Cubs’ Players Available in Trades
At this point, it looks like the Cubs are more likely to compete for better positioning in next year’s draft than any postseason play. The team is 27th in the league in runs scored and 23rd in runs allowed, and only the Padres have a worse record. Inevitably, talk has turned to trade rumors. Bob Nightengale reports for USAToday:
The Cubs are letting teams know that nearly everyone but starter Jeff Samardzija is available, two high-ranking team officials told USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity because of competitive reasons.
Obviously some players are more available than others. Alfonso Soriano has about $51 million left on his contract, and though he still has some power, his plate discipline and slightly reduced power levels have left him closer to an average player than he was at the beginning of the contract. Carlos Marmol just signed for three years and $20 million before last season (he has about $14.5 million left), and is now healthy, but has lost the swinging strike rate that made his bad control palatable. Even with a nice stretch of play between now and a possible trade, the Cubs might have to eat as much as 80% of those contracts to get anything of value back.
More interesting to the other teams might be the fact that the same source told Nightengale that there are really no untouchables on the roster past The Shark. Bryan LaHair is 29, doesn’t always make the most contact, and is in the midst of coming back to earth, but he’s got years of control left, seems to have legitimate patience and pop, and might make for an offensive infusion for the right team. Matt Garza has a year of control left and seems to have improved his strikeout rate in Chicago, at least partly thanks to a change in his pitching mix. Spending $9+ million and a lower-level prospect on Ryan Dempster for the rest of the season might make sense for the right team.
Trading this group would net the team some pieces with a shot at contributing to the next competitive Cubs team, but there was one more available piece that could bring back impact prospects — and he could be attainable, too, according to Nightengale’s sources. Starlin Castro.
The subject of some unflattering statistical oddities, Starlin Castro is an interesting character. The fact that he is possibly on the block might surprise some, particularly those that love fantasy baseball — his high batting averages and decent stolen base speed look nice in the box scores. But that isn’t to say he doesn’t have faults. A terrible walk rate and below-average power have kept him from being worth more than 10% better than league average with the stick, and his defense has divided those into pro- and anti-Castro camps.
Then again, the positives are obvious. His bat may only be around 10% above league average, but that’s 21% above the wRC+ of your average qualified shortstop this year. He’s a 22-year-old shortstop that can handle the position (at least in the short term) no matter what you think of his glove. Since he’s young, his batting components — power and patience in particular — should improve even if his glove doesn’t. And, most importantly perhaps, without any improvement, he’s a three-to-four win shortstop that’s under team control until 2016. He should bring in an impressive haul.
Do the Cubs work around the edges and bring in some smaller pieces with a lesser chance of making an impact on the major league roster while hoping to strengthen their system primarily through the draft? Or do they take their main piece and cash him in for higher-quality pieces in order to overhaul the system in one fell swoop? Unfortunately for Cubs fans, that’s the main speculation they get to enjoy for the rest of the season.
I would love to see the Cubs move Castro if it would replenish the farm system. Until he learns to draw a walk, he’s more valuable as a trade chip.
It would have to be some kind of astronomical haul. There aren’t many prospects I would see as worth trading a 22-year-old shortstop who led the league in hits last season with 4.5 more years of team control for.
All and together now (things are getting good looking better now): He’s 22 and has the same WAR as Hanley since 2010. He’s pretty valuable as an actual player.
His value to the Cubs roster is not much. Consider the difference to them is an improvement of 1 win over the course of a losing season. As a trade chip, he might get the farm system up and going, that could be worth something.
“Up and going” … it’s not like they have the worst farm in the league. Most slotted them around the late teens/early 20s before the season, with tons of potential breakout candidates. It’s not an overly impressive farm, yet, but it’s also not a barren wasteland like some other teams in Chicago.
“that could be worth something.” Thanks Steve K. While trading for prospects “could” be worth something, Castro is currently worth alot and is only 22. Yes, someone needs to teach him patience, and when that happens he will also develop more power. He already looks stronger (see Miguel Cabrera circa 2003 compared to now). While I don’t see Miggy’s power from Castro, I do see 20-25 HRs/yr within the next 3 years. At that time the Cubs will be competative again.
The Cubs will make a mistake if they trade Castro because he’s a “gamer.” I know that term won’t go over big with some here, and usually it doesn’t mean much to me honestly. But in this case, Castro has shown a real desire to see his team win. He is still very young, and he’s basically working out his swing in the majors instead of the minors.
Just wondering what, specifically, he’s done to “show a real desire to see his team win” that can’t be said about 95% of every other player?
