Chicago Cubs: Top 10 Prospects

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There is definitely some excitement starting to build in the system. There are interesting names at the top of the list, as well as some sleepers sprinkled throughout the system, many of whom did not fit in the Top 10, which is a very nice thing to see for the Cubs. The organization certainly has a lot of depth in the middle infielder, but many of the arms are unproven and, in some cases, rather brittle.

1. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Texas Christian University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Cashner has been a huge find for the organization. Mainly a reliever in college, the right-hander has proven his durability (and repertoire) as a starter. His 1.50 ERA in high-A certainly looks shiny, but his FIP was 3.18 (still good, just not great). At that level, Cashner allowed just 31 hits in 42.0 innings, while showing average control with a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9. His strikeout rate was respectable at 7.29 K/9. He then moved up to double-A, where he allowed 45 hits in 58.1 innings. Cashner’s walk rate increased (4.17 BB/9) and his strikeout rate dropped (6.33 K/9). On the plus side, his ground-ball rate remained around the 47% mark, and he allowed just one home run all season. Cashner will likely begin 2010 back in double-A, with a shot at contributing in Wrigley Field in the second half of the season.

2. Starlin Castro, SS, Double-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

There weren’t many prospects that more helium than Castro in ’09. The shortstop has not stopped hitting since going pro, and he followed up a .300+ debut with another solid offensive performance. Just 19, Castro was pushed from rookie ball to high-A ball and he still hit .302/.340/.391 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 22 bases but was caught 11 times, so he has some work to do on the bases. As well, Castro’s walk rate of just 5.0% was worrisome, but it improved to 8.3% upon a promotion to double-A (111 at-bats). Despite the late-season jump, the shortstop actually showed improvements in his game against better pitching. As mentioned, his walk rate rose, and he also kept his strikeout rate low at 10.8% while hitting .288. Castro was also successful in all six of his stolen base attempts in double-A. Defensively, he has the skill set to remain at shortstop. He’ll likely return to double-A to begin the season, but he’ll probably be the Cubs’ starting shortstop before his 21st birthday.

3. Josh Vitters, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

One of the top prep hitters in the ’07 draft, Vitters has shown a tendency to struggle with each promotion. He hit well during the beginning of the ’09 season in low-A (his second attempt at the level) by hitting .316/.351/.535 in 269 at-bats. He then moved up to high-A ball where he struggled by hitting just .238/.260/.344 in 189 at-bats. The approach to take with Vitters is clear: Don’t throw him any strikes. Keep the pitch off the plate and he’ll get himself out, either by striking out or by hitting a pitcher’s pitch, rather than waiting for something to drive. His walk rate of just 2.6% was a big step back – even from ’08 when he walked just 4.8% of the time in short-season ball. Vitters has shown flashes of having the power needed to remain at third base (.219 ISO in low-A), but that walk rate is going to haunt him at the upper levels of the minors, and it won’t play in the Majors.

4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Short Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Castro can no doubt feel someone breathing down his neck; that someone is Lee. In his first taste of pro ball in North America, the Korean prospect hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats in short-season ball. Just 18 during the season, Lee did very well for his age and the 10.6% walk rate was certainly encouraging, as was the fact that the left-handed hitter kept his strikeout rate below 20% (18.9%). In a small sample size, the middle infielder performed well against both right-handers (.818 OPS) and left-handers (.827 OPS). He doesn’t have much power in his game right now (.091 ISO) but Lee projects to add at least gap power and could eventually grow into a 15 homer guy. Right now, though, he focuses on hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed (63.5% ground-ball rate). Lee stole 25 bases in 33 attempts; if he keeps that up, he could be a real threat on the base paths for the Cubs.

5. Jay Jackson, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: October 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 9th round – Furman University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curve, change-up

Jackson has been a solid find for the Cubs and has moved much quicker through the system than expected. The former two-way player spent time in high-A ball where he posted a 2.29 FIP, a walk rate of 0.94 and a strikeout rate of 10.80 in seven starts (38.1 IP). In double-A, Jackson struggled a bit with his control (4.25 BB/9), but he still missed his fair share of bats (8.38 K/9) and limited base runners with just 73 hits allowed in 82.2 innings. Overall on the year, Jackson held left-handed hitters to a .214 average, but he struggled with his control (4.72 BB/9 compared to 1.76 against right-handed batters). Just 22 years of age, Jackson received one triple-A start in ’09 and he should head back there in 2010. He has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Kent State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curve, change-up

