Confused Says What?… Getting to Know FanGraphs Stats

There are alot of questions in various threads in the forums and in the blog entries over the past few months as to what all these stats mean, especially those in which I’ve played a role. And David has a great series of “getting to know”, and he posts references, etc.

The intent of this thread is for me to capture all those questions, and provide a more complete and nuanced set of responses.

In this thread, no question is too simple or too complex. The question itself doesn’t even have to make sense. The only criteria to posting here is that you are confused.

Think of me as “Dear Abby”.

Fire away, and I’ll answer as I can…

Update: Just to let you know I have more answers starting here. You can make more comments in this thread.



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Greg Foley
Guest
Greg Foley
7 years 5 months ago

Hey, Tango. Thanks for taking questions. I notice that you feel BP’s WARP set’s replacement level too low so you use WAR instead. WAR, however does not seem to be listed along with FanGraph’s other stats. In fact it seems to be calculated anew whenever you talk about a particular player. Is there a place where I can look up a player’s WAR? Thanks.

Geoff
Guest
Geoff
7 years 5 months ago

Tango,
Right now, not all of the stats on the boards are listed in the glossary. Can we get definitions for all the win probability stats? (I’m specifically looking at REW, which I assume is “Run Expectancy Wins”, but I’m not sure how that would differ from WPA).

Sorry if I’m missing something really basic here.

-Geoff

MacMariner
Guest
MacMariner
7 years 5 months ago

Thanks Tango,

I have seen mentioned often recently the +/- for positional adjustment, +/- runs for offense and defense and then a translation of these values into WAR. Would you be kind enough to run through that for me, especially passing on the +/- values for positional adjustments.

Cheers.

JWay
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Tango, thank you so much, for some time I’ve wondered how 10.5 runs = a win. I searched and googled everything and I couldn’t find an easy answer. I’m sure I’m looking in all the wrong places, but that happens. :)

I’m just curious on how that came about.

Daniel Love Glazer
Guest
Daniel Love Glazer
7 years 5 months ago

What is FIP?

bill73083
Guest
bill73083
7 years 5 months ago

Hey TangoTiger,

Thanks for taking questions. Could you explain ultimate zone rating in layman’s terms? I’ve read the definition that fangraphs posted the other day, so I understand basically how its calculated. But I’d like a more in depth explanation.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

How can I get my mother to stop mothering me. I’m a grown man! I’m almost 40!

But seriously, folks, I’ll be here all week….

Here we go:

Of the various offensive stats, which is the most comprehensive and precise for getting a retrospective look at a players offensive “total value” a la linear weights: wOBARAA (wRAA)? WPA/LI? REW? BRAA? Another one? I.E. which one includes the “most” (not just hits, walks, etc, but also steals, groundouts, perhaps baserunning, and so on)?

If that question isn’t clear, I can try again. Which one would be the best for looking forward?

Side question (may go beyond Fangraphs, feel free to ignore): if none of them include non-steals baserunning, which freely-available baserunning stat is the best out there (are there comparable alternatives to BP’s?)?

Defense:

(a bit outside “Fangraphs, feel free to ignore): Are the Outfield Arms ratings at THT “compatible” with bUZR in the sense that one can add those ratings to bUZR in a total player evaluation? Any other publicly-available arm ratings that you recommend?

JWay
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

So when Dave uses the 10.5 he’s playing conservative? I guess I could look at the graph when I get home. I’m on a road trip with my Blackberry. :)

Next question, does the fangraphs wOBA have Stolen bases, caught stealing, gidp, etc factored in? The only formulas I found from your site did not have these in there from what I could find, (again, I didn’t read everything, and my searches didn’t pull up anything I could find). So if it does factor in all of that, what’s the large formula?

JWay
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

So on the UZR subject, if Rollins turns 10 more plays into outs, how many runs or wins is that worth? And is that subjective to position, I assume a +10 SS is more valuable than a +10 1B, cause an average SS would see more opportunities to get outs than an average 1B correct?

Scott
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Scott
7 years 5 months ago

Who created WAR?

JWay
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Alright! Thank you so much for the information! I’ve easily cleared up 4 things today. Hooray learning!

Jake
Guest
Jake
7 years 5 months ago

Are there any reasonably good fielding metrics that work for catchers?

Greg Foley
Guest
Greg Foley
7 years 5 months ago

WAR v WARP v WSAB

So BP’s WARP has set the replacement level too low and WAR has it right. What about The Hardball Times’ WSAB? Is this stat on the correct scale?

Jake
Guest
Jake
7 years 5 months ago

How do you concretely measure replacement level? It seems like the number of AAA catchers/shortstops/starters/whatever that make emergency starts would make for a pretty small data set.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
7 years 5 months ago

I second Jake’s question, and I ask the same with regards to pitching metrics. Thanks, btw, for this — it’s a great resource — and I’ve always respected the work you and MGL do over at your site.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
7 years 5 months ago

I second Jake’s first question about catching defense, by the way.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
7 years 5 months ago

Hmm… triple post, but I wanted to make it clear that I was asking if there are any good metrics that measure a pitcher’s fielding ability… now, I’ll stop.

Jake
Guest
Jake
7 years 5 months ago

Plus/Minus works well for pitchers.

http://www.fieldingbible.com

Mike Ketchen
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

I just want to say that is offical, Fangraphs is not the best thing since sliced bread, IT IS BETTER! Thanks Tango and to Dave an ETC. Keep it up! My NFBC checks thank you ; )

Brendan
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Brendan
7 years 5 months ago

Hey Tango,

I signed up for a subscription to billjamesonline so i could see Dewan’s fielding bible statistics. Now that fangraphs has UZR, I’m questioning which one is more useful?

Mike Ketchen
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Now for my question, and I apologize as it might be the biggest newbie question ever. I want to know the difference between +/- and UZR.
For example Tulo was something ungodly like +30 in 07. His UZR though was 5? Are those the same and I just dont know it? AS I have come to understand 10 is a win. Well one says his glove is three wins, one says its a half win. Help me please!
Thanks in advance

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Since it just appeared on the site and it’s still not “officially” released. The wRAA is based off wOBA and is (wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale * PA

I’m in the process of phasing out RC and RC/27, and you’ll notice it has already been replaced by wOBA in the graphs section.