Any chance some of Castro’s off the field stuff (pre-season assault case for instance) make the team more willing to trade him?
So is he a “gamer” because he has his back to the plate while his pitcher is throwing? They’ve said multiple times he lacks concentration and loses attention during the course of the game.
“They” say a lot. I don’t know. But I see a guy who is very young, and already achieved things many players never do. Has this led to bad habits; absolutely. But when a guy bats over .300 at age 20 and 21 (and 22), I think we should cut him a lot of slack for wanting to hit the cover off every ball he sees.
And that’s where he’s a gamer. The guy wants to make a hit. Plays aggresive. If the Cubs are convinced that he can’t be helped, then they should be firing their hitting coach, not the best player on their team.
I thought saying Castro was available was just a “no one is untouchable” philosophy…saying “but Samardzija” ruins that thought.
I love the idea of an “off limits” player. I forget who lampooned this idea earlier this year, but the basis of their argument was that only an illogical and stubburn person would truly keep a player “off limits” if the right trade came along. In the same vein, every player is “available” on every team if the price is right. The only thing saying this publicly really means is that the Cubs are throwing in the towel on 2012. They don’t want fans to be surprised if they trade MLB players for MiLB players.
Very interesting article Eno, and thanks for writing about the ‘knob holders,’ good stuff
So, what would be a reasonable return for a 22 year old shortstop that is MLB proven? I’m guessing at least one top 10 prospect, right?
Top 10 for that team? Absolutely. Or are you talking top 10 in all of baseball? Not every team has one of those.
Just off the top of my head… Red Sox could offer Iglesias, Garin Cecchini and Ranaudo or Jacobs for a franchise SS.
I was saying at least one top 10 prospect in all of baseball. I don’t think every team would realistically be able to trade for Castro.
If I’m the Cubs I don’t take that deal from the Red Sox. Castro will be a strong trade chip for 2013 and 2014 too probably. Obviously, the closer he gets to FA and if he falls off his value goes down. However, I don’t think Epstein will pull the trigger if the offer isn’t compelling.
A strong draft this year and next year combined with a good Castro haul could give the Cubs a top 3 farm by mid 2013.
They could maybe do Lahair and Garza to the Phillies for Brown and some raw guys. Maybe Castro to Atlanta for Simmons, Gilmartin, and maybe Minor (if you think he’ll turn it around), or maybe Teheran/Delgado if you think ATL would go or it which I don’t think they would. Maybe Garza to the Red Sox for Iglesias and some raw pieces.
I think the key is that Epstein is going to want 21-23 year olds who are a year or two away. If he can get 5 or 6 around the same age and ability level as Rizzo and Jackson, they call up up within the same 2 years and the turn around is fairly quick with the right FA moves.
If I’m the Cubs, I laugh at Ben Cherington for about 20 seconds before putting the phone down. That’s not even close to an offer that would get Castro. *Not a Cubs fan either*
@jayT: Not sure to be honest, the new draft rules will likely make teams a bit shy of emptying their system when it’s even more incredibly difficult to refill it. He’s very good, but he’s not a Tulo/Hanley type of talent that every ball club would investigate, IMO.
I dunno, Starlin is 8th in WAR among shortstops since his call up, and he’s two years younger than any of the guys ahead of him. Tulo is obviously better, but I’m not convinced that Hanley’s value is that much higher right now. Hanley has more power, but Starlin is younger and has a better hit tool, and while neither are great shakes at short, at least Castro currently plays there.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0
Vote -1 Vote +1
Make that tied for sixth in WAR (tied with hanley) since his callup. Counted wrong.
Hanley is not even a SS now.
Ya don’t say? News to me. Still, if we’re creative, we might still gain something from comparing his and Starlin’s WAR since 2010. First, someone should figure out if Hanley ever was a ss, and how much time he’s spent there since 2010. I say we crowdsource it.
Perhaps the Cubs can make a play for SS Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox) and also get Youkilis in the deal as a stop gap 3Baseman.
Castro, Soriano, + cash and another prospect?
See if Nava or Ross can be had as well with the right package mix.
With Middlebrooks called up, it’s more likely Cubs would go after youth (Cecchini, Jacobs, Bogaerts, Iglesias, Lavarnway, Brentz, Ranaudo, Barnes) Boston definitely has a lot of pieces.
I can’t see a deal with the Red Sox where Middlebrooks isn’t involved.
Pieces of what? A ss who can’t hit and a catcher who can’t catch are not good trade chips
I don’t see the red sox having the pieces for him
“I can’t see a deal with the Red Sox where Middlebrooks isn’t involved”
Then there won’t be a deal with the Red Sox.
