Daily Notes: Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores
Introduction
In June of 2010, in response to a challenge issued by loud-thundering Rob Neyer, the present author submitted to the public the first iteration of a metric called — for reasons that need little elaboration — a metric called NERD. The purpose of NERD: to represent in a single number the likely aesthetic value of a player or team or game to the sabermetrically inclined. Over the last three years, there have been modifications to how NERD is calculated — the variables included in the formula, for example, and how heavily each of those variables is weighted — but the framework remains more or less the same.

What follows, below, are the complete and updated Team NERD scores for all 30 major-league clubs this season.

Sexy Embedded Table: Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores
Here’s a sexy embedded table including every club’s NERD score, by the criteria outlined above. For each team is listed both their overall NERD score and also z-score (i.e. standard deviations from the mean) for each of NERD’s variables. Note that Bat is park-adjusted batting runs relative to average; HR% is park-adjusted home-run rate; BsR is baserunning runs; BULL is bullpen xFIP; UZR is runs saved defensively, according to Ultimate Zone Rating; PAY is opening-day payroll, where lower than average is better, but above average isn’t penalized; AGE is weighted batter age, in years, where younger than average is better, but older isn’t penalized; and Luck actually isn’t a z-score, but rather the different between WAR wins and actual wins divided by two, where 2.0 is the highest assessed value and below 0.0 isn’t penalized.

Sexy Link to a Web Page: Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to see a complete table of Team NERD scores on a single page.

Sexy Link to an Excel File: Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores
Click this hyperlinked text to download an Excel file of every team’s NERD score.

Notes
• In what could reasonably be classified as a “startling turn of events,” Tampa Bay has been one the league’s very best clubs offensively this season. Not only have they produced the second-most park-adjusted runs among the majors’ 30 teams, but they’ve done so — in part, at least — by hitting considerably more home runs than one has come to expect of the Saint Petersburgers. The Rays have recorded a park-adjusted home-run rate of 3.1%, according to the author’s likely flawed calculations — the sixth-best figure in the majors. Club leaders, so far as overall home runs are concerned, are as follows: Evan Longoria (21), Kelly Johnson (15), and Matt Joyce (14).

• One isn’t surprised to learn that Houston features both (a) the lowest of the league’s opening day payrolls and (b) the youngest weighted average batting age. Perhaps one is more surprised to learn that those poorly compensated and very young hitters have outproduced the Yankees.

• Per WAR, The Detroit Tigers “should” have recorded 68 wins thus far — or, nine more than the club’s real-live total of 59. That nine-win game makes them the league’s unluckiest team, by that measure. The luckiest? Pittsburgh, it appears. The Pirates have won 61 games, even while their WAR totals would suggest something closer to 53 or 54.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Toronto at Oakland | 22:05 ET
Esmil Rogers (84.1 IP, 99 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) faces A.J. Griffin (133.2 IP, 104 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). The former moved into the rotation at around the beginning of June, and appears to have retained his velocity even in longer outings. In July, for example, Rogers has recorded the 10th-highest average fastball velocity among 111 qualifiers, at 94.3 mph. His defense-independent figures during the month have also been entirely acceptable. To wit: 23.2 IP, 17.3% K, 5.5% BB, 50.0% GB, 3.50 xFIP.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio, Perhaps.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.6.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
David Price TB 8 10 7 8 5 BOS Felix Doubront 18:10
Jered Weaver LAA 4 7 5 4 5 TEX Matt Garza 19:05
John Danks CHA 7 2 5 7 3 CLE Zach McAllister 19:05
Jake Westbrook STL 1 4 5 7 9 PIT Fr. Liriano 19:05
Jorge de la Rosa COL 3 7 6 8 8 ATL Bran. Beachy* 19:10
Jeremy Hefner NYN 5 6 5 2 6 MIA Jacob Turner 19:10
Kyle Lohse MIL 5 5 6 4 8 CHN Jeff Samardzija 20:05
Esmil Rogers TOR 5 7 6 6 6 OAK A.J. Griffin 22:05
Mike Leake CIN 5 3 5 6 4 SD S. O’Sullivan* 22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


14 Responses to “Daily Notes: Complete and Updated Team NERD Scores”

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  1. Yuniesky Betancourt says:

    How are the Brewers only a 5? Don’t people have interest in following my quest for the elusive sub-.200 OBP?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. TheTheory says:

    Phillies rate too high. I* think they should be, like, -2 or something.

    *A bitter Phillies fan

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • cass says:

      Phillies fans and Braves/Mets/Nats fans are finally in agreement!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • jruby says:

      Agreed. It’s been worse than unwatchable recently. Like… closer to “disgusting.”

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • bob says:

        theres a point where a team becomes so unwatchable that they become watchable again.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Nickname Damur says:

          Yes. Cleveland Spiders 1899. Owner sold best players to his other club. Something happened with the stadium (sold or lost lease or something, I don’t recollect) and the club was on the road for the last half of the season. Longest winning streak 2. I believe five or so 20+ game losing streaks.

          Vote -1 Vote +1

        • jruby says:

          Like “The Room” or “Biker Zombies From Detroit”? They’re not there yet.

          http://xkcd.com/653/

          Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. MikeS says:

    The less interesting the White Sox get, the higher their NERD score is. They earned that zero they were getting a couple months ago and they continue to earn it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Well-Beered Englishman says:

    Worth pointing out: yesterday Carson’s writing style was compared to both George Saunders and Perd Hapley.

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  5. suicide squeeze says:

    I don’t know how you calculate the final number, but wouldn’t old age be punished? I know you don’t assign negative scores there, but wouldn’t being a 0 while someone else is a 2 inherently “punish” your score, since it appears to be a zero-sum game (I’m assuming that it’s not possible for every team to be a 10 since you’re using z-scores).

    Strangely enough, the team I watch the second-most after the A’s is the Phillies, but really only because of Cliff Lee. Thus, you should probably add a “having Cliff Lee” category, where the Phillies are several standard deviations above the mean. Or at the very least, you should footnote that these rankings aren’t Lee-normalized.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • cass says:

      Starting pitchers are never included in team NERD because starting pitchers have their own separate NERD scores. Team NERD is everything except the starting pitchers. So Cliff Lee has his own NERD which will be factored into the NERD score of the games he pitches.

      I do think that really old guys should start getting bonuses. Age should be based on the absolute value of of years away from 31 or something like that. Cause once a guy hits 40, he’s fun to watch cause it’s amazing he’s still playing.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Antonio Bananas says:

    Broadcast options should factor into the game score. Chi sox/royals is basically unwatchable because of the two teams horrid commentators.

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  7. rusty says:

    Rockies come in 5th… despite negative z-scores for Hitting AND HR%.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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