Contract Crowdsourcing 2012-13: Results
Over the last couple-few weeks, we’ve asked readers to estimate the years and average annual dollar amounts likely to be received by certain notable free agents. Below are the results of that exercise.
After each player’s respective name and position are rounded values for years and total projected contract value — represented as Yrs and Tot $, respectively. After that, are four related numbers: the decimal versions both of years and average-annual value (written as Yrs and AAV) and the standard deviations of both data sets, too (listed as Ystd and Astd, respectively).
Below the table are answers to some other questions that appeared on the crowdsourcing forms — mostly concerning options (whether they would be exercised or declined for certain players) but also other matters, as well. Unfortunately, owing to the terrific brevity of the recent World Series, we were unable to finish the entire crowdsourcing project before teams began making decisions on said options. While of no predictive benefit, then, those results allow us to make sweeping judgments about the intelligence of the collective FanGraphs readership!
Note: the author has included all crowdsourced data regarding Dan Haren, despite the fact that he (Haren, not the author) could very well be traded this exact minute.
| Player | Pos | Yrs | Tot $ | ———- | Yrs | AAV | Ystd | Astd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | SP | 6 | 114 | | | 5.7 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Josh Hamilton | CF | 5 | 100 | | | 4.8 | 20.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| Michael Bourn | CF | 5 | 70 | | | 4.7 | 14.3 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| Nick Swisher | COF | 4 | 56 | | | 4.4 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| B.J. Upton | CF | 4 | 52 | | | 4.5 | 12.6 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Anibal Sanchez | SP | 4 | 52 | | | 4.0 | 13.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 |
| Kyle Lohse | SP | 4 | 52 | | | 3.5 | 12.7 | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| Mike Napoli | C | 3 | 36 | | | 3.5 | 12.4 | 1.1 | 6.4 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | 3 | 36 | | | 3.0 | 11.6 | 0.9 | 5.9 |
| Dan Haren | SP | 3 | 36 | | | 3.0 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| Edwin Jackson | SP | 3 | 36 | | | 3.1 | 12.5 | 0.9 | 4.7 |
| Ryan Dempster | SP | 3 | 36 | | | 2.8 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Angel Pagan | CF | 3 | 30 | | | 3.2 | 10.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Shane Victorino | CF | 3 | 30 | | | 2.7 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 |
| Cody Ross | COF | 3 | 30 | | | 2.6 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 5.8 |
| Rafael Soriano | RHRP | 3 | 30 | | | 2.7 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
| David Ortiz | DH | 2 | 26 | | | 2.1 | 13.0 | 0.9 | 4.8 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | SP | 2 | 24 | | | 1.7 | 12.2 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Torii Hunter | COF | 2 | 20 | | | 2.2 | 10.3 | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| Brandon McCarthy | SP | 2 | 20 | | | 2.4 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Shaun Marcum | SP | 2 | 20 | | | 2.3 | 9.6 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | C | 2 | 18 | | | 2.1 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 3B | 2 | 18 | | | 2.2 | 9.2 | 0.9 | 4.5 |
| Russell Martin | C | 2 | 16 | | | 2.4 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| Marco Scutaro | SS | 2 | 16 | | | 2.3 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| Stephen Drew | SS | 2 | 16 | | | 2.4 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 4.1 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | COF | 2 | 16 | | | 1.5 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 |
| Melky Cabrera | COF | 2 | 16 | | | 1.7 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Delmon Young | DH | 2 | 16 | | | 2.4 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Joe Saunders | SP | 2 | 16 | | | 2.1 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Mike Adams | RHRP | 2 | 14 | | | 2.3 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| Francisco Liriano | SP | 2 | 14 | | | 1.6 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| Joe Blanton | SP | 2 | 14 | | | 2.1 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
