Contract Crowdsourcing: Derek Jeter

Well, this one should be interesting.

Derek Jeter is widely expected to re-sign with the New York Yankees when the season ends. A lifelong Yankee, it’s nearly impossible to imagine him going anywhere else. He is keenly aware of his legacy, and he has little to gain from ending his career in any other uniform. Given his place in their history, he almost certainly has more value to the Yankees than he does to any other franchise as well. The question, though, will be how much that value actually is.

Jeter is 36 years old and in the midst of the worst season of his career. There’s no shame in that, as he’s already sustained a high level of performance beyond an age where most players are capable of playing at his level. If his struggles in 2010 are indicative of the beginning of the end for Jeter as an elite player, that would be a fairly normal progression, and we’d expect him to settle for a short-term contract that reflected that he was nearing the end of his career.

However, we simply can’t jump to the conclusion that this really is the beginning of the end. A year ago, Jeter had one of the best seasons of his career, and it is rare that a player’s skills decline this quickly. In fact, if we look at his underlying numbers, the decline doesn’t appear to be that dramatic at all.

2010, Career:

BB%: 8.1%, 9.0%
K%: 15.6%, 16.9%
ISO: .109, .140

He’s both walking and striking out a little less than his overall career averages, and while his power is down slightly, it’s not like he was ever a guy who counted on driving the ball to produce value. The real areas where his numbers vary significantly from his established norms are the following two areas:

GB%: 65.8%, 56.9%
BABIP: .297, .356

He’s always been a groundball guy, but this year it’s been extreme. He leads all major league hitters in groundball rate, and it’s not even close – Elvis Andrus is second, five percentage points behind Jeter. And yet, even though ground balls have a higher rate of becoming hits than fly balls, Jeter’s BABIP is the lowest of his career, and by a large margin. Before this year, he’d never posted a mark below .315, and he has more seasons with a BABIP over .350 than under that mark. While BABIP is a high-variance statistic, even for hitters, Jeter has a well-established skill at producing above the league average. That just hasn’t translated onto the field this year.

Odds are pretty good that Jeter’s going to hit better next year than he has this year. He’s probably not done as a good major league player. However, he will be 37 next year, and he’s not going to be good forever. If you give him a long-term deal, you’re paying more for what he’s done than what he’s going to do. But he’s going to be an asset going forward – even with the career low BABIP, he’s been worth +1.7 WAR this year, and it isn’t that easy to find a good shortstop.

There’s a lot of variables at play here, even if it’s extremely likely that he re-signs with New York. So, let’s hear it – what do you think Jeter will get this winter?



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Gio
Guest
Gio
5 years 11 months ago

MLB Trade Rumors also did a poll for Derek Jeter’s next contract. I wonder if the wisdom of the crowds will come to the same conclusion at both sites.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/09/poll-derek-jeters-next-contract.html

Temo
Member
Temo
5 years 11 months ago

“And yet, even though groundballs have a higher rate of becoming hits than fly balls, Jeter’s BABIP is the lowest of his career, and by a large margin.”

Kinda bugs me when people write that. GB rate doesn’t have a huge effect on BABIP, at least in comparison to LD rate.The latter is by far the most dominant determinant of BABIP.

B-R says Jeter’s BABIP on LDs this year is .641 vs. .766 lifetime, which combined with his lower-than-normal LD rate is the bulk of the decrease.

Of course, his GB BABIP is down as well… from .260 career to .226 this year

Edward Mordigan
Guest
Edward Mordigan
5 years 11 months ago

It only goes up to 25 mil?

It will between 25 and 30 mil for 3-4 years. I’m also expecting some sort of post-playing career contract option as well.

yuniform
Guest
yuniform
5 years 11 months ago

$25 million per season? That’ll be an outlier. $25 million over the course of his contract would be more likely, though I’d expet higher

anon
Guest
anon
5 years 11 months ago

I’m pretty sure edward mordigan meant 25-30 mil *total* for 3-4 years, i.e. 6.25-10 mil per season.

