The World Champion San Francisco Giants



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Sensual Sharting
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Sensual Sharting
3 years 11 months ago

Ugh… down looking.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

I thought when the Cabrera home run went out that the Tigers, having finally caught their first real break, would at least make it a series. Then they proceed to blow a few more opportunities and the Giants bloop two singles for a run. Yeah so much for that.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

I saw some pretty excellent pitching and defensive plays that caused those blown opportunities.

Slats
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Slats
3 years 11 months ago

Experts Before Game 1: Verlander has this easy.

Experts Before Game 2: Tigers will bounce back.

Experts Before Game 3: No way Tigers lose at home.

Experts Before Game 4: The series isn’t over yet.

How stupid can these people get?

RationalSportsFan
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3 years 11 months ago

I was with you until your final sentence. Instead you should have asked, “How crazy and awesome is baseball?”

NBarnes
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NBarnes
3 years 11 months ago

Kindly point me to your well-researched blog post in which you presented the airtight case for a Giants sweep. I am very curious to see your reasoning.

Well-Beered Englishman
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Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 11 months ago

Actually, before game 4, the series wasn’t over yet.

Rippers
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Rippers
3 years 11 months ago

I’d like to get into Ashley Chavez’s woman cave.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

Baseball!

Tom
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Tom
3 years 11 months ago

Where does this rank in terms of the least competitive World Series in MLB history? Can we get an article on that?

And please don’t take this as a trolling comment or whatever. I’m genuinely interested.

Tyler
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Tyler
3 years 11 months ago

Over at the Hardball Times someone wrote on this, although it covers the entire postseason and not just the World Series.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/article/the-10-worst-postseason-sweeps-ever/#comments

Check it out it is a great read.

Orfo
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Orfo
3 years 11 months ago

Grant Brisbee @ SB Nation also wrote about the series in the context of all WS sweeps. The verdict: meh.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/10/30/3575174/engage-the-sweep-o-meter

Rippers
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Rippers
3 years 11 months ago

The Giants would’ve made the playoffs in any division in baseball.The Tigers wouldn’t even have qualified for the 2nd Wild-Card if not for being in AL Central. Stop with the luck thing please, Tigers are a good team, but how about a little props for The Giants.

RationalSportsFan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Giants don;t make the playoffs out of the AL East, unless you want to 100% ignore opponent strength.

Still, congrats to the Giants.

Matthias
Member
Member
3 years 11 months ago

Side note to RationalSportsFan:

The AL West was likely the toughest division in baseball.

Matthias
Member
Member
3 years 11 months ago

Stupid italics.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

Ok, should we go into the relative strength between the NL and AL? At best the Giants were slightly better as a team, at best. Certainly not enough to sweep a series this convincingly without a lot of luck. You can still give props to the Giants while acknowledging that they needed a lot of good fortune for this outcome.

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

No more so than the Cardinals last year or the Giants in 2010 or any other team that gets through 3 rounds of playoffs to win. Do you really think that a team that wins the WS series twice in 3 years is doing mostly with luck?

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

Let’s see, the NL has won the last 3 All-Star games and the last 3 World Series. They are definitely the superior league!

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

Did I say that or did I say that you need luck to 1. win a world series and 2. to do so in a sweep?

The Giants honestly have been very lucky in the past three seasons. Even assuming they had say a 55% win odd in any given series over three years. The odds of them winning even one world series was less than 50%. They won two. They have been very lucky. Luck is required to win a world series, get over it.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

Well DB you just lost all credibility with that statement regarding world series and all star wins. I hope for your sake that was a joke.

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

Granted winning a WS requires a combination of skill and luck, but when you do it twice in 3 years, the balance tilts more toward skill.

Theoretical
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Theoretical
3 years 11 months ago

They made their own luck.

Really REALLY REALLY sound fundamentals provides you with the kind of pitching and defense that you can relax and be loose on offense and take whatever is available, knowing that any lead is holdable and any deficit will be minimal. Fireman Lincecum means your short relievers (save Romo) stay rested but available rather than going three times in a row. It’s also not like individual hitters in the lineup didn’t have slumps either, it’s just that they manufactured enough runs to win, even if it’s just 1-2. By having a balanced offense, you reduce the effect of slump luck and increase the odds of different kinds of flukes going your way.

On offense, having guys with lots of different offensive approaches troubles pitchers and forces them to trust their defenses, which in the case of the Tigers was abominable. The Tigers’ starters have nothing to be ashamed of in this series. It falls to the hitters. And that’s where the Tigers played high-stakes gambling by having so much poured into Cabrera/Fielder. Because they have to carry so much, if either goes in a slump, that’s bad news and weighs against postseason luck.

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

The Tigers scored exactly one run in the entire series that was not the result of a HR. Defense suppresses BABIP and that’s not luck!

Jon L.
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Jon L.
3 years 11 months ago

Dr. B. is right! Getting 11 heads in less than 20 coin flips once probably does require some luck, but doing it twice in three tries is pure skill.

Jon L.
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Jon L.
3 years 11 months ago

(The Giants played some terrific baseball! I’m just commenting on that one line of reasoning.)

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

So you think getting through a full baseball season, doing well enough to win your division and advance in the playoffs is pretty much the same a flipping coins? Come on, dude! That is ridiculous!