Thanks Tango for taking the time to answer FanGraphs reader’s questions!

Double06
Guest
Double06
7 years 5 months ago

This is fantastic. Thank you Tom for your time doing this.

My question is: You said that a hit is worth .54 runs and an out is worth -.27. I was wondering if there is an online resource to find out what the value is for every event that can take place, like ground outs, fly outs, sac flies, XBHs and such? I’ve tried looking online, probably poorly, and I can only seem to find bits and pieces here and there.

Bearskin Rugburn
Guest
Bearskin Rugburn
7 years 5 months ago

re UZR methodology, is the fielding prowess of the average fielder at each position calculated empirically over the course of every season or is it a hypothetical constant?

The former would be intuitive, but then the value of a guy like Everett or Vizquel can vary greatly over the course of their careers as positional depth and quality fluctuates, although what they bring to the table is the same.

Steve
Guest
Steve
7 years 5 months ago

If the Crown of England has the authority to prevent the Canadian parliament from conducting it’s business, is Canada truly a country or is it really an English colony?

BTW, what’s up with Quebec? What can’t it be more like Vancouver?

Hizouse
Guest
Hizouse
7 years 5 months ago

Fangraphs FIP differs from THT FIP (i.e., they have different FIPs for the same pitcher). Is that because one accounts for HBP and IBB and one doesn’t?

Baltimoron
Guest
Baltimoron
7 years 5 months ago

Thank you

wRAA represents a game state agnostic linear weight value, and WPA/LI is a game state sensitive linear weights value.

As the value of offensive events can vary given the game state, is it correct to think that after enough of a sample size WPA/LI will be more indicative of a the player’s actual value than wRAA because WPA/LI will capture the ability of a player to adapt their offensive approach to the demands of varying game states, and thus better reflect the player’s actual offensive contribution?

What would be a large enough sample size to allow us to look more to WPA/LI than wRAA?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Hizouse: FanGraphs FIP does include HBP and IBB. I think our + ~3.2 constant might be slightly different, though I’m honestly not sure how. I adjust by season, they might be adjusting by league too?

Baltimoron
Guest
Baltimoron
7 years 5 months ago

Mike Ketchen,

I believe the Fielding Bible’s +/- score is expressed in plays above/below average, while UZR is expressed in runs above/below average.

I think you want to convert the Fielding Bible’s “+/- plays” to “+/- runs” to compare it to a player’s UZR.

Sean
Guest
Sean
7 years 5 months ago

David, why don’t you adjust FIP by league also? I’m pretty sure you should be, and since we have Tango on an answering-spree maybe he can clear this up too.

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

I don’t because of the way the leaderboards are set up. Adjustments by season are easier to do, but doing things by league is considerably more difficult, mainly when doing on the fly calculations (like the leaderboards). This is not to say I won’t change it at some point.

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Yeah, for current seasons it’s not more than .10 in FIP. For earlier seasons it can sometimes be as much as .2, but it’s not really going to change your evaluation of a particular player.

Steve
Guest
Steve
7 years 5 months ago

Tango the glossary is at odds with you on WPA/LI. Which is correct?
You:

WPA/LI
WPA/LI is the most sensitive to the context. A bases loaded, bottom of the 9th, tie game HR is IDENTICAL in reality to a walk, and WPA/LI reflects that. The other measures don’t. Is a HR and walk the same in this illustration? If so, then this is not for you.

Glossary:

WPA/LI (context neutral wins / game state linear weights): How many wins a player contributes to his team with the Leverage Index aspect removed, invented by Tom Tango.

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Steve. If you click on the link and read the “why you should care” section, you’ll see it reads:

Why you should care: Unlike standard linear weights, WPA/LI does take into account the situation. So at times when a walk would be just as valuable as a home run, WPA/LI accurately weights the walk and the home run, where linear weights would still give .13 wins to the home run and the walk .03 wins.

I agree it could probably be worded better in the original glossary page, I’ll try and get that cleared up.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

Doesn’t that mean that all standard linear weights are derived from something like WPA/LI?

Chris
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

David,

When you were described the formula for wRAA, can you explain to me what ‘wOBAScale’ is?

Thanks, this is a great Q&A thread.

Jake
Guest
Jake
7 years 5 months ago

I assume that the lack of responses about effective catcher fielding metrics means that most of the favorites don’t work for catchers. Are there ANY fielding metrics for catchers besides the basic numbers?

MIcah
Guest
MIcah
7 years 5 months ago

Average ERA is different for relievers versus starters. Why not normalize FIP for relievers against average ERA for relievers etc?

Hizouse
Guest
Hizouse
7 years 5 months ago

Thanks to both Tango and David for this thread….

What is your favorite publicly available DIPS ERA-type stat? Does tRA (quoted often on fangraphs blog) give you more meaningful information than regular old FIP–enough that it’s worth heading over to statcorner when you’re trying to get a quick idea of a pitcher’s true talent?

dan
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

When you say a pitcher is “a .550 pitcher,” for example, what exactly does that mean? You can refer to starters and relievers separately if you wish.

dan
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Ignore that last question.

Dorasaga
Guest
Dorasaga
7 years 5 months ago

Hi, Tom,

I got the print of “The Book” earlier this year. It was sent to me across more than 4000 miles, and I’m really pleased with the knowledge in it. Do you mind autograph it for me? and also ask Bill James when will he release his new mystery stories?

By the way, why are the results from the UZR sometimes way off from its counterpart in Chone’s or Dewan’s +/-??

What technologies did UZR use? (the “how” behind it?)

And what is the baseline of the “150” from the UZR/150?

Chris
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Thanks Tango,

So wRAA is the same as bRAA?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Chris – Yes, they are the same, but there may be some differences between wRAA and the bRAA you find on StatCorner. wRAA includes SB/CS, but not ROE, while bRAA doesn’t have SB/CS and does have ROE.

Jed MC
Guest
Jed MC
7 years 5 months ago

What do you see as the next breakthrough(s) in analysis? Is it the batted ball equivalent of pitch/Fx? Accumulation of pitch/Fx data?

