Could Jose Bautista Be Better in 2011?

Since Jose Bautista signed his shiny new contract with the Blue Jays on Wednesday, it has been a popular task to look for players who had comparable power spikes out of nowhere and look at how the rest of their careers unfolded. With legitimate reason, Bautista has been compared to Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez, Rich Aurilia, and Carlos Pena, and his 2010 season does bear some resemblance to their breakout seasons.

But there is an area where Bautista’s season is remarkably different from those four, and almost every other hitter who had a monster season hitting balls over the wall. That difference leads me to wonder if we’re underestimating the chance that Jose Bautista could actually get better.

While Bautista hit .260/.378/.617 last year, he did it while posting a .233 batting average on balls in play, the third worst mark in the Major Leagues. Now, BABIP for hitters is not like BABIP for pitchers, where the outside factors swamp the player’s ability to control whether his balls in play go for hits or not, and as an extreme fly ball hitter, we’d expect Bautista to post a lower than average BABIP. But even accounting for the fact that most of his hard hit balls went over the wall – and thus were not deemed to be “in play” – a .233 BABIP still seems really low.

I decided to look at how other big time sluggers have fared on their non-HR contacted balls and see what the norm is in seasons where they hit for a lot of power. To do that I used the sweet new split seasons tool on the leaderboards to sort by single-season ISO since 1990, and I looked at the BABIP for every player who posted an ISO of .300 or higher. The average? .308.

There does not appear to be a pattern of high power seasons correlating with low BABIPs, even though there is some logic behind the idea that there would be a relationship. In fact, no one in the group posted a lower BABIP than Bautista. There were, however, a few others who were close.

1994 Matt Williams – .239 BABIP, .267/.319/.607, .382 wOBA
2005 Andruw Jones – .240 BABIP, .263/.347/.545, .382 wOBA
2006 Jason Giambi – .245 BABIP, .253/.413/.558, .407 wOBA
1994 Gary Sheffield – .248 BABIP, .276/.380/.584, .398 wOBA
1999 Mark McGwire – .250 BABIP, .278/.424/.697, .453 wOBA

That’s an interesting list of guys. Giambi and McGwire don’t really work as comparisons for Bautista, as they were big, slow first baseman at the ends of their careers. They could barely run, and they both had a history of low BABIPs over the years. Given where Bautista is at this stage of his career, their performance doesn’t seem all that relevant to what we’d expect from him next year.

Sheffield, Williams, and Jones are more comparable in terms of physical skills and where they were in their career arc. Sheffield is perhaps the most interesting, in that he was also a failed third baseman who moved to the corner outfield in order to hide his lack of defensive prowess. He was significantly younger than Bautista, however, and had established himself at an earlier age, so it’s not a perfect comparison, but the overall skillset is somewhat similar.

In 1995, the year after his first .300+ ISO season, his BABIP jumped from .248 all the way to .344. Because it was a strike-shortened year and Sheffield battled injuries, he only managed 276 plate appearances, but his wOBA jumped 50 points as the BABIP correction overwhelmed the regression in his power. Looking ahead another year, Sheffield actually posted another .300+ ISO season, and while he couldn’t sustain the .344 BABIP from the year prior, he did manage a .290 mark that allowed him to keep his wOBA at .454, making him one of the game’s best hitters.

Andruw Jones presents a less rosy outcome. Like Bautista, his power spike came later in his career, and he posted a low BABIP in the same year that he hit 50+ home runs. Like Sheffield, he saw his BABIP raise enough the following year to essentially cancel out the regression in power, and his wOBA in 2006 was basically the same as it was the year before. But Jones’ story doesn’t end there, as you guys know, and his rapid decline from 2007 on has involved consistently low BABIPs. I’d be a bit hesitant to use Jones as a comparison for Bautista unless Jose decides to spend his $65 million at local area buffets. We can’t say for sure that Jones’ weight gain was the reason for his regression, but it certainly couldn’t have helped. As long as Bautista stays reasonably athletic, I don’t think we should be projecting Jones’ early career demise on him.

Matt Williams is also an interesting case. He had two jumps in power at 27 and 28, the latter of which also came with a sharp drop in his BABIP, down to a Bautista-esque .239, though it was a strike-shortened season so the sample is smaller. The following (also strike shortened) season, Williams saw a Sheffield-like bounce in his BABIP and only minimal regression in his power, leading to a .438 wOBA that was easily the best mark of his career. The following year, the power went away but the BABIP stayed high, keeping Williams useful at the plate even as he ceased to be one of the game’s elite sluggers.

