Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Nelson Cruz

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Nelson Cruz.

Some relevant information regarding Cruz:

  • Has averaged 537 PA and 1.3 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.5 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.5 WAR in 456 PA in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-33 season.
  • Made $10.5M in 2013, as part of extension signed before 2012 season.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Cruz this offseason.

Other Players: Carlos Beltran / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.

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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

15 Responses to “Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Nelson Cruz”

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  1. Andy says:

    This one is easy. 4 years, 44 million, Orioles.

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  2. LaLoosh says:

    gonna be 34 this coming season; averaged less than 1.5 wins the prev 3 seasons. Coming off of PED suspension. Career OPS away from Arlington is .734. All those things don’t bode well for Cruz to get a 4 yr $44M deal imo. I said 2/18M.

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    • MustBunique says:

      I was close in annual value, but said 1 at 8. I think in reality the winner will include incentives and some sort of an option year, whether that is mutual or just club.

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    • Andy says:

      He made 10.5 mil this year. My feeling was that home run wise, he was having a great year. Teams pay a premium for homers, so he wasn’t going to make LESS than this year, once he hit the open market. After that, pick a length. I figured every team in the league could do a 3 / 33 contract, so whoever offered an additional year gets him.

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  3. Matty Brown says:

    surprised he has only averaged 1.5 WAR per 600 over the last 3 years.

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  4. CraigM says:

    Overrated, especially both offensively and defensively. The Rangers are looking for power so they will probably buckle under and give him 4 years and $44M, which is two years too much and $24M too much!

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  5. LONNIE says:

    I predicted 2/20mil ,since Melky got 2/16 last year. But thats more than I would offer him. 1 year at 8.5 maybe 2 for 15 million total.

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  6. Tiss says:

    I would give him nothing more than 1 yr/3 million. Maybe with incentives I would go up to 5 million for 1 year. Which means, of course, I wouldn’t get him.

    Why would you sign him when DeJesus is more valuable and cheaper?

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    • Andy says:

      Because DeJesus is not a free agent. Luke Scott is though. He signed a 1 year, 6.5 mil contract with a 5 mil team option. Even after last year’s awful season, it was picked up. Wanna rethink your number after seeing what the best GM in baseball payed an injury prone, coming off a bad year, all bat no glove, hated by all, 1 skill DH. You guys have to be kidding with this 1 year, 3 mil and 2 year, 16 mil nonsense.

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      • Tiss says:

        I want to rethink nothing. If it takes more than 5 mil a year or I have to commit to more than 2 years, I pass on Cruz.

        I’ll pass on giving $11 mil a year on a 4 year contract to a 33 year old OF with declining hitting and fielding skills who may have had his past performance influenced by PEDs. I do not think that is an extreme position.

        You’re right for calling me out on my DeJesus mistake. On the issue of Joyce, he’s averaged 1.7 WAR over the last two years. 6.5 million is a bargain. 5 million is terrific. Cruz is a 1.5 WAR player, and he should get 4 years/44 million? No thanks.

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        • Andy says:

          I was a little harsh. I shouldn’t have been. Sorry. This exercise is about what we, individuals, would give him. However, I think even the lowly Astros would triple your offer, but nevertheless, I overreacted. I was basing my 4 /44 deal on what he would get, not what I would give, and you were basing it on what you would give, not what he would get.

          Jon Daniels already said he will offer Cruz a qualifying offer, so Cruz already, before free agency has officially begun, been given a 1 year, 14.1 million dollar offer. I made my 4 /44 prediction before Daniels extended that offer. I think 4 /44 looks about right now, considering.

          Joyce was worth .4 WAR over the second half. He was a bench player by September, and when he played, he usually hit 8th or 9th. Kelly Johnson, Luke Scott, and Matt Joyce alternated DH duties in the latter months of the season, and that is not a group you want to be a part of. The Rays lost all confidence in him. He made 2.5 mil this year in his first year of arb. He will make 3-4 mil next year. The Rays will not pay both Joyce and Dejesus 10 mil combined (about 15% of payroll) to both be LH left fielders. Dejesus got the bulk of the playing time, so he will likely be brought back. Joyce, in my opinion, will be traded. He could serve as their LH DH though.

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  7. Atreyu Jones says:

    He will have a great contract in his hands, getting the pen ready, and then the pages will glance past his outreached fingers over his head and gone forever.

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  8. Poopypants says:

    An AL team that understands that they are signing him for a DH position would do good giving a 3/36(if he’d accept) and putting a good defender in the OF.

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  9. Pdowdy83 says:

    I would have to say he lands a 2 year deal in the $8m-10m per year range.

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  10. Andy says:

    Now that Daniels has said he is going to give him a qualifying offer, we can rule out 1 and 2 year deals. Teams won’t give up their 1st round draft pick for a 1 or 2 year deal, and perhaps even a 3 year deal.

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