Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Curtis Granderson

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Curtis Granderson.

Some relevant information regarding Granderson:

  • Has averaged 540 PA and 3.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.9 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.4 WAR in 245 PA in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-33 season.
  • Made $13.0M in 2013, as part of extension signed in 2008.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Granderson this offseason.

Other Players: Robinson Cano / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe.

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20 Responses to “Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Curtis Granderson”

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  1. Krog says:

    I can see a team like the Royals or Mariners signing him due to his name value alone, driving up his eventual contract.

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  2. LaLoosh says:

    Has any player coming off of a season missing over 100 games ever walked back into a multi 8 figure per yr FA contract?

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  3. LaLoosh says:

    2/24M tops. and buyer beware with more and more teams shifting on him.

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  4. Andy says:

    2 years removed from an MVP season. You guys are kidding youselves with this 2/24 nonsense. Teams will get roughly 25 mil per year from new TV money next year. He’d look really good batting 3rd playing right for the Royals next year. He won’t go to KC unless they offer at least 4 years. 4 / 50 mil or 5 years 55 mil is my bet. His ceiling is MVP, his floor is average major leaguer. Some team is going to get a steal.

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    • Spike says:

      it’s not 2011 anymore. he played 160 games in 2012 and hit .232 and was a 2.3 win player. this yr in 61 games he hit .229. Teams are shifting the crap out of him.

      There is simply no justification for Granderson getting anywhere near what some are saying here. it boggles the mind, frankly. He’ll be lucky to get 3/36 and that’s if he doesn’t take a Yankee QO if offered.

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      • Hittfamily says:

        Players are given contracts based on what-ifs every year. BJ Upton is a great example of that. I use the “Would the Rays sign this player to that contact” saying to determine whether a fangrapher’s offer is accurate. The Rays traded for DeJesus so they could pay him 6.5 next year. They signed Luke Scott to an incentive laden 1 year 5 mil contact with a team option of 6 mil with a 1 mil buyout. They re signed Pena in 2012 to a 7.25 mil contract. Roberto Hernandez signed for 1 / 3.2 mil.

        Dejesus $6.5
        Scott: $6
        Pena: $7.25
        Hernandez: $3.2

        So after seeing what the poorest, but smartest team in baseball payed their most recent big free agent signings, I ask myself, would the Rays sign X player to that deal. If the answer is yes, then you guys are way off on what a no-poor, non-smart GM will sign a player for.

        Would the Rays sign Granderson to a 2 / 24 mil contract? Yep. That means you guys are way off.

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  5. GilaMonster says:

    I feel like he’ll get something between the Ethier deal, Werth deal, and Pence Deal. 5 years/$100 seems about right.

    Yes he missed 100 games, but they weren’t naggging injuries. He broke bones getting HBP. But he is big bat and big bats come with a premium price tag. If he wasn’t injured, he’d get a Werth deal.

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  6. GilaMonster says:

    Werth was around 33 and got a bigger deal. Ethier was a tad younger and got a dumb deal. Power is overvalued on the market and teams will pay way too much for 30/40 HR power.

    A comparison for Grandy? Josh Hamilton. Granderson walks more, but strikes out more. Both had 40 HR power in hitters park. SImilar age. But Granderson is much more well respected as a club house guy compared to Josh Hamilton who was known for “causing trouble”

    I wouldn’t give Granderson a $100m + contract. But the market will. I’d use the Jason Bay contract as a model, but that was 4 years ago before the ginat TV contracts.

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    • Spike says:

      how is that Josh Hamilton deal working out?

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      • GilaMonster says:

        How a deal works out for a team doesn’t matter for a player.
        The market paid __ therefore compared to the market I expect ___. I don’t think the Santana deal pushed the pitching market into the dirt.

        Do I think Grandyman should expect a Hamilton deal? No, the injury killed than. Pence pushed the market up. Choo will do the same. Teams see Grandy as a 30+ HR guy for the next few years, That has a ton of value.

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        • Spike says:

          it’s about age. Again, I said that I don’t know if a player ever missed 100 games and walked into an 8 figure multi yr deal. Forget that. Tell me the last player at 33 to get even a 40M deal.

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    • Spike says:

      if Granderson came back blazing hot in the 60 games he played then there would at least be some case to make that he could be expected to be very productive, but he was just mediocre and added to his mediocre 2012, I don’t see teams likely to invest heavily in him off his 2011 season and *especially* if draft pick compensation is attached.

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  7. filihok says:

    He’ll get 4/$18
    I’d offer 3/$16

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    • Andy says:

      So you think he ends up on the Rays? You do realize Luke Scott signed a 6.5 mil deal last year, right? You think Luke had more value than Granderson?

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      • JayT says:

        I think that he’s saying $18 million per year for four years. At least I hope that’s what he’s saying, because Granderson at $4.5 million per year is ridiculous.

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  8. LONNIE says:

    I could see a 4 for 58 million deal for him. He won’t hit as many HR outside of Yankee Stadium.

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  9. Andy says:

    He just signed a 4 year 60 mil contract. I got BLASTED by you guys for suggesting 4 / 50. Like I said before, your offers were nonsense!

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