Controlling the Running Game Is Overrated

by
June 13, 2012

This post isn’t going to be overly long, because the data mostly speaks for itself.

One of the primary traits that scouts look for in a catcher is a strong throwing arm, and catchers who can throw out opposing base stealers are often considered to be good defenders regardless of what else they do behind the plate. And, there’s no question that creating outs and intimidating runners into staying put is a useful skill, and a catcher who can shut down the running game can add value to his team.

However, this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates are proving just how small a part of overall run prevention that throwing out runners actually is. Here are the leaderboards for National League teams in opposing SB/CS:

Tm SB CS CS%
ARI 21 22 51%
STL 20 13 39%
LAD 36 21 37%
PHI 39 22 36%
SDP 59 25 30%
ATL 40 17 30%
CIN 33 14 30%
SFG 41 17 29%
COL 47 18 28%
LgAvg 41 16 28%
MIA 36 14 28%
MIL 52 17 25%
WSN 37 11 23%
NYM 43 12 22%
HOU 53 14 21%
CHC 53 11 17%
PIT 45 4 8%

The Pirates have thrown out four guys trying to steal all season long, and their CS% is less than half of the next worst team in the NL. Rod Barajas and Michael McKenry have been completely ineffective at throwing out runners, having allowed 41 net steals in the season’s first couple of months.

Despite their complete inability to gun down would-be-thieves, however, the Pirates are allowing just 3.6 runs per game, the third lowest total in the National League. So, despite being about as bad as a Major League team could possibly at this one aspect of defense, the Pirates overall run prevention is actually the strength of their franchise, and the reason the team is still contending for a playoff spot despite an historically bad offense. The story is similar over in the AL, where the Tampa Bay Rays are last in the league in throwing out base stealers (7 CS in 43 attempts), but allow the third fewest runs per game of any AL team.

This isn’t to say that allowing base stealers is good, or that you don’t want a catcher with a strong arm who can keep opponents from trying to take second or third – it’s just not really necessary for keeping opposing teams from scoring, and is more of an enhancement skill than anything. Throwing out base stealers is good, but it’s a very small part of a team’s overall run prevention. The emphasis placed on controlling the running game does not match the impact it actually has on a team’s ability to keep other teams from scoring.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

92 Comments
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Cliff
11 years ago

Let’s not actually try to quantify how valuable it is…

7
Dave Cameronmember
11 years ago
Reply to  Cliff

We already know how valuable it is. A successful SB is worth about 0.25 runs, and a caught stealing is worth about -0.50 runs. Given 49 stolen base attempts, an average NL team would have allowed ~35 steals and thrown out ~14 runners. So, we’re looking at 10 extra SBs and 10 fewer CSs, so just move the decimal over and add the values together to get 7.5 runs lost due to their below average ability to throw out runners.

In other words, not a big deal.

1
L.UZR
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

So 7.5 runs in 60 games = 0.125 runs per game, lowering the run prevention number to 3.475.

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Mark Himmelstein
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

7.5 over less than half of a season seems like more than you’re implying here….if you entirely fault the catcher for those runs (not entirely fair), that would make a league average bat (for the position) roughly replacement level….no?

2
Aaron (UK)
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

The +0.25/-0.50 is fine, but a bit lazy really.

Given we know the base/out situation for each steal attempt we can credit/debit players accordingly (though even then we’ll be missing important info like count). RE24 or even WPA are much more appropriate to use in analysing steals (as opposed to batted balls) because the baserunners have much more control over their intentions.

This is not a specific dig at fangraphs but it does feel that sabermetrics generally has decided it doesn’t like steals much so it can’t be bothered to analyse them as thoroughly as it could.

13
drewggy
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

That’s almost a full WAR over only 60 games. Not sure how that is “not a big deal” when they are now currently 1 game back in the standings.

4
Dave Cameronmember
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

It’s a two win pace over a full season for the worst a team could possibly be at this. No one’s saying this isn’t a thing that has any value, but if the range of possible outcomes at a team level is two wins over a full year, then the emphasis placed on throwing arm is clearly overstated.

As for the leverage aspect of steal attempts, that cuts both ways. Yes, players are more incentivized to take a base in a close game, but they’re also incentivized to not make an out in that same situation. The value of a steal is higher and the cost of a caught stealing is higher. If you want to show that stolen bases are significantly more valuable than 0.25 runs apiece due to the average leverage of situations that they come in, feel free to do the legwork and prove your case.

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Mark Himmelstein
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

But isn’t +/- 2 wins the maximum we’d expect from any single defensive position anyway? Obviously throwing out baserunners isn’t a defensive position, and some it has to be credited to the pitchers holding runners on, but if you credit half of that to the catcher, and say he can create +/- 1 win with his arm alone, isn’t that kind of a big deal? It’s not a big deal for any single pitcher, but for a catcher to add that much relative significance with merely one element of his defensive game does seem like a pretty big deal. No other defensive position can contribute a range nearly that big with just one element of their responsibility (i.e. a shortstop arm value, second baseman’s double play value, center fielder’s range value, etc).

19
L.UZR
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

4-win pace though between Pitt and catcher for division rival StL.

4
brendan
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

dave, I know you are trying to make the point that catcher throwing is over-emphasized, but I’m not sure you’ve done so. As the other comments point out, +/- 1 win for catcher throwing is pretty significant, like the difference between a -10 UZR and +10 for a defensive player at another position. I think that it gets an appropriate amount of attention/emphasis right now.

as for the fact that the pirates are still preventing runs effectively, I think it just speaks to their pitching/defense in other areas. not really so relevant.

6
RC
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

“It’s a two win pace over a full season for the worst a team could possibly be at this. ”

Its not that at all. We saw this a couple of years ago with the Red Sox, where they looked terrible… and then it got worse as teams started running more often.

Also, 2 wins is worth what, $10M now? Thats probably more important in itself than who your manager is, etc. Its a big friggen deal.

13
Eric R
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

“but if the range of possible outcomes at a team level is two wins over a full year, then the emphasis placed on throwing arm is clearly overstated.”

Well that was just about worst possible vs average, which is only about half of the range of possible outcomes.

2 wins between actual and average– isn’t that kind of like saying, “We have a replacement level shortstop already, so upgrading to an average SS is a waste of our time…”?

3
Baltar
11 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron has taken absurd positions in each of last 2 articles and based each one on only 1 example (this one and the Ethier article).
The theme of each is that small differences don’t matter much, which is eithere a tautology (one small difference doesn’t matter much) or false (small differences add up and do matter).
I wonder whether he really believes what he has written in these articles, or whether he is deliberately taking crazy positions to stir controversy. Either way, I wish he would stop.

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