These three generally haven’t come up as comaprisons for Bautista because they were more established players when they had their high power/low BABIP combinations, but they do add some interesting dimensions to the mix. Looking through history, the evidence is pretty clear that Bautista should be expected to take a big step back in home runs next year, but there’s also some evidence that improvement in his non-HR results could serve to cancel out some of the coming regression. Perhaps this is one of the reasons the Jays decided to lock him up before he got to free agency, realizing that there’s a decent chance he could still be an elite player even if he doesn’t launch all those home runs again.

The more I look at Bautista, the more I’m talking myself into liking this deal for the Blue Jays. Even if his power takes a big step back, here are a few players who posted similar BB% and K% last year – Evan Longoria, Brian McCann, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Jason Heyward. We shouldn’t expect Bautista’s power to completely disappear, and those guys posted ISOs in the .200ish range and were still highly productive hitters. Even with a big step back in power, if Bautista can sustain his walk and strikeout rates and sees his BABIP jump back to something more normal, he could still be one of the game’s best hitters.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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McE
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McE
5 years 7 months ago

I’ve been arguing in favor of the deal ever since it was announced, so it’s nice to get vindication in the form of a Fangraphs article. The more I look at the numbers, the more I think that if Bautista continues to follow his Pena career arc, this deal has to be considered a good deal for Toronto. The WAR charts make for a nice little comparison.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=934&playerid3=1887&playerid4=&playerid5=

Yirmiyahu
Member
Yirmiyahu
5 years 7 months ago

I also like the deal, despite the fact that they bought high. They couldn’t have waited till next year to figure out whether he’s worth it, as he’ll be a FA. And while 5 years is risky, there’s also potentially a huge reward (in terms of surplus value or trade value). And I don’t think the money involved is franchise-crippling if he turns out to be just average, especially now that Toronto has dumped Rios and Wells.

One thing I wish Dave had brought up: his HR/FB was just as lucky as his BABIP was unlucky.

Adam
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Adam
5 years 7 months ago

And if Bautista’s contract turns into an albatross, he could always be traded to the Angels!

fredsbank
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fredsbank
5 years 7 months ago

oh, really? prove it then, please.

fredsbank
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fredsbank
5 years 7 months ago

yirmiyahu prove it, not adam… everyone at this point knows that’s the way it will happen ;)

PiratesBreak500
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PiratesBreak500
5 years 7 months ago

There’s been some discussion on that in earlier articles. While it’s not in line with his career averages, he has a vastly different stroke than he did a few years ago. So while some of it might be luck, also have to look at his mechanical change; it’s effectively a new sample rather than a deviation from a previous one.

really
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really
5 years 7 months ago

No.

This has been another edition of Simple Answers to Stupid Questions.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
5 years 7 months ago

Really? I assume because the answer is so cut and dry that you would be willing to take 50:1 odds in a bet that Bautista will have a lower WAR in 2011 than in 2010.

bender
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bender
5 years 7 months ago

I dunno about that guy but I would

shthar
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shthar
5 years 7 months ago

I’ll take a piece of that action.

bender
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bender
5 years 4 months ago

Ooh look at who is eating crow now (me)

Mick
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Mick
5 years 7 months ago

Why do people always have to come to places like this and post negative stupid comments? Seriously, if you have nothing constructive to add and only want to be mean, go pull wings off of flies or something.

Dandy Salderson
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Dandy Salderson
5 years 7 months ago

Low babip is what happens when you have a golf swing and try to pull every pitch out of the park.

André
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André
5 years 7 months ago

Bautista doesn’t have a golf swing, actually. His 2010 swing was really nice. You should take a look at some video.

Rudy
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Rudy
5 years 7 months ago

Babip is useless. It fluctuates wildly depending on player characteristics and is not a predictor of luck which is overstated FAR too often by stats sites. It’s rare when a baseball site actually says a player had a bad year anymore. They just point to BABIP and say he was unlucky (ARod, Matt Kemp)! If a guy had a great year he wasn’t good, he was just lucky (Austin Jackson)!

