Table of Contents
Here’s the table of csontents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
Featured Game: St. Louis at New York NL, 16:10 ET
A Question Someone Might Ask
A question someone might ask ahead of this game — for rhetorical purposes, say — is this: “What’s more surprising: that the Cardinals are in second place in their division, or that the Mets are in second place in theirs?”
Regarding the Intent of Such a Question
The intent of such a question likely would be to illustrate how the Cardinals’ record (27-25, 2.5 games behind the Reds) is worse than one would expect (given their run scoring and prevention so far) and how the Mets’ record (29-23, 1.0 games behind the Nationals) is better (according to the same criteria).
An Actual Possible Answer
Using each team’s respective WAR record — that is, a theoretical record based on the wins above replacement each club has amassed at the team level — it’s possible to provide something like an actual answer to that question.
The NL East by WAR Record
Here, for example, is the NL East by WAR record (through play yesterday):
|Place||Team||WAR W||WAR L||WAR%|
The NL Central by WAR Record
And here’s the NL Central by WAR (also through play yesterday):
|Place||Team||WAR W||WAR L||WAR%|
The irrefutable conclusion, based on the above, is that the Cardinals, actually, are the more surprising second-place team. While ca. 6.5 WAR wins separate them from the next best NL Central team, only about 1.5 or 2.0 WAR wins separate the Mets from the Phillies.
A More Refutable Conclusion
Decidedly more refutable than the above would be the conclusion that the author has utilized anything resembling “sense” in the composition of this missive.
One Other Notable Game
Atlanta at Washington | 16:05 ET
Stephen Strasburg (58.0 IP, 72 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR), whose start was rained out last night, starts for the Nationals. Additionally: provided this game is played, Atlanta’s newly promoted shortstop prospect Andrelton Simmons (who takes newly demoted shortstop Tyler Pastornicky‘s spot on the 25-man roster) is expected to make his major-league debut.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Either Atlanta or Washington Radio.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.3.
Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.
|Felix Doubront||BOS||7||4||6||6||2||TOR||Kyle Drabek||13:07|
|Brandon McCarthy||OAK||4||2||3||6||5||KC||Luke Hochevar||14:10|
|Brandon Beachy||ATL||5||7||8||5||10||WAS||Stephen Strasburg||16:05|
|Ricky Nolasco||MIA||3||4||7||4||9||PHI||Cole Hamels||16:05|
|Brian Matusz||BAL||3||5||5||5||3||TB||Jeremy Hellickson||16:10|
|Aaron Harang||LAN||4||5||5||9||6||COL||Juan Nicasio||16:10|
|Hector Noesi||SEA||3||5||3||6||4||CHA||Gavin Floyd||16:10|
|Lance Lynn||STL||8||10||9||1||10||NYN||R.A. Dickey||16:10|
|Erik Bedard||PIT||5||1||4||5||5||MIL||Shaun Marcum||19:10|
|Daniel Hudson||AZ||6||4||4||5||4||SD||Edinson Volquez||19:15|
|Matt Garza||CHN||7||4||6||5||6||SF||Matt Cain||19:15|
|Mat Latos||CIN||5||3||5||6||5||HOU||Wandy Rodriguez||19:15|
|P.J. Walters||MIN||4||2||5||4||7||CLE||Josh Tomlin||19:15|
|Hiroki Kuroda||NYA||2||5||5||5||6||DET||Rick Porcello||19:15|
|Yu Darvish||TEX||6||10||5||3||4||LAA||C.J. Wilson||22:05|