Curtis Granderson Hitting in the Bronx
The keystone of yesterday’s big trade is the Yankees’s new centerfielder. As Dave Cameron noted Curtis Granderson is an all-star level player: under 30, an above average hitter and an above average fielder at a premium defensive position.
Granderson is a legitimate power threat, a big part of his offensive game. He has a career ISO of .211, and in 2009 busted out with a career high 30 HRs. One reason for the additional HRs was his career low 29.5% GB/BIP second lowest in the game. His power, unlike Joe Mauer‘s, is fairly standard pull power.
Comerica Park is a pitcher’s park and Granderson has generally had a better ISO away than home. At Yankee Stadium, which might be the best place for lefty pull-power hitters, this should change. Here is the HR/BIA rate by angle of the ball in play for LHBs in Yankee Stadium versus Comerica Park.
Right field, where Granderson hits most of his HRs, at Yankee Stadium has a much higher HR rate than right at Comerica Park. So, Granderson should see a boost to his already solid power in New York. The Yankees got not only a all-star-level player, but one well suited to their park.
Except for hitting some extra HR’s, I really don’t see why the Yankees traded so much for this guy. He is clearly not the answer, and it muddies the whole OF picture. It may require a deal with Damon that is not necessarily in the Yankees best interest.
He is clearly not the answer,
In the sense that he is neither Allen Iverson nor a wearer of the number 42, you would certainly correct. Though 28 is 2/3 of 42, so perhaps he’s on the way there.
Bah! Only meant to italicize the first line.
Htmlfail.
42 is retired so Granderson cannot be the Ultimate Question.
Mariano Rivera can, though.
Apropos, since nobody can figure out how he’s the greatest reliever ever with one pitch.
I’m sorry, what did the Yankees give up that was so valuable? Austin Jackson who, in his dreams hopes he can be as good as Curtis Granderson? Phil Coke, who as a middle reliever is extremely replaceable and could easily be replaced internally by Mike Dunn? Ian Kennedy, a product of the Yankee prospect hype machine, coming off a serious injury, and projects at best to be a #5 pitcher? Yes, Jackson could be a serviceable player (though at this point he’s not much better than Melky or Gardner), Kennedy could find some moderate success in the NL West (it is the NL West after all), and Coke could continue to be a decent middle reliever, but all of those parts are easily replaced.
Granderson is cheap, improves the CF defense (and additionally improves the LF defense if Melky shifts over there), and is in his prime of his career. I have no problem with the Yankees trading young players/prospects if they are getting good cost controlled players in the primes of their careers. The reason they have gotten in trouble in the past is that they were trading their prospects for overpaid veterans that were past their primes. Finally, the Granderson deal doesn’t preclude the Yankees from resigning Damon or Matsui, but it does put them in a better negotiating position with them because now they have options.
Actually, Kennedy was topping out at 93 in the AFL, and learning to command the cutter he recently added. He has dominated at every level of the mLs, but whatever.
IPK is a good pitching prospect/young pitcher, sure. His ceiling is projected to be a ~#4 starter. He pitched well in the AZFL, though I’m not sure you can draw too many conclusions from that except that he seems to be healthy. I think he can do well in the NL. Good for him, btw.
I’ll miss him, but you have to give something up if you want to get talent. Granderson is a solid upgrade in CF. He’s not old. His contract is reasonable. This is a good trade. It’s not the sort of heist than Swisher for Betemit was, but I’m happy.
“Austin Jackson who, in his dreams hopes he can be as good as Curtis Granderson?”
Do people really dream about being as good as Curtis Granderson? Jackson is a good prospect and as is the case of most prospects you won’t know how good they are until they play at the MLB level. Could the Yanks have given Jackson AB’s this year and still been a 1st place team or World Series contender?
If they don’t they should.
Dave Allen, for the win.
Based on the majority of responses and positive articles on Granderson would it be fair to say most people here think he is an elite overall player who should be a perennial all star?
My dreams involve being paid like Jason Bay.