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Winning a World Series is actually closer to flipping a coin 20 times and getting heads 20 times than 11 out of 20. You do that twice in 3 tries and it might be due to luck but it’s much more likely due to a weighted coin.

Bubba
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Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

Anybody who believes lucks is a significant reason a team wins the World Series twice in three years is SERIOUSLY delusional.

RC
Member
Member
RC
3 years 11 months ago

I think it’s fair to say that some luck is required for ANY team to win the World Series, even if they are the most talented team in baseball. The Giants winning twice in 2 years certainly means they are a very talented team, because even with luck it’s not easy to get there. But it also means that they had a least a little luck on their side, just as every team that’s won the WS in the past 20 years.

Matt
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Matt
3 years 11 months ago

“Ok, should we go into the relative strength between the NL and AL?”

Yes, please do. Be sure to focus on the relative strength of the AL Central.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
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3 years 11 months ago

I think what gets lost by the Naysayers when they bring up luck, is that all teams winning the World Series has to have some luck to get there and win that.

What they don’t get is that by pushing that mantra, that implies that nobody earned that World Series championship, because it was just luck. That was the line in 2010 when the Giants won that championship. They don’t realize how insulting that is to the players.

Each championship includes a good dollop of luck, but if these games are to have any meaning at all, you have to appreciate that there was a lot of talent involved as well, else all you are saying is that we could program a computer to play the games for us and it will be the same. It ignores the human factor that kicks in when one player feels the butterflies and the other is chomping on his bit. Or when one champion faces another and one of them fails and the other succeeds.

It ignores that the most recent studies on playoff success found that pitching is what really drives a lot of the results in these games – both BP and THT studied playoff success and found that it was ALL pitching and fielding, and basically zero for offense. All I read about is how vaunted the Tigers offense is and how they failed in the World Series. When all the recent research clearly shows that it is not that their offense failed, it is that the Giants pitching and fielding prevailed, more so than the Tigers pitching and defense.

It was not luck that the Giants assembled a great starting rotation and bullpen, plus installed good fielders across their lineup, along with good hitters. Brian Sabean put that all together. He kept these pitchers even when the world thought he should trade some of it for hitting. Then he put together the hitters to go with the pitchers. That is not all luck, there were a lot of good decisions made there.

Hopefully Baseball Prospectus will finally come out with an open apology to Brian Sabean and all Giants fans for openly asking for Brian Sabean to be fired in their 2010 Annual’s chapter on the Giants. I refused to buy that when I saw that in there, I had bought them for years until that. They didn’t have the balls to do it after 2010, let’s see if they are humble enough to do it after this one.

It was not luck that the Giants win so many games with their personnel. They regularly beat teams by one-run, this season they were at +10 and above again. Bruce Bochy has a career long history of defying the one-run rule that teams regress to .500 in one-run games, he is 81 games above .500 in his career as manager, averaging more than 4 extra wins per season. It is not luck that Bochy has out-managed the other teams left and right. Giants fans have seen this change he makes, during the regular season, he’s just trying to last the season and end up on top, but when the home stretch comes up, he starts managing as if every game must be won OR ELSE. He’ll sit regulars (even in the playoffs, Sandoval) or leave a veteran starter off the playoff roster (Zito) and manage as if his life depended upon winning that game. That’s a killer’s instinct that I found lacking in Baker and Alou, that I learned to appreciate late in the 2010 season when it first came out. None of that is luck.

JS7
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JS7
3 years 11 months ago

Bumgarner: 15 WS innings pitched, no runs allowed.

Mediocre at best.

joe
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joe
3 years 11 months ago

yeah i think i saw someone on the Detroit SB Nation site complain about getting beat by mediocre pitchers in Games 1, 2, 3 – implying Bumgarner but apparently they didnt care to check his season or they would have seen he was 14-7 with a roughly 2.80 ERA around early August iirc until he either had mechanical problems or fatigue. same thing with Vogelsong, had about 6 bad starts late in the year before getting righted in his last 3 regular season starts and of course he continued that success in the playoffs.

Curt Schilling
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Curt Schilling
3 years 11 months ago

The Giants got a very lucky sweep.

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

Oh yeah, they got lucky in 2010 too. It’s all luck. Everything that happens in baseball is luck. Bwahahahahaha!

JS7
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JS7
3 years 11 months ago

You realise Schilling is a Giants hater?

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

I think that’s pretty obvious. He can just wallow in his miserable excuses about luck. Enjoy your offseason, Schilling!

Well-Beered Englishman
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Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 11 months ago

I think we can all agree on a bit of a compromise here. The Giants did indeed benefit from a lot of luck this postseason. Hunter Pence’s triple-hit, Angel Pagan’s double off third base, the weirdness of Barry Zito getting an RBI single off Justin Verlander: clearly the baseball gods were smiling on San Francisco. However, if you believe in such a thing as the baseball gods and/or karma, they were smiling on San Francisco because San Francisco plays damn good baseball. Yeah, the team benefited from some crazy breaks, but they also created their own luck by playing like the very best.

Candlestick
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Candlestick
3 years 11 months ago

Every team has some luck when they win a championship. Great teams put themselves in the position to capitalize when the breaks come their way.

By the way, not a bad run for an organization that Fangraphs earlier this year ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams.