The Duder
Guest
The Duder
5 years 11 months ago

Hahahaha 25-30 mil? Throw that data point out.

What didn’t get touched on was the defensive aspect of his game. I’ve heard it tossed around that he could be play some lf in his twilight years. Whether there is any reality to that remains to be seen, yet if his current offensive production doesn’t rebound then its somewhat of a moot point anyway.

W hatdo you pay a 36 year old, below average fielding, 320 wOba shortstop, who is probably the most recognized, classy player in the game and had been the face of your franchise for years? Then change that to 360 woba?

You could make a sound argument for 3@6, or 4@15. It’s first about what you think his offensive true talent is at 37, and how much this year impacts that, obviously, but it’s also about what his off field value is to bottom line of the yankees.

dan l
Guest
dan l
5 years 11 months ago

1 year 13 million dollar deal with multiple team options going forward. The team needs to be protected an if this year performance is indicative of next year then I would rather have Nunez instead. The sooner Jeter retires the better for all concerned.

MikeD
Guest
MikeD
5 years 11 months ago

You are living in a fantasy world if you think Nunez will be Jeter’s replacement.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew
5 years 11 months ago

I can see him getting 40-50 million over 4 years. He’ll have a contract until the age of 40, and 4 years can be an epoch in baseball nowadays.

Alec
Guest
Alec
5 years 11 months ago

4 years 12mm per year. it the yankees they print money. jeter is worth more to the yankees than anyone else.

Steve
Guest
Steve
5 years 11 months ago

That cuts both ways though. The Yankees are more valuable to Jeter than any other team…

Stab in the Dark
Guest
Stab in the Dark
5 years 11 months ago

This is my guess also… but I could just as easily see 2/20 or 4/80. I think paying him until he’s 40 will seem fair to both sides, whether he’ll take a 7 mil a year pay cut is another matter.

Steve
Guest
Steve
5 years 11 months ago

Nothing would surprise me. The Yankees are about to go into contract negotiations with a player who is clearly declining, yet is easily the most popular yankee of the last 30-40 years, and possibly the most popular yankee ever.

In other words, they are basically screwed. They are a lock to overpay, the only question is “how badly”?

I would consider anything shorter than 4 years and less than $20M/year a “win” for the Yankees. $45M/3 seems the most “fair/likely” contract to me, in terms of paying Jeter an amount somewhat commensurate with his declining on-field value, yet recognizing all of the ancillary off-field value that (though harder to quantify) he does bring.

snapper
Guest
snapper
5 years 11 months ago

He’s not more popular than Mattingly at his peak.

As for ever, he pales beside Mantle, DiMaggio and Ruth. They were national icons. Jeter’s a local hero at best.

Chip
Guest
Chip
5 years 11 months ago

He’s much much more popular than Mattingly. He’s won five rings (so far) and has many more memorable moments (the flip, the dive, the jump throw, Mr. November) than Mattingly did or could have had due to the teams he played on.

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

I don’t know if that’s entirely true. I would say Jeter is *as* popular as Mattingly was, even at his peak. It’s hard to figure really. Fans will go bananas for him at Old-Timers Day just like they did for Mattingly when he attended. Seriously, walk into any sports bar in the Bronx at shout “Jeter sucks” and they probably won’t serve you (or at least kindly suggest it’s probably a good idea to leave). Read some of the local comments online that even mildly deride Jeter (NY Post, DN, ESPN NY, etc) and you’ll see legions of fans rip the columnist to pieces. The amount of Jeter worship is staggering–except at places like Fangraphs or BBTF where emotional reactions are not the norm.

I would say Jeter is this generation’s Mattingly, just as Mattingly was the last generation’s Thurman Munson, and so on and so forth.

Remember, too, in light of the PED controversy, Jeter will most certainly be hailed as a national icon as he approaches 3000 hits. He’ll “represent everything that’s good and pure about the sport” just like Griffey did.