Sky
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Assuming a WAR calculation isn’t too far away (given UZR, bRAA, and David’s general openness to adding awesome stuff to the site), how about a play-by-play baserunning stat and an outfield arms stat (pretty much the same methodology, right?)

JoshC
Guest
JoshC
7 years 5 months ago

My question is a bit more simple. What’s “league average” (AL/NL/ML) for some of the advanced statistics. Specifically, I’m curious about:

For pitchers
BABIP
LOB%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%

For batters
BB%
K%
LD%
IFFB%
HR/FB
IFH%
Contact%

What’s the translation to convert LD% for hitters into the ‘expected’ BABIP?

And what’s the difference between the various contact%es?

Thanks!

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

By the way, let me say again that this is great.

I would love a total WAR thing on this site, but part of the fun of having it piecemeal is that I can figure it myself and feel like a real “analyst” (even if all I am really is a data entry guy).

But second on the baserunning suggestions Sky made.

qqqqqqqq
Guest
qqqqqqqq
7 years 5 months ago

Where can I find xBABIP for every player? The recent BABIP article on THT sparked my interest in xBABIP but THT doesn’t list the stat or the formula. It’d be nice to see it on Fangraphs.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

Any chance for seeing the stats regressed towards a player’s xBABIP AND towards his personal mean?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 3 months ago

Well, first off, I don’t even know how to calculate xBABIP. I understand it takes into account a number of parameters, some of which I don’t have.

You’re basically asking for a projection here, and we already have those.

Ted
Guest
Ted
7 years 5 months ago

What do you think are the shortcomings of UZR? I mean, it’s great and all, but what are the gray areas that we need to fill to get a more complete picture of a fielder?
Obviously it misses an outfielders arm strength and accuracy. And it’s not park specific.
Is it possible to make a true, comprehensive fielding statistic?

thanks for taking these…

studes
Guest
studes
7 years 5 months ago

Hope you don’t mind if I crash this party, but I just want to add that THT’s FIP is indeed based on season and league. Plus, we include HBP in the formula and we don’t include intentional walks.

Xeifrank
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

How do you calculate the pitcher Win% in your WAR calculations? Please show your work with an example if possible. Thanks!
vr, Xei

Brian
Guest
Brian
7 years 5 months ago

How much control does a pitcher have over his:
1) BABIP
2) HR/FB
3) LOB%

How much control does a batter have over his HR/FB?

jinaz
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Just wanted to second Sky’s post. I think a WAR-style statistic would be absolutely wonderful (I wouldn’t have to calculate my own anymore), and would be easy to do (I would think) given what you already have on the site. Adding to that info on baserunning and outfield arms would be icing on the cake.

…Since everyone else is plugging their stuff, I thought I’d mention two things that are relevant to questions in this thread:
2008 WAR for all MLB players:
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/10/preliminary-2008-total-value-estimates.html
My methods series, for those interested in what goes on under the hood:
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/search/label/player%20value
-j

Joel
Guest
Joel
7 years 5 months ago

Thanks again, fangraphs is probably my favorite site on the internet now, and I read everything i can on it.

One quick question about fielding. Would it be possible to try a fielding WPA/LI? Or would this just not really work at all? Would there really be fielders who make more errors with 2 outs and nobody on then with runners on? If such a fielder exists who makes no errors with no outs and runners on base, but makes a few errors with two outs and bases empty, he would surely be better than a fielder who does the complete opposite. Ive had a debate with myself over whether a stat such as this would actually have any value, and after seeing this thread, I think you can answer it better than I can.

DrNaka
Guest
DrNaka
7 years 5 months ago

Thank you Tango-san to give me a chance to ask.
I am confused about “Plate Discipline”.

I think O-Swing is for batter how many percent he swings at out of zone balles and is a indication of “Plate Discipline”.
As for pitcher it will be a indication how he could fool the batter and let him swing on out of zone pitch.

What are Swing % and Zone% ?

Also what is F-Strike % ?
Is only strike/(strike+ball) in first pitch or Z/(Z+O) for first pitch?

Z/(Z+O) on first pitch might be a good stat how pitcher fear a particular batter.

David Appelman
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

DrNaka: You have O-Swing correct.

Swing% is just how often a batter swings at pitches in or out of the zone. You could consider it a sign of how aggressive the batter is.

Zone% is the percentage of pitches a batter sees in the strike zone. It can be an indication of how aggressive pitchers are against a particular batter.

F-Strike % is the percentage of first strike pitches seen or thrown by a batter or pitcher.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
7 years 5 months ago

Hey Tom — thanks again for all of this. I have a question — I’ve been rummaging through the sites recently trying to search for information about hot/cold zones (you know, red for .300 and above, .200-.300 gets neutral, and below .200 gets cold). I am one who believes they exist — some hitters turn on a middle-in pitch better than others. FOXSports has that information, but it’s limited in so much that it only gives you one year of data.

Would it all be possible, using the Gameday data that we have, to develop an archive of hot/cold zones… and how would one go about doing that?

Thanks again.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

What about creating a “Little Things” stat, which would be WPA/LI-wRAA? This would show how much a player contributes than what traditional linear weights shows?
Thanks, Tom.
I love Fangraphs.

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 5 months ago

FIP for relievers, starters

I remember looking at this, and I don’t think there was that strong a bias that one needs to be worried about it. My personal opinion is to do as few adjustments as needed, because each adjustment brings in 10% new readers and loses you 20% of them. It’s always easier for someone else to take what you have and have them apply their own adjustments, rather than me doing all the adjustments, and then others either accepting the black box, or trying to reverse engineer some of the adjustments out.

It’s a tough call when to do which. With FIP, it is such an extraordinarily easy metric, that I definitely don’t want to tamper with it.

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 5 months ago

tRA

Yes, tRA is one of the best, if not the best, one out there. Indeed, I have something very similar to it, and is useful in its simplicity. Along the same lines is Studes’ Batted Ball stats in the Hardball Times annual on his old blog. They all do the same thing. Gassko’s DIPS v2.0 I think is the same thing as well.

The idea is to look at the type of batted ball hit, and PRESUME the league average hit/out rates for each type, and IGNORE the actual result of whether it was a hit or out.

