Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Results

A couple weeks ago, we spent some time in these pages attempting to crowdsource the forthcoming contracts of some of this offseason’s key free agents and also Nick Punto. Below are the results of that exercise.

But first, it makes sense, perhaps, to revisit some of last year’s crowdsourced contract values and compare them to the actual contracts received by the same players.

Last year’s effort was of a slightly more ad hoc nature; however, our full-time employee Dave Cameron did publish all of the first-base results together.

Below are those results (Crowdsourced Contract) along with the actual contracts received by each corresponding player. (Note that contract values are of the average-annual variety.)

Player: Paul Konerko
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.4 years, $11.0 million
Actual Contract: 3 years, $12.5 million

Player: Carlos Pena
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.3 years, $8.9 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $10.0 million

Player: Aubrey Huff
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.2 years, $8.8 million
Actual Contract: 2 years, $11.0 million

Player: Lance Berkman
Crowdsourced Contract: 1.7 years, $7.7 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $8.0 million

Player: Lyle Overbay
Crowdsourced Contract: 1.4 years, $4.8 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $5.0 million

In fact, it looks like the Crowds did relatively well in this case. Aubrey Huff got considerably more than (a) our readers expected and (b) he probably should have. If there’s a pattern of any sort, it’s that the estimated annual values are slightly lower than the actual ones. The average projected annual salary among these five players is $8.3 million; the actual comes out to $9.3 million — or roughly 12% higher.

Now here are this year’s results, sorted by position and then average annual value. Note that Ystd and Sstd are the standard-deviation values for Years and Salary, respectively. Note also that positions aren’t “projected” positions, necessarily, but just how the player was classified in our crowdsourcing posts.

Name		Yrs 	Sal	Ystd	Sstd	POS
Ramon Hernandez	2.0	$5.3	0.7	$2.3	C
Jorge Posada	1.1	$4.6	0.4	$2.4	C
Rod Barajas	1.7	$4.2	0.7	$2.2	C
Albert Pujols	7.4	$25.2	1.3	$3.4	1B
Prince Fielder	6.5	$20.9	1.0	$3.3	1B
David Ortiz	2.2	$11.3	0.7	$4.4	1B
Carlos Pena	1.7	$8.3	0.8	$2.6	1B
Derrek Lee	1.2	$5.8	0.5	$2.5	1B
Jim Thome	1.0	$5.0	0.2	$2.6	1B
Kelly Johnson	2.4	$6.6	0.9	$2.9	2B
Aaron Hill	2.1	$5.6	0.8	$2.6	2B
Jamey Carroll	1.6	$4.0	0.7	$1.9	2B
Jerry Hairston	1.5	$3.7	0.7	$1.7	2B
Mark Ellis	1.5	$3.6	0.7	$1.7	2B
Aramis Ramirez	3.2	$12.1	0.8	$3.1	3B
Wilson Betemit	1.7	$4.3	0.7	$1.8	3B
Nick Punto	1.4	$3.1	0.6	$1.8	3B
Jose Reyes	5.8	$17.4	0.9	$2.8	SS
Jimmy Rollins	3.5	$11.9	0.8	$2.3	SS
Rafael Furcal	2.1	$7.6	0.8	$2.2	SS
Clint Barmes	1.8	$4.4	0.7	$1.7	SS
Carlos Beltran	3.1	$12.3	0.8	$3.0	COF
Michael Cuddyer	2.7	$8.2	0.8	$2.3	COF
Josh Willingham	2.4	$8.0	0.8	$2.6	COF
Jason Kubel	2.2	$6.4	0.8	$2.0	COF
David DeJesus	1.9	$5.6	0.9	$2.1	COF
Grady Sizemore	2.4	$10.0	1.1	$4.9	CF
CC Sabathia	5.9	$23.1	1.1	$2.5	SP
C.J. Wilson	5.0	$15.5	0.7	$3.1	SP
Mark Buehrle	2.7	$11.1	0.9	$2.8	SP
Hiroki Kuroda	2.2	$10.6	0.9	$2.7	SP
Edwin Jackson	3.3	$10.4	0.9	$2.5	SP
Javier Vazquez	1.5	$9.0	0.6	$2.6	SP
Jo. Papelbon	3.5	$11.5	0.8	$2.3	RP
Heath Bell	2.8	$9.6	0.9	$2.2	RP
Ryan Madson	2.9	$8.6	0.6	$2.0	RP