Steve
Guest
Steve
5 years 11 months ago

Jeter’s a local hero at best.

Completely and utterly insane.

Jeter is probably the most recognizable face in all of MLB, and has been for a long time.

He is easily one of the 10 most recognizable athletes in the country. I would say the world, but I would be talking out of my ass if I included soccer.

Others have covered the Mattingly angle well. Let’s put it like this: Mattingly may have been the most popular Yankee amongst Yankee fans at the time, but there are simply MORE Yankee fans now.

snapper
Guest
snapper
5 years 11 months ago

Clearly you weren’t in NY in the 80’s and early 90’s.

Jeter has always been a star on a team of stars; Mattingly was the man. Huge star from day one, and then the pathos of his injury decline.

I’ve never heard the Stadium louder than when Mattingly hit a HR against seattle in the ’95 ALDS.

Fans loved Mattingly. Outside of 20-something women, they don’t love Jeter.

JJ for Cy
Guest
JJ for Cy
5 years 11 months ago

I don’t agree with you at all, and I’ve lived in NYC and the immediate areas for 30 years. Mattingly was beloved, for sure, but it was also a different time, where the Yankees weren’t anywhere near as popular. Attendance alone points to that, but also the fact that the Yankees weren’t as good. While Mattingly may be more beloved by the “diehard” Yankee fans, the simple fact is they’re not that team anymore. They’re a global team with fans all over the world, and that’s simply not the way it was during Mattingly’s peak. Jeter’s exposure is multi-national and he is THE star on a team of stars – to me that says more than Mattingly being the captain on a team of scrubs (minus Rickey and Winfield in the 80’s).

As for Jeter being a “local hero”, Jeter has been the top selling baseball jersey for over a decade straight – I’m not saying that means much, but there’s a reason for that. He’s been #1 or #2 in terms of off-field endorsements for over a decade, and he’s even the only baseball player with a Nike shoe line. Kind of tough to say his popularity is primarily with 20-something females.

deadpool
Guest
deadpool
5 years 11 months ago

I think Chippers extension with the Braves is pretty comparable, lock him up with deferred money until he’s 40 and give him a shot at any milestones.

I also think Chippers a good comp for Jeters aging pattern, amazing season out if nowhere at mud-thirties accompanied by a suprising surge in defensive value followed by a near collapse.

Temo
Member
Temo
5 years 11 months ago

Where’s Chipper’s surprising defensive surge? Other than 3 horrific years, he’s been right around average for his career.

Just about every year of Jeter’s career has been a horrific year defensively.

Temo
Member
Temo
5 years 11 months ago

By the way, I don’t mean to suggest that Chipper hasn’t been below average defensively for his career, he’s accumulated -33.4 fielding runs. But that’s nowhere near Jeter’s -115.6 runs.

Zachary
Guest
Zachary
5 years 11 months ago

As a Jeter owner in fantasy since June 1, he’s been:
82/343, 14 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 39 BB, 3 HBP, 58 K, 10/14 SB
.239/.320/.335, .275 babip

I should have just picked up Cliff Pennington from waivers:
71/249, 13 2B, 6 3B, 1 HR, 25 BB, 2 HBP, 49 K, 17/20 SB
.285/.346/.394, .352 babip

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

Everyone’s right about the dilemma between Jeter’s legend value to the Yankees and his actual declining on-field performance, but there’s simply no way he’ll take a paycut, and as soon as the local media catches wind of “pay cut”, the Yankees will be crucified. We’ll see articles about how much more valuable Jeter is than A-Rod or any of the other over-paid players they have, etc. From Posnanski’s recent article:

“This is a team that is paying A.J. Burnett $16.5 million every year through 2013, and as Michael says, “He, indisputably, stinks.” The Yankees cannot viably pay Derek Jeter less or the same amount as they’re paying Burnett. He’s Derek Jeter.”