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 5 months ago

150 in UZR/150

That’s per 150 games. Perhaps David should call it: UZR/150G

Autograph

Arranging autographs seems a bit complicated at the moment.

Next breakthrough

There’s no question that it’s PITCHf/x. HITf/x, if ever it gets implemented, would be a close second.

The breakthrough is us getting data that we’ve been trying to infer. And so, the more data you can record, the less inferences we make, and the more we actually know.

Baserunning play-by-play

It’s fairly straightforward in concept, but might be too much effort to code. For example, David simply has to code for something like this:
http://tangotiger.net/destmob1.html
He has to presume the runner will take these number of bases those number of times. And whatever he does over and above that, he gets credit for it.

It’s alot of work to get something that won’t necessarily give alot of payoff. I imagine it’s a question of priority.

League average

I agree that it would be nice to see a “league average” line at the bottom of each chart, just so that we have a frame of reference. Either the 2008 league average, or the 2002-08 average.

UZR shortcomings

Actually, it is park specific. And he does have arms, though I don’t think MGL included it in this version. The shortcomings is none really. As long as you use as much of the data as possible, and try to infer things as intelligently as possible, then you have to conclude that it’s doing as much as it possibly can.

There is an uncertainty level, of course. The shortcomings is in the data collection, not the data processing.

Control over stats

I don’t like the question of “how much control”. The question is really “how much does the metric show how much control…”. The batter has alot of control over his power, but how much does HR/FB show that? If you only have 50 flyballs, then the answer is “not much”. If you have 5000 flyballs, then the answer is “ALOT”.

I recommend reading MGL’s regression.pdf file found here:
http://tangotiger.net/mgl/

Fielding play-by-play

You could try it, but boy would it be complicated. I’m not sure the payoff is there.

Hot cold zones

Yes, I love this chart:
http://tangotiger.net/halejon/allcounts.html

And I agree that it would be great to have it by hitter. All it takes is effort by someone who processes GameDay data.

The Little Things

Yes, WPA/LI minus wRAA would give you the “little things” the hitter contributes, or, more specifically, how much he tailors his approach to the game state. I highly support the suggestion.

Rob
Guest
Rob
7 years 5 months ago

I posted this in another topic, but it’s probably more relevant here:

I’m having some trouble finding the correct formula for calculating a pitcher’s WAR. Does anyone know the correct replacement level modifiers for SP and RP? Also, I’ve seen some large discrepancies on what the league average ERA should be – resulting in more than a win difference depending on the formula. If anyone would be willing to run through this process using an example, I would greatly appreciate it.

KMils
Guest
KMils
7 years 5 months ago

Tango, I’m looking at Justin Morneau’s page on Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1737&position=1B). Marcel has his wOBA going down by a few points; it also seems to project that he’ll lose approx. 90pa from this year to next, which is enough to cut his wRAA by a third. Why would Marcel make such a prediction (seeing that he’s gotten 660+ for last three years)? I believe I’ve heard that Marcel isn’t the most accurate predictor, unless I remember wrong, but that projection seems a bit strange.

mymrbig
Guest
mymrbig
7 years 5 months ago

My brain hurts.

I would love to see fangraphs either develop or inport some kind of xBABIP stat (based on things like LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB, maybe a speed factor) that can then be used to general an xAVG/xOBP/xSLG line. xwOBA would be a similar option probably preferred by the statheads but not as easily understood to the masses (myself included).

Basically try and correct for luck and translate that into a player’s overall hitting value. As I currently understand it, wOBA does a good job giving us a picture of a hitter’s overall context-neutral value. But as I understand it, there is no consideration of luck, so a player with an extremely lucky BABIP (say Hunter Pence in 2007) has a huge wOBA (.384 for Pence in 2007). But that doesn’t really have much predictive value for us since a good chunk of his wOBA was presumably based on seeing-eye grounders, etc. xwOBA or xAVG/xOBP/xSLG (or something else) would give a context-neutral, luck-neutral valuation for a player. It would answer the question of “How valuable was this hitter’s performance if he had league-average (or neutral) luck?”

I suspect something like xwOBA would be extremely consistent for most players. It would be even nicer if this stat was then translated into some sort of run calculation based on 150 games so that one could easily combine it with UZR/150 to get a fast measure of how valuable a given player was in a given season.

The holidays are almost hear, so you all better get on it…

Schooner O'Malley
Guest
Schooner O'Malley
7 years 5 months ago

TT – Which book about baseball – that hasn’t been made into a movie – would make a great movie?

mymrbig
Guest
mymrbig
7 years 5 months ago

Nothing like using terms like “xwOBA” to impress the ladies. I think I just burped up some vomit onto my shoe in reaction to what I just wrote. Must be Friday afternoon.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

Thanks, tom. I love this stuff but I have a ton of trouble coming up with any good stats. Have any suggestions?

DrNaka
Guest
DrNaka
7 years 5 months ago

Thank you David Appelman-san to answer my question.

Still confused about
“F-Strike % is the percentage of first strike pitches seen or thrown by a batter or pitcher.”

So it is based on PITCHf/x
in zone/(in zone + out of zone)

So if pitcher throw an out off zone pitch and batter fouls it it will decrease F-Strike %.

I have other questrion.

Are there any studies about PITCHf/x date vs umpires?
Who was the consistent umpitre by year?
Who had small strike zone and who had big strike zone?

DrNaka

ball in play
Guest
ball in play
7 years 5 months ago

when trying to evaluating a possible trade, what are the most important statistic(s) to use to determine a players worth on the field? (disregarding salary and service yrs remaining)

1) in a position player for positon player trade?
2) a pitcher for pitcher trade?
3) a position player for pitcher trade? (is there a ratio for playing time envolved ?)

short version, no formula’s please.
thank you very much.

Brandon H
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

O Swing %

How does this measure work for pitchers?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

Additionally, it seems as if the Little Things turn out negative for most players. Anyone know if this is because of a general discrepancy in the two stats? If I’m wrong, please feel free to tell me.

Brandon H
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

My prior question should have been expanded to ask…

How can swing percentages be used to foreshadow the outcomes of a pitcher or hitter?