Why the NL West bashing? The NL West had the best composite record of any division in the NL last year. As for being a good place for pitchers, I’ll give you Petco and the Giants, but the Rockies and Dodgers are two of the highest scoring teams in the NL and the D’Backs play in a hitters park. Keep in mind, he doesn’t get to pitch against the D’Backs. Actually, based on last year’s stats, he’d be much better off pitching in the NL Central—specifically, the Brewers.
And when we change Dave’s chart to the last 2 year or 4 years? Yeah. We all get that Granderson was off the chart great in 2007. But if we can talk BABIP in 2009, we need to mention 2007 as well. The guy is still good. Almost anyone will take an 830 OPS in CF. But his defense and baserunning has slipped from 2 years ago. He’s likely losing some athleticism, and not reverting to 2007 form anytime soon. 3-4 WAR player, but let’s not get carried away.
dsss i have to concur with Kevin S. If you think the following is too much:
-a middle reliever
-a 25 year old minor league control artist who has not yet had major league success who’s ceiling is maybe a number 3 starter
-a center field prospect who without a doubt will not be as good of a player as Granderson over the next two years
then you would never get a trade done in baseball. Even if Jackson becomes a star, it won’t be for a couple of years. He struggled in AAA this year. You can’t expect success in the majors next year that’s for sure.
On top of all that, Granderson is getting paid $5.5 million in 2010 and he’s not even 30. That’s insanely cheap.
The only way to say this is too much is too assume the absolute best for IPK/Jackson and the absolute worst for Granderson.
How sure are we that Jackson won’t be as good as Granderson?
We’re not *sure*, but I think we can reasonably think that Jackson won’t be a three-win player in his first couple of seasons.
Jackson may not be a 3 win player in his first couple of years but that basis enough to say he won’t be a good to great MLB player? It would be completely possible for a player to become a 3 win player as he enters his prime years correct?
I don’t think anybody has said he won’t be a good player – just that he’s unlikely to be as good as Granderson, who’s pretty close to being great.
Austin Jackson doesn’t have the power. Curtis Granderson minus the home runs is his ceiling.
We don’t need to be sure about Jackson’s ceiling. We can be pretty sure that he won’t grow to that ceiling in the next two years. That was my point. Even if he becomes the next Rickey Henderson, that won’t happen for two years at least. And even if that did happen, this would be a good deal because the Yankees have clearly made themselves better for the next two years without doing anything to hurt their major league club, all while saving money! Jackson was not going to be starting in April. He’d still be in the minors. I just don’t see him having a chance to start on the Yankees until 2011.
You can’t expect anything more from a trade.
Dr. Spacemen – at 22, Granderson hit 11 HR in A+ ball. When he was Jackson’s age. He didn’t look like he had the power either.
Chip is correct. Jackson still has time to develop power. But like I said this deal could be a win for the Yanks even if Jackson becomes a hall of famer.
If Granderson only does what he did last year with the park adjustments factored in, and his defense stays a little above average. If he does this for two years, this is a good deal for the Yanks.
the “answer” to what?
what was the question?
how do you improve the defending World Champs? that is an answer to that question, certainly.
not sure what your point about Damon means.
He is clearly not the answer
I am not sure what the question is then. If the question is: “Who solidifies a premium defensive position for the Yankees, the only one where they did not have an All-Star caliber player last season for the next few years at below market prices?”, I would assume he is the answer.
It isn’t that the Yankees have too many question marks to begin with, or at least not too many relative to their competition.
When an All star team is made there is literally another 70+ games to play do we grant an All star status here to players based on the overall season or because he made an all star team in July?
Take your pick. There is obviously some definitional fuzziness, but I don’t think it is unfair to say that Curtis Granderson is capable of playing at an All Star level, whichever reasonable way you may want to define it.
Dave, you left us wanting the punch line.
How many additional HRs should we expect because of the team change?
This is a good question and a natural way to end the article. I might address it in a future post.