The systemic overuse of babip based on a false assumption that balls put in play randomly turn into hits is nonsense. Player skill is by far the most significant factor in their average which drives babip far more than anything else. Sure it can differ if you are a line drive hitter vs. a fly ball hitter but that is related to the player, not luck. Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew weren’t super lucky their entire careers, they were talented. Mark McGwire wasn’t snake bitten his entire career either. This stat needs to die.

http://fullcountpitch.com/2011/02/08/the-misapplication-of-babip/

Josh
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Josh
5 years 7 months ago

If a guy’s GB, LD, and FB percentages stay relatively even between seasons, but his BABIP fluctuates a lot, there’s clearly luck involved.

adohaj
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adohaj
5 years 7 months ago

NO! not all LD/FB/GB are equal. A slow roller to the pitcher and a sharp grounder up the middle are both counted as GB. If a player only hits slow rollers to the pitcher and puts up a BAPIP of .200 did they get unlucky? Or are they a bad hitter?

B N
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B N
5 years 7 months ago

Not necessarily. Shockingly, the ability to place said 3 categories of balls has something to do with BABIP as well. I seem to recall something called a “shift” and the ability to “hit out of it” as one example of such characteristics.

Saying there are only 3 types of hits in baseball is kind of like saying there are only 3 types of hits in golf or something: drives, puts, and chip shots. Sure, that might be right, but you’re not going to say that the distribution and order of those is the driving factor that makes a golfer any good. Placement matters and there does happen to be some ability to control that, at least for good hitters.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
5 years 7 months ago

Yes in your hypothetical situation in which a major league hitter suddenly turns into a thirteen year old who can only hit slow grounders to the pitcher, a lower BABIP would equate to being a bad baseball player. I wouldn’t expect that I, myself, would have a BABIP around .300 if I played for the Phillies. My BABIP would probably be somewhere between .010 and .020.

Nick
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Nick
5 years 7 months ago

adohaj, I think you’re missing a few things.

First, Josh is saying that the outcome of each batted ball results in a distribution for each player each year. If a player has similar distributions from year to year, then fluctuations in BABIP are most likely to be a result of luck.

You’re isolating a single result and extrapolating a BABIP. Guys who hit a lot of week grounders to the pitcher are either 1) pitchers, or 2) not going to spend very long in the majors.

Over the course of the season (and many batted balls), it would be unusual for a player to hit only a certain kind of ground ball. Like a dribbler back to the pitcher. But rather he would have a distribution within ground balls. The harder a player hits a ball, the more likely it would be for that batted ball to be converted into a hit. But once a player has an established BABIP, it generally bears out that large deviations from the established average regress back to the established average.

You can even establish underlying averages for GBs, LDs, and FBs. Personally, I might remove infield fly balls. But someone who hits a higher % of LDs is going to have a higher BABIP. But from year to year, their higher BABIP can still fluctuate pretty dramatically.

This is the difference between what you see on the field, and what you would see on the field if you watched every single play (for a given player).

Over the course of the season, an extra hit falling inbetween fielders each week adds up to the difference between a guy hitting .280 and him hitting .325.

If the guy hitting all slow rollers to the pitcher had an established BABIP of .250 for the last six years and this year his BABIP is .200, then… yes. He was unlucky. And he’s probably a bad hitter.

Al Dimond
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5 years 7 months ago

That link was a brilliant troll. Made my lunch break. Wow.

Dan
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Dan
5 years 7 months ago

I love the link in this post, as in it gave me a chuckle. He proves that the incorrect way to use BABIP is incorrect.

Not David
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Not David
5 years 7 months ago

Pretty much.

TH
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TH
5 years 7 months ago

Rudy, I’ll try to respond to your point more directly.

I agree with you in general. There’s obviously a reason why Ichiro’s BABIP is higher than the league average. It makes sense simply because he’s an amazing contact hitter.

Where I disagree is the part about BABIP being luck. I don’t think anyone is saying that BABIP is totally random. i.e. “Ichiro could have a .233 BABIP just as easily as Bautista”. Nobody is arguing that.

Rather, it seems that each player has a normal range of BABIP depending on the type of hitter they are. The argument is that Bautista’s BABIP is abnormally low within HIS normal BABIP range. Therefore, It’s unlikely that his BABIP will stay at .233 next year.

Kongos
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Kongos
5 years 7 months ago

The other factor that most people are ignoring is that, from mid-May onwards, Jose played last season with a hernia. He had surgery for it when the season ended.

Paul
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Paul
5 years 7 months ago

The last paragraph is all true. But the Sheffield and especially Matt Williams examples are highly misleading. Williams’ low BABIP year was an extreme outlier, but so was the high BABIP year that followed. His career BABIP was .280.

