Same concept as yesterday, just with Carl Crawford‘s polar opposite – Adam Dunn. Rather than being a speed and defense guy, Dunn is all about the power, swinging for the fences on every pitch. It works for him, as he’s having his normal season – .265/.358/.556, good for a .386 wOBA. His career wOBA? .385. He’s a pretty easy offensive player to project.
Defense has always been his bugaboo, but after agreeing to move to first base full time, he’s been passable with the glove now that he doesn’t have to run around the outfield anymore, but he’s still far from an asset defensively. How much will teams hold his history of butchery against him, or will they assume that playing first base full time has made him a guy that can carry a glove and be a valuable contributor?
Dunn turns 31 this winter, and there are some pretty scary comparable players that have had their careers veer over the cliff after their 30th birthday. Richie Sexson posted a .385 wOBA at age 30, then went .355, .305, .314, out of baseball. Mo Vaughn put up a .421 wOBA at age 30, then went .370, .369, .349, .291, out of baseball. These guys were paid handsomely for a skillset that is very similar to Dunn’s, and teams have become a bit nervous about giving long term deals to guys with old player skills. However, there are guys like Jim Thome that have remained highly productive, so we can’t assume that Dunn is certainly headed for steep decline.
Will Dunn find the market to be more friendly than the last time he was a free agent? He was essentially the same player two years ago when he had to settle for just $20 million over two years. Have teams become bigger fans of his since then, or is Dunn in line for another rude awakening when he asks for a long term contract? Let your voice be heard below, and we’ll talk about the results tomorrow.
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