Scott
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Scott
3 years 11 months ago

Candlestick: No, the organization didn’t rank 29th. The front office was ranked somewhere around 27th or 28th (which was ridiculous), but the team as a whole was ranked around 12, I think.

fergie348
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fergie348
3 years 11 months ago

Heck of a game – you got the feeling that if the Tigers could just win this one they’d make a series of it with Verlander highly motivated coming back in game 5. The Giants – as they do – never let up and used defense, pitching and some timely small ball to scratch another one on the big cats. Pitching and defense, that’s how we do it. You know what? Especially in the playoffs, it works.. Good luck Mr. Dombrowski with the overpaid DH playing first you’ve got there. You guys would be hell to beat in a fast pitch softball league..

joe
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joe
3 years 11 months ago

dombrowski looked like a pompous a$$ when they showed him at ATT Park. i dont get any enjoyment from Leyland or the Tigers losing but its fine with me that that tool lost. Same thing with that arrogant looking GM from the Rangers a few years ago. too bad for them.

Seideberg
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Seideberg
3 years 11 months ago

The best part about this world series was the fact that we never again have to hear about how Cabrera stepped up and carried his team when they needed him the most.

Yellowbelly
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Yellowbelly
3 years 11 months ago

But his defense is actually good cuz i sawed him play. all u stat heads think with your brains instead of ur gut. My beer gut > nerd gut

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

The Tigers would not have been even in the World Series without Miguel Cabrera.

Show some respect for an all-time great.

Mike
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Mike
3 years 11 months ago

I think you mean the tigers would not have been in the World Series if they didn’t play in the worst division in baseball.

Florida Marlins
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Florida Marlins
3 years 11 months ago

You do realize that Cabrera played a huge role as a rookie batting clean up when the Marlins beat the Yankees, right? My guess is you are too young to know.

Seideberg
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Seideberg
3 years 11 months ago

That is very relevant to the discussion on this year’s MVP. Thanks for bringing it up!

Why exactly do you think I am too young to remember 2003?

Mike
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Mike
3 years 11 months ago

Congrats to the Giants

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

Fangraphs staff should be ecstatic about this World Series as a shining example of how the experts overlooked defensive metrics when they made their predictions of who was going to win this thing. The difference between these two teams season UZR’s was vast and it was the difference in the series.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

You and this running narrative. This is based on what exactly? Honestly please point to some examples since in a 4 game series you don’t have UZR at your disposal to make your point. Where were the huge defensive plays that won this series for the Giants so convincingly? I mean you do realize your relative UZR differences between the two clubs over the course of an entire season translates to less than a quarter of a run per game right?

Lan
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Lan
3 years 11 months ago

Just in game 4, Sandoval made one great play and Crawford made two. While on the flip side you had Cabrera choke on one.

I think you missed the main point: The better defensive team won, and that in general defense is still undervalued by the talking heads.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

Defense may be underrated by the mainstream media but it is not underrated here. The Giants were a better defensive team but that’s not what won them this series.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

You really seem bitter about something, Colin? You a Tigers fan or something? Team UZR data from the season shows convincingly that the Giants are an above average defensive team while the Tigers are terrible. I think that difference showed up on the field in this series and was a significant difference maker. Blanco’s catches, Crawford’s and Scutaro’s defense up the middle, Belt’s play at 1B, Buster’s swipe tag, defensive positioning that was noted by several expert commentators, the list goes on an on. Yeah, the Tigers made a few good plays to, but they also made a lot more defensive mistakes than the Giants and did not make nearly as many outstanding plays.

Sure, Sandoval’s HRs were the difference in Game 1, but even they might not have won the game without several great defensive plays by the Giants and some miscues by the Tigers that helped the Giants add on more runs. The rest of the series was one by pitching and defense, simple as that.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

DB it’s a simple as I don’t like people trying to make points without any support or that don’t really make much sense. There really wasn’t a ‘huge’ UZR difference as you suggested. The relative difference was approximately 34 runs over a 162 game season. The Giants were slightly above the middle while the Tigers were about 26 or so.

Further as it relates to this series, unless every game was won by one run, it really was not the difference. Sandoval’s 3 dingers won game 1. I can’t personally recall any big “difference makers” from games 2 or 3 that really cost the Tigers runs or saved the Giants runs, and Game 4 was home runs and a couple bloop singles.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

What series were you watching? There were several difference makers on defense for the Giants every game. The Tigers scored exactly 1 run in the series that was not directly the result of a HR. The Giants defense suppresed the Tigers BABIP.

Bubba
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Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

Are you joking Colin? Or just drunk?

Larry Yocum
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Larry Yocum
3 years 11 months ago

Colin, let’s start with just Gregor Blanco

Both of those diving catches probably fall in for hits most of the time and likely start a rally. If he doesn’t make that play off the wall and Scutaro doesn’t throw out Prince, the Tigers would have been leading game 2 with a runner on second and no outs. If he doesn’t make that play in the corner the other night, Detroit gets another shot in that AB. Blanco made at least 4 plays that may have been game changers.

Crawford was amazing at SS, making several exceptional plays. Pablo had multiple diving stops and actually made his play on the bunt last night instead of letting it roll because he couldn’t get to it. The Giants were flawless on the double plays and Belt was picking pretty much everything.

The defense mattered for the Giants throughout the postseason. There were several exceptional plays that saved runs.