Know who else had a career BABIP of .280 going into last year in 2,000+ plate appearances? Jose Bautista. In trying to project what his overall line will look like going forward, it might be most productive to compare Jose Bautista to… Jose Bautista. Almost all of his improvement is tied up in the power spike. Power regression means he’s Nick Swisher, which is a useful player and well worth the contract they just gave him.

Jesse
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Jesse
5 years 7 months ago

Enjoyed the article Dave, thanks, and I think Bautista is for real. Looking for 40 HRs and ****load of walks next year.

Beau Hammel
Guest
5 years 7 months ago

Dave, was the BB% you used to compare him to Heyward, Longo, etc. UIBB%?

Colin
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Colin
5 years 7 months ago

Jose Bautista for his career has roughly a 16% LD rate, 44% FB rate, and 39% GB rate, his averages for BABIP on all three are .716, .126 and .240 respectively. So keeping are percentages the same you would expect a .260ish BABIP. So while it was low for him this year, on the whole, you would expect another 12 hits, making his 2010 average .281 and some change.

Last year Jose’s LD rate went down to 15.6%, his GB rate went down to 31.5% and his FB rate skyrocketed to 52.7%. Jose’s expected BABIP is only .253 at those percentages. That’s another 9 hits over his BABIP this past season.

Those are significant increases but I would question whether they can compensate for any kind of decrease in his FB rate or HR/FB rates both of which seem extremely likely.

Colin
Guest
Colin
5 years 7 months ago

Just to summarize, his HR/FB rate for his career was .101 before last year, last year it was .2, basically doubled, and his FB rate went up about 8%. Assuming his FB rate comes back down to 44% by itself nets about 8 fewer home runs just to gain 3 additional hits a significant drop in overall effectiveness. If his HR/FB rate drops to anything resembling .101, well, that could be as much as 23 additional home runs. Those drops would be very substantial and I wouldn’t expect it, but lets say it’s .17 HR/FB and 50% FB rate. That’s 10 fewer HR right there, very little gain in BA.

alexmullen4180
Guest
alexmullen4180
5 years 7 months ago

yes but his HR/FB% changed partially because of a change in his mechanics. Not to say that he will keep up the same he had last year but he will not be dropping to his previous norms because he is not the player he was for the early part of his career.

Brian Cartwright
Guest
Brian Cartwright
5 years 7 months ago

A weighted mean of 2007-2009 had Bautista hitting 27.7% of his outfield flies (LD + FB), where average for RHB is 31.7%, and the previous three year mean had 25.5% of his balls to LF being HR (avg 15.2%). In 2010, Bautista hit 44.5% of his air balls to LF, 37.8% of them for HR. A new 2011 forecast would make that 36.8% to LF, 34.3% for HR, a drop of about 9 HR to LF.

Without the batted ball analysis, Oliver says 38 HRs. Using the three year weighted mean of how many balls he hit to LF, the projection could be up to 45.

Train
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Train
5 years 7 months ago

Great article.
Not conclusive of course, but I think everyone has been far too eager to predict a year of decline, without really coming up with any data based reasons. I don’t really see much, if any luck in his numbers – if anything I see bad luck. I keep looking at Jose’s 2010 stats and don’t see any really compelling reason to think he can’t repeat it. Take the history out and the name off his stats and you’d say he’s an elite power hitter who will probably lose some homers as the hr/fb% was abnormal and he’ll make it up in increased avg as his babip normalizes.
I don’t normally just wipe out history when analyzing a player, unless there is some sort of fundamental change the player has made. This is rare with hitters, but not unheard of and it certainly happens with pitchers when they add a new pitch etc.. Jose dramatically changed his approach at the plate – why can’t that result in a sustained change in results?
Now, I’m not saying he will be better (though I think he will), I just whole-heartedly agree that the possibility should be discussed.

Eric
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Eric
5 years 7 months ago

be BETTER in 2011?!!

*drools

shthar
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shthar
5 years 7 months ago

Yeah.

btw, have you considered the investment potential of Florida real estate?

Adam
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Adam
5 years 7 months ago

Compelling argument Dave, nice job

joe
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joe
5 years 7 months ago

Jose Bautista had 12 infield hits last year…. unless he is legging out flyballs or line drive singles to the outfield his speed isn’t helping his BABIP. And it’s not like his infield hit rate was an aberration and extremely low – it was actually close to double his career rate. If you believe his career #’s his ability to get infield hits should regress and drive his BABIP lower (which would partially offset some of his other expected BABIP gains)

If Bautista was more of a slap hitter like an Ichiro or Gardner, speed may be a substantial impact to his BABIP, but you are talking an extreme pull hitter and an extreme flyball hitter.

