Daily Notes: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Introduction
In June of 2010, in response to a challenge issued by smasher of injustices Rob Neyer, the present author submitted to the public the first iteration of a metric called — for reasons that need little elaboration — a metric called NERD. The purpose of NERD: to represent in a single number the likely aesthetic value of a player or team or game to the sabermetrically inclined. Over the last three years, there have been modifications to how NERD is calculated — the variables included in the formula, for example, and how heavily each of those variables is weighted — but the framework remains more or less the same.

What follows, below, are the complete and updated Pitcher NERD scores for the 196 pitchers with at least 20 innings recorded this season as a starter.

Sexy Embedded Table: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Here’s a sexy embedded table including every starter’s NERD score, by the criteria outlined above. For each pitcher is listed both his overall NERD score and also his z-score (i.e. standard deviations from the mean) in each of NERD’s variables. Note that SwStrk is swinging-strike rate; Strk is overall strike rate; Velo is average fastball velocity (by PITCHf/x), where faster than average is better, but slower isn’t penalized; Age is age, in years, where younger than average is better, but older isn’t penalized; Pace is time, in seconds, between pitches; Luck actually isn’t a z-score, but rather half the difference between ERA and xFIP, where 1.0 is the highest assessed value and below 0.0 isn’t penalized; and, finally, KN is rate of knuckleballs thrown times 5.0.

Sexy Link to a Web Page: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to see a complete table of Pitcher NERD scores on a single page.

Sexy Link to an Excel File: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to download an Excel file of every starting pitcher’s NERD score.

Notes
• Mets right-hander Matt Harvey is more than two standard deviations above the starting-pitcher mean in three categories: xFIP (2.60), swinging-strike rate (13.1%), and average fastball velocity (95.7 mph).

• Arizona right-hander Randall Delgado entered his Sunday start among those pitcher with a perfect 10 NERD. Despite conceding no runs over 5.2 innings (box), his NERD score decreased to 9 — because of a 5.70 single-game xFIP and 58.4% strike rate, among other reasons.

• The lowest NERD score for any pitcher with an above-average xFIP is Colorado’s Jorge de la Rosa. The left-hander has a strike rate (61.2%) nearly a standard deviation below league average and is also among the league’s slowest workers (24.7 seconds between pitches).

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Los Angeles NL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Hyun-Jin Ryu (116.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces Josh Johnson (66.1 IP, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). Of note regarding the Dodgers: at one point around 10 games out of first place in the NL West, they’re now projected to win that same division.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio, Maybe.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.9.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Ivan Nova NYA 9 3 8 3 10 TEX Yu Darvish 19:05
Charlie Morton PIT 4 7 5 2 6 WAS Dan Haren 19:05
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN 6 3 6 6 8 TOR Josh Johnson 19:07
Julio Teheran ATL 7 8 6 6 5 NYN Dillon Gee 19:10
Matt Moore TB 5 10 7 8 7 BOS Bran. Workman* 19:10
Scott Feldman BAL 4 8 5 7 5 KC Wade Davis 20:10
Max Scherzer DET 10 7 9 1 10 CHA Chris Sale 20:10
Tommy Milone OAK 4 6 5 3 6 HOU Dallas Keuchel 20:10
Andrew Cashner SD 6 6 5 4 5 MIL T. Gorzelanny* 20:10
Tom Koehler MIA 5 1 5 8 4 COL D. Pomeranz* 20:40
Matt Garza CHN 5 5 5 2 7 AZ Tyler Skaggs 21:40
Samuel Deduno MIN 3 2 5 7 7 LAA Joe Blanton 22:05
Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 4 7 5 6 5 SEA Aaron Harang 22:10
Bronson Arroyo CIN 4 2 6 6 8 SF Tim Lincecum 22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



Print This Post



Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
2 years 10 months ago

Reader Invitation

The Corey Kluber Society honours a ’10’ starting pitcher of interest even more unusual than the other ’10’ pitchers. It is remarkable that FanGraphs does not have, for example, a Matt Harvey Society or Jose Fernandez Society.

On the assumption that one ’10’ can thus plausibly be considered, in fact, an ’11’:

Which of the many ‘0’ pitchers could be considered a ‘-1’? In other words, if Daily Notes readership established a Society dedicated to watching the least interesting pitching imaginable, which of the ‘0’ pitchers would be so (dis)honoured?

Make your nomination, and defend it.

pudieron89
Guest
2 years 10 months ago

lol it’s funny because you talk like the author which is funny cause it’s so quirky! lol

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
2 years 10 months ago

Regarding Whether the Bespectacled Present Author Was, That Time, Attempting Consciously to Talk Like Carson Cistulli

Not that time I wasn’t.

rusty
Guest
rusty
2 years 10 months ago

With all due respect to the players in question (including my nominee, who continues to be a much, much better baseball player than anyone I know personally), I nominate Jason Marquis.

He leads the league in walks issued, his rotation slot is secure (when healthy), his elevated HR/FB % means that cringe of bad feeling you get when a fly is hit is justified, and, finally, as a National League pitcher, watching his starts also includes watching him hit. While I am in favor of pitcher-batting in principle, Marquis has neither drawn a walk nor hit a homer (the highlights of pitcher-batting) since 2009, spanning 152 PAs.

juan pierres mustache
Member
Member
2 years 10 months ago

Mike Pelfrey. Justification: You can substitute “Mike Pelfrey” for “boring pitcher” in a sentence and no one will be confused as to what you mean. Example:

Q: Who’s pitching for the Twins today?
A: Who cares? They’re all Mike Pelfreys anyway.

Simon
Guest
Simon
2 years 10 months ago

I second this.

Prospector
Guest
Prospector
2 years 10 months ago

I would call the attention of the Dishonourable Pitching Society (DPS) to the exploits of one Mssr. Brad Peacock – a gentleperson with the wherewithal to combine an atrocious Strk rate (-1.96) with a softball league SwStrk (-1.75) to yield a macabre xFIP (-2.43). On days when the dishonourable Mssr. Peacock takes the mound, the DPS may wish to establish betting odds on which defensive fielder will first decide to lay down for a nap and in which inning said nap might commence (see Pace: -1.82). On the other hand, Mssr. Peacock does possess favorable Velo (0.26) and Age (0.74) scores which a) should prompt a return engagement with the Major League Baseball Astros soon, and b) gives the discerning DPS member a rooting interest in discovering whether Mssr. Peacock might one day ascend to greater heights of mediocrity.

rusty
Guest
rusty
2 years 10 months ago

Have you considered changing from integer-age to a more precise measure? Tango wrote a post about it a couple weeks ago, and this is another one of those areas where it seems relevant. I guess the trade-off would be that the Age factor of NERD changes over the course of a season, but that it’s more accurate regardless of whether the current method uses April 1 age (“season age”) or date-of-birth to update.

Røark
Guest
Røark
2 years 10 months ago

Does age provide value because because we like to look at hot young bodies in motion, or is it a reflection of the correlation between their age and the likely smaller amount of time spent in the league – time that will eventually dull them to us in our minds and cause us to forget them after a new sexy thing shows up?

wpDiscuz