Plagued by injuries as an amateur, Carpenter has been healthy (knock on wood) as a pro. He made 27 starts over three levels in ’09 and reached double-A. Already 24, the right-hander signed as a senior out of college. He spent the majority of the ’09 season in low-A, where he posted a 3.66 FIP and allowed 55 hits in 73.2 innings. Carpenter struggled with his control a bit and he posted a walk rate of 4.03 BB/9. He also had a solid strikeout rate at 7.33 K/9. Moved up to high-A, he had a 2.16 FIP and allowed just 15 hits in 25.0 innings. Carpenter than headed for double-A, where he had a 3.04 FIP in 32.0 innings and did not allow a homer. He also showed solid walk and strikeout rates. Overall, Carpenter posted a ground-ball rate of 52.7% and limited line drives to just 13.2% on the season. He has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy.

7. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Low-A
DOB: July 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Vanderbilt University
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Flaherty is in a bit of an uncomfortable position. The former college standout is a shortstop with Castro ahead of him, and Lee behind him. That is one of the reasons why the 23-year-old infielder spent the entire season in low-A ball. The other reason for his status is that he struggled in the first half of the year and really did not hit well until the second half (15 of his 20 homers came after June 1). The left-handed hitter also struggled against southpaws, having hit just .211/.287/.421. As a result, Flaherty could very well be headed for a platoon role, or back-up infielder role. One thing is fairly certain: He won’t be the everyday shortstop in Chicago as long as Castro is around. Flaherty potentially has the power (.194 ISO) to play third base. Overall in ’09, he had a solid season with a triple-slash line of .276/.344/.470 in 485 at-bats.

8. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Short Season
DOB: March 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Korea)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curve, plus change-up

Rhee had an exciting debut in ’08 but Tommy John surgery showed its ugly face and derailed the Korean’s progress. The right-hander returned in ’09 but obviously was not at full strength. Rhee should return to low-A in 2010 and there is hope that his stuff will bounce back to its pre-surgery levels. If all goes well, he has the potential to be a No. 2 starter, but he’s still a long way off.

9. Logan Watkins, 2B, Short Season
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 21st round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

Watkins is not as flashy as some of the other middle infielders in the system, but he’s shown a lot of potential in a short period of time. The second baseman has a career .326 batting average after two seasons in the low minors, thanks in part to some high BABIPs. Overall in ’09, he hit .326/.389/.391, with a .368 wOBA, in 279 at-bats. Watkins struck out just 11.1% of the time, while producing a reasonable walk rate of 8.8%. He has little-to-no power, and managed an ISO rate of just .065 in ’09. He has some speed but was caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins performs better against right-handed pitchers than southpaws: .831 vs .624 OPS.

10. John Gaub, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: April 1985 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2006 21st round – University of Minnesota
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider

The organization may have regretted trading veteran infielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians, but it wasn’t all bad. The club received back three interesting arms in the deal. Gaub is the closest to having a key impact at the MLB level. The left-handed reliever had a dominating season in the minors, even with below-average control (5.34 BB/9 in double-A). At that level, he also allowed just 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work, while also posting a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Moved up to triple-A, Gaub allowed 17 hits in 31.1 innings with a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. His control improved a smidgen to 4.60 BB/9. His stuff – especially his fastball velocity – has improved each of the past three seasons. Impressively, he’s equally as effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters (.167 average/12.57 K/9 vs lefties and .175/11.45 vs righties).

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins

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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

25 Responses to “Chicago Cubs: Top 10 Prospects”

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  1. Norm says:

    WOW on Cashner/Castro

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  2. CH says:

    Brett Jackson didn’t make this list at all? Are 2009 draftees not eligible?

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  3. Jon says:

    Interesting list. Cashner at the top is a bit of a surprise but the author makes a good argument for the likeliood of sustained success at higher levels. Still, there are a few scouts out there who see his future as a reliever, which curtrail his value. I like the inclusion of Gaub whom one scout called the best lefty relievers in the minors right now, and Dae-Eun Rhee who was positioned to establish himself as a top prospect before injuries derailed him.

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    • Bradley says:

      I too have heard scouts talk of Cashner either moving to the bullpen or simply hitting a ceiling as a number 3 starter. Like his FIP, I fear Cashner is good, not great (and probably not the Cubs’ top prospect, either).