Kevin Youkilis is gone next year. Middlebrooks is a defensively elite 3B, is putting up a .394 wOBA right now (and that jibes with his MLEs), and is 23, and has several more years of control than Castro.
I don’t think the Red Sox would trade Middlebrooks straight up for Castro.
Nope. The Cubs are hoping Ian Stewart can hold the bag until Josh Vitters shows consistency. Vitters is the guy.
If you like Castro’s plate discipline, you’re gonna love Josh Vitters.
I always thought this was silly. Every player on every team is available…for the right price. Some idiot GM comes in and bowls you over with their top 5 prospects and a couple of major leaguers and you can have anybody on the roster.
I think it’s a bit of gamesmanship. Saying that a guy is untouchable puts your team in the drivers seat when it comes to negotiations. If you say everybody is available you seem more desperate.
Hahaha. Yeah, no one can smell the desperation on the Cubs. No one.
Castro for Jacob Turner? Who hangs up first.
Theo doesn’t even answer the call.
Honestly, I don’t think Jacob Turner is going to end up that great of a pitcher in the majors. I see #3/4 in his future.
why is Turner a 3/4? I’m not arguing either way, just curious why you think that since most scouts have him pegged as a top-of-the-rotation guy
I don’t really get to watch prospects, and certainly not Detroit ones. However, I do tend to follow the numbers of them a bit. Looking at Turner’s numbers, nothing jumps out at me to say he’ll be a really good pitcher.
Turner’s had 3 instances of making 10+ starts. From one stint to the next, the FIP has gone up, as have the walks. The Ks dropped, then were flat, and this is with a BABIP that dropped before staying at .278. That he is a 7 K/9 pitcher with a mid-3.00s FIP at A+ and AA kind of says to me that I shouldn’t get my hopes up about him.
Turner’s numbers don’t say anything that leads me to believe he would be better than, say, Jarrod Parker, who has managed a better FIP and K/9 than Turner, yet is typically advertised a step or two below Turner.
There’s no assurance in what I say about him, but Turner just doesn’t jump out at me in any way. He seems like a fairly average guy in the minors, and I’ve yet to see him put up numbers where he dominated the minors.
Of course, Parker’s 3 years older and Turner just hit 21, but I still am just not crazy about Turner because of the numbers I’ve seen.
I haven’t seen anyone projecting Turner as a top of the rotation guy for a long time. I think the consensus is that he’s probably going to be about a #3 guy.
Turner has overrated stuff (low 90s fastball and decent yet unspectacular secondary stuff…lol at the Baseball Failmerica Hype Machine saying that he touches 98) with serious shoulder issues.
Theo would laugh hysterically at the proposed offer of Starlin for Turner.
What about Castro to the Nats for Zimmermann, Rendon, and Desmond?
As a Braves fan, I sure hope they’d take it. I’d throw in Pastornicky to get that deal done.
I agree the Nats should go after him, but that’s way too much for Castro. I also don’t think the Cubs would have much interest in an often injured Rendon. Maybe something like Desmond or Espy, Detwiler, Goodwin and Rosenbaum gets it done.
Honestly I think Lahair would make a lot of sense for the Nats depending on Laroche/Morse’s health and would fill the Werth void from the right side of the plate in a platoon with Laroche at 1B
LaRoche has been healthy this whole year and he’s a left handed hitter. Morse is coming back in the near future. Having a guy like LaHair can’t hurt if you’re the Nats(you can use him as depth or a pinch hitter) but he wouldn’t be worth much.
The idea of Theo trading Castro shouldn’t be surprising. While Castro has great contact skills, Theo values players with high OBP and plate discipline. And better to trade Castro now as a SS since his value diminishes if, in fact, it’s proven that he has to move to another position.
Also, I’ll always believe that Theo’s biggest concern about Castro is Castro’s character as evidenced last year during a nationally televised game when Castro was daydreaming and had his back turned to the batter as the pitcher delivered the pitch. Plus his well-publicized offseason sexual encounter didn’t help either.
The obvious rebuttal is that in time Castro will grow up but I suspect Theo had his fill of head cases in Boston and will not roll the dice on Castro when he can receive a number of talented players for Castro (and Garza) to accelerate his rebuilding.
theo likes obp, obviously, but I assume he also recognizes that a .300+ average with pop is very valuable from a 22 year old shortstop, even one with a .330 obp and sketchy hands (and, it should be noted, plus range). obviously, starlin would be more valuable should his patience improve, but a quick look around baseball shows that his current production is rare at his position.