Right or wrong, that’s going to be a major sticking point. Not Burnett in particular, but “inferior” players making more money. Remember, too, Mike Mussina refused to sign an extension with the Yankees for a penny less than what Carl Pavano was making. The belief by commenter Edward Mordigan that he’ll get more than the maximum $25MM annually listed here is probably fueled by the idea he should get more than A-Rod, or at least equal to.

IMO, he won’t take a pay-cut, and his actual performance doesn’t warrant a raise, so I believe this will simply be an extension of his previous contract–$18.9MM annually, or thereabouts, for three or four years, some which will be deferred.

dan l
Guest
dan l
5 years 11 months ago

Then only offer arbitration. If he wants to play he’ll have to accept.

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

Yeah, that’s a thought. But I would think the Yankees would like to extend him beyond one year.

Arbitration hearings can get a little ugly too. I don’t think they’d want to go through that for one of the most beloved Yankees in a looong time.

snapper
Guest
snapper
5 years 11 months ago

So what if the media crucifies them?

The Yankee offer will still be the highest offer, and he’ll accept. Once he signs, no one will care anymore.

Do you think the media won’t crucify then if they’re paying $20M to a 39 and 40 y.o. Jeter who’s riding the pine?

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

I think to a certain extent both New York franchises are sensitive to media pressure (the Mets moreso). As it is, Brian Cashman always cites makeup and “an ability to play in New York” as important indicators for him when examining players. They gave Sabathia an opt-out clause in case he didn’t acclimate well to New York. Now of course we don’t have to believe that stuff; Cashman may just be playing up to the press and fans. But I think it demonstrates a certain level of sensitivity.

This isn’t *all* media-driven; a lot of this, like commenter Mooks below suggested, may be considered marketing expense for the Yankees’ internal budgeting purposes (great point). Jeter is, obviously, their most marketable player. And in the Yankees’ “galaxy of stars” (or whatever anyone wants to call it), Jeter shines the brightest–regardless of what his actual performance is. Their biggest star can’t (or shouldn’t) be their lowest-paid one.

I just don’t see the Yankees playing hardball with Derek Jeter, of all people.

Jake
Guest
Jake
5 years 11 months ago

Bingo. Some of these comments, you guys are delusional. You’re putting far too much weight on what he’s actually worth and the fact that he’s having a bad season.

mettle
Guest
mettle
5 years 11 months ago

I’m going to go one further.
I’m guessing $22,222,222 for 2 years (11per) with some perpetual mutual option a la Wakefield.
It’s a little more than what someone with Jeter’s numbers seems to be getting and it’s got the 2s, his jersey number, that makes for a nice little point of respect. Seems too perfect to go any other way…

TFINY
Member
TFINY
5 years 11 months ago

$22,222,222 a year is more likely than $11M.

Mooks
Guest
Mooks
5 years 11 months ago

I think the Yankee front office can take the approach that Jeter’s salary is not completely payroll but also a marketing expense. Obviously MLB will not view it as such for luxury tax purposes and the like but I feel like it is a very real possibility that the front office sees this more as a marketing decision.

For example, say he re-signs for what he is making now, about $19M. The front office may view this as $9M in payroll and $10M in marketing. Then when they give their budget of say $215M (real or not) to Cashman it is with the caveat that only $9M of Jeter’s salary counts towards it.

Obviously this is a very simplified example but I think it is a valid possibility. Jeter is probably worth more to the Yankees now for his marketing potential than his on the field production. The Yankees may grossly overpay Jeter for his baseball skills, but in no way are they loosing money on that contract. By taking this sort of approach to his next contract, the Yankees can provide Jeter with the overpriced contract he will ultimately get without letting it impede Cashmen’s ability to pursue top FA’s in the offseason.

noseeum
Guest
noseeum
5 years 11 months ago

I said 3 years $20 million per. If he wants 4, he has to take less per year.

