Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Tim Lincecum

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Tim Lincecum.

Some relevant information regarding Lincecum:

  • Has averaged 200.1 IP and 2.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.8 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.6 WAR in 197.2 IP in 2013.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $22.0M in 2013, as part of extension signed before 2012 season.

Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Lincecum this offseason.

Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Roy Halladay / Jason Hammel / Dan Haren / Roberto Hernandez / Tim Hudson / Phil Hughes / Omar Infante / Ubaldo Jimenez / Josh Johnson / Scott Kazmir / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.

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I see Timmy doing better than J. Johnson.
*If I were a GM I would do 2/3 years at 8 Million. Incentive bonuses for performance and a vesting-extra year at 12 million.

One thing that Selig should be acknowledged for is revenue. Despite bloated contracts and a sinking U.S. economy baseball is a $14 Billion business.

In my opinion these guys should be paid as follows:
Every player receives a base salary based on years of service.
All salaries are incentive laden; should you perform like M. Cabrera (example) you will get paid like M. Cabrera. Should you be unfortunate enough to be injured or have a poor year, you will make your base salary which is still WAY above the average salary for the U.S and WAY WAY above the average salary of other countries.

Those of us who are old enough to remember when A-Rod broke in, remember a hell of a player who is credited with redefining a position. He was paid handsomely and produced for many, many years. In 2013 and the next few years, is A-Rod worth 20+ million a year?

Waiting on my call from Boras


Players won’t go for this. Low revenue teams that maximize WAR/$ won’t go for this. The majority of players will make more money under the current model (except pre-arb players). Superstars would make a helluva lot more. I always thought this exact model would be what I would institute under a socialist baseball utopia. But we don’t have one of those, we have our imperfect, wonderful world.


You are exactly right. No one would go for it.
But, it would allow productive players to get paid what they contribute and unproductive players to get paid an appropriate sum for not contributing.
It would cut out the A-Rod / Mike Hampton contracts that flop.
I assume a league minimum of 490,000 is plenty for a person to live off of.


‘Course than we’d need performance based ticket prices – or all the benefits of business growth would be back in the owners pockets.