That’s the best comment here.
Suppose the Blue Jays would get involved in the rumours (as they do with every other big name), what kind of package do you think it takes for Castro? Would something involving Hechevarria/Syndegarrd/Snider/JPA get it done, or would the deal not move anywhere without TDA (ie Jays’ #1 prospect) being involved?
Turner, Castellanos and Loy?
The idea of Starlin Castro ripping balls off the green monster could be a delight for Sox fans. And, I think Castro and Pedroia could really grow together.
Epstein has done it before when he traded Garciaparra (star shortstop at the time) against the consent of the fan base.
I guess the question one might ask is what is the “best” Starlin Castro you are ever going to get? 30 homers per year and 100 RBI’s? What’s his maximum OBP and defensive metrics? For those of us who love OBP, it’s painful seeing Castro and Soriano constantly kill rallies and scoring opportunities because they are attacking bad pitches and attempting to hit moon shots in bad counts.
It has a noticeable effect on the lineup.
With the lack of shortstops out there……….I would think Iglesias would have to be part of the package if the Cubs deal with Boston. But, then again, if you are acquiring players, and stockpiling depth, it’s not impossible that Theo and Jed could turn around and then trade for someone above average if they can get other players that could be flipped.
Either way, it’s not like they would have to solve the shortstop situation this season. Darwin Barney could fill in for a while and they could possibly sign someone like Stephen Drew in 2013 if his option is not picked up.
Side Note: I think Theo massively increased his bargaining power for Castro by letting the memo slip out that all players were available except for JS………and then pulling back and saying that he would have to be overwhelmed to move the young shortstop. Poker move.
why all this sox talk? they already have two shortstops in bogaerts and nostick iglesias and i bet if one doesn’t pan out the other will
Castro is a prototypical Dayton Moore player. I can see him getting involved for Starlin to move him to 2B. He has a SS to offer, #4 overall pick Christan Colon, who is starting to hit at AA after being aggressively promoted for two years. He can stay at SS for Theo (see Aviles, Michael), his bat fits the Theo profile, and he’s a Pedroia-type team leader.
The Royals also have Mike Montgomery, who will never fit in with the Moore regime because he’s a long-tosser and truly believes that switching to their program almost blew out his arm. He’s up and down in AAA again, but yesterday he went 7 innings, 1 earned against the Iowa Cubs. If Theo’s guys like him I think that’s piece 2.
Since Theo is unorthodox, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take on TJ rehabbers John Lamb (almost ready to throw again) or Danny Duffy. Mike Moustakas makes Cheslor Cuthbert expendable. The Royals definitely have the pieces without even getting into throw-ins that Team X’s fans just want to get rid of. They can offer four players who would be in the Cubs Top 10 right away, and two who could be in Chicago by July.
Theo has to listen to trade offers – if someone blows him away with something, he should take it, but Castro is extremely valuable and is a proven commodity. It would have to be an unbelievable offer for it to be a good one.
Any trade of Castro to the red sox would have to involve Xander as a starting point. But they definitely have the chips to get it done
That rumor didn’t last very long. Nice article though…
‘Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has denied that his team is exploring deals for Starlin Castro, report Doug Padilla and Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago. “Starlin Castro is the type of player we’re looking to build around,” Epstein said. “There has been no trade consideration with him whatsoever.”‘
I guess he’s not going to be traded for ‘turning his back on pitch’ when he was 21 years old.
I can’t even remember 21.
What else could Theo say? Did you expect him to say the following:
“Today I would like to publicly announce that Starlin Castro is available in a trade and here are the reasons:
“Even though Castro has a great hit tool, he lacks plate discipline which I highly value and I don’t have confidence that Castro will acquire any such discipline.”
“Also, I believe that Castro will have to move off SS so I want to trade him before his value goes down and before other teams realize the same thing.”
“I know that some fans believe that Castro is a ‘gamer’ and ‘has shown a real desire to see his team win’ but that doesn’t reconcile with Castro having his head up his butt and daydreaming during a game. Paying attention to the pitcher and batter is learned instinctively the first time we play ball. The fact that a ML player still doesn’t understand this really ticks me off. I doubt this kid will ever grow up.”
“I hope this information helps you understand my thoughts on trading Castro but let’s keep this a secret from the other 29 GM’s as they are still dreaming on Castro.”