3/$20 is a ridiculous offer which he should accept without hesitation. If he rejects it, I don’t see him getting much support from the media.

TFINY
Member
TFINY
5 years 11 months ago

That’s exactly what I said. It’s a raise, so he can’t decline it and expect the media to fly behind him.

TJ
Guest
TJ
5 years 11 months ago

I’ve got to say he takes a pretty big pay cut. From what I read above I may have severely underestimated what he signs for, but in my opinion 2 years and 20 million (10per) will be what he gets. It also wouldn’t surprise me if about 8-10 million dollars worth of playing time bonuses were placed into the contract. The reason I have him signing so low is that I just can’t see teams getting into a huge bidding war over him. If it did come to that I can easily see the Yankees pulling out all the stops on a contract, however it won’t. Not many teams would want to sign a guy that will be 37 with type A status to a large contract even if he didn’t have a long history with a great franchise. Throw in the fact that Jeter wants to be a Yankee lifer and would likely give them a large discount, teams will be even less willing to make a competitive offer. Were I a GM I wouldn’t want to tie up millions of dollars in a very risky player who will likely not sign with me when I could very easily miss out on much safer investments. I could possibly see the Tigers get into bidding war since they generally don’t care about loosing picks (they may get to keep their 1st rounder anyway) and putting up big bucks, since the Tigers are Jeter’s home team. Jeter may want play his twilight year for his home team, although to my understanding, he was always a Yankee fan. Due to his lifetime love of the Yankees I can see Jeter signing with no team but them, no matter how low of an offer New York gives.

pogotheostrich
Guest
pogotheostrich
5 years 11 months ago

I don’t think Jeter or the Yankees want to drag this out in the press. Jeter will have to take a cut but I don’t think it will be as drastic as some think. It is going to have to be a number that doesn’t cause the Jeter or the organization to lose face. I’m thinking 18-20 million at 3-4 years.

cs3
Guest
cs3
5 years 11 months ago

where can we find the results to this article? (and the other contract crowdsource articles)
maybe im just really dumb, but i keep looking for a link to a results page and i cant find one

JohnnyK
Member
5 years 11 months ago

I mean no offense here, cs3 – I just always wanted to use this link: http://tinyurl.com/29juqea

As dor Jeter’s contract: I say 3 years at 18 per. As much as I want him to defy expectations and take a (significant – say down to 12 per) pay cut, it’s not gonna happen.

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

The results will be posted later, maybe tomorrow or sooner I hope. It’s not one of those surveys where you can check the results right after you vote.

Kevin S.
Member
Kevin S.
5 years 11 months ago

4 years/$60 million – it’s a fair-value contract if we’re exceedingly generous in projecting Jeter’s decline, and it’s goodwill money if he falls off more sharply. The Yankees aren’t going to assume a best-case scenario and then overpay him relative to that projection.

Kyle
Guest
Kyle
5 years 11 months ago

I said 4 years at 18 million a year… regardless of whatever signs of decline there is, the Yankees want him to retire a Yankee. So even 20 million a year would be halfway reasonable. He’s played for the Yankees his entire career, and is going to get well over 3000 hits on his way to the Hall of Fame. No way the Yankees let him leave no matter how overpaid he is.

But I agree with pogo the most… but they’ll give him a 4 year contract for 18-20 million a year. He’ll be 40 at the end of that contract, plays in a hitters’ park, and could always play some outfield or do the Paul Molitor DH thing. So his average to horrible defense when it’s not the playoffs won’t matter to the Yankees. He’d steal more bases, hit better, and probably for more power if he ever switched to DH. The Yankees have had Chuck Knoblauch at DH, cause his fielding went to hell(well his arm actually), so it won’t be the first time they did something different.