What is that line sticking out on the left in the image? Did he hit a home run from the visitors dugout?
The power hitter hit it off the backstop and it went over the CF wall for an HR. What a guy!
The plate and field are, obviously, not to scale. This is a compromise I made so that I could show the location of the pitch on the plate and the angle of the HR in play. That one HR far outside looks based on the field scale like it is in the dugout, but on the plate scale it is really just a little off the plate away.
Was wondering the exact same thing!
Why are AL teams making trades to help improve the Yankees team? Makes no sense to me.
vr, Xei
Government conspiracy. Our war (not WAR) effort seems to work better when the Yankees are playing well. Look at the Yankees during the Vietnam years. Whew.
Because it relieves them of the responsibility to pay established players, and an NL team decided to do an incredibly stupid thing and help out the said AL club?
Because they hate the Arizona Diamondbacks more? ;)
Seriously, I don’t think helping the Yankees was much of a consideration for Detroit. I know it’s hard for people in the northeast to believe, but folks in the rest of the world don’t make every decision based on the impact it has on the Yankees-Red Sox. I’m a little surprised Detroit didn’t get more back but apparently this was primarily a cost-containment move for them.
I see how Yankees stadium is a better place for Grandy to hit with his pull power. What I don’t see is whether or not Comerica was a bad place for him to hit with his pull power. I know that Comerica is a pitcher’s park overall, but I thought the RF porch was pretty favorable for LH pull hitters after they moved the fences in a few years ago. Would love to see the second graph set against the average – or a representative sample of what we could reasonably agree is average. Nice article.
Based on the THT article on HR park effects from 2007 (note that included the old Yankee stadium, not the new one), the right center field at Comercia was just about average and right field was more hitter-friendly than average — but still less hitter-friendly than parks with reputations for a short RF porch like (old) Yankee Stadium or Miller or Safeco (or an all-around hitter’s park like Great American).
Thanks. With that I would then expect a small power uptick, but also noting that the lefties in the AL East are a significantly better group. Even in the second tier with young guys like Matusz, Rzepczynski, Cecil, and Price are quite a bit better than no lefties at all in KC, Duensing, Laffey, Liriano. Still an excellent deal for the Yankees, but I don’t think folks should get carried away projecting a big power spike.
Where did you get that info for the Yankee Comerica parks graph? Can some tell me if there’s a place that allows you to view other parks without having to make a graph manually.
I used the GameDay data to calculate the angle in play of each hit. Then I took each non-groundball and calculated the fraction of those hits that were HRs for each angle. You need to scrape the data off the GameDay files in the same way you get the pitchf/x data.
Yankee Comerica, that’s so clever!
ignore that last comment, i’m an idiot. brain cramp. apologies.
The Data is all in the name link, but Curtis Granderon’s luck-neutral 2010 slash line if he played for the Yankees would have been: .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS) with 39 HR. The Yankees made out BIG in this trade
The chart illustrates the difference in how ALL hitters did in NYY vs Comerica, but that does not mean Granderson will follow the same pattern.
Throwing some numbers out for illustration, let’s say the RF fence at NYY is 360, 370 at Comerica. Granderson will only gain a HR on any balls hit between 360 and 370. If he consistently hits balls further than that, he might not see any change.
In 2008 Jimmy Rollins hit 30 HRs, Prince Fielder 50, both playing in homer friendly home parks. According to Hit Tracker, none of Rollins’ 30 HRs went more than 410 feet. Fielder hit 30 further than 410. If we made a hypothetical field 410 ft all the way around, Rollins would go from 30 to 0, a 100% loss, while Fielder would go from 50 to 30, a 40% loss.
The guys with the highest percentages of HRs are affected less than the average player by changes in ballparks.
Check out this link:
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/12/projecting-curtis-grandersons-2010.html
3/4 of the page down is granderson’s 2007-2009 HR spray charts. 60/73 home runs were to right
I don’t know if this concern is valid, but one thing I wonder is if Curtis will become “enamored” with the “short porch” and lose sight of what he does best and perhaps get all “Willie Mays Hayes” about it?