Factor in the plays that Detroit didn’t make. Delmon Young throwing a grounder in from left field. Hoping the bunt goes foul. All of the infield hits the Giants were able to get that prolonged ralleys. There was a huge gap in this series between the defense and the bullpens of both teams and it played a huge role in the series.

joe
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joe
3 years 11 months ago

agree with Larry Yocum there. Blanco made at least 3 catches that most LFers dont as well as the play where Fielder was thrown out at the plate and then Crawford was excellent as wre the rest of the infield.

The Tigers weren’t hurt by their defense as much as i thought they would be although i wonder why Jackson didn’t try to dive on the Scutaro GW hit in Game 4. Thats the series there if it falls in and he seems to have problem moving in on the play.

there was quite a bit of bad luck by the Tigers including it seemed that several of Peralta’s shots should have left the yard but they also benefited from the bounce off Pagans glove for the HR in Game 1.

Warriors
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Warriors
3 years 11 months ago

Can we all take a minute to laugh at the Dodgers HAHAHA.

Blurs
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Blurs
3 years 11 months ago

Yankees too!

Peter
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Peter
3 years 11 months ago

LOL. Best Post Here.

Chummy Z
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Chummy Z
3 years 11 months ago

Congrats to the Giants, but this was arguably one of the most boring postseasons ever once the Division series ended. T’was less about dominant pitching and more about offensive futility on the part of all losing teams (Cards, Yanks, Tigers). That’s no fun. I don’t care who won, but fun is important, and the LCS and WS were not very fun.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

It sure was exciting for me!

Chummy Z
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Chummy Z
3 years 11 months ago

Maybe some bias? Haha, to me, fun is more about the competition, and after the LDS, there really was no competition whatsoever (even the if the NLCS went to game 7, the games themselves weren’t very competitive).

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

I thought Games 2, 3 and 4 were very competitive. The Giants were just a little better in each one.

nilbog44
Member
nilbog44
3 years 11 months ago

It’s funny you think the NL is better just because of the All Star games and World Series but you completely ignore interleague play the last decade.

Sabean Wannabe
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Sabean Wannabe
3 years 11 months ago

You have to remember, “slumps” tend to happen against great pitching. Not a lot of teams went into hitting slumps against Colorado and other poor pitching teams this year. The Yankees “slump” has everything to do with Detroit’s pitching and likewise for St. Louis and Detroit against the Giants.

And yes, I can certainly see how this World Series would be boring to anyone but a Giants’ fan.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Boring? The Giants pull off one of the rarest comebacks, down 3-1, with Barry Zito pitching the first elimination game? Tight 2-0 games, plus and extra-inning nail-biter?

But I do see your point. Good pitching is usually boring, because they tend to stifle competition. So here’s a old Chinese curse for you: may your favorite team be blessed with an unboring season every year.

That’s why you don’t get. It is not offensive futility, it’s defensive utility. As I noted above, studies of success in the playoffs show that it is all pitching and fielding, basically nothing due to offense. Please, go ahead and tell Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times that their studies are baloney. It’s funny how suddenly good offensive teams are futile against great pitching.

That’s the problem with many fans, they can appreciate slugfests like the ones the Giants had in 2002, because that’s “fun”, but when two good teams battle it out to a 2-0 score, that’s “boring”. That’s why the media keep on harping on how power the Tigers offense is and yak on and on about Sandoval’s 12 homers, not realizing that he was injured for large portions of the season, then recovering from the injures for another large part of the season, forgetting that he’s already had two seasons with over 20 homers, and that when he is on, he’s the equal of any power hitter in the majors today (he had 8 HR in June 2009, 7 HR in Sept 2011, and had ended the season with 4 homers in 44 AB (or 11 AB/HR), before compiling 6 homers in 66 AB in the playoffs (or 11 AB/HR). If he could ever stay healthy for a season, and his injuries so far was not due to weight issues, he should be able to get over 30 homers and could reach 40 with a steady consistent season.

joe
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joe
3 years 11 months ago

nah, even the NLCS was kind of boring because the individual games were not that competitive even though the series itself was compelling. Same thing in the WS. i thought after the division series’ it was all kind of dull. Even began to root for the Tigers to win a few in the WS just to make it a good series and clinch on the home field at ATT.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Well done Miguel Cabrera on one of the greatest seasons in history in winning the Triple Crown.

Your AL MVP awaits.

Congratulations.

Mike Trout
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Mike Trout
3 years 11 months ago

Excuse me.

Colin
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Colin
3 years 11 months ago

I know the award hasn’t been announced yet but this is already very old. Even if Cabrera does win, it still won’t be the most egregious decision in the last 6 years (4 WAR Morneau 2006).

Lan
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Lan
3 years 11 months ago

Greatest seasons in history? It’s not even Cabrera’s best season.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Trout didn’t lead his team in HR’s or RBI’s let alone the entire AL.

Miggy had a season of ages – HITTING FOR AVERAGE & POWER WHILST ALSO BEING CLUTCH.

Miggy lead his team to the World Series – Trout could not even make the playoffs.

Miggy is AL MVP.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Instead of hating on the great Miguel Cabrera you should acknowledge how good he really is.

A once in a generation player, one of the best to have ever played the game, a sure fire Hall of Famer.

Please show love and not hate.

