Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Brian McCann

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Brian McCann.

Some relevant information regarding McCann:

  • Has averaged 472 PA and 2.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.8 WAR per 480 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.7 WAR in 407 PA in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $12M in 2013, as part of extension signed in 2007.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting catcher.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by McCann this offseason.



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Bryrob58
Guest
2 years 8 months ago

I’m thinking Victor Martinez serves as the baseline here, and added value because he can actually catch for a few more years. I said he will get 5 years at 14 per, but that sounds low. In the fake world, I said 4/48. I could see someone giving him 80 over 5, too.

Izzy
Guest
Izzy
2 years 7 months ago

Almost right on. Yankees have given him 85 million over 5 years (with a vesting option for the sixth year).

Brendan
Guest
Brendan
2 years 8 months ago

I said 4/64. Maybe he gets a 5th year.

Steve
Guest
Steve
2 years 8 months ago

whatever contract he signs, he will sign it the right way.

Bonertron5000
Guest
Bonertron5000
2 years 8 months ago

Does he earn more or less based on his status as Unofficial Arbiter of the Unwritten Rules?

CJ
Guest
CJ
2 years 8 months ago

If Hunter pence got 5/90 I think an AL team will probably give Brian a similar amount. There aren’t many catchers that have provided his amount of offense over the course of the last few years. Being in the AL will also give him more time to DH and rest his legs.

a5ehren
Guest
a5ehren
2 years 8 months ago

I said 5/$75 in the real world (aka the AL), 4/$64 if I were a GM (in the NL).

Jaack
Guest
Jaack
2 years 8 months ago

So, wait… the NL doesn’t actually exist? Damn… I’ve wasted 500 hours of watching a blank TV screen this year?

I guess I’m still better of than Astros fans.

a5ehren
Guest
a5ehren
2 years 8 months ago

That’s not what I’m saying. Just saying that an AL team will be much more willing to go 5 years, but I wanted to throw out a number for the NL since that’s the league that my team (Braves, incidentally) is in.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
2 years 8 months ago

A5 – I noticed you would offer a shorter contract but higher AAV than you’re expecting him to get in the real world. Building on that point, I wonder why GM’s don’t offer a range of contract options, with length of contract moving inversely to AAV. (Or maybe it happens occasionally and you really don’t hear about it.) But for a guy like McCann, when I would be somewhat reluctant to go out beyond maybe 2-3 years, I still might offer a 4th and 5th year but at a lower AAV and let him take his pick.

2-year deal, $14M per year. $28M total, $14M AAV.
Third year added at $12M. $40M total, $13.3M AAV.
Fourth year added at $10M. $50M total, $12.5M AAV.
Fifth year added at $7M. $57M total, $11.4M AAV.

Offer all four options and let McCann and his agent decide on the trade-off between years and AAV.

Aaron Trammell
Guest
Aaron Trammell
2 years 8 months ago

You’re off your gourd if you think he’s signing for less than 12 mil AAV. 4+ years and at least 16 mil per year.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
2 years 8 months ago

Don’t get caught up in the numbers, obviously. It’s the idea to explore, not “you only think he’s getting $42.25 mil when he’s clearly getting at least $42.75 mil derp derp.”

a5ehren
Guest
a5ehren
2 years 8 months ago

That’s pretty much what I was going for, yeah.

An NL GM should be willing to offer an higher AAV since they aren’t taking a hit in the 5th year when the difference between his salary and production would theoretically be the largest.

pedro
Guest
pedro
2 years 8 months ago

There’re just too many teams looking for a catcher who can hit.
My guess is 5/90M. Of course it’s overpay.

LaLoosh
Guest
LaLoosh
2 years 8 months ago

will come down to the Bronx or Beantown.

Roger
Guest
Roger
2 years 8 months ago

I think he’ll get 5 years and at least 13M per, but if I’m the GM I’d go 2 years, 12M per. I’m worried about his durability and inconsistency the past few seasons. Decline is setting in. He’ll get more from an AL team that will let him DH for 30-40 games, but by DH standards his bat will be league average for most of the contract.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
2 years 8 months ago

The eye issues he’s had actually give me a bit of a sense of optimism as I don’t think they are likely still a concern. I pegged him as a 3.5 WAR true talent player next year, and think around 5/70 is both what he’ll get and a fair price.

Brian McCann
Guest
Brian McCann
2 years 8 months ago

If I don’t see some appropriate estimates I’ll straight BEAT YOUR ASS >:o

MBD
Guest
MBD
2 years 8 months ago

I’m a Braves fan (since the days of Bruce Benedict), and I wouldn’t offer more than 3 years to a catcher who has begun his decline, even in the AL. Someone will give him 4, and maybe in this new world of TV contracts, he’ll even get 5, but i worry that he won’t be worth his salary even in the first year. He’s provided an average of $13M of value over the last three years, and he’ll probably get $15M per. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
2 years 8 months ago

Use my brain *AND* my mind? On a Monday?! Curse you Cistulli, you handsome devil…

LONNIE
Guest
LONNIE
2 years 8 months ago

I also went with 4/64mil if I was the GM. Maybe throw in an option year if reached.

Bryan
Guest
Bryan
2 years 8 months ago

I think the Victor comparison is spot on. I don’t think he’s as good of an all around hitter as Vic was when he signed with Detroit but the similarities are all there. He should mosey over to the AL where he could at the least DH 2 or 3 times a week, if not only DH or play 1st. In the AL I think he’s worth alot more than if he stays in the NL. But a 4-5 year contract somewhere around 15 million if he comes to the AL and a 3 year deal with some vesting options if he stays in the NL. Somewhere around 15 million per season

filihok
Guest
2 years 8 months ago

He’ll get 5/12
I’d pay 4/12

GoodasGoldy
Guest
GoodasGoldy
2 years 8 months ago

If I’m the Rangers, I’d beat everyone to him with 5 yrs + renewable 6th yr (plate appearance) option and 15mil/yr. McCann would milk that Ranger rotation for everything it’s worth like he has done for the Braves since he’s been there. In Texas you’re looking at a 30+HR catcher with solid OBPs and significant plus value behind the plate not to mention a worthy periodic DH.

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