It just seems to be another case of applying a generality… speed = more infield hits = higher BABIP, while failing to look at the specific case. Rather than just toss out a general argument to support a pre-defined conclusion (given his speed his BABIP should be better), why not analyze whether that argument actually fits?

While there may be other reasons for his BABIP to regress (improve); I don’t see how speed would be one of the reasons when you look at his #’s last year.

AJS
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AJS
5 years 7 months ago

I still the contract looks bad compared to the one the Brewers gave Rickie Weeks.

DonCoburleone
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DonCoburleone
5 years 7 months ago

Man the more I (and you Fangraph writers) look into Jose Bautista the further and further I keep moving him up my board. I got him in the Top 30 now and he may make his way into the top 25 by the time my draft happens. Mock Draft Central has his ADP at 47 so I’ll probably end up with him..

Dan
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Dan
5 years 7 months ago

Dave, I think it is great that you guys will take the time to go through concepts with readers so thoroughly. Thanks.

Stayonboard
Guest
5 years 7 months ago

Dave,

Fantastic article, maybe the best I’ve read in 2011!

I’d discuss this more but its already been hashed out to death – good luck to Jose in 2011. As a Jays fan, I hope to see em do well. The guy’s playing with a chip on his shoulder, those are the guys you should watch out for!

Have a great weekend all!

MikeB22
Member
MikeB22
5 years 7 months ago

Successful troll is successful! But seriously…really? There is a strong relationship between average and babip?? Gosh, it’s like listening to someone argue it’s cold because it’s snowing.

The Beest
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The Beest
5 years 7 months ago

I don`t see how AA have a choice, base on Bill James and others, the most likely scenario is 30-35 hrs, 95-105 rbis, .350+ OBP, and considering the Werth contract, the Angels view on VWells value, I think the Jays are looking at either 65m now or 100m+ in 12 months. Was it not the BoSox who was trying to trade for Bautista earlier, they have Jd Drew contract expiring next yr right?

JB
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JB
5 years 7 months ago

Well said TH.

vilhelm
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vilhelm
5 years 7 months ago

The guy was a top international prospect. Played year round to improve to the point a team would give him a shot after Pittsburgh pinned him in a reserve role. Always did rake off season pitching

A guy who has talent, worked on it, finally got sufficient exposure to mlb qualitiy stuff to successfully deal with it.

This is a guy who hit 54 home runs. Not 37, 48, or other numbers put up by some not so reliable guys in the past.

Not surprising Bautista would be the real deal, and obviously team who he plays for thinks so, too.

Brian Cartwright
Guest
Brian Cartwright
5 years 7 months ago

I’m confident Bautista can hit 35-40 this coming year.

I had to go back and tweak my hr/fb script, not all the hr’s were labeled as to what field.

I believe the question will be if Bautista can continue to pull the ball at such an excessive rate – he has always had good power. Going into 2010, Bautista was 25th among MLB RHB in HR% on air balls to LF (not park adjusted). In 2010, he both pulled many more balls, and many more of those to LF went for HR’s. Now, after 2010, Bautista has jumped to 2nd on the list behind Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod had a similar pattern a couple years ago when he jumped back up over 50 HR’s, which if you look at Hit Tracker was accomplished by pulling everything to LF, where the fences are shorter. The next year, Rodriguez was back to his long term pattern of fly ball distribution and his HR’s were back down to about 35.

mickeyg13
Member
5 years 7 months ago

I recognize that Bautista is not a true .233 BABIPer, but we have a fair amount of evidence that he’s worse than average. He should be better in that regard this year, but he should still have a somewhat lousy BABIP.

Young Gung
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Young Gung
5 years 7 months ago

I think Bautista should at least be somewhat legit but I truly think 50 homers is out of the question, and honestly 40 should be out of the question unless the league is stupid.

I wouldn’t say Bautista came exactly out of nowhere last year, although it seemed like it. Middle of the year there was a story on how he changed his swing up towards the end of the 08 season and if you look at the last month of that season he went on what would’ve def. been considered a home run tear considering his previous career highs at that point.