DrBGiantsfan
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3 years 11 months ago

Miguel Cabrera is an excellent hitter, but a terrible defensive player. That cost his team in this series.

Yellowbelly
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Yellowbelly
3 years 11 months ago

Everyone agrees Miggy is great, but if you think he should be MVP because he actually played better, you are a homer.

Lan
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Lan
3 years 11 months ago

You should read my comment without irrational hate. Miggy is awesome, so awesome that this season that he is getting all the praise for, isn’t even his best season. I said nothing about Mike Trout, calm down dude.

To call this a historic season when he does it every year, and guys like Kemp, Votta and Bautista have been doing it with him for the past three years is what I think is wrong.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Cabrera had zero errors the whole series.

Phrozen
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Phrozen
3 years 11 months ago

Why is Old School getting downvoted? I think you people are missing the point entirely.

Of course Cabrera’s not the bestest evar, but, according to old school baseball thought, he was the best this year. Really. Do you guys think that Trout’s defense and speed are gonna matter to guys like Joe Morgan?

Trout should win, but Old School is right; Cabrera’s almost certainly going to becauze dingerz. And it isn’t terrible.

Larry Yocum
Guest
Larry Yocum
3 years 11 months ago

Old School, just because he didn’t have errors, didn’t mean that the defense was clean either. It’s the Jeter rule of range. Hard to make errors on balls that you don’t get to. There were three plays that Cabrera didn’t make that a good thirdbaseman probably does make. Not fielding a bunt when everyone knows a bunt is coming. Yes, it was a perfect bunt, but everyone knew it was coming and a good defender makes the play. He let the ball play him on the Pagan hit that went off the bag. He wouldn’t have thrown him out anyway because he was too deep and he should have gotten to that ball before it ever had a chance to hit the bag. Then there was the double clutch throw last night on the infield “hit” that could have been ruled an error when he double clutched it. Range matters and a good thirdbaseman with range makes all three of those plays.

Blurs
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Blurs
3 years 11 months ago

So is Verlander pitching tomorrow?

Experts?

Peter
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Peter
3 years 11 months ago

I guarantee he won’t lose.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Not one FanGraphs ‘expert’ picked SF to win the World Series:

Ben Duronio ARZ
Bill Petti LAA
Bradley Woodrum TB
Brandon Warne TEX
Chad Young TB
Chris Benson TEX
Chris Cwik TEX
Dan Wade LAA
Dave Cameron TEX
David Laurila LAA
Eno Sarris TEX
Jeff Zimmerman LAA
Jesse Wolfersberger TB
Marc Hulet PHI
Mike Axisa NYY
Mike Petriello NYY
Paul Swydan TEX
Ryan Campbell LAA
Wendy Thurm LAA
Zach Sanders LAA

RationalSportsFan
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3 years 11 months ago

If your point is “Baseball is crazy and hard to predict” I agree.

If your point is “Fangraphs doesn’t know what they’re talking about!” I politely but emphatically disagree.

Old School
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Old School
3 years 11 months ago

No disrespect directed at FanGraphs.

Spunky
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Spunky
3 years 11 months ago

Old School, if no disrespect was directed at FanGraphs, you shouldn’t refer to the writers as “experts,” in quotation marks, as though they’re not really experts at all.

Chummy Z
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Chummy Z
3 years 11 months ago

18 of the 20 picks didn’t even make the “proper” playoffs. That’s baseball, I guess. Except for PHI and ARZ, those aren’t bad guesses.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Preseason predictions are stupid and pointless.

NBarnes
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NBarnes
3 years 11 months ago

Preseason predictions are for fun, not for serious.

And if you’re not playing for fun, you are in the wrong damn hobby.

John
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John
3 years 11 months ago

WORLD CHIZZZAMPSSS!!!!

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

The internet really doesn’t seem to like Giants fan all that much. Win one and we’re “lucky”. Win two in three years and we’re “lucky”. I’m not too familiar with the treatment of Giants fans on this site, I just hope we get treated better here than we do pretty much anywhere else.

RationalSportsFan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

The simple truth is that, in any given year, no playoff team is going to have odds greater than at most 20% to win the World Series. Who wins is usually a combination of effective performance, a little bit of BABIP help, and other teams’ ineffective performance.

If the Tigers had won, luck would have been heavily involved. The same is true with any team. This reaction is not an anti-Giants reaction. Rather, it is a recognition of how close the odds are in any given game/series.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

BABIP is not all luck. If one team has a UZR of +8.6 and the other -28.1, it does not take a huge sample size to see it make a significant difference in BABIP.

Colin
Guest
Colin
3 years 11 months ago

DB, no it doesn’t. That’s exactly why your attempt at creating a narrative on the subject is silly. The top spread between a great defensive team and the very worst defensive team might be just under .5 hits per game if you’re lucky. It’s not enough to suppress a team wide BABIP below .250 (league average is around .300) without some serious short term luck.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

If you will just stop and read what I said, I did not say that there is no luck in BABIP differences. I said it is not ALL luck! Fact: Good defense SUPPRESSES BABIP. It does not make it .000! It simply means the BABIP odds favor the better defensive team.