| Kelly Johnson | 2B | 2 | 12 | | | 2.0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| Koji Uehara | RHRP | 2 | 12 | | | 1.9 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Carlos Villanueva | SP | 2 | 12 | | | 2.0 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | SP | 2 | 12 | | | 1.8 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Scott Baker | SP | 2 | 12 | | | 1.8 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| David Ross | C | 2 | 10 | | | 1.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 2B | 2 | 10 | | | 2.0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| Maicer Izturis | 2B | 2 | 10 | | | 2.1 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Jonny Gomes | COF | 2 | 10 | | | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Franc. Rodriguez | RHRP | 2 | 10 | | | 1.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | LHRP | 2 | 10 | | | 2.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Lance Berkman | 1B | 1 | 8 | | | 1.3 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| Carlos Lee | 1B | 1 | 6 | | | 1.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 3.4 |
| Carlos Pena | 1B | 1 | 6 | | | 1.3 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 3.9 |
| Raul Ibanez | DH | 1 | 6 | | | 1.3 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Roy Oswalt | SP | 1 | 6 | | | 1.1 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Eric Chavez | 3B | 1 | 5 | | | 1.4 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 4.1 |
| Travis Hafner | DH | 1 | 5 | | | 1.2 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Casey Kotchman | 1B | 1 | 4 | | | 1.3 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Placido Polanco | 3B | 1 | 4 | | | 1.4 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| Alex Gonzalez | SS | 1 | 4 | | | 1.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Luke Scott | DH | 1 | 4 | | | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| Michael Gonzalez | LHRP | 1 | 4 | | | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | SP | 1 | 4 | | | 1.2 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Kelly Shoppach | C | 1 | 3 | | | 1.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 1 | 3 | | | 1.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
Below are the results from other questions that appeared on the various crowdsourcing forms. In those cases where the answer to the question has been revealed (as in the case of options, whether they’ve been exercised or declined), the correct outcome is marked with a triple (i.e. the most extreme variety of) asterisk (***).
“I don’t trust Adam LaRoche, his name is too French.” – You
50.0% – True
50.0% – False
Does Freddy Sanchez Exist?
50.7% – Yes, he’s a real baseball player.
49.3% – No, you just made up this person’s name, or something.
Placido Polanco has a $5.5 million mutual option (with $1 million buyout) on his contract for 2013. What will happen?
58.8% – Polanco will exercise it, but the Phillies won’t.***
20.0% – Both parties will exercise it.
12.2% – The Phillies will exercise it, but Polanco won’t.
09.0% – Neither party will exercise it.
The White Sox hold a $13 million option (with $1 million buyout) on Kevin Youkilis’s contract for 2013. What will happen?
67.8% – They won’t exercise it.***
32.2% – They will exercise it.
Stephen Drew has a $10 million mutual option (with a $1.35 million buyout) on his contract for 2013. What will happen?
56.5% – Drew will exercise it, but the Athletics won’t.***
18.6% – Both parties will exercise it.
13.9% – The Athletics will exercise it, but Drew won’t.
11.0% – Neither party will exercise it.
Which will be Ichiro’s last season in the Majors?
46.9% – 2014
19.1% – 2013
13.4% – 2015
12.3% – Never
08.3% – 2012
Cleveland holds a $13 million option on Travis Hafner for 2013. Will they exercise it?
83.3% – No***
12.9% – Get out of here with your “questions,” question man.
03.8% – Yes
Tampa Bay holds a $6 million option on Luke Scott for 2013 (with a $1 million buyout). Will they exercise it?
68.0% – No***
32.0% – Yes
Will Delmon Young make more appearances in 2013 as an outfielder or designated hitter?
55.2% – Designated Hitter
44.8% – Outfielder
The Tigers hold a $3.5 million option (with a $500K buyout) on Octavio Dotel’s contract. Will they exercise it?
86.2% – Yes***
13.8% – No
Rafael Soriano has a $14 million option on his contract with the Yankees. Will he exercise it?
56.8% – No***
43.2% – Yes
What’s the highest (i.e. worst) xFIP- Koji Uehara has posted as a reliever in major-league baseball?
58.5% – 77
24.5% – 64***
08.9% – 58
08.1% – 91
Toronto holds a $3 million option on Darren Oliver’s contract (with a $500K buyout). Will they exercise it?
84.0% – Yes***
16.0% – No
True or false: long-time major-league left-hander Darren Oliver is older than your father.
94.4% – False
05.6% – True
Sometimes, in a movie, one character tells another character, “You’ll never work in this town again!” Will Daisuke Matsuzaka ever work in this town again — if, by “town,” one means “the United States of America”?
42.3% – Yes, he’ll work in this “town” again.
29.9% – I’ve seen some long-winded questions in my day, but this — this! — this takes the cake. (P.S. Give me back my cake.)
27.8% – No, he won’t do that.
The Angels hold a $15.5 million option on Dan Haren for 2013 (with a $3.5 million buyout). Will they exercise it?