      Otherwise, a great list. Keep them coming, Marc!

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  4. R M says:

    Based on what I’ve read about Rhee, I don’t think his cieling is a #2 starter, I think it is a # 1 starter. He has the potential for several plus pitches, and has good command.

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  5. MattS says:

    Your numbers on Castro’s SBs are wrong, you should check those.

    Rhee has been touching 95 lately and appears to be recovering well.

    Flaherty is going to be a 3B long term with the ability to play 2B also. He’ll be a nice utility player at the least.

    Also, Carpenter hasn’t had any arm problems since 2006 and his injury concerns are overstated.

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  6. Jared says:

    Jackson didn’t start the year in High-A. He started in AA and was demoted mid-year for disciplinary reasons. Then skipped over AA to make one AAA start at the end of the year. There are rumors that he didn’t get along with the AA manager (a certain former Cub who is a Hall of Fame 2B).

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  7. Tony says:

    Nice job Marc. Interesting read. My top 10 goes (if we remove recent draft picks): Castro, Vitters, J Jackson, Cashner, H Lee, Carpenter, Burke, Flaherty, Rhee, Antigua.

    Several comments:

    Cashner- He arguably has the most pitching potential in the system, but I have a hard time ranking him first because his future is still likely in the pen. He made big strides this past year in trying to show that he’s a starter, but his slider was inconsistent and his changeup was still a work in progress (and both were better in AFL supposedly). Sure, those two things can be worked on. The bigger issue is that most indications are that the level of his stuff really dropped off in the 4th/5th innings.

    Vitters – More than the walk rate, my bigger concern is that he simply doesn’t take enough pitches. It was something like 3.2 P/PA this past year. He’s gotta take more than that.

    Lee – What’s scary is that, Castro is said to have good speed, Tony Campana is said to have elite speed, and some folks claim that Lee is faster than anyone in the Cubs system. I think you might be a bit high on the 15 power projection. He might need to rework the swing to generate power

    Jay Jackson – One thing to note is that, he really collapsed in June. He started the year with 3 iffy starts in Tennessee, then got on a decent roll. Then … he just lost his control for a month before the demotion. What to read into it? I’m not sure. He is more of a thrower than a pitcher right now, and he has to get his upper body more involved. I’m a big fan, though. He improved the fb velo this year (was able to sit more in that 92-94 range), still has 2 solid-good breaking pitches, and has a work in progress changeup. Furthermore, he showed that, when moved to the pen, he could ratchet it up to high 90’s if need be.

    Flaherty – Glad you showed Flaherty some love. Seems like he’s getting overlooked this offseason. Early in the year, he was working on fixing a hole in his swing. Furthermore, as minorleaguesplits indicates, he had some bad luck to start the year. He improved defensively by most accounts, but his future is likely at 2nd or 3rd. Actually, he could be a Mark DeRosa-ish type player if he develops. With solid glovework and power, I’m surprised he doesn’t get more attention.

    Rhee – I agree with other comments – I think Rhee’s best case is a number 1. Perhaps not an “ace”, but he has 1 potential with 3 above average pitches. The big concern for me is durability from a health perspective and a frame perspective. There were some questions before TJ as to whether or not he could work deep into games. Far away, and he will physically mature a bit more, but something to ponder.

    Gaub – I really like Gaub and have been quite pleased with him. A bit surprised that a LOOGY got in the top 10, though. Despite the gaudy numbers, I think there’s some belief after AFL that he might not be able to sustain his success against righties. That said, everyone judges differently.

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  8. Tony says:

    Oh, a bit surprised that you didn’t have Kyler Burke on there. Was wondering if you could give a quick rundown as to why?

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  9. Marc says:

    Gaub is certainly more than a LOOGY. As mentioned above, he has solid splits against right-handers too, and his stuff has developed to the point where he could be a late-game reliever (eighth inning, possibly closer).

    As for Burke, he was in the 11-15 range. As for the reason for my hesitation on him… It was his third attempt at low-A. He also had a pretty solid BABIP, and his career OPS versus southpaws is .689 so I want to see how he does against left-handers in 2010, before deciding if he’s got what it takes to be an everyday guy. I definitely like the raw power (43 doubles, .202 ISO) and the walk rate (14.4%). He could certainly be a late bloomer (and is just 21) along the lines of Chris Huseby, who was also in the mix. Because Burke projects as a right fielder (nice throwing arm), that power really needs to be for real.