For example, JJ Putz saw his O Swing % drop 7% from 2006 to 2007 which lead to a 2% drop in Swing % in the same time frame. While this didn’t really catch up to him immediately, it appears as though it did in 2008 as as his Swing % dropped to 42% (or so). Is this a mere coincidence, or is this a factor to consider?

Cody K
Guest
Cody K
7 years 5 months ago

Is there a place where I can find the correlation of stats on a year to year basis, ex. K%, BB%, GB %, BABIP? I had a chart with all that at one point but I can’t seem to find it anywhere. Thanks.

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Question about the “Little Things” suggestion: To get them more on the same “scale,” should WPA/LI be put on a runs scale? Should it be divided by 10.5 to do so?

ON the other hand, one could convert wRAA, but again, what is the multiplier? 10, or 10.5?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

re Devil Fingers:
Yes, it should. Sorry I forgot to mention that.

Any chance of getting an offensive/150 stat? That way we could directly compare that to UZR/150. I was just looking at Brett Gardner, and I figured I need something like that.
Thanks, Tom.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

And it doesn’t matter wins or runs. I personally prefer wins, it is easier when evaluating a player’s contributions.

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

samg — thanks. I think I mixed up “multiplied” and “divided.”

What sorts of things are covered in “little things.” Runner-advancing sacs and groundouts, moving up a base on those outs, going from first-to-third on a single, etc?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

Basically, yes. According to my preliminary findings, many players are in the negative. The main purpose is to see whether a manager is truly justified in justifying playing a player because he does the “little things” well.

Anyone know a good formula for finding the conversion factor for runs to wins as well as wins to runs accounting for specific changes in run-scoring environments?

Thanks in advance.

Brent
Guest
Brent
7 years 5 months ago

I hear you talk about bUZR vs. sUZR, and I get that it’s BIS and STATS, inc. but where can I go to find the bUZR info? Doesn’t fangraphs only post the sUZR?

Also, as we know, CHONE’s projections where he regresses UZR (or whatever he uses) to the fans scouting report is really the best way to assess defense optimally (if that’s the right word?) given the less sure we are of advanced defensive metrics. However, now that we have UZR info using both BIS and STATS, inc. data, would you combine both numbers into a better UZR average? Maybe that’s what we need to start doing when evaluating players defensively, especially those like Ichiro where the numbers differentiate more than average.

Jon T
Guest
Jon T
7 years 5 months ago

You mentioned in this blog, “The only thing to remember is that while the 26th man earns 0 dollars.”

While this makes sense at first thought, don’t we always add on minimum salary for a replacement player? I’ve always seen the guys here and at other blogs do a $4 mil + 500K (or whatever is min. salary) to determine total value. Am I missing something here or talking about something else?

Brent
Guest
Brent
7 years 5 months ago

Tango, on my comment, I mean where can we find sUZR data to compare with fangraphs bUZR…does MGL only have access to that? That correction should help you better answer my question.

David Appelman
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Samg: There’s a few reasons why the “Little Things” could mainly be negative, double plays not being included in wOBA comes to mind, but I think for a truly apples to apples comparison, you’d need to use the same play-by-play data and attribute the average run value of each event to each actual event and then add everything up at the end. This would be a play-by-play version of linear weights and maybe it’s something I can do for 1974 – 2008.

And I think the conversion for runs to wins for 2008 is almost exactly 10.

-David

Sam
Guest
Sam
7 years 5 months ago

Could you tell me how to calculate UZR over replacement? Is it available anywhere? If not, could you guys add it to the stats pages?

Mike
Guest
Mike
7 years 5 months ago

Learning all of the formulas and studying each glossary on here, THT, BP, etc. is becoming more and more overwhelming every day.

My question is: What are the best ones to use? I mean, is there one stat each for pitchers and hitters that would rank them from best to worst? Which is the best stat for offensive production? How about defensive production? Thanks!

Sam
Guest
Sam
7 years 5 months ago

Yes Tom, I know it is around 10 now. However, I want to be able to convert it for any theoretical season. Would it be W=(LGAVRUNSSCORED+(LGAVRUNSALLOWED)?

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 5 months ago

Runs to Win Converter

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/more_updates_at_fangraphs/#1

***

Single best stat? Sorry, but you won’t get an answer from me. You use whatever you need to use to answer whatever question you have. Sometimes WPA/LI fits, sometimes WPA, sometimes RE24, sometimes wOBA.

ball in play
Guest
ball in play
7 years 5 months ago

if BA is the poorest stat to determine offensive production, which is the best?
if wins is the poorest stat to determine pitching effectiveness, which is the best?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

That doesn’t quite answer my question. Isn’t it just Wins = Runs/Game?

ball in play
Guest
ball in play
7 years 5 months ago

sorry, i now see you wouldn’t commit to my question, asked by mike. my bad.

mymrbig
Guest
mymrbig
7 years 5 months ago

Any thoughts on what I wrote/asked (using BABIP, LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB%, and whatever else to try and remove luck from wOBA)? I’m wondering how well the new stat (I called xwOBA, but you can call it whatever you want) would be used to predict future performance and overall context-neutral offensive value. Seems like a stat that would do a great job both of summarizing a player’s offensive contribution while trying to remove luck from the equation.

Rahul
Guest
Rahul
7 years 5 months ago

Tom, I had a question about the process one would use to “adjust” a players avg/obp/slg line to account for xbabip. For example, if a players babip was lower than what we would expect, could we then add on the number of “missing” hits back to the players line in proportion to their non home run rates?

For example, if it was determined that the player was unlucky to the tune of 10 hits, and 80% of his hits (that aren’t homers) are singles, then we could add 8 singles and say 2 doubles back to his line and this would adjust the line to expected levels?

Am I on the right track here or completely off base?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 5 months ago

Tom, I just want to make a point here. There is a point at which we must stop adjusting for things. Otherwise, we would simply end up with everyone having the same results. I simply feel that this point must be made.

