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Daily Notes: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores

Posted By Carson Cistulli On July 22, 2013 @ 10:38 am In Daily Notes | 9 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Introduction
In June of 2010, in response to a challenge issued by smasher of injustices Rob Neyer, the present author submitted to the public the first iteration of a metric called — for reasons that need little elaboration — a metric called NERD. The purpose of NERD: to represent in a single number the likely aesthetic value of a player or team or game to the sabermetrically inclined. Over the last three years, there have been modifications to how NERD is calculated — the variables included in the formula, for example, and how heavily each of those variables is weighted — but the framework remains more or less the same.

What follows, below, are the complete and updated Pitcher NERD scores for the 196 pitchers with at least 20 innings recorded this season as a starter.

Sexy Embedded Table: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Here’s a sexy embedded table including every starter’s NERD score, by the criteria outlined above. For each pitcher is listed both his overall NERD score and also his z-score (i.e. standard deviations from the mean) in each of NERD’s variables. Note that SwStrk is swinging-strike rate; Strk is overall strike rate; Velo is average fastball velocity (by PITCHf/x), where faster than average is better, but slower isn’t penalized; Age is age, in years, where younger than average is better, but older isn’t penalized; Pace is time, in seconds, between pitches; Luck actually isn’t a z-score, but rather half the difference between ERA and xFIP, where 1.0 is the highest assessed value and below 0.0 isn’t penalized; and, finally, KN is rate of knuckleballs thrown times 5.0.

Sexy Link to a Web Page: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to see a complete table of Pitcher NERD scores on a single page.

Sexy Link to an Excel File: Complete and Updated Pitcher NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to download an Excel file of every starting pitcher’s NERD score.

Notes
• Mets right-hander Matt Harvey is more than two standard deviations above the starting-pitcher mean in three categories: xFIP (2.60), swinging-strike rate (13.1%), and average fastball velocity (95.7 mph).

• Arizona right-hander Randall Delgado entered his Sunday start among those pitcher with a perfect 10 NERD. Despite conceding no runs over 5.2 innings (box), his NERD score decreased to 9 — because of a 5.70 single-game xFIP and 58.4% strike rate, among other reasons.

• The lowest NERD score for any pitcher with an above-average xFIP is Colorado’s Jorge de la Rosa. The left-hander has a strike rate (61.2%) nearly a standard deviation below league average and is also among the league’s slowest workers (24.7 seconds between pitches).

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Los Angeles NL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Hyun-Jin Ryu (116.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces Josh Johnson (66.1 IP, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). Of note regarding the Dodgers: at one point around 10 games out of first place in the NL West, they’re now projected to win that same division.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio, Maybe.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.9.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Ivan Nova NYA 9 3 8 3 10 TEX Yu Darvish 19:05
Charlie Morton PIT 4 7 5 2 6 WAS Dan Haren 19:05
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN 6 3 6 6 8 TOR Josh Johnson 19:07
Julio Teheran ATL 7 8 6 6 5 NYN Dillon Gee 19:10
Matt Moore TB 5 10 7 8 7 BOS Bran. Workman* 19:10
Scott Feldman BAL 4 8 5 7 5 KC Wade Davis 20:10
Max Scherzer DET 10 7 9 1 10 CHA Chris Sale 20:10
Tommy Milone OAK 4 6 5 3 6 HOU Dallas Keuchel 20:10
Andrew Cashner SD 6 6 5 4 5 MIL T. Gorzelanny* 20:10
Tom Koehler MIA 5 1 5 8 4 COL D. Pomeranz* 20:40
Matt Garza CHN 5 5 5 2 7 AZ Tyler Skaggs 21:40
Samuel Deduno MIN 3 2 5 7 7 LAA Joe Blanton 22:05
Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 4 7 5 6 5 SEA Aaron Harang 22:10
Bronson Arroyo CIN 4 2 6 6 8 SF Tim Lincecum 22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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