Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Shin-Soo Choo

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Shin-Soo Choo.

Some relevant information regarding Choo:

  • Has averaged 585 PA and 3.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.0 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 5.2 WAR in 712 PA in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $7.375M in 2013 on one-year deal to avoid arbitration.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Choo this offseason.

Other Players: Carlos Beltran / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.



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Johnny
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Johnny
2 years 10 months ago

I think Choo gets something in the neighborhood of 6 years, 105 million. Especially after the Pence deal.

LaLoosh
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LaLoosh
2 years 10 months ago

not sure why people think he ought to get more than Pence.

Ryan
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Ryan
2 years 10 months ago

Choo is a better overall player than Pence.

JayT
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JayT
2 years 10 months ago

I agree that Choo’s a better player, but I also think that Pence would not have received that deal on the open market, especially if he had the loss of a draft pick attached to him.
I think that Choo ends up at $16-$17 million per year for five years.

AJ
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AJ
2 years 10 months ago

Choo is also a year older than Pence

LaLoosh
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LaLoosh
2 years 10 months ago

well, normally being on the open market causes the player to get more, not less. and usually the draft pick comp doesn’t affect the elite FAs by a lot. But it’s a fair point to speculate that it could have some effect. I agree that estimates for Choo are getting a little ridiculous. Teams that are willing to “hand out a blank check” so to speak may be down to just the Tigers and Dodgers and the Dodgers seem to have the OF pretty well overstocked. I suppose the Tigers are a possibility. Rangers look possibly as do the Yankees and maybe Phils. Mets an outside shot imo.

I say he ends up with a deal similar to Pence’s when all is said and done.

Johnny
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Johnny
2 years 10 months ago

Choo will age much better than Pence. His walk rate is INSANE and he has a career OBP over .370 ( and coming off of a year with OBP over .400). Guys who have a walk rate/OBP in the neighborhood of Choo usually age fairly well.

Ctownboy
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Ctownboy
2 years 10 months ago

As many times as Choo was hit by a pitch this past season if that keeps happening he isn’t going to keep being lucky and not getting injured. All it is going to take is one pitch off of the hand or wrist and Choo is on the DL for four to six weeks and his power is zapped for even longer.

Then that big dollar, long term deal for an outfielder over the age of 30 wont look so good.

bookbook
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bookbook
2 years 10 months ago

At some level the Mariners offseason festival of desperation will put a floor under Choo’s price…

MrKnowNothing
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MrKnowNothing
2 years 10 months ago

Fewer and fewer FA out there for teams to sign. Choo and Pence and the like benefit.

Aaron
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Aaron
2 years 10 months ago

I’d like to see him back in Cleveland. Not likely, though. He is a Scott Boras client, and those players tend to get more than they probably should. He’s going to sign late in the off-season when teams become increasingly desperate for outfielders.

LONNIE
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LONNIE
2 years 10 months ago

I would go up to 5 years for 80million.

Donny
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Donny
2 years 10 months ago

I’ll bet 5 years for 90 mil, but it may go up to 6 years for 110m

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