s been even better than advertised. He struck out 158 batters with just 35 walks in 134 combined innings last season. He has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-to-high-90s fastball, plus changeup and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and slider.

Although he’s very advanced for his age, a contact I spoke with says Fernandez still has some work to do, including, “Learning how to pitch, reading hitters swings, and a better understanding of pitch sequences,” the talent evaluator said. The young hurler also has so many weapons at his disposal that he needs to learn when it’s appropriate to use each one for maximum effectiveness. Fernandez has a durable frame and should be able to provide 200+ innings with ease at the big league level. He will, though, have to watch his conditioning to prevent getting too big around the middle. Read the rest of this entry »


Tampa Bay Rays Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Rays continue to have one of the best farm systems in Major League Baseball, both in terms of high ceiling talent and depth. The off-season trade that added Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard added to the Rays’ embarrassment of riches.

 

#1 Wil Myers (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 591 165 26 37 61 140 6 .316 .389 .602 .425

A former third round draft pick out of a North Carolina high school by the Kansas City Royals, the catcher-turned-outfielder has developed into one of the top power-hitting prospects in baseball. He’s now among the Top 5 prospects in all of baseball. Because of that fact, it was somewhat shocking that Kansas City was willing to move the top prospect in the winter of 2012-13 to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for pitching help in the form of James Shields and Wade Davis. Read the rest of this entry »


Atlanta Braves Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Braves system is not as deep as it once was and the majority of the talent is found in the lower levels of the system. With that said, there are some intriguing pitching and up-the-middle infield prospects. The outfield depth is very thin.

 

#1 Julio Teheran (P)


Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
21 2 1 6.1 7.11 1.42 22.2 % 5.68 1.99 0.2

It was an off year for Teheran but it’s important to remember that the Colombia native was just 21 years old and pitching in both triple-A and the majors. He posted a 5.08 ERA with 146 hits allowed in 131 innings for Gwinnet. His strikeout rate of 6.66 K/9 was a career low, and the result of poor fastball command. Teheran fell behind in counts too often and wasn’t able to set up his curveball.

Read the rest of this entry »


Los Angeles Angels Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

After a quick glance at the Top 15 list it should be fairly clear that this is one of the weakest minor league systems in Major League Baseball. Poor drafts (mainly due to lost draft picks from free agent acquisitions) and trades have decimated the system, which has almost no starting pitcher depth to speak of.

 

#1 Kaleb Cowart (3B)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 673 157 33 17 73 127 14 .268 .348 .435 .352

The 18th overall selection of the 2010 amateur draft, Cowart has moved methodically through the Angels system. The third baseman split 2012 between two A-ball levels with modest results. Cowart, 20, has shown the ability to do a little bit of everything – flashing five tools. He currently has good gap power that is transitioning into more over-the-fence pop and he’s not afraid to take a walk. He swings and misses a fair amount but he’s young and still improving his pitch recognition. A switch-hitter, he tends to hit for better average from the right side of the plate but flashes solid power from the left side. When I saw him in April, Cowart was swinging around the ball and showed a need to get quicker to the ball.

At the hot corner, Cowart shows a strong arm –although it’s inaccurate at times –and sure hands. The athletic fielder has average range.The Georgia native was a two-way player in high school so his slower development is not a surprise — or a red flag. He has the potential to develop into an above-average third baseman, both on offense and defense. After struggling in the Arizona Fall League at the conclusion of the regular season, Cowart could return to the high-A level to open 2013 with an eye on reaching double-A in the second half of the season. Read the rest of this entry »


Milwaukee Brewers Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

I’m a little concerned about the overall depth of the Brewers system but the Top 15 list filled out a little bit better than I expected it to. There are a number of pitching prospects that appear capable of developing into solid big league starters, which should be welcomed news in Milwaukee considering how thin the big league staff is at this time.

 

#1 Tyler Thornburg (P)


Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
23 8 3 22.0 8.18 2.86 42.4 % 4.50 7.09 -0.5

Questions about Thornburg’s ability to remain a starter have been raised since he entered pro ball. He’s a shorter right-hander and has some effort to his delivery but, to this point, he’s been durable by providing more than 130 innings in each of the past two seasons. The Texas native is a hard thrower. As a starter, he works in the 89-94 mph range but has hit the upper-90s as a reliever. He flashes a good changeup and a solid curveball.

Thornburg, 24, has steadily moved through the system since being selected in the third round of the 2010 amateur draft out of Charleston Southern University. He made 13 starts in double-A and then another eight in triple-A in 2012. He also made his MLB debut with eight appearances (three starts) but an ideal situation would allow the right-hander to return to triple-A to open 2013. With the big league rotation as thin as it is, though, Thornburg has a decent shot at opening the year in the starting rotation. Read the rest of this entry »


Baltimore Orioles Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Orioles list is strong at the top but begins to taper off quickly after the Top 4 players. The system boasts a fair bit of up-the-middle position talent (especially in the outfield) and strong pitching. There were another three or four prospects that could have easily slide into the 11-15 range and just narrowly missed the list.

#1 Dylan Bundy (P)


Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
19 2 0 1.2 0.00 5.40 20.0 % 0.00 4.89 0.0

There’s not much to be said about Bundy that hasn’t already been written about a hundred times. Just 19 in 2012, he carved through the minors and reached the majors in his first full pro season. Bundy possesses mid-to-high-90s velocity on his fastball and he also features a plus changeup and a curveball that shows plus potential. He also has a cutter that he hasn’t thrown much as a pro.

I asked a scout familiar with Bundy about the other aspects of the young phenom’s game. “His mechanics are clean and he’s a good athlete with very good body control which allows him to repeat his delivery for solid-average to plus command and he’s got a good feel for what he’s doing,” the talent evaluator said. “His make-up is off the chart. He’s the most driven and focused young man that I’ve every seen and he’s a good character guy. As far as what Dylan needs to work on. I would say he needs to refine his repertoire and learn the finer points to using his pitches.”

The fourth overall selection in the 2011 draft, Bundy made just three starts above A-ball in 2012 so he could return to double-A or triple-A in 2013. With three potentially-plus pitches and plus make-up, Bundy has true No. 1 starter potential. Only an injury appears capable of derailing this once-in-a-generation talent. Read the rest of this entry »