Comments on: Contract Crowdsourcing Results: Victor Martinez

By: Puffy

Puffy — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 16:15:55 +0000

Wow! The crowdsourcing was remarkably accurate, if the reports are true that he’s about to sign with Detroit for 4 years / $50 million.

By: Puffy

Puffy — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 16:12:08 +0000

Wow! The crowdsourcing was remarkably accurate, if the reports are true that he’s about to sign with Detroit for 4 years / $50 million.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/23/report-the-tigers-are-close-to-signing-victor-martinez/

By: jsp2014

jsp2014 — Sun, 12 Sep 2010 14:33:04 +0000

Mets already have Thole, Josh.

By: visitor analytics

visitor analytics — Sat, 11 Sep 2010 11:37:09 +0000

interesting article.. I like your point of view on this matter. Although there are a few points I disagree on I believe you did a good job purposing your thought. Thanks…

By: Wally

Wally — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 20:11:16 +0000

Not only injury risk and performance, but just the occasional days off. Presumably the more you start him at catcher as he ages, the more you’re going to have to sit him entirely. But if you mix it up more, you can probably keep his bat in there more often. Then the more you play him at catcher, you have to assume his defense will suffer, at least at some point.

He’s only started more than 100 games at catcher as recently as 2007, and that was 118. Though this year he will probably break 100, but it won’t be by much.

In 2009 his positional adjustment was just +.6 runs thanks to roughly even split time between catcher and first, that might be roughly what to expect for 2012 or 2013 at the least. Next year, he will probably be able to keep up something like this year though.

Anyway, considering those factors, and given his bat, I think he’s totally worth 12M/year, maybe even for 4th year, IF it comes with a team option.

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:17:15 +0000

I wonder what the real positional adjustment is on Victor Martinez. The basic WAR adjustment is 25 runs between catcher and first base, but here’s a guy who’s considered a mediocre defender at catcher and potentially a plus-defender at first base. Is it outrageous to think that given a full-time switch to first base, the swing in marginal defensive ability might be as much as 10 runs? (For example, maybe he’s a -6 at catcher and a +4 at first base.)

So now we’re down to a 15-run difference (assuming equally valuable replacements are available to a given team at those two positions). Next question, is outrageous to think Martinez might outperform the 15-run difference as a full-time first baseman, relieved of the physical grind of being a catcher?

Before you answer, keep in mind that when healthy, the guy consistently has rattled off 20- to 25-run seasons as a pure hitter. That means that four months on the DL equates to 15 runs. I’m not saying the position switch is worth four months on the DL per year — of course it isn’t — but I am saying that the decreased injury risk alone gets you perhaps another 5 runs closer.

So now we’re down to less than one marginal win of difference, offset by some hypothetical improvement in pure performance. Depending on what you think of that hypothetical, playing Martinez at first base rather than catcher is at least a reasonable option on the one hand, and arguably a trivial sacrifice on the other.

By: Rich

Rich — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 17:33:21 +0000

Isn’t league average 2 WAR, and therefor worth about $9m? With the chance of him being a significantly better than league average catcher during a chunk of the contract, $12 doesn’t seem like an overpay to me.

Also, he’s making $11m now. I doubt hes taking a pay cut.