We’ve been making a big deal about Granderson’s HR potential in these “value of the trade” discussions. But, IMO Grandy’s real value is in simply “extra base hits”. When he busted out in 07, he was a doubles and triples machine. Now he seems more content with just hitting 30 HRs (in 710 PA’s, no less), while his BA has dropped significantly over the last 3 years —- .302 => .280 => .249
We’re actually referring to Grandy as a “Lefty Pull Power Hitter”, and I guess to some degree he is. But, if he is to hit 40 HRs, will it be with the same BA or OBP or is he looking to “lift everything”? I guess I just view Granderson’s greatest value being as more of line drive hitter to the gaps and hitting closer to .300 than adding 5-10 more HRs and hitting under .250 (getting himself in scoring position more often than the HR increase would)
If he hits at the top of the order, he’ll likely get his 700+ PA’s and have a shot at 30-35 HRs, but do the NYY really want a .340 OBP in front of their big “RBI Guys”. Seriously, with Teix, ARod, etc … do the NYY really need Grandy to go for 35-40 HR?
From what I gather, he’ll likely be replacing Damon in the lineup, a guy that hit 30 points higher and 45 points higher OBP, with similar power numbers.
If he is going to be the “Left-Handed Soriano” in the lineup, I would rather see him hit in the lower middle or bottom of the order, not lead-off.
Granderson is not a .300 hitter. He’s a .275-80 guy
I agree that Granderson is a “275-80 guy”. His .249 BA in 2009 was likely not indicative of his true talent, but a weighted mean (Marcel) of his last 3 seasons projects a .275 BA.
However, you did not apply this same thinking on his HR totals, being happy to project of his actual 2009 total of 30, instead of his projection of 26.
Looking at the HR spray charts borrowed from Hit Tracker for your blog article, it does appear to show that Granderson is not a typical power hitter in that he does not routinely hit the ball 400 feet – most of his homers are pulled between right-center and the RF line, traveling between 350 and 400 feet. This is the type of hit placement that could benefit MORE than average from a change in parks.
BTW, the HR team factor for DET left hand batters in 2009 was 0.973 (weighted mean of the parks the Tigers played in). For the Yankees it was 1.192, The Yankee factors times Granderson’s projected (park neutral) HR total of 26 gives an estimate of 31.
There is no reason to use a weighted HR average for Granderson. His ISO away from comerica .232 easily shows 30+ HR power and a move to Yankee stadium exaggerated HRs in general by 21.6%. That number may decline, but there is no reason to expect anything short of a disproportionate amount of exaggerating applying to lefty pull hitters. Even in his AB shortened season, Granderson was on pace for an upper 20′s HR thing. 30-35 jack is very reasonable for Granderson at Yankee Stadium. A lot more of grandersons lazy right field popuups will go yard in 2010
I agree, and you guys have made some good additional comments.
I simply said I’d rather him his “closer” to .300 than try to add 5+ HRs. That is, of course, assuming (even if just for conversation sake) that he gets “power happy”.
It may be very possible for him to just keep his regular swing, and hit 35 HRs and bat somewhere between .270-.280
If he does that, stays healthy, and plays decent defense, this is just an incredible bargain for the NYY. Not so much because the NYY are so smart, but because DET is in such a crappy situation (much of which is their own doing).
Am I the only one that think the Yankees are going out on a big limb here? Granderson’s stats have been slipping since his “Breakout”(and the more I look, I say breakout in the Mark Teahen sense) season in 07, a season supported by a ridiculous babip.
It seems as the years go on hes become more and more a “power” guy, content to put the ball in the air and hope it hits a gap or goes over the wall, while meanwhile his average and OBP drop.
Even scarier is that as he tries to put the ball in the air his ISO is dropping from .250 to .213 to .205.
If we assume his average regresses to the mean that makes him something like a .280/.360/480, which when combined with his current defense makes him about a ~4 win player.