The difference in defense between these two teams was not the sole difference in this series but it was a significant contributing factor.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

@RationSportsFan; Oh, I totally understand that luck plays a major factor in winning a short series like this. It just seems that when it comes to the Giants, people want to contribute all of their success to luck, things like “Sabean sucks, lucky trades” or “Cain+Vogelsong+Bumgarner+Lincecum+Bullpen+AT&T=LUCKY”. There’s countless others. So yes I agree, luck is very important to any teams success in a given year, it just seems to me that it is used in a belittling fashion when it comes to my Giants.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Colin, obviously, you have not been here at this site very long. There has been huge battles here about whether Cain (and therefore Zito) is able to suppress BABIP, and how that should be handled in all the advanced sabermetric statistics that assume that a pitcher’s BABIP regresses to .300. Tangotiger has stated that it takes 6-7 season worth of starting pitcher’s stats to reach the threshold where we can say that a pitcher is capable of suppressing BABIP. Both Cain and Zito has reached that point.

It also helps when a team is good overall in defense, that also helps keep runners off the bases. The Fielding Bible’s stats for the past three season show the Giants among the best in defensive runs saved, that is a produce of team design on the part of Sabean and Bochy.

And really, comparing a team’s seasonal UZR is not really correct for analyzing where they are in the playoffs. One, there were many players not on the playoff roster that contributed or hurt their seasonal numbers. Second, players do improve, big case in point is Brandon Crawford, he was really struggling with his defense early in the season, but has been stellar since. It was that Crawford fielding in the World Series, not some composite of the regular season.

As many people have pointed out, there were plenty of situations where the Giants made good to great defensive plays that enabled them to win. Things would have been mighty different had the Tigers scored that run instead of getting thrown out at the plate by three good defensive plays, Blanco to Crawford to Posey. Teams play different when tied or leading than when they are behind by one run. Good evidence of that, the Giants were 9-1 when they scored first, which means that they were 2-4 when the other team scored first. Then the Tigers could have been 1-1 going home instead of down 2-0.

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

No, it’s pretty much the same here, but since everything in baseball is usually attributed to luck on this site, it kind of blends in with the general tenor of the place.

Brad
Guest
Brad
3 years 11 months ago

@DrBGiantsfan – while I always appreciate it when fan’s genuinely care about their teams, I find your compulsive need to defend the Giants (who don’t need it, frankly) to hide some serious “thin-skin” issues. Right now you should be cracking open a cold one, enjoying the moment.

What does it matter what others think, or why choose to be snarky when most of the posters disagreeing with you have a good point? Your team won, congrats! :)

DrBGiantsfan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Sorry if it’s coming across as thin skinned. I’m just sick of reading that Brian Sabean is one of the worst GM’s in baseball, and yes, that’s been written many times on this and other sabermetically oriented sites. I’m sick of every success they have being attributed to luck, and yes, that has also been written many times on this site including this thread. I nearly got run off this site for objecting to them being ranked as somewhere in the mid 20’s as an organization before the 2010 season. If being a bit outraged at all that is thin skin, then I guess I’m thin skinned. I certainly have never tried to hide my unabashed fandom so as always, I wear the bias label proudly. Oh, and don’t worry, I am enjoying this golden era of Giants baseball immensely. Never had more fun as a baseball fan in my life. Thanks for your concern, though.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

@DrB; My thoughts exactly. Yes there is luck involved, but to contribute all of the Giants success to luck is ridiculous, yet it seems that is what the vast majority of people I have encountered on the internet have done.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

We defend the Giants because the team generally do not get much love from the expert sites, BP, THT, Fangraphs, Baseball Analysts, the ESPN sites. In fact, as I noted above, Baseball Prospectus took the usual route of advising that Sabean be fired in their 2010 Annual’s chapter on the Giants. So if we are a little thin-skinned about it, that’s the context.

Meanwhile, I’ve been singing the praises for Sabean for all his career, but particularly starting in 2007 post season, when a local writer asked how the Giants were going to win now that Barry was gone, and I answered “pitching, pitching, and more pitching.”

And I was getting crap, crap, and more crap, and even after 2010’s championship it continued. And that was from Giants fans.

Ultimately, though, all I care about is accuracy about what is being said. I just felt that there was a lot of inaccuracies being said about the Giants. There is too much “luck” being thrown out by people. Are you really going to belittle each team’s championship by calling it “luck”? Then why are you following the games then?

People are getting too close to the numbers to see the humanity involved. Luck is luck, but that is why the games are played, as it is what it is, a game played by humans. But it is not luck that Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, and heck, Zito, pitched well, they regularly do that during the season, during their careers. Some luck, yes, where the balls fall, but not luck that they strike out a lot of hitters, not luck that some of their BABIP are significantly under .300, not luck that their ERA’s are so good generally.

Pitchers control the game, but it is up to the hitters to take advantage of the pitchers mistakes. And Sandoval is one of the better ones to do that in recent years. Is that luck? I don’t think so. Is it luck that the Giants pitchers make less mistakes to opposing batters? That they, as Fangraphs research showed, allow less homers per flyball than any other team, not just one pitcher, Matt Cain? I don’t think so.

But people are so blinded by all the talk about DIPS and random luck with where batted balls go and the randomness involved with the playoffs, to remember all the things that pitchers and hitters can control that is not all luck, that there are definitely a lot of things under the control of the players that show up during the games, that you can’t just flippantly dismiss one team or another as “lucky”.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

@obsessivegiantscompulsive; YES! so much yes!