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    • Tony says:

      Marc, thanks for the response. I know Gaub’s numbers … that said, there’s a sense that his stuff might not play as well against righties in the upper levels, at least, to the point that it’s late inning caliber. Only time will tell. Hey, as a Cubs fan, I hope I’m dead wrong. I’d rather be wrong. He does have a good fastball for a lefty, sitting around 91 from AFL.

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  10. GameOfInches says:

    The Cubs farm system has been an embarrassment over the entire decade. It’s shocking how horrible Jim Hendry is at drafting players considering he was in charge of the draft/minor leagues for the Cubs before becoming the GM. His top draft picks have simply been horrible to say the least. Just look and Vitters and Tyler Colvin. Two players who have less plate discipline than Corey Patterson. What about the lefty power arms he drafted from high school like Mark Pawelek, Andy Sisco, Luke Hagerdy. Where are they now?

    And the most egregious thing he ever did, which deserved him to get fired on the spot, was draft 2 high school hitters who could hit 500 foot homers in batting practice, but had zero baseball skills including the ability to hit a breaking ball. And here is the kicker, both of them were from Dunedien high school in Florida. I’ll give you guys one guess where Jim Hendry went to high school. Yup! You guessed it. For those of you who are confused as to whom i’m referring to. Brian Dopirak was a Cubs power hitting first basemen with crazy strength but flamed out after one good season, and the other is our former 3rd overall pick Ryan Harvey, who too flamed out after one good postseason run in the minors.

    My favorite howere was when Hendry drafted Luis Montanez 3rd overall. Montanez was a high school shortstop from Miami. One would expect him to be compared to another Miami native Alex Rodriguez, but his projection coming out of the draft was that of Alex Gonzalez. Yep, that Alex Gonzalez who ruined the 6th game of the NLCS in 2003 against the Marlins. That’s who Hendry drafted as the 3rd overall pick. An Alex Gonzalez wannabe.

    Even when the Cubs to draft a decent player, you would never know it because the minor league system hasnt developed a decent position player in 10 years. And dont tell me about Soto or Fox cause they dont even count. I’d like to see the Cubs bring up a good rookie player who is younger than 27 years old, cause thats when the Cubs prospects are finally ready for the big show.

    Ugh…check out the name link for more goodies

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    • Jon says:

      Well, you can’t have anything posted about the Cubs without someone ranting about Jim Hendry. I’m not the biggest fan myself and he’s made some mistakes, but you take some serious liberties to try and drive your point home. In order for us to believe these drafts are all Hendry’s fault, we would have to believe that he was in charge when he the scouting director, the asst. GM, and the GM. No matter what position he held, he was the one primarily responsible for the picks? It doesn’t make sense. Hendry was the scouting director, the position most responsible for the draft, between 1996-2000. Admittedly, his record isn’t very good. His biggest first round hit was Jon Garland. Harvey and Dopirak were both picked when John Stockstill was the scouting director. Colvin and Vitters were picked with Tim Wilken as scouting director. You can argue that the GM has the final say, but then you have to lay the blame on Lynch for 1996-2000 and Andy McPhail between 2001-2002…even longer if you believed his influence continued after his promotion. You can’t have it both ways.

      Another thing not considered is that many of the names you mentioned: Vitters, Harvey, Hagerty, Montanez, Patterson, Pawelek were highly regarded universally and drafted around and even below where they were projected. Only Colvin was considered a major reach at the time he was drafted.

      I’m not going to argue that Hendry has made more than his share of mistakes, but your argument lacks consistency and an objective perspective.

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    • Ben says:

      Yep, the same farm system that turned its prospects, via trades, into Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and 1.5 years of Rich Harden. Without the 2003 trade (Ramirez/Lofton for junk), the Cubs don’t make the playoffs that year, and very possibly 2007 and 2008, too.

      I’m not disputing that most of the Cubs’ top draft picks didn’t work out, but there are other ways to get value from a farm system, and they’ve done a pretty good job with that, especially for a system that’s an “embarrassment.”

      And please elucidate why neither Soto nor Theriot count as “decent” position players (neither are great, though I think we can expect them to be league average for their positions in 2010).

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  11. GameOfInches says:

    Sorry guys that my post lacked consistency, but i had a med school final this morning so i had like 4 minutes last night to blast on Hendry. I refer to everything starting with Montanez as the Jim Hendry era. Drafting Harvey was definitely a Hendry decision regardless who the scouting director was. THEY ARE FROM THE SAME HIGH SCHOOL!