Now I’m not saying that that isn’t valuable, but if you are a Yankees fan do you give up 3 players with a lot of club control, one of whom (Jackson) could likely be worth 3/4 of grandersons value next year (162 games in CF is worth ~25 runs, + 2.5 adjustment for being in center gives you +28 runs or ~3 wins) just by being an average player?
I don’t think “control” over Kennedy and Coke is that big of a deal. Coke is a 27-year old left specialist, which makes him a dime a dozen. Kennedy, meanwhile, has had very good minor league numbers, but he should. He comes from a big time college program and has been a relatively older player at every level of the minors. Jackson is the one prospect who probably gave the Yankees pause, but his development has only been gradual. When you consider that the Yankees weren’t seriously considering him for a prominent role on this year’s team, I think it tells you how they viewed his progress. Getting a player like Granderson, who is under control for three years at a reasonable AAV, makes all the sense in the world.
As for Jackson stepping in the majors and immediately becoming a league average hitter, well, I think that’s kind of wishful thinking. I think we’d all agree that Adam Jones has more talent and potential than A-Jax, and it took him parts of 3 seasons to accomplish that task (anecdote disclaimer: one example not meant to serve as definitive evidence of all players’ performance).
and the more I look, I say breakout in the Mark Teahen sense
Which sense is that? The sense that he provided two and a half more wins than Teahan has in his entire career?
The sense that he had one huge year of spectacular offense and defense and has declined and shown little indication of being able to do that again.
Yeah, what Will says. What rookie who hit 4 homers in AAA should be expected to be league average his first year in the bigs? Even if it happened, neither Detroit nor the Yankees are expecting that this year, or for 2011 for that matter.
“If we assume his average regresses to the mean that makes him something like a .280/.360/480, which when combined with his current defense makes him about a ~4 win player.”
this is going out on a limb? that’s a pretty strong limb.
But thats assuming he regresses…and that he doesn’t get injured…and that he doesn’t perform WORSE than he did last year(like someone said, what happens if he gets enamored of that short porch and hits 35 HRs…with a .220 AVG?)
Its also assuming that Kennedy doesnt break out, that jackson doesn’t break out (not that jackson really has to break out, from what I understand he is likely an above average CF, so if he was -10 batting and + 10 fielding…thats still about a ~3 win player)
So essentially the yankees paid 3 prospects and about $25 million for 3 total WAR over the next 3 years. Thats a prospect and ~$9 million PER WIN.
Another thing to consider is whether there were better options? did the yankees simply go after granderson because of his star power?
They could have gone after Mike Cameron, likely available for less monetarily and no prospects. Cameron put up 4.3 WAR last year…Granderson put up 3.8.
Or they could have gone with Coco Crisp, sure its a gamble assuming hes healthy, but Crisp would likely be >4War if he was.
My point is the yankees gave up too much for a guy who they didn’t really need and a guy who is likely worse than several other available alternatives.
I just don’t see how this is a good trade unless you like “Star Power”
I like how Royalplug just turned Granderson into a 1 WAR per year player, and somehow we’re supposed to read the rest of his comment.
Um do you have something to change what i said? do you disagree with my analysis? Then back it up. Don’t just say, well I disagree, thusfore you’re wrong.
And if you are going to criticize, then please do so correctly.
I specifically stated that Granderson was likely worth 4 WAR…I also specifically stated that the yankees have a FREE player under control for the next 3 years that would be basically worth 3 WAR.
Thus by trading for Granderson the Yankees added 1 WAR a year that they did not have. I’m just saying that to aquire that extra WAR, the yankees paid too much.
Now please if you disagree with that(either because you think Granderson is better than that, or if Jackson would be below average all around, or if you have some REAL problem with what I said, then say it and stop being an idiot
Royalpug you were doing great there right up to the last word. Then you undid it all with an ad hominem. I know it’s hard to resist temptation, but we should all try to be better than our critics, not worse (he said we shouldn’t take you seriously, but didn’t actually descend into name-calling — and indeed, it is hard to take seriously someone who does). It’s sad to see a good argument ruined.
