Daily Notes: Baseball in the Palm of Your Hand, Metaphorically

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Florida State League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Florida State League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• Out-performing the rest of the FSL at the moment is Toronto infield prospect Andrew Burns. An 11th-round pick in 2011 by the Blue Jays out of the University of Arizona, Burns has posted an impressive 13:6 walk-to-strikeout ratio, while also hitting two home runs, for Dunedin. The plate-discipline figures represent a marked improvement over his previously established levels. While little digital ink has been spilled with regard to Burns, John Sickels did note in his top-20 prospect list for Toronto that “[i]f you want a sleeper, keep an eye on infielder Andy Burns, who showed a potent power/speed combo in Low-A before getting injured in July. He’s under the radar but he’s got tools and some skills to go with them.”

• Minnesota’s Miguel Sano is generally regarded as possessing plus-plus power and, so far this season, he’s demonstrating plus-plus power, having posted a raw home-run rate (8.5%) about six times the FSL average. His strikeout rate and defensive limitations remain the primary variables with regard to his success in the majors. The former remains unchanged. With regard to the latter, the author has no ideas.

• No pitcher has demonstrated better control of the strike zone so far in the FSL than Tampa Bay left-handed prospect Ryan Carpenter. A seventh-round pick by the club out of Gonzaga in 2011, Carpenter doesn’t necessarily have the most predictable college profile, exhibiting both great size (6-foot-5, 225) and above-average velocity (touching 95 mph), although the latter has fluctuated, according to Robbie Knopf.

SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A Florida State League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 10) / Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the High-A Florida State League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday morning.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the High-A Florida State League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Florida State League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Andrew Burns Blue Jays (A+) 22 85 2 13 6 1.7% 11.0% 12.6% 127
Miguel Sano Twins (A+) 20 82 7 7 20 3.4% 8.2% 22.3% 119
Peter Mooney Blue Jays (A+) 22 58 0 12 5 1.1% 11.6% 15.5% 117
Zeke Devoss Cubs (A+) 22 88 2 16 18 1.7% 12.4% 20.2% 116
Alejandro Segovia Rays (A+) 23 63 4 4 9 2.5% 7.4% 17.5% 116
Stephen Piscotty Cardinals (A+) 22 47 2 4 2 1.9% 8.0% 14.9% 116
Michael Gonzales Twins (A+) 25 77 4 10 17 2.4% 9.8% 21.0% 115
Gregory Polanco Pirates (A+) 21 78 1 7 6 1.4% 8.3% 13.5% 113
Kyle Knudson Twins (A+) 25 43 2 4 4 1.9% 8.2% 16.8% 113
Carlos Alonso Phillies (A+) 25 71 1 12 12 1.4% 11.1% 18.4% 112

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the High-A Florida State League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Andrew Burns Blue Jays (A+) 22 85 2 13 6 1.7% 11.0% 12.6% 127
Miguel Sano Twins (A+) 20 82 7 7 20 3.4% 8.2% 22.3% 119
Peter Mooney Blue Jays (A+) 22 58 0 12 5 1.1% 11.6% 15.5% 117
Zeke Devoss Cubs (A+) 22 88 2 16 18 1.7% 12.4% 20.2% 116
Stephen Piscotty Cardinals (A+) 22 47 2 4 2 1.9% 8.0% 14.9% 116
Gregory Polanco Pirates (A+) 21 78 1 7 6 1.4% 8.3% 13.5% 113
Gary Sanchez Yankees (A+) 20 78 3 8 14 2.0% 8.8% 18.8% 112
Jorge Soler Cubs (A+) 21 53 2 7 9 1.8% 9.3% 18.8% 111
Ryan Rieger Marlins (A+) 22 78 2 5 9 1.7% 7.3% 15.5% 110
Mason Williams Yankees (A+) 21 87 0 15 15 1.0% 12.0% 18.3% 110

