Daily Notes: Baseball Information for the Reader’s Enjoyment

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable Pacific Coast League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable Pacific Coast League Peformances
The leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards.

• On Wednesday, the author sang the body Wilmer Flores (currently fifth on the prospect-age batting leaderboard below) as part of the second installment of a weekly column called The Fringe Five. In summary: he (i.e. Flores) is only 21 and controls the hell out of the strike zone.

• Kanasas City left-hander Will Smith sits atop the SCOUT pitching leaderboard, having posted a 31:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 22.0 innings. Smith, 23, actually pitched about 90 innings for the Royals last season — all in a starting capacity — and was fair, but not special. To wit: 14.9% K, 8.3% BB, 42.0% GB, 4.69 SIERA, 112 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR. There don’t appear to be any reports indicating what, if anything, Smith is doing differently this season.

• The Yusmeiro Petit who’s currently second on the pitching leaderboard below is the same Yusmeiro Petit who both (a) compiled a 429:75 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 2.76 ERA in 346.0 minor-league innings through age-20, but then (b) failed to demonstrate that sort of effectiveness at Triple-A or in the majors, largely due to a fastball that sits at 87-88 and an extreme fly-ball approach. In any case, he’s having his best Triple-A season to date. Also, fact: he’s younger than Tim Lincecum.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 25) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22) / High-A California League (April 23) / High-A Florida State League (April 24).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard?” a reader might reasonably ask. In brief, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail. (A longer explanation is available here.)

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. (Note: statistics current as of Wednesday night.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Stephen Vogt Athletics (AAA) 28 66 5 7 5 3.4% 9.9% 14.5% 126
Scott Van Slyke Dodgers (AAA) 26 82 7 10 17 3.9% 10.6% 20.3% 123
Jamie Romak Cardinals (AAA) 27 64 4 11 12 3.0% 12.0% 19.4% 119
Marc Krauss Astros (AAA) 25 68 4 9 10 3.0% 10.8% 17.5% 119
Luke Montz Athletics (AAA) 29 56 4 11 13 3.1% 12.4% 21.1% 117
Charlie Blackmon Rockies (AAA) 27 64 1 10 5 2.0% 11.5% 14.7% 115
Tyler Bortnick Diamondbacks (AAA) 25 47 1 10 5 2.2% 12.3% 17.0% 114
Shane Peterson Athletics (AAA) 25 80 0 19 13 1.6% 15.2% 17.9% 114
Brett Hayes Royals (AAA) 29 37 4 2 5 3.2% 8.8% 18.3% 114
Michael Choice Athletics (AAA) 23 91 4 12 18 2.8% 11.2% 19.8% 113

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Michael Choice Athletics (AAA) 23 91 4 12 18 2.8% 11.2% 19.8% 113
Travis D’Arnaud Mets (AAA) 24 49 1 12 8 2.1% 13.2% 18.7% 113
Nick Franklin Mariners (AAA) 22 50 2 8 7 2.5% 11.2% 17.9% 112
Didi Gregorius Diamondbacks (AAA) 23 33 2 2 1 2.6% 9.0% 16.2% 111
Wilmer Flores Mets (AAA) 21 80 1 8 7 1.9% 9.7% 13.9% 109
Che-Hsuan Lin Astros (AAA) 24 62 0 11 7 1.7% 12.1% 16.3% 109
Hunter Morris Brewers (AAA) 24 70 4 7 15 3.0% 9.7% 20.6% 109
Mike Zunino Mariners (AAA) 22 65 5 7 18 3.4% 10.0% 23.3% 109
Nolan Arenado Rockies (AAA) 22 66 3 4 9 2.7% 8.4% 17.1% 108
Jurickson Profar Rangers (AAA) 20 66 2 11 14 2.4% 11.9% 20.5% 108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Will Smith Royals (AAA) 23 4 4 22.0 89 31 6 28.7% 9.1% 76
Yusmeiro Petit Giants (AAA) 28 4 4 21.2 98 31 5 27.6% 8.8% 79
Neal Cotts Rangers (AAA) 33 7 0 9.1 37 19 5 27.6% 9.8% 81
Blaine Boyer Royals (AAA) 31 6 0 7.0 28 14 0 25.5% 9.1% 85
Danny Farquhar Mariners (AAA) 26 7 0 10.1 45 17 2 25.2% 9.1% 85
Jarred Cosart Astros (AAA) 23 4 3 17.2 67 21 5 25.0% 9.3% 86
Drew Pomeranz Rockies (AAA) 24 3 3 16.1 68 21 5 24.9% 9.3% 87
Brian Moran Mariners (AAA) 24 8 0 10.0 44 16 2 24.7% 9.2% 87
Cory Burns Rangers (AAA) 25 7 0 7.2 29 13 1 24.7% 9.2% 87
Will Harris Diamondbacks (AAA) 28 8 0 7.2 36 15 4 25.1% 9.7% 87