67.3% – No
32.7% – Yes
The White Sox hold a $9.5 million option on Gavin Floyd’s contract. Will they exercise it?
79.1% – Yes***
20.9% – No
The Braves hold a $6.5 million option (with a $500K buyout) on Paul Maholm’s contract for 2013. Will they exercise it?
82.0% – Yes***
18.0% – No
The Twins holds a $9.25 million option on Scott Baker’s contract for 2013. Will they exercise it?
83.1% – No***
16.9% – Yes
It was reported at the time that part of the Angels’ motivation in trading for Zack Greinke at the deadline was also to negotiate a long-term deal with him. Will they, in fact, re-sign him?
53.6% – Yes
46.4% – No
The White Sox re-signed Jake Peavy for two years and $29 million. How does that compare to what you expected?
37.9% – About what I expected.
33.3% – More than I expected.
28.7% – Less than I expected.
My, aren’t we a conservative lot? For these to be wrong, you only need one idiot GM per player and God knows there are some idiots out there. I suspect there is at least one comedy offer likely to wing its way to Greinke.
I actually think as a general rule the top 20 names or so are going to go for an average of 20% higher than what we’ve crowdsourced.
Yeah, that was my first thought too. Overall it just looks way low.
I don’t know that I’d say that they look low as much as I’d say they look relatively rational. Put this exact same poll up on ESPN and you’d get quite different results. The question then becomes, which GM’s are rational…?
Thanks Carson for doing this. In the past hasn’t the crowd sourcing projections been very conservative. I mean looking at this list the highest projected WAR would be Hamilton with a ~4 Win season if you assume a $5M per win ratio.
I’m calling it now: Roy Oswalt will be the best value of all these guys next year, and it won’t be close.
I’m calling it now, no he won’t.
Psh, no fun calling something that’s likely to happen! Haha no I mean you’re probably right, but I think there’s a reasonable possibility that Oswalt ends up pitching 200+ innings with a 3.50 ERA or so. That would be a pretty damn good value for one year, 6 million.
I feel like there are players missing, such as Ryan Madson. He will get less than Freddy Sanchez?
Re Stephen Drew. Actually Boras informed the team that Drew would decline the option, then the team announced it first.
We should crowdsource “Total WAR over the length of the contract” too. This would be much additional fun, since then we can all predict what a bad deal most contracts will be.
I somehow missed out on voting this year, but my goodness do these numbers ever look conservative. $114M is the largest contract that Fangraphs handed out? I wouldn’t be surprised if three quarters of these ended up below their market value by at least 20%.
And if you don’t round years and dollars, that contract goes down to 106.02 million total, which is what Jose Reyes got last year. Additionally, in the past 6 years, the low-point for highest FA contract was Matt Holliday getting $120 million.
With all the new media money flooding into the game the price to pay is going up. These numbers are 20-25 percent too low. Next seasons WAR will be around $6MM. If the M’s could get Hamilton for 5/$100MM I’d say do it and I hate albatross contracts.
I knew I was voting too low while I was voting but for some reason choosing a really high number just didn’t feel right. It’s like I had to vote for what I thought the player was worth, even though that’s not the question, and voting higher felt wrong.
carson,
would be cool to see projected WAR per year for these guys in a column of your table. maybe even $/WAR using that projection? just a suggestion.
Where do you get projected WAR for 2013 this early?
Would be nice to know the number of estimates per contract.
The first six in particular look like really poor predictions. Each of those players will likely get significantly more than the prediction. By contrast, I don’t see any where the player is likely to get significantly less, though in the case of Melky Cabrera, Dan Haren, and maybe one or two others, there is a strong likelihood of a one-year deal that gives them less money overall than what is predicted.
I think wiht the nature of how people do these types of polls and how free agency works, adding .5 SD for both years and dollars would give a more accurate prediction for the top 10 or so highest contracts. I’d still take the over on 5 of the top 10.
If the crowdsourcing is correct, shouldn’t (on average) 5 of the top ten estimates be over and 5 of the top ten under? Sounds like you agree with what they wrote.
No, I’m saying if you added .5 SD to each, I’d still take the over. As they currently are, I’d bet at least 8 of the top 10 get more, with a few (Swisher, Upton, Grienke) getting way more.
I agree with others that these numbers look low.
I want to go on the record as saying that Michael Bourn will prove to be the worst contract of the lot. He’ll be untradable by the 4th year of the deal.