    I’m not going to salute Hendry for stealing 2 players from 2 dirt poor teams. The Pirates had absolutely no reason to trade Ramirez, accept that he was entering arbitration. And we all know how the marlins run business

    I think everyone likes Hendry as a guy, but I cant support him as the GM. He makes too many decisions based on personal bias. He always signs/trades for “his guys”. Michael Barrett, Dusty Baker, Jacque Jones, Bradley, Derosa…they were all hendry guys. Dont be surprised if he trades for Marlon Byrd, cause he too is one of many Hendry’s guys. Also, Hendry didnt start using sabermetrics until 2 years ago. He should have been ahead of the game, not the last GM, besides the guy who runs the Royals, to understand that OBP is important. No wonder the cubs sucked in 2006 when you have Pierre, Neifi Perez, Jacque Jones, Ronny Cedeno making outs left and right. The only guy on that team who had a .360 OBP was Matt Mutron and thats the guy Hendry gave up on first.

    Also, just because everyone thinks someone is a great prospect, it’s still your job to verify that for yourself. He obviously has not done that, nor has he had his farm system develop any players. We have all read Moneyball. The trick is to not go with conventional wisdom. Just because you are lefthanded and have a 15K/9 rate in high school doesnt make you the next Randy Johnson

    Oh, and how about last off season where instead of thinking rationally to improve the team, he somehow got it in his mind that he needed to get more left-handed athletic players on the team. That resulted in the addition of Bradley, Joey Gathright, and Aaron Miles. Left handed-check. Athletic-check. Can actually play baseball-oops. Now Hendry is doing nothing but trying to trade Bradley and ignoring the rest of the free agent pool. It’d be better for everyone if he just kept Bradley, who will play better next year guaranteed, and go find some valuable players out there. But Jim and I have different definitions for valuable. Dont even get me started on trading Jake Fox…

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    • pr says:

      Why would a shortstop draft that compared favorably to Alex Gonzales have anything to do with Alex Gonzales botching a play in 2003? How is Milton Bradley any more of a “Hendry guy” than any other number of players he’s signed? Especially when he’s attempting to unload him. How is Derosa a “Hendry guy” when Hendry traded him? Why would they have to trade for Marlon Byrd when he’s a free agent?

      I’m certainly not defending Jim Hendry as he’s had his share of miscues but your posts are not really strengthening your case at all.

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  12. GameOfInches says:

    I’m guessing you’re not from Chicago, otherwise those references would make sense. Hendry guys are players who are constantly rumored as trade candidates for the cubs, and ultimately end up on the Cubs years later. This would be fine if Hendry guys were actually good players, but usually they are not. Also, Hendry guys tend to have a short self life on the Cubs, due to being bad at baseball.

    If either Marlon Byrd or Willy Taverez end up on the Cubs this year, it will solidify my theory of “Hendry Guys”

    For the third time, a high school SS taken 3rd overall was projected to develop into an Alex Gonzalez type SS. Instead of pointing out that Gonzalez was an average defensive SS with a career 300 wOBA, I decided to point out his suckiness through one error in the most important playoff game of my life. At least Felix Pie was projected to become a left handed Vlad Guerrero, hence worth the signing bonus. Montanez was projected to become a below average player, which he is.

    My posts arnt meant to make make Hendry out to be the worst GM ever. Omar Minaya, Dave Littlefield, JP Richiardi have certainly been much worse, but just as I want the best players on the Cubs, I also want the best front office personal

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  13. Mike Olson says:

    You guys are talking about vitters like hes some kind of bust, hes like 19 for christ sakes. I live in peoria and when he was here last year he was on some kind of hot streak at the plate. Ive said it before, the florida st league is a league where hitters go to die. The only thing he needs to work on offensively is being more selective, if he learns how to hit his pitch and not the pitchers pitch hes going to some kind of player in the majors. His defensive is pretty raw, but that should come with time. On another note, Luiz Montanez is a pretty good major league player for the orioles and I would not call him a bust, some guys just take a little longer to develop and Brian Dopriak has put up some great numbers the bluejays system the last 2 years. Harvey was a disaster and I always thought he projected better as a pitcher with that arm of his. Tyler Colvin will be a good major league center fielder within a few years.

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  14. cubfandantheman says:

    Why is no one talking about Darwin Barney? I think he is the Cubs best minor league shortstop.

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