I think a fair but conservative estimate would be that Burke could be a .5 to 1 win player over 400 PA’s at second. (-9 runs for his bat+2.5 position adjustment+14 replacement+0 or 5 runs defense)

]]>If the Cards signed Burke instead of Miles, wouldnt they need to use yet another roster spot for a back up SS? And they still need room for a back up 3B. I guess Ryan could play SS/3B, but Ryan/TLR said there isnt a comfort level there and his bat doesnt really play there (even as back up).

One bonus for Burke would be that he would be a needed RH bat in the OF.

Im just not sure theres enough room for all of that, b/c you know TLR has to carry 12 pitchers.

]]>My only point is that his career stats may or may not be a good indicator of his future performance, depending on whether his batting was permanently affected by the shoulder dislocations.

I think Burke’s value would be higher if he could play shortstop well…which he cannot. Burke has good range, but he has a below average arm, which limits his ability to play RF and also reduces his value as a SS or 3d baseman. His best outfield position is LF and his best infield position is 2d base; so he is best for a team which needs a utility infielder based mainly in those positions.

]]>1. Using his career wOBA as a projection for ’09 weights his 2006 performance equal to his 2007 and 2008 performances. More recent data needs to be weighed more heavily.

2. You gave Burke the full replacement level adjustment but only projected him for 400 PA. A replacement level player is -20 runs per 600 PA, not -20 runs per 400 PA.

3. You didn’t factor any regression into his defensive performance.

Really, Burke is more like +0.75 win player. He’s nowhere close to a +2.3 win player. He’s probably worth $2 or $3 million on a one year deal.

]]>Crunching Numbers on Burke

Using his career wOBA to convert his offense into runs above average, and an arbitrary 400 PA’s: ((.304-.331)/1.15)*400=-9.39

Using Fangraphs, his defensive value (again, using career averages): UZR/150 at 2b=+10

Adjusting for the 2b position: 10-9.39 = .61….6122.5= +23.11 above replacement level 2b for 400 PA’s, which equates to 2.31 Wins. At an FA market value (5mil/win), he’d be worth 11.55m/season. Getting Burke would probably come out as a great deal for the Cards.

In addition, these numbers I picked worked out well since Miles received almost the same number of PA’s in 2008 as I abritrarily set for Burke (408), and his career wOBA is the exact same (.304). Thus, he will also be -9.39 runs below average.

However, Miles’ defense at second base (career UZR/150) is -3.5 runs below average. Adjusting for 2b again gives you (-9.39-3.5+22.5) 9.61 runs above replacement level, or .96 Wins. Thus, it behooves the Cards to go with Burke over Miles, since Burke is going to be between 1-1.5 wins MORE than Miles at probably the same cost.

The interesting thing is, I’m not even mentioning the fact that Burke is 4 years YOUNGER than Miles! Burke is in his prime right now (28) while Miles is 32.

Basically, Burke needs to be signed by some team since he is likely to be a seriously cheap upgrade to 2b or possibly the outfield. I’d advocate the Cardinals to do it, but they’re probably more likely to resign Miles, unfortunately.

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