I don’t see a scenario where the Cubs would be motivated to move Castro for less than 4 of the top 100 prospects in the game. Highly unlikely, right? Only a few teams could even boast having that many in the top 100 or so to offer but that’s my point: it’s just not realistic that Castro will move. He’s already an above average SS with nowhere to go but up, he’s cheap for a long time and the Cubs control his rights for a long time.
The Cubs quietly have a nice core on the horizon with Castro at SS, Brett Jackson in CF, Soto (yes, I still believe) or Wellington Castillo at C, Anthony Rizzo at 1B and rotation fronted by Garza and Samardzija. The second tier also includes Josh Vitters at 3B, Junior Lake at 3B/2B/OF and potentially LaHair manning LF if he can prove adequate defensively (granted, that’s unlikely). I wouldn’t pretend that any of these guys are obviously impact players, yet, and I would advocate trading several of them away and playing for the next window, but I present this as further evidence that the Cubs aren’t as far away as many think.
They will have a ton of money to play with over the next couple of seasons as almost every expensive contract will come off the books so it’s not hard to imagine a play for top FAs along the lines of Hamels or Greinke. I don’t envy the spot the Cub’s front office is in right now as they could go either way but I suppose the ease with which they move forward will depend heavily on their ability to move Soriano and Marmol for their terrible contracts, Dempster for his desire to not be traded (and no-trade clause), LaHair for his age and lack of lengthy track record and Soto for his maddening inconsistency.
The exact thing same could have been said about Latos. And we know that McCutchen, Upton, Jones all were floated as possibilities if their teams got bowled over. You are exactly right that it would take four Top 100 prospects or a combination including young MLB players who have Top 100 value and upside.
However, I think you are dramatically overestimating where they are. That farm system is a mess. You have listed a couple guys who are borderline Top 100 players at this stage. Off the top of my head, surely Baez is their top prospect and he’s a ways off.
Let me ask you this. If the Royals gave up Colon, Montgomery, Aaron Crow (converted back to rotation), Kelvin Herrera or Cheslor Cuthbert, and Johnny Giavotella for Starlin, would you take that? That’s probably better than the Padres package for Latos. The Royals wouldn’t do this deal because they would rather give all these guys away once they have completely destroyed their value, but this is the type of deal the Cubs need to make. I think Theo’s assessment of where they are is nowhere near as optimistic as yours.
Latos? Not comparable to Castro. He had injury issues and wasn’t hitting .300 at age 20. But I do agree it would take 4 top 100 prospects for Castro, at least.
Castro wasn’t brought in by Epstein’s regime, so who knows if they want to keep him?(The first line of the story about the Shark being the only untouchable lends to the idea that they are not super in love with Castro).
The Cubs will have a lot of money to spend, true, but look at Epstein’s track record with free agents. Lackey, Crawford, Daisuke, etc. don’t inspire confidence in FA signings. Epstein builds through the farm system, so if Castro can bring 4 or 5 great players, then trade him.
As a Cubs fan I’d rather trade Garza, but if Castro is that valuable he needs to go.
Castro could be the next Derek Jeter. He is an amazing. Sure he needs to improve on stuff but he could be one of the cubs best shortstops of all time. I believe he will more and more 200 hit seasons. In my opinion I think the Cubs need to trade Rizzo. Rizzo is around 26 and that is more expierence in baseball and when he made his debut in the show he struggled. Castro is 4 years younger than Rizzo and his debut was amazing. I don’t even think Castro has struggled at the plate. Plus if we got some “great” prospects how good could they be anyway. Haven’t we already made mistakes by playing our top prospects. Such as Dolis and Colvin.
ok, above comment was posted by my 11 year-old before I could edit it. He is a Starlin Castro fan who expresses his disillusionment with the value of a trade for “prospects,” which anyone who has lived through the Felix Pie/Brooks Kieshnick/Corey Patterson experience can identify with.
Hey wasn’t the Marlins that expressed a love for Castro earlier this season?
Castro to Atlanta for Simmons, Gilmartin, and maybe Minor. Seriously? 2 first round lhp and our second round ss of the future? What a joke!
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Teams obsessed about trading top assets for longshots future 2016 prospects are pretty ridiculous. Cubs dont have that many *good assets*, but castro-garza and shark could be the core of the next playoff teamS. Gambling on trading top players for 2016 unknown wannabeee.
Stop worrying about teenagers playing good ball in HS. We have some good pieces in the majors. KEEP THEM, and manage your farm-youth process after.
what david said
I was in the camp that thought Castro was never going to get past his defensive shortcomings. But his defensive numbers are really very good this year. If he can maintain that level of defense, he is extremely valuable.