BIP
Guest
BIP
5 years 11 months ago

4/$72 was my vote, too.

phoenix
Guest
phoenix
5 years 11 months ago

im thinking 15-20 mil for 3-4 years. they will sign him for much more than his worth because he is derek jeter and thats huge for the yankees. also he will be hitting milestones pretty soon and that sells well. as mooks said, part of his contract will be for marketing. there is no way the yankees allow jeter to drag down the yankees with his salary and jeter himself would not want that. cashman will have 200-220 mil to play with and will probably sign and/or trade for a top of the rotation starter (cant count on burnett as #2), a DH (unless they want to rotate the old guys in there) and an outfielder (maybe) to hedge their bets on gardner not doing as well as this year or granderson not improving. one also has to ask if pettitte is coming back and how that factors into the payroll and the search for a starting pitcher. at the end of the day, jeter is going to be overpayed for his on-field value but his contract will make up for it in marketing as he hits milestones. it won’t affect the yankees ability to go after FA because the yankees are, above all else, about winning.

phoenix
Guest
phoenix
5 years 11 months ago

also i expect a ton of offseason work like after ’08 and a much improved (though not ’09 worthy) 2010. a .300+ BA and a few more steal and better defense (attributed to better conditioning) can be expected. although his defense in his career has been terrible, in recent years he has actually gotten better. now he has no range (he never really did) but his arm is much more accurate for the 17 years he’s been throwing the first base. he now makes very few errors, which i would rather have than a guy with great range but no idea where he’s throwing the ball. he was never known for his defense and so he does not have a huge reputation to live up to there like he does for hitting.

cs3
Guest
cs3
5 years 11 months ago

JohnnyK-
I know where all the old articles are and ive already read each one, but i still cant find results for any of them.
The Carl Crawford article was posted a week ago and i dont see results anywhere, but again, maybe im just really dumb and im not looking in the right place?

JohnnyK
Member
5 years 11 months ago

Well, for me the second Google result with the search I linked to is the Crawford results post:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/contract-crowdsource-results-carl-crawford/

Or just filter by author as Dave posted all of these crowdsourcing posts:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=4

tpain
Guest
tpain
5 years 11 months ago

His decline this year doesn’t seem very steep if you ignore last year (just looking at WAR). Last year seems to be the outlier. Not sure what the underlying stats favor though, last year or 3 out of the 4 past years.

James
Guest
James
5 years 11 months ago

A very simple four year regression says he’s approximately a .300/.360/.420 hitter next year (if you use ZiPS RoS), or pretty close to his ’08 season. I’m not adjusting for BABIP or age though. Still I don’t think a 4 WAR season is out of the question for him next year, in which case he’d be worth around $16MM annually right? Maybe I’m way off.

Steve
Guest
Steve
5 years 11 months ago

yes, let’s just throw out an entire season’s worth of data b/c it’s inconvenient.

MikeD
Guest
MikeD
5 years 11 months ago

What they pay Jeter on a single-season basis isn’t quite that important since the Yankees can afford it. If I wake up and hear the Yankees signed Jeter to a two-year contract for $50 million it wouldn’t phase me since it’s two years. If they start toying with paying him over four years or more then they’ll have a problem. So give him 50 million for two years, but pass on $60 million for four!

shoewizard
Guest
shoewizard
5 years 11 months ago

He’ll get two years 28 million.

The long drawn out march to 3000 hits will be worth that much next year alone.

Cidron
Member
Cidron
5 years 11 months ago

2 yr, then revisit it then.

Also, where is he going to play ? ok, the obvious answer is shortstop, but… just how capable is he there still (and, how capable down the road)? Can he DH, sure.. but, only if there isnt a Posada or an A-Rod doing that. Can he move to 1b, sure.. if Tex isnt there.. can he slide to 3b.. again, if no ARod.. His play time is very tied to his defensive ability, given the glut of people expected to play 1b, 3b, and DH. To many to have Jeter regularly in that mix.

Ken
Guest
Ken
5 years 11 months ago

2year deal
8 a yr a
Buyout after 2 years if bad

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5 years 6 months ago

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