Rippers
Guest
Rippers
3 years 11 months ago

Ironic that the Giants won today in Football & Baseball and Romo was the clincher in both games.

Blurs
Guest
Blurs
3 years 11 months ago

Classic!

Peter
Guest
Peter
3 years 11 months ago

Nice

BIP
Guest
BIP
3 years 11 months ago

That’s not irony

Bubba
Guest
Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

That was outstanding!

Dave Cameraman
Guest
Dave Cameraman
3 years 11 months ago

Tigers in 5

MVPosey
Guest
MVPosey
3 years 11 months ago

I don’t always finish the season, but when I do, I win a CHAMPIONSHIP.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

Awesome

Bubba
Guest
Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

Beyond Outstanding!

Gigs
Guest
Gigs
3 years 11 months ago

This site and commenters are so great – but with all due respect, those of you claiming the Giants did not win this WS and the NLCS on superior defense, you’re blind or selectively recalling. By my count, at least 10 defensive plays that their opponent wouldn’t have made resulted in an out (or extra out) instead of advancing base runners or a score. Sure, Detroit’s 3-4-5 got cold, but come on. That was an incredible team effort, and so healthy for baseball in the era of huge contracts for sluggers.

RationalSportsFan
Guest
3 years 11 months ago

Congrats to the Giants. They played amazingly well.

But please list these 10 plays that the Giants made that their opponent definitely would not have made.

Paul
Guest
Paul
3 years 11 months ago

All plays at LF, 3B and some at SS

baseball man
Guest
baseball man
3 years 11 months ago

Well for starters the 2 diving plays by Blanco in game one, and Blanco running down the fly ball in the corner for the first out in the 9th of game three. Delmon Young doesnt make those plays.

At the shortstop position tonight Crawford barehanded the ball up the middle after the deflection off the mound to retire the #2 hitter and strand Cabrera in the on deck circle to end an inning. Contrast with Peralta who got a late jump and was slow in transition on an infield hit by Crawford during tonight’s game.

Then the double play that resulted when Fielder grounded to Scutaro early in game 3. Crawford’s arm strength was all that enabled that turn.

I think DrB is going a little over the top … but its not hard to see that there was a huge defensive disparity in this series. These were just the top of mind ones.

baseball man
Guest
baseball man
3 years 11 months ago

I think the next frontier for defensive measurement might be positioning. We can use our eyeballs to assess the range and athletism of these players, but how do we judge the coaching staff and scouts on their defensive positioning?

Bubba
Guest
Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

Seriously. Stick with “luck” as a jab at the Giants.

Failing to acknowledge truly outstanding D, is beyond belief.

Adding to plays the Tigers would not have made, add Belt’s leaping grab tonight. Fielder doesn’t get off the ground for that one.

joe
Guest
joe
3 years 11 months ago

don’t forget Crswford’s diving stop on Cabrera, up the middle. i forget which game it was but it was a pretty big play. Sandoval’s diving grab of Cabrera’s liner also. looking back you can see that both Cabrera and Fielder got robbed at least twice each.

Old School
Guest
Old School
3 years 11 months ago

Miguel Cabrera

2012 League Ranks:
• 1st in AL in BA (.330)
• 1st in AL in HR (44)
• 1st in AL in RBI (139)
• 2nd in AL in R (109)
• 1st in AL in SLG (.606)
• 1st in AL in OPS (.999)

2012 AL MVP.

JS7
Guest
JS7
3 years 11 months ago

Just give it up already man.

Yellowbelly
Guest
Yellowbelly
3 years 11 months ago

Below average defender and base runner

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
3 years 11 months ago

man, why would you even bring that into a discussion about the Most Valuable Pitch-hitter

kiss my GO NATS
Guest
kiss my GO NATS
3 years 11 months ago

that is like saying you prefer to have a fire in the middle your home with a hole in your roof rather than a fireplace. That is old school, but plainly not the better choice once you understand science.

Incognito Ivan
Guest
Incognito Ivan
3 years 11 months ago

Come on already, stop feeding this troll.

Westside guy
Member
Member
Westside guy
3 years 11 months ago

Come on, let the Giants fans enjoy the afterglow of their team’s victory. Save the stats arguments for tomorrow.

Congratulations Giants – I hope my Mariners get there some day…

Rippers
Guest
Rippers
3 years 11 months ago

Seattle Mariners 2013!

JS7
Guest
JS7
3 years 11 months ago

Barry Zito is forgiven!

ThirteenOfTwo
Guest
ThirteenOfTwo
3 years 11 months ago

So based on this year’s Orioles and Athletics rising to the playoffs, I predict the Houston Astros will win the 2013 World Series.

joe
Guest
joe
3 years 11 months ago

wow, you’d better get to Vegas then and put some cash on what must be 500 to 1 or longer odds.

Shrewd Cat
Guest
Shrewd Cat
3 years 11 months ago

Miguel Cabrera done his best Carlos Beltran impersonation – he’s still looking at that strike.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKlmrrsvhjw

Anon21
Guest
Anon21
3 years 11 months ago

Welcome to the long, dark winter of no baseball, people who cared about this. We’ve kept the chairs warm for you.

Shankbone
Guest
Shankbone
3 years 11 months ago

27th Ranked Organization at best.

Just won the World Series. Again.