Now, I can’t remember exactly what pitch it was and correct me if I’m wrong, but I want to say it was the fastball anywhere middle to in that he sits on and just destroys. If you look at his homer #s 47 of them were pulled 6 to center and 1 opposite. For some reason pitchers around the league (I don’t know if it was due to mistakes or simply bad scouting) kept feeding him those fastballs in his hot zone even in the second half of the season and he kept making them pay. I don’t want to say the book should be out on Bautista because we can’t really say how he will adapt to different pitching, but the book should definitely be out on what pitch not to throw, and that’s the fastball middle to in.

I think if you see pitchers still serving him up that fastball where he wants it he’ll easily exceed 40 homers — He’s proven he can handle that pitch with ease. If the rest of the league takes a hint and starts painting the outside corners of the plate and slightly outside of the strike zone I think he could have a problem even coming close to 40 homers. If pitchers take this route (and I assume that they will adapt and pitch him smarter this year) it will be interesting to see how Bautista adapts to this type of treatment.

jkljk
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jkljk
5 years 7 months ago

Yeah, what kind of idiot pitchers thought it would be a good idea to throw fastballs down the middle of the plate to Jose? They should have thrown every pitch low and outside right on the black like they do to every other hitter.

Young Gung
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Young Gung
5 years 7 months ago

As far as his non-HR results, if pitchers start pitching him away like I think they will I’m not exactly sure what that will mean for those #s, but I predict a regression of some sort in those #s either way. I’m not writing him completely off, but if he proves he can handle outside pitches this year and adapts well than the Blue Jays probably got a solid deal. If he can’t, we might see a completely different Jose this year.

Damaso's Burnt Shirt
Guest
Damaso's Burnt Shirt
5 years 7 months ago

He’s already shown he can lay off most everything off the outside part of the plate in the 2nd half of 2010 as the AL pitched Jose away. His numbers (34HR 75RBI) were better in the 2nd half than the 1st half (20HR 50RBI April-June)

earlweaverfan
Guest
earlweaverfan
5 years 7 months ago

So, the new Manager, John Farrell, has been quoted as saying that last year, with the Red Sox, they tried every manner of different pitch to find a hole in his bat, and were not able to come up with one. I have read statistics that someone used to show that he was at least average or better with each of the main different types of pitch.

Another poster took out his bat and tried to replicate the Bautista swing as shown on MLB and found that it made it almost impossible to hit the down and away pitch, which he also showed himself as very skilled at ignoring.

Remember, this guy started quite slow last year, in part because the Jays were putting him in as lead-off hitter, for which he was totally unsuited, and with limited protection behind him. The pace he will likely fall off of is his pace from the second half of last year. He could do that and still end up at 54 HR for 2011. A very big part of what he achieves will depend on whether the batters on either side of him perform well; if they perform poorly, he will walk 135 times.

Young Gung
Guest
Young Gung
5 years 7 months ago

Well will find out this year for sure. That’s one thing about baseball and why Pujols is so good, consistency in great #s is few and far in between. Not to take away from any of what you guys said, I still look at #s and if you check his hotzone on site like here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/jose-bautista/hotzone/154727

it doesn’t look like he can handle it, he just laid off of it like Damaso said. I know there will always be mistakes left in areas of the zone he can flat out mash, that’s how baseball is, I just think it will be a lot different if he gets pitched outside for virtually a whole season. If he goes for the homers I believe we’ll be seeing at least a decrease in .avg, I think he’s probably a .240 hitter and not a .260 one.

CodyG
Guest
CodyG
5 years 7 months ago

I don’t think it’s possible to have a .300 league average BABIP when 54% of the balls put into play are Fly balls. If he does have a higher BABIP i can’t see how it doesn’t take away his from his dingers when he has a ridiculous 22% HR/FB rate.

Flashback Four
Guest
5 years 7 months ago

Great article Dave. I think that the real beneficiary of his new contract goes to the player that hits behind him this year. He does have the ability to lay off that outside pitch and pitchers will be mandated to allow him to walk before coming back over the plate.

This should bode well for players such as Travis Snider or Adam Lind who may be given more of an opportunity to bat with runners on.

The player that bats ahead of him will also get a lot more pitches to handle than normal.

Regardless of what his yearly totals are, signing Jose Bautista automatically gives 30% of the Jays line-up credibility.

Will
Guest
Will
5 years 2 months ago

You were right about his babip regressing, but wrong about his power regressing

url shortener
Guest
4 years 11 months ago

Hello my loved one! I wish to say that this article is amazing, great written and include almost all significant infos. I’d like to see more posts like this .

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