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Don’t know if anyone is still reading/answering here, but for those of us too lazy, and who want to go to fangraphs for all the work, for an individual year in question, could we just use that year’s RE24/REW to get the runs to wins conversion?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

I think you’d be better off doing: ((lgR * 9 / lgIP) * 1.5) + 3

lgRE24/lgREW will get you a very very close number to that, but I’d think it’d be easier to do it the other way.

devil_fingers
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Sorry, one more thing. I know this isn’t technically a “suggestions” thread, but here is one. I don’t know how tough this would be to do, but one of the many cool things with fangraphs is that ability to output player/team/league stats to excel/csv (even though my csv outputs puts the full html script for each player in that field for some reason).

Anyhow, I was wondering if there was some way that would allow users to “customize” what fields get output? This would allow us to individually output, e.g., both the WPA/LI and wRAA to our personal spreadsheets/databases to do out own “Little Things” stat for the whole teams or whatever. Ok, obviously, this is something I want to do for my own blogging stuff and you might implement that particular thing yourself. But it would be cool in general, for generating, say, our own personal relief pitching stats combining different pitching results and leverage ratings, and so on.

It’s a great resource either way, just thought I’d pass on my two cents.

Samuel E. Giddins
Member
6 years 6 months ago

I think it’s great you actually did it!

kevin
Guest
kevin
7 years 5 months ago

Is there anyway to measure a catcher’s ability to call a game besides the ERA of the pitchers when the catcher is catching? (I know that’s a stat, and I know it’s useless b/c Rod Barajas is gonna end up better than Gerald Laird last year no matter who is actually a better game caller)

[I think it was called “Catcher’s ERA”….which would make sense, but I can’t remember0

Nathan
Guest
Nathan
7 years 5 months ago

Could you take us through the process of calculating a player’s free market salary? I’ve tried to reconstruct the process based on articles on the site, but I have a bit of confusion over playing time and just want to make sure I don’t forget anything.

Thanks

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
7 years 5 months ago

In a recent debate with a fellow fan and friend, we got into it about Scott Kazmir vs. Andy Sonnanstine. The argument rested on who was the better pitcher last year and who was more valuable. Taking a look at their traditional statistics, one would easily come to the conclusion that Kazmir was superior last year. FIP and other defense-independent statistics seemed to favor Sonnanstine. The FIP advantage for Sonnanstine was about .4, but Kazmir held the advantage by 1.2 in RA. Generally, park factors and defense would seem to be the culprits for the difference in these figures (as well as luck and LOB%), but since they play on the same team these factors should be mitigated.

My question is thus:
When reviewing past performance to determine which pitcher was more valuable to the team, what statistic seems to shed the light more? I argued that the one based on real runs was a better indicator of past performance rather than figurative runs. The reasoning to me seems logical; the pitcher that (for whatever reason) allowed less runs in a somewhat context-neutral environment did more to help his team win. In theory, FIP or tRA or DIPs strip luck out of the equation, but in reviewing past performances are they better equipped for measuring value. Why? While luck plays a large part in RA or ERA, it also plays it in these other statistics to a lesser extent.

Thanks

alex
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

I am a big fan of tRA, but I was always under the impression that a pitcher had little control over if a ball in the air was a FB or LD. How much control do they really have?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 5 months ago

Year to year correlation on line drive percent for pitchers is pretty much nil, so it appears they don’t have really any control at all over line drives.

alex
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

Would you consider that a weakness in tRA then? Personally I would rather make all balls in the air worth the same for tRA because, as you said, a pitcher has little control of LD vs. FB.

Sky
Guest
7 years 5 months ago

You could group LDs and FBs together, I suppose.

But you could also use tRA as a value metric — all those LDs given up actually were more costly than the FBs. If you wanted to judge the true skill demonstrated by a pitcher, use tRA*, which regresses appropriately.

Nick
Guest
Nick
7 years 5 months ago

Tango I am having some trouble understanding UZR. I believe that the statistic is too volatile and the variables need to be adjusted. I would like to use Curtis Granderson as my example here. First lets look at his wOBA (using his 2006,2007, & 2008 seasons ). The are very strongly correlated .333 , .395 , & .374 respectively. I think it was easy to predict that CG would regress toward the mean for his 2008 because of how well he performed in 2007. Now lets look at his UZR data. 12.1, 10.4, & -11. To regress that much completely makes no sense at all if you look at the other data available. His PO/Inn were .293, .330, & .308. So he is still making the same number of PO per inning resonably. So lets look at the other periphels available Assist’s and Errors. A’s were 3, 10, and 5. E’s where 1, 5, and 4. So 2006 was his highest UZR and the least number of errors. 2007 UZR shows the statistics ability to take in acount Assists. 2008 shows the flaw in the statistic, IMO.UZR has the same flaw that fielding percentage does by overvaluing error’s. In reality it is possible that a average centerfielder doesnt get to the balls that CG gets to.

Sam
Guest
Sam
7 years 4 months ago

Is there any way to reconcile between counting and rate statistics? ie. Total Bases and SLG. This would be especially useful for career evaluations, peak v. longevity arguments.
Thanks.

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 4 months ago

“Reconcile”? I’m not sure what that is supposed to mean here. You should choose a more appropriate word.

In any case, the “wins above replacement” is the metric of choice in terms of balancing rate stats and counting stats.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Tom, i think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. I want something for individual stat “groupings” like XBH and SLG. I think this is necessary especially for evaluations over a career. Thanks.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago

It sounds like what you want is very specific. Isn’t the data available enough for you to do what you want to do? You should provide concrete examples if you want to see something that specific implemented.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Well, Tom, let me use the Koufax example. He had a good K rate, but a low number of career K’s. And the issue isn’t data availability. The issue is I don’t know how to “combine” the rate stats and the related counting stats.

Tony
Guest
7 years 4 months ago

Tom, what is the reason for the difference in the value of a replacement player between the two leagues. Is it because there is a difference in the quality of play, or because in the NL there is a lot more subs because of the pitcher batting?

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 4 months ago

There are better players in the AL than NL.

Brian
Guest
Brian
7 years 4 months ago

Here’s a question: Are there park effects on UZR and Plus/Minus besides the “Manny Correction” that accounts for giant walls? Presumably playing 81 games in Wrigley is going to have a different effect on your stats than playing your home games in Florida or San Francisco or Houston, right? Specifically I’m thinking about outfielders since infields are pretty standard besides foul territory.