OK, here, Royalplug, why don’t I just tear your statements down 1 by 1 for the heck of it?:
1. “But thats assuming he regresses…and that he doesn’t get injured…and that he doesn’t perform WORSE than he did last year(like someone said, what happens if he gets enamored of that short porch and hits 35 HRs…with a .220 AVG?)”
Injured – Any player can get injured. Granderson has not shown himself to be especially brittle. Neither have the others in this deal. You can’t use Granderson as an injury risk against him in analyzing the deal. He’s not Erik Bedard. Austin Jackson could get hit by a car tomorrow. Does that mean the Tigers are dumb?
Performing worse – Who’s more likely to perform worse?
-A rookie, moving up from AAA to a new ballpark that’s not hitter friendly, who hit 4 homer runs last year. Total. This guy has no shot of sniffing the Yankees starting lineup next year, and you’re predicting 3 WAR? Gimme a break. Melky Cabrera had 1.6 WAR in 2009, and you’re predicting 3 WAR in 2010 for Jackson? Pshaw.
-A minor league pitcher recovering from aneurysm surgery who’s never had success in the bigs and whose fastball averages below 90.
-A 29 year old all star who had a slightly subpar year for himself in 2009, moving from one of the worst hitters parks in baseball to one of the better for a lefty, and moving to a studly lineup where he’s not depended on to make everything happen.
The only guy of these three with a track record is Granderson. He’s the one that MUST be most trusted. The others are a crap shoot. You’re predicting the worst for Granderson and better than the best for these guys.
“Its also assuming that Kennedy doesnt break out, that jackson doesn’t break out (not that jackson really has to break out, from what I understand he is likely an above average CF, so if he was -10 batting and + 10 fielding…thats still about a ~3 win player)”
From what you understand? Really? Well, take a look at all the previous rookie center fielders for the last 50 years and tell me how may contribute 3 WAR? I’m not going to bother looking. You do it. Ridiculous statement.
Of course it’s assuming Kennedy doesn’t break out. Break out from what? His ceiling is a #3 starter. You expect that to happen in his first full season?
“They could have gone after Mike Cameron…”
Mike Cameron is a free agent. His salary will be much higher next year than Granderson’s. If they got Cameron, guess where Jackson would be? In AAA, adding 0 value. Now they have the money, and they have Granderson. They can use that money to sign Damon or whoever.
“So essentially the yankees paid 3 prospects and about $25 million for 3 total WAR over the next 3 years. Thats a prospect and ~$9 million PER WIN.”
They paid $8 million per year for Granderson. Which, if you haven’t noticed, is a bargain for an above average center fielder.. You wrote this as if the Yankees threw away $25 million yesterday, as opposed to over the next three years. Whoever else plays center has to get paid to you know.
“Crisp would likely be >4War if he was”
So Crisp, who in his last 5 years has gone over 120 games once and is currently recovering from a torn labrum which ended his season, is a safer risk than Granderson? You’re talking about the Yankees’ starting center fielder. I don’t even think the Royals want to have to depend on Crisp at this point.
Dude, you are putting rose colored glasses for every guy you bring up and painting the worst possible scenario for Granderson.
You would have been better off just leaving my original statement alone. Your post was moronic.
Was somebody passing around the wacky red when saying the Yankees are going out on a limb to pickup Grandy? Are you kidding me?
A close to elite player in his prime with reasonable finances for the next four years for an avg/speed guy with NO POWER, a pitching prospect who would be at best a #4 in the AL East ( he does project higher now in the NL), and a middle reliever that you can pickup anywhere.
I know some of you are Austin Jackson/Ian Kennedy fans but lets be real.
And now you can tell Blubbering Boras to go kiss himself when he tries to sell his throw-like-a-girl, cant throw anyone out, love that jetstream in Yankee Stadium client. No thanks.