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Will Smith Royals (AAA) 23 4 4 22.0 89 31 6 28.7% 9.1% 76
Yusmeiro Petit Giants (AAA) 28 4 4 21.2 98 31 5 27.6% 8.8% 79
Jarred Cosart Astros (AAA) 23 4 3 17.2 67 21 5 25.0% 9.3% 86
Drew Pomeranz Rockies (AAA) 24 3 3 16.1 68 21 5 24.9% 9.3% 87
Danny Hultzen Mariners (AAA) 23 4 4 22.2 95 25 6 23.9% 9.0% 88
Matt Magill Dodgers (AAA) 23 4 4 19.0 78 23 14 24.9% 10.8% 90
Josh Lindblom Rangers (AAA) 26 4 3 17.0 66 18 4 23.1% 9.1% 91
Dan Straily Athletics (AAA) 24 3 3 18.2 75 20 6 23.3% 9.4% 91
Justin Thomas Athletics (AAA) 29 4 4 21.2 94 23 6 22.7% 9.0% 91
Tyler Chatwood Rockies (AAA) 23 3 3 14.2 65 17 4 22.6% 9.2% 92

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Houston at Boston | 19:10 ET
Not only does this game offer the opportunity to monitor Ryan Dempster and what could possibly be responsible for his considerable leaps both in strikeout (34.0%) and swinging-strike (14.9%) rate, but it also — and more importantly, one must say — facilitates unmitigated Robbie Grossman, who’s likely to bat leadoff and play center field. The Boston camera is also excellent.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Television*

*Note: both Bill Brown and Jim Deshaies, responsible for Houston’s excellent broadcast ratings a year-plus ago, have departed from the Astros television broadcast. The author will likely be facilitating a new round of broadcast rankings in the coming months.

Tampa Bay at Chicago NL | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
For all his excellent seasons in San Diego, right-hander Jake Peavy has never posted a park-adjusted xFIP as low as the one he’s recorded through his first four starts and 25.1 innings this season. “But it’s only four starts and 25.1 innings, idiot,” perhaps a reader is saying or thinking or even already beginning to write in a comment. To which sentiment the author responds: “Pointing out my weaknesses is like shooting fish in a barrel that has been drained of water and also the barrel split open. Now there are just fish on the ground amidst the scraps of a now-broken barrel. Yeah, you can shoot those fish. But what satisfaction will you derive from it? They’re about to die, anyway.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio

San Francisco at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Andrew Cashner makes his second start of the season for the Padres. He was effing delightful in his first start — last weekend, also against the Giants — sitting at 95 mph with his fastball. He faces Tim Lincecum.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win%
19:05 Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 25.0 85 0.4 | 2.17 45.2%
ET Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann 27.0 99 0.4 | 1.79 54.8%
|
19:10 Chicago Cubs Scott Feldman 14.0 144 -0.1 | 1.89 52.0%
ET Miami Marlins Wade LeBlanc 18.2 121 0.3 | 2.04 48.0%
|
19:10 Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 24.2 93 0.3 | 2.02 48.6%
ET New York Mets Dillon Gee 19.2 133 -0.2 | 1.91 51.4%
|
20:15 Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 11.1 130 -0.2 | 2.71 36.2%
ET St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn 22.0 94 0.3 | 1.54 63.8%
|
21:40 Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio 20.1 142 -0.1 | 2.11 46.5%
ET Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy 21.2 110 0.3 | 1.83 53.5%
|
22:10 Milwaukee Brewers Hiram Burgos 5.0 121 0.1 | 2.36 41.6%
ET Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett 25.0 102 -0.2 | 1.68 58.4%
|
22:10 San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum 22.2 111 0.0 | 1.86 52.6%
ET San Diego Padres Andrew Cashner 13.1 104 -0.1 | 2.07 47.4%
|
19:05 Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson 19.2 107 0.1 | 2.05 47.8%
ET New York Yankees Ivan Nova 14.2 93 0.4 | 1.88 52.2%
|
19:10 Houston Astros Erik Bedard 11.2 105 0.1 | 3.19 30.8%
ET Boston Red Sox Ryan Dempster 24.0 73 0.4 | 1.42 69.2%
|
20:10 Texas Rangers Justin Grimm 10.0 78 0.2 | 1.86 52.9%
ET Minnesota Twins Scott Diamond 10.1 101 0.1 | 2.08 47.1%
|
20:10 Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez 24.2 91 0.3 | 2.29 42.8%
ET Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 25.1 62 0.6 | 1.71 57.2%
|
20:10 Cleveland Indians Scott Kazmir 3.1 155 -0.2 | 2.51 39.1%
ET Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana 29.0 85 0.5 | 1.61 60.9%
|
22:05 Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen 24.0 129 0.4 | 2.16 45.4%
ET Oakland Athletics Tommy Milone 25.1 101 0.4 | 1.79 54.6%
|
22:10 LAA Angels C.J. Wilson 24.0 122 -0.1 | 1.68 58.5%
ET Seattle Mariners Aaron Harang 9.2 106 -0.2 | 2.36 41.5%
|
19:05 Atlanta Braves Paul Maholm 26.1 90 0.6 | 2.15 45.6%
ET Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez 25.2 87 1.0 | 1.80 54.4%



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman

“Tampa Bay at Chicago NL”

Not so, Horatio!

wpDiscuz