Brian
Guest
Brian
7 years 4 months ago

I guess infields aren’t entirely standard. Turf vs. grass. The quality of the turf. All these things are variable, I suppose.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago
Brian
Guest
Brian
7 years 4 months ago

Thanks, TangoTiger. I’m buying a copy of The Book for everyone I know.

Sam
Guest
Sam
7 years 4 months ago

Also, what is the formula for calculating league wOBA?

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago

Same as for players though it may exclude pitchers.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

Could I reverse engineer it, or would the numbers be skewed? Not that I would, just wondering.

Dylan
Guest
Dylan
7 years 4 months ago

I’ve been trying to figure out how UZR/150 is calculated from UZR.

It seems as though it would be simple, but I’m not sure if it’s based off of expected innings played in 150 games as a starter, or what.

So I’m curious as to how that is calculated.

I’m sure I could figure it out myself, but once I saw this I couldn’t resist.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago

“DG” is defensive games and that’s the denominator.

Dylan
Guest
Dylan
7 years 4 months ago

Wow, thanks.

Can’t believe I never saw the DG.

Mike D.
Guest
Mike D.
7 years 4 months ago

I can.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago

Things move VERY FAST on Fangraphs. Kinda like arriving at a party late, or being in the wrong room when the action happens.

Here is the blog post that David had on UZR:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-on-fangraphs/

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Tom, any chance of a new book?

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 4 months ago

99.44% nope.

Thanks for the interest though.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

And by the way, on the Little Things, change it to RE24-wRAA.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Wow, that was stupid. FORGET I EVER SAID THAT

Trey
Guest
Trey
7 years 4 months ago

NEVER

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

You better!

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Any chance of commenting on the scoreboard, and adding live updates of all your stats to the game?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 4 months ago

Yes to the commenting.

Probably no to the all of the stats. There’s certain things that don’t come in live, so we can’t add those and other things take too much processing power to calculate on the fly, so those can’t be added either. What’s in the boxscore pages is pretty much what I have to work with, though there might be slightly more this year.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

Maybe just wOBA and FIP and the standard stats? And possibly making the graph interactive? I realize how hard most of this stuff is, but I’m just wonderin’.
Thanks guys, and keep up the great work.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 4 months ago

What about game score?

Steve Shane
Guest
Steve Shane
7 years 4 months ago

Tom,

I have a couple questions about FIP…
Isnt the name Fielding Independent Pitching misleading? “FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” Shouldnt the FIP formula incorporate some form of stats to account for the defense being played?

I did a real quick look at the 08 marlins

here are the ERA/FIP of the 10+ GS pitchers from FLA last year-the worst defensive team IMO
Olsen-4.20/5.02
Nolasco-3.52/3.77
Miller-5.87/4.00
Hendrickson-5.45/4.76
Johsnon-3.61/3.37
Volstad-2.88/3.82
Sanchez-5.57/4.87

If anything, FIP suggests the marlins might have a good defense, but I dont think many people would make that claim.

Anecdotally, it seems a lot pitchers with ERAs>5.00 have much lower FIPs, is this just coincidence?

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
7 years 4 months ago

I don’t understand the question.

Colin Wyers
Guest
7 years 4 months ago

The idea is to look at how the player would perform on a neutral defensive team. We don’t want to penalize the Marlins’ pitchers for their poor fielders, since that’s not something they can control.

As far as FIP for 5+ ERA pitchers being lower, well, sure. There’s two reasons for it:

1) Those pitchers tend to be unlucky in the play of their fielders – the range of pitching performances is smaller once fielding is removed.
2) FIP is linear, while pitching isn’t. So the spread of FIP is (slightly) smaller than it would be in reality.

Steve Shane
Guest
Steve Shane
7 years 4 months ago

Tom,

Let me try to clarify, I know what Im trying to ask, but maybe its hard for me to type it concisely.

If FIP was truly a “defensive independent” stat, why does FIP stat say that Olsen, Nolasco, Volstad benefitted from the defense being played behind them when, at least to me, was among the worst, if not the worst in baseball? Shouldnt their FIP be lower than their ERA?

Also, it seems due to the formula used, its very hard for a pitcher to have a FIP over 5.00, while in real life, pitchers have ERAs > 5.00 bc they arent good, not because their defense performed poorly.

My original post was also asking you to comment on the phenomenon of many pitchers with ERAs > 5.00 have a FIP < ERA.

Colin Wyers
Guest
7 years 4 months ago

I absolutely hate these kinds of discussions, because you’re trying to start from a conclusion and back into a process. That rarely works well.

For what it’s worth, the Marlins were essentially average in UZR.

Team FIP for the Marlins was 4.58, compared to the team ERA of 4.76. (I used 3.46 as the constant, to line everything up with the 2008 NL.) That’s probably within the margin of error.

Steve Shane
Guest
Steve Shane
7 years 4 months ago

My last comments for me on the subject, Is there a link discussing where the constants from the FIP formula came from, I tried searching tangotiger.net but couldnt find it?

To paint a more complete picture in 08, FLA was below league avg in UZR, 3rd worst in OOZ, 2nd in TE, worse than avg in FE, 4th worst in INF UZR & OOZ, above avg in OF UZR, and below avg in OF OOZ.

Why did you use a constant of 3.46 for the NL in 2008? Using the FIP formula that doesnt account for IBB or HBP, the constant would be 3.22, using the FIP formula that does account for IBB or HBP, the constant would be 3.21.

Still using the 3.2 constant, FLAs 2008 ERA was 4.44, their FIP, using both formulas was 4.31 and 4.30, both much less than their team ERA. Using the 3.22 and 3.21 constant the FIPs would be 4.33 and 4.31.

To me, it seems you changed the constant in order to make the data fit ia essentially is statistical “cheating”.

Finally, I dont know where you got the 4.76 ERA for the marlins but thats not correct.

Steve Shane
Guest
Steve Shane
7 years 4 months ago

Im stupid,

In my last post I disproved my own point, so basically you can ignore it but I still would like to know where the constants from the FIP formula came from.