Notes:
• It’s very possible that the 12% difference we saw between last year’s first-base crowdsourced contract and the actual contracts remains in effect for this year’s edition. For example, Albert Pujols is likely to receive more than the $25.2 million for which he’s been projected above. Adding 12%, or $3 million, to the top of that average annual salary gives Pujols a more likely $28.2 million annually.
• Grady Sizemore’s numbers are only from those who thought the Indians wouldn’t pick up his option.
• Javier Vazquez’s numbers are only from those respondents who believe Vazquez won’t retire.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
mettle
Guest
mettle
4 years 6 months ago

Sorry, but 2.3 years, $8.9 million is quite different from 1 year, $10.0 million even though the dollar amount is close. Same holds for Berkman – so really wisdom of the crowds got 2/5 right….

Barkey Walker
Guest
Barkey Walker
4 years 6 months ago

He may have been offered 2 years and asked for 1.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
4 years 6 months ago

I disagree Mettle. If he was offered 1/10, how much do you think a 2nd year would have been? 8MM$ maybe? So, that’s 2/18.

I don’t see how you can call that “quite” different, if I can make a reasonable case that it’s “quite” similar.

Rob
Guest
Rob
4 years 6 months ago

I think mettle was assuming that the money was a total figure, and not a per year figure (which is what I was assuming as well until I looked underneath and saw the salary figures for some of the bigger names)

Bryce
Member
Bryce
4 years 6 months ago

Can we get medians instead of means?

TimmyT
Guest
TimmyT
4 years 6 months ago

looks like someone has a median fetish…

Marver
Guest
Marver
4 years 6 months ago

I think the underestimating may be an artifact of how people answered the question. I have a feeling that some of us may amalgamate the allotted contract — by definition, the 100% percentile offer on the market — with what we believe the player should receive. Even if that is subconscious, I would always expect this exercise to produce underestimated values.

Marver
Guest
Marver
4 years 6 months ago

Continuing that point…it’d be interesting to see how the percentile in our estimates which corresponds (in a normal distribution sense) to the 100th percentile in a sample of size 30 compares to the actual contracts given out.

In other words, we’d be simulating the result of taking a random sample of 30 of our estimates, taking the top one, running this simulation a whole bunch, and seeing how close this comes to htiting the actual contract given out.

That’s probably the best way to see precisely how close we really are.

filihok
Guest
4 years 6 months ago

3 years and $10 million for Sizemore?

The Indians made a big mistake in not picking up his option

DavidCEisen
Guest
DavidCEisen
4 years 6 months ago

Thome just signed a 1 year 1.25 million dollar contract with the Phils.

Eric
Guest
Eric
4 years 6 months ago

yeah, so much for these being low.

Joe
Guest
Joe
4 years 6 months ago

Where’s Coco Crisp?

Ari Collins
Guest
Ari Collins
4 years 6 months ago

If you assume Sabathia’s 6th-year option vests (which is a FAIRLY safe assumption, considering how specific the injury clause is), then we pretty much nailed it.

5.9/23.1 gives you $136MM.

Rounding off to 6/23 gets you $138MM.

Actual contract (if option vests): $142MM.

Ari Collins
Guest
Ari Collins
4 years 6 months ago

Looks to me like the big FAs are going to be a little higher than this, and the role-player types a bit lower.

GiantHusker
Guest
GiantHusker
4 years 6 months ago

The very limited sample from last year’s crowd-source and actual figures doesn’t prove much of anything, except that these crowd-source estimates are at least in the ballpark.
Having some kind of reasonable estimates is very helpful to me.
Thank you FanGraphs and crowd.

Todd
Guest
Todd
4 years 6 months ago

I think you meant to say “and also Nick Punto, WORLD SERIES CHAMPION”.

James Lewis
Guest
James Lewis
4 years 6 months ago

Looks like we pretty much nailed the Barajas contract!

filihok
Member
4 years 6 months ago

And the Carroll and Papelbon contracts as well

P
Guest
P
4 years 5 months ago

And the Reyes contract

nbackas
Member
nbackas
4 years 5 months ago

NAILED the CJ WIlson contract… Exact terms

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