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the High-A Florida State League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Florida State League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Ryan Carpenter Rays (A+) 22 4 3 19.0 72 24 2 26.3% 7.2% 77
Tony Davis Blue Jays (A+) 25 7 0 10.0 39 16 3 25.3% 7.9% 82
Nick Wittgren Marlins (A+) 22 8 0 10.1 35 14 0 24.5% 7.4% 83
Frank Del Valle Cubs (A+) 23 5 0 8.2 37 16 7 25.6% 8.6% 84
Austin Hubbard Rays (A+) 25 7 0 10.2 45 16 3 24.5% 7.8% 84
Shane Greene Yankees (A+) 24 4 4 23.1 95 25 4 23.9% 7.2% 85
Colin Kleven Phillies (A+) 22 3 3 11.1 61 19 5 24.4% 7.9% 85
Dustin Antolin Blue Jays (A+) 23 6 0 7.2 28 12 1 24.1% 7.7% 85
Fred Lewis Yankees (A+) 26 5 0 9.1 39 14 2 24.0% 7.7% 86
Michael O’Brien Yankees (A+) 23 4 4 17.2 80 22 7 23.9% 8.0% 87

SCOUT Leaderboard: Florida State League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the High-A Florida State League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Ryan Carpenter Rays (A+) 22 4 3 19.0 72 24 2 26.3% 7.2% 77
Shane Greene Yankees (A+) 24 4 4 23.1 95 25 4 23.9% 7.2% 85
Colin Kleven Phillies (A+) 22 3 3 11.1 61 19 5 24.4% 7.9% 85
Michael O’Brien Yankees (A+) 23 4 4 17.2 80 22 7 23.9% 8.0% 87
Nick Hernandez Phillies (A+) 24 3 3 17.0 69 19 6 23.4% 8.0% 89
Ryan Searle Cubs (A+) 24 4 2 17.0 75 19 3 22.6% 7.4% 89
Francisco Liriano Pirates (A+) 29 1 1 3.0 9 6 0 22.6% 7.8% 91
Luis Mateo Mets (A+) 23 1 1 6.2 24 9 2 22.6% 7.9% 91
Nicholas Kingham Pirates (A+) 21 4 4 20.2 85 20 4 21.9% 7.4% 92
Jose Urena Marlins (A+) 21 4 3 18.2 70 17 3 21.9% 7.4% 92

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Seattle at Houston | 14:10 ET
It’s mostly absurd to watch this game — especially on such a day as when Matt Harvey and Jeff Samardzija and Stephen Strasburg are pitching. That said, it’s Robbie Grossman‘s major-league debut. Grossman, who dominated the Arizona Fall League in 2011 before suffering a broken hamate, has been absent from the tops of prospect lists, but has also continued to get on base frequently. He appears to be batting leadoff for the Astros today.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television

Arizona at San Francisco | 15:45 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Shall I compare Jon Miller’s voice to a summer’s day? Yes, that seems reasonable. Also acceptable: butter, butterscotch, and just actual scotch (provided it’s from Islay and has been aged sufficiently).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio

Texas at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
In addition to Yu Darvish and the many splendors for which he’s likely to be responsible, this game also features the first ever major-league start for left-hander Michael Roth. Roth, while lacking “stuff” proper, was the metronome of the South Carolina’s recent NCAA championship teams. The left-hander has made four appearances and pitched 5.0 innings this season in relief, recording a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while so doing and inducing four grounders on 10 total batted-balls.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: five games are omitted from the following table (because no odds were available for them on Wednesday morning): Toronto at Baltimore (12:35 ET, Brandon Morrow vs. Josh Stinson), Cleveland at Chicago AL (14:10 ET, Zach McAllister vs. Jose Quintana), Atlanta at Colorado (15:10 ET, Tim Hudson vs. Tyler Chatwood), Kansas City at Detroit (19:08 ET, Wade Davis vs. Max Scherzer), and Texas at Los Angeles AL (22:05 ET, Yu Darvish vs. Michael Roth).***