Colin Wyers
Guest
7 years 4 months ago

Because I looked at RA instead of ERA. I apologize for the confusion.

Steve Wower
Guest
Steve Wower
7 years 4 months ago

WAR makes sense when talking about how much money player A is worth versus player B (i.e. players production can be compared on an apples to apples basis).

But when looking at real wins and the pythag (RS/RA), position adjustments aren’t really kosher are they? By that I mean a shortstop didn’t contribute 15 more runs to the RA/RS difference than a corner outfielder just because of the position he played. His production may be more valuable money wise because of where on the field it came from but there is no difference between a +10 bat/+10 glove at short vs a +10 bat/+10 glove when it comes to a team’s won-loss record.

Would you agree?

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 3 months ago

No.

Steve Wower
Guest
Steve Wower
7 years 4 months ago

That should have read: “His production may be more valuable money wise because of where on the field it came from but there is no difference between a +10 bat/+10 glove at short vs a +10 bat/+10 glove in leftfield when it comes to a team’s won-loss record.

Joel
Guest
Joel
7 years 3 months ago

I dont think it affects the overall production of the team, but finding a +10 bat/glove in the corner outfield is a hell of a lot easier than finding a +10 bat/glove at SS, and thus the SS is more valuable

Joel
Guest
Joel
7 years 3 months ago

Is there a statistic that quantifies the affect a baserunner has on a pitcher? For instance does the threat of Jose Reyes stealing a base cause the pitcher to become distracted and more prone to give up hits? Comparing a players stats with a basestealer on versus without a basestealer on might tell the affect potential stealers have on a pitcher

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 3 months ago

See study in The Book, basestealing chapter.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

Any chance we can keep/ put up all future and past projections?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 3 months ago

If you mean can I put up the 2007 & 2008 projections, then probably not. Chances are after the 2009 season I’ll remove the 2009 projections for the 2010 ones. If you want to see older projections, you can probably find them on the authors original sites.

Steve Wower
Guest
Steve Wower
7 years 3 months ago

What is the random variation that should be expected in different things like BA. OBP, SLG, wOBA etc? I know it should depend upon sample size but how can it be calculated?

TangoTiger
Guest
TangoTiger
7 years 3 months ago

1 SD = sqrt(p*q/n)

n=AB or PA as the case may be

p = success divided by n
q = 1-p

Now, this works for BA and OBP. For wOBA, q=1.1-p. For SLG, that’s more complicated.

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

and the uncertainty in x-bar is x-bar over radical n?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

Shouldn’t estimators for pitchers be non-linear because pitchers create their own environments?

lookatthosetwins
Guest
lookatthosetwins
7 years 3 months ago

How do first basemen get a rating for double play rate? I saw Justin Morneau had a 0.8 run boost for DPR. This sure isn’t a large boost, but I can’t imagine how he could have contributed a run by adding double plays. Does his scooping ability on double plays really add a run of value? Or is this just random variation?

Samg
Guest
Samg
7 years 3 months ago

I think we need a positional adjustment for pitchers.

David
Guest
David
7 years 3 months ago

Any chance of Fangraphs adding a play by play baserunning stat?
It’s somewhat annoying to go to BP for their baserunning stats in order to get the complete picture of a player’s value.

Hizouse
Guest
Hizouse
7 years 3 months ago

Why do BB% and K% (for batters) not have the same denominator?

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 3 months ago

The reasoning behind this is that you can’t strike out if you’re not swinging the bat or not getting pitches to actually hit, so K% is per AB and BB% is per PA. The point is to try and isolate ability to make contact with the ball using traditional stats as opposed to actual swing/miss rates.

Hizouse
Guest
Hizouse
7 years 3 months ago

Thanks!

kensai
Guest
7 years 3 months ago

I had 3 questions, if you have the time.

> 1. I know wRAA is not park adjusted, but is wOBA park adjusted on a
> player’s page?
>
> 2. I heard UZR is not adjusted by position like Plus/Minus is. Is there
> any truth to that? If so, what is it normalized against?
>
> 3. Positional Adjustment Runs
>
> I’m a bit confused by how these are given out.
>
> In a post by Dave Cameron, he says that the positional adjustments are for
> 150 games played.
>
> Yet, when I look at player page like Adrian Gonzalez, I see that he is
> only given -12.5 runs despite playing in 161 games, starting 159, and
> playing 1417.1 innings. More confusing is that he started 161 games last
> year, played more innings, but was given -12.4 runs positional adjustment.
>
> Is there a cap on the positional adjustments unlike replacement level
> adjustments? Even so, why would Gonzalez get 0.1 more credit for playing
> more innings in 2007 over 2008?
>
> I’m confused by that. Maybe i’m looking at it completely wrong. Thanks in
> advance.

David Appelman
Admin
Member
7 years 3 months ago

1. wOBA is not park adjusted on the player pages. “Batting” under the player value section is park adjusted wRAA.

2. UZR is absolutely adjusted by position. It’s set up so that it’s based against the average at each individual position, not all the positions combined.

3. Positional run adjustments are based on these: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/confused-says-what-getting-to-know-fangraphs-stats/#comment-55754

Those positional adjustments I linked to are per 162 games, which is what we’re using for the calculations so that’s why he’s at -12.5 for 161 games played (rounded to the nearest .1 on the player page). I see where in the Cameron article it said 150, but that’s now fixed.

It’s based on games and not innings for simplicity and to keep the DH positional adjustment easier to handle.

kensai
Guest
7 years 3 months ago

Thank you very much, this clears up a ton of confusion for me.

Tonia Nappi
Guest
Tonia Nappi
6 years 4 months ago

Hi I found this site when i was searching yahoo for this

JayCee
Guest
JayCee
6 years 4 months ago

A question about park effects:

Take Old Yankee Stadium. Because of the short porch in right field, the Yankees specialize in either left-handed pitchers or pitchers who can keep left-handed batters from pulling the ball. Does this mitigate the computed park effect? It’s my understanding visiting team stats are often used, because they are a better sample. So would Yankee Stadium end up looking neutral, and thus the hitting of left-handed Yankes appear to be better than it is, becuase the Yankees batters are not facing specialized pitching staffs?

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