Daily Notes: Contract Crowdsourcing, Starters (Part 1)

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Contract Crowdsourcing: Starting Pitchers (1 of 3)
2. Reminder Photo: Scott Baker
3. SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters

Contract Crowdsourcing: Starting Pitchers (1 of 3)
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series (which is something that happened on Sunday). FanGraphs is asking readers to estimate the years and average annual dollar values likely to be received by certain notable free agents. We continue today with the first third of this free-agent class’s notable starting pitchers. (Click here for more on the contract crowdsourcing project.)

Other positions: Catchers / First Basemen / Second Basemen / Third Basemen / Shortstops / Corner Outfielders / Center Fielders / Designated Hitters / Right-Handed Relievers / Left-Handed Relievers.

Player Page: Scott Baker

Player Page: Joe Blanton

Player Page: Ryan Dempster

Player Page: Gavin Floyd

Player Page: Zack Greinke

Player Page: Jeremy Guthrie

Player Page: Dan Haren

Reminder Photo: Scott Baker
Just to remind everyone — because he pitched zero innings this year — here’s what possible free agent Scott Baker looks like:

And here’s what he looks like within the sexy boudoir of the Parade Suite at the Bonnemare Manor:

SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters
SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall Leaague. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.

Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Christopher Mcguiness Saguaros 24 57 2.5% 11.1% 18.7% 115
Adalberto Santos Scorpions 24 42 1.9% 11.8% 17.4% 113
Kent Matthes Rafters 25 48 2.2% 10.0% 17.2% 111
Cory Spangenberg Javelinas 21 25 2.0% 11.7% 19.0% 110
Jonathan Schoop Solar Sox 20 41 1.9% 12.4% 19.5% 110
Trayce Thompson Rafters 21 38 2.2% 12.0% 21.3% 110
Joe Panik Scorpions 21 47 1.5% 11.1% 16.0% 109
Brock Kjeldgaard Desert Dogs 26 33 2.9% 9.8% 22.6% 109
Nick Franklin Javelinas 21 43 2.2% 10.3% 19.2% 108
Nate Roberts Javelinas 23 34 1.6% 11.2% 17.1% 108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Prospect-Age AFL Hitters
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the AFL, but only populated with players who are 22 or under — i.e. more distinctly of “prospect” age relative to the league.

Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Cory Spangenberg Javelinas 21 25 2.0% 11.7% 19.0% 110
Jonathan Schoop Solar Sox 20 41 1.9% 12.4% 19.5% 110
Trayce Thompson Rafters 21 38 2.2% 12.0% 21.3% 110
Joe Panik Scorpions 21 47 1.5% 11.1% 16.0% 109
Nick Franklin Javelinas 21 43 2.2% 10.3% 19.2% 108
Christian Vazquez Saguaros 21 30 2.0% 11.4% 19.7% 108
Brian Goodwin Rafters 21 50 2.5% 10.9% 22.3% 108
Matt Szczur Solar Sox 22 63 1.4% 10.8% 15.8% 107
Jonathan Singleton Solar Sox 20 69 2.4% 10.5% 21.7% 106
Ricky Oropesa Scorpions 22 33 1.9% 12.3% 21.9% 106

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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

15 Responses to “Daily Notes: Contract Crowdsourcing, Starters (Part 1)”

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  1. maxjusttyped says:

    No mention of Jake Peavy here?

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  2. bcnbaseball says:

    Scott Baker has expressed interest in staying with the Twins already. Expect a two year deal with the first year being incentive laden and the second year to be a team option for considerably more money. Signed within two weeks. Bank on it.

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    • James says:

      Yes, it’s difficult when you think he will stay with the team, but they won’t exercise the option… My guess would be some sort of deal where the AAV is about the same amount as the option (but year one would be less than the option amount) – but that’s not a very crowdsourceable answer.

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  3. Darren says:

    Zack Greinke – 6 years $175M – Angels

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  4. Lee Schuchart says:

    6 years at nearly $30 million per season?!? Yikes! If this did happen, I would not be a happy Angels fan. A couple years after Weaver takes a “town friendly” deal, they overpay Greinke for his 2009 season?! The guy is good, but not $30 million dollars a season good.

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  5. wallbanger says:

    Grienke back to Milwaukee… 5/$100. He likes our coffee.

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  6. bcnbaseball says:

    30 million hahaha. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. I would love to see the Angels pay 55 million to Pujols and Greinke over the next six years. Maybe they should extend Vernon Wells too at 20 per.

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    • Darren says:

      Perhaps a bit high. But at say $5.5M a win, Greinke has to be projected as a 5 win pitcher for next year. He is only 29.

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      • Bip says:

        Albert Pujols had been worth about 8 wins a season before signing with the Angels. Did he get 44 million dollars a year?

        $/win estimates break down for elite players given the risky nature of long-term contracts and the inherent improbability of repeated elite performance for reasons independent of individual players.

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      • Bip says:

        Also you have to remember that MLB teams will probably hand out contracts based on ERA and Greinke has been about a 3-4 win player based on ERA since 2010.

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      • Tom says:

        5.5mil a win?

        So Dave mistakenly keeps repeating 5mil/win the last 2 offseason as he tries to feed the inflation narrative, and people now think that is reality, and now tack on 0.5mil?

        A win on the free agent has been about 4.5mil for the last 4 years.

        I know there has been this great narrative “inflation!” ” TV contracts!” “massive spending on the horizon” but it is the same thing every offseason – a few guys sign early for a lot, people write stories about inflation, the bargains sign late, people don’t care about these and they don’t fit the inflation narrative.

        Hamilton and/or Greinke will get paid, Dave will write another “see I told you inflation was coming article” and then when all is said and done a win on the FA market will be in the 4.5-5mil range and it will not be as significant as the prisoner of the moment analysis articles after the first few big contracts will have you believe.

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