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win%
12:35 Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 26.2 71 0.8 | 2.55 38.5%
ET Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 26.1 69 0.7 | 1.60 61.5%
|
13:05 St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia 22.1 91 0.2 | 2.35 41.8%
ET Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg 24.1 102 0.2 | 1.69 58.2%
|
15:45 Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy 24.2 106 0.3 | 2.40 40.9%
ET San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner 26.1 84 0.4 | 1.66 59.1%
|
19:05 Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez 16.0 99 0.5 | 2.14 45.9%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay 22.1 104 -0.2 | 1.81 54.1%
|
19:10 Los Angeles Dodgers Ted Lilly N/A N/A N/A | 2.41 40.7%
ET New York Mets Matt Harvey 29.0 84 1.0 | 1.65 59.3%
|
22:10 Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada 24.0 96 0.0 | 1.86 52.6%
ET San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 18.1 130 -0.1 | 2.07 47.4%
|
14:10 Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders 22.0 120 0.1 | 1.89 52.0%
ET Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 21.2 115 -0.4 | 2.04 48.0%
|
16:05 Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson 19.2 92 0.0 | 2.51 39.1%
ET Boston Red Sox Jon Lester 26.0 72 1.1 | 1.61 60.9%
|
19:10 New York Yankees Andy Pettitte 22.1 103 0.4 | 2.12 46.3%
ET Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb 21.1 91 0.4 | 1.83 53.7%



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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


7 Responses to “Daily Notes: Baseball in the Palm of Your Hand, Metaphorically”

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  1. Ways for Carson to Use His BBWAA Credentials says:

    - ask Peter Mooney if he enjoys mooning
    - ask Stephen Piscotty if he enjoys biscotti
    - ask Jose Urena if he enjoys urine

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Excellent, may I play too?

      -ask Mat Latos if he’s Latos intolerant?
      -ask Madinson if he’s garnered much bums since making it to the bigs?
      -ask Alex Cobb what’s his favorite salad?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Miketron says:

    I was saying Boo-urns

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. All Balls No Brains says:

    Anyone know the knock on Alejandro Segovia. Dude appears to be able to drive the ball pretty decently but is moving up the system as slow as possible. What gives?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. I was unhappy to read “…in the Palm of Your Hand, Metaphorically”, it transported me, unwillingly, violently, to Jonathan Edwards metaphorically placing Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God. He plays that metaphor not for joyful baseball, but to terrorize we poor bastards– that metaphorical hand holds you over snapping, gaping serpents; the hand restrains hungry devils from tearing you to bits; the hand shelters you from dreadful storms and rough wind (“..otherwise it would come with fury, and your destruction would come like a whirlwind, and you would be like the chaff on the summer threshing floor”); the hand is a flood-gate, holding back the fiery floods of the fierceness and wrath (even “if your strength were ten thousand times greater than it is, yea, ten thousand times greater than the strength of the stoutest, sturdiest devil in hell, it would be nothing to withstand or endure it.”) Please, do not ever use a hand metaphor again. Please.

    The God that holds you over the pit of hell, much as one holds a spider, or some loathsome insect over the fire, abhors you, and is dreadfully provoked: his wrath towards you burns like fire; he looks upon you as worthy of nothing else, but to be cast into the fire; he is of purer eyes than to bear to have you in his sight; you are ten thousand times more abominable in his eyes, than the most hateful venomous serpent is in ours. You have offended him infinitely more than ever a stubborn rebel did his prince; and yet it is nothing but his hand that holds you from falling into the fire every moment. It is to be ascribed to nothing else, that you did not go to hell the last night; that you was suffered to awake again in this world, after you closed your eyes to sleep. And there is no other reason to be given, why you have not dropped into hell since you arose in the morning, but that God’s hand has held you up. There is no other reason to be given why you have not gone to hell.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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