That is some strooong Pixie Dust. And park factors. And Ragg’s Kool-Aid for those pitchers. Texas Rangers. Detroit Tigers. We’ll see who comes next.

You wrote it Dave Cameron, you can sit in it for a while. Matt Cain has your xFIP right here.

Giant Fans have long memories. Most likely way too long, but your contempt for Sabean & his GreyBeards, because they don’t drink at your watering hole, has been beyond the pale for a long time.

I do enjoy your hiring of Sullivan though. I hope you let him weigh in at your table, and try to scramble up a slightly more realistic organizational rating next year. Because… The Giants Won the World Series!

Bubba
Guest
Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

Giants SWEPT the World Series.

Sure, sublime distinction, but worth noting.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

my points exactly

Feeding the Abscess
Guest
Feeding the Abscess
3 years 11 months ago

Makes sense that the Giants have won 2 WS in 3 seasons, now that Bonds isn’t clogging up the basepaths and killing rallies by hitting homers and taking walks instead of moving the runner over.

Bubba
Guest
Bubba
3 years 11 months ago

“killing rallies by hitting homers”

joe
Guest
joe
3 years 11 months ago

i think it was his recliner in the clubhouse that was clogging things up. iirc even Timmy said words to the effect that it was good to be rid of him.

Lockjaw Larry
Guest
Lockjaw Larry
3 years 11 months ago

Those of you thinking that FanGraphs hates on the Giants must have missed this piece from late September:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/these-saber-savvy-san-francisco-giants/

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

@Larry; I can’t speak to other posters, but my point was never that Fangraphs hated the Giants, but that the majority of the baseballing internet is hesitant to give the Giants credit for anything they do. Attributing their success to luck or park factors or the magical powers of Dave Righetti, instead of giving credit where it is due.

Bad Bill
Guest
Bad Bill
3 years 11 months ago

The majority of the baseballing internet is hesitant to give ANY team credit for anything they do. That’s in the nature of the beast: a bias, no matter how slight (and believe me, FanGraphs does have biases), feeds on the fact that it is only 3.3% likely that the team that wins the World Series will be the one that’s the beneficiary of that bias. It’s hard to step back and consciously overcome the bias on a web site, even if you’re paid to do it.

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

@BB; I get that, I really do. It’s just that people are too quick to throw around the word “luck” when it comes to the Giants and their pitching and defense approach. If the Tigers had won this series it would have been because they had a great offense and amazing starting pitching, if the Yankees had got here do you really think you would here the word “lucky” thrown out there as often?

Irrational Optimist
Guest
Irrational Optimist
3 years 11 months ago

A kudos (the candy bar) to the FanGraphs family of folks. Thanks for the coverage all season (and the most simplistically beautiful coverage in the postseason). You guys rock like maraschino cherries.

Sabean Wannabe
Guest
Sabean Wannabe
3 years 11 months ago

One more comment on the “luck” issue that seems to surround the Giants. I read baseball articles/blogs on a regular basis. I don’t recall any recent World Series winner (save the Giants) being described as lucky. And had the Tigers won this Series, the word luck almost certainly would not appear anywhere.

SF 55 for life
Member
SF 55 for life
3 years 11 months ago

East coast doesn’t see our pitchers. They don’t understand how blessed the Giants organization has been with pitching wealth. Its remarkable, unprecedented, and for many hard to believe. I live on the east coast and I have already received texts from friends saying how lucky the Giants are and blah, blah, blah.

They don’t understand how the Giants are getting things done (pitching, defense, consistent/slump proof offense). Hopefully other organizations are in awe as well, confused how a team that only hit 103(?) home runs won a world series. Hopefully they can remain a step ahead and continue to baffle the baseball world. Giant fans though, and intelligent baseball fans, understand this was no fluke.

Brian Sabian
Guest
Brian Sabian
3 years 11 months ago

I think a content analysis of this website, and others, would support this position. I don’t ever recall the word luck thrown around so much.

It might have something to do with the way both the mainstream media (espn) and fangraphs ranks the Giants. According to both the Giants are mediocre, and so they turn to small sample size and luck (which always exist) as explanations, instead of the obvious (that the Giants are built extremely well for the playoffs).

SF 55 for life
Member
SF 55 for life
3 years 11 months ago

I think fluke is a better word than luck. Every team needs to be lucky to win it all. What many people are claiming is that what has occurred over the last few years has all been a fluke. Which is ridiculous of course but whatever, its not going to stop me from celebrating to the fullest.

Sabean Wannabe
Guest
Sabean Wannabe
3 years 11 months ago

I realize CBS Sports is not the be all and all, but within minutes of the World Series ending last night, one of their “experts” (yes, I know the use of the quotation marks is tired and old) had already referred to the Giants 2012 WS Championship as luck and picked against them in 2013. Thats dedication!!!

And yes, I realized he labeled it “Ridiculously Premature Prediction”

Sabean Wannabe
Guest
Sabean Wannabe
3 years 11 months ago
Anthony
Guest
Anthony
3 years 11 months ago

Is it too early to start taking bets on who the next #6 org will be?

rorschach
Member
rorschach
3 years 11 months ago

What happened with the leaderboards? Posey is listed on his player page at 8 WAR, on the boards he is 7.7. Cano went up from 7.8 to 8.2. Trout went up to 10.3, Cabrera to 7.5. Did I miss something?

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