Well, we have our first Contract Crowdsourcing result that really surprises me. The votes are in, and you guys think that Victor Martinez is in line for a a pretty sweet deal.
Average length: 3.60 years
Average salary: $11.77 million
Median length: 4 years
Median salary: $12 million
Standard deviation, length: 0.88 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.84 million
Martinez is a good player, no doubt, but I had him at something like 3 years, $30 million, and I could even see the last year not being guaranteed. Catchers age in dog years, and at 31, Martinez probably doesn’t have a ton of good baseball left in him behind the plate. He could extend his career by moving to first base, but the production isn’t enough to make him much more than an average player there.
I like Martinez, but there’s no way I’d give him 4 years and $48 million this winter. Even 3/35 is a bit steep for me, and that’s the low end of the mid-range projection for what he’s going to get. How much longer can we realistically expect major league managers to put him behind the plate? A year, maybe two? A four year deal basically guarantees that the back half of it will be a significant overpay, and you’re not even sure you’ll get much of a bargain up front.
I’d imagine that the crowd will be more accurate in estimating future contracts that I will be, so now I won’t be too surprised if he gets something close to the deal that you guys have projected. I just wouldn’t want to be a fan of the team giving out that contract, though.