Daily Notes: Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
2. Table: Top-Five Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
3. Potentially Irrelevant Video: Michael Bourn, Diving Catch

Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Before the end of the season, FanGraphs asked readers to project what sort of contracts the league’s free agents would receive, both in terms of years (Yrs) and average annual value (AAV). Now, as we approach the middle of February, the largest portion of those same free agents have received actual, real-live contracts.

Below are the (sortable) results for those same players who’ve received contracts. The headings preceded by a lower-case c designate the crowdsourced results. The headings preceded by a lower-case a designate the actual results. Finally, headings with a lower-case d designate the difference between the crowdsourced and actual results, wherein a positive result represents those instances where the crowd was particularly optimistic about a player. (All data courtesy MLB Trade Rumors’ Free Agent Tracker.)


Player Team cYrs cAAV cTot aYrs aAAV aTot dYrs dAAV
Delmon Young PHI 2.4 $7.6 $18.2 1 $0.8 $0.8 1.4 $6.8
Francisco Liriano PIT 1.6 $7.3 $11.5 2 $0.5 $1.0 -0.4 $6.8
Shaun Marcum NYN 2.3 $9.6 $21.8 1 $4.0 $4.0 1.3 $5.6
Kelly Johnson TB 2.0 $6.3 $12.5 1 $2.5 $2.5 1.0 $3.8
Travis Hafner NYA 1.2 $5.2 $6.4 1 $2.0 $2.0 0.2 $3.2
Carlos Pena HOU 1.3 $6.0 $7.8 1 $2.9 $2.9 0.3 $3.1
Raul Ibanez SEA 1.3 $5.6 $7.3 1 $2.8 $2.8 0.3 $2.9
Alex Gonzalez MIL 1.3 $4.1 $5.5 1 $1.5 $1.5 0.3 $2.6
Michael Bourn CLE 4.7 $14.3 $67.5 4 $12.0 $48.0 0.7 $2.3
Brandon McCarthy ARI 2.4 $10.0 $24.0 2 $7.8 $15.5 0.4 $2.3
Eric Chavez ARI 1.4 $4.8 $6.7 1 $3.0 $3.0 0.4 $1.8
Michael Gonzalez MIL 1.4 $4.0 $5.7 1 $2.3 $2.3 0.4 $1.8
Luke Scott TB 1.4 $4.5 $6.1 1 $2.8 $2.8 0.4 $1.7
Ichiro Suzuki NYA 1.5 $8.2 $12.4 2 $6.5 $13.0 -0.5 $1.7
David Ross BOS 1.9 $4.8 $9.0 2 $3.1 $6.2 -0.1 $1.7
Maicer Izturis TOR 2.1 $4.6 $9.5 3 $3.0 $9.0 -0.9 $1.6
Placido Polanco MIA 1.4 $4.2 $6.1 1 $2.8 $2.8 0.4 $1.5
Jeff Keppinger CHA 2.0 $5.5 $11.0 3 $4.0 $12.0 -1.0 $1.5
A.J. Pierzynski TEX 2.1 $8.9 $18.9 1 $7.5 $7.5 1.1 $1.4
Koji Uehara BOS 1.9 $5.7 $10.6 1 $4.3 $4.3 0.9 $1.4
Joe Saunders SEA 2.1 $7.8 $16.2 1 $6.5 $6.5 1.1 $1.3
Marco Scutaro SF 2.3 $7.8 $17.7 3 $6.7 $20.0 -0.7 $1.2
Carlos Villanueva CHN 2.0 $5.9 $12.1 2 $5.0 $10.0 0.0 $0.9
Cody Ross ARI 2.6 $9.6 $25.1 3 $8.7 $26.0 -0.4 $0.9
Mike Adams PHI 2.3 $6.7 $15.1 2 $6.0 $12.0 0.3 $0.7
Scott Baker CHN 1.8 $6.1 $11.1 1 $5.5 $5.5 0.8 $0.6
Melky Cabrera TOR 1.7 $8.2 $13.7 2 $8.0 $16.0 -0.3 $0.2
Angel Pagan SF 3.2 $10.1 $32.4 4 $10.0 $40.0 -0.8 $0.1
Nick Swisher CLE 4.4 $14.0 $61.8 4 $14.0 $56.0 0.4 $0.0
Joe Blanton LAA 2.1 $7.5 $16.0 2 $7.5 $15.0 0.1 $0.0
David Ortiz BOS 2.1 $13.0 $27.8 2 $13.0 $26.0 0.1 $0.0
Jonny Gomes BOS 1.5 $5.0 $7.5 2 $5.0 $10.0 -0.5 $0.0
Russell Martin PIT 2.4 $8.2 $20.1 2 $8.5 $17.0 0.4 -$0.3
Adam LaRoche WAS 3.0 $11.6 $34.4 2 $12.0 $24.0 1.0 -$0.4
Edwin Jackson CHN 3.1 $12.5 $38.7 4 $13.0 $52.0 -0.9 -$0.5
Mike Napoli*** BOS 3.5 $12.4 $42.8 3 $13.0 $39.0 0.5 -$0.6
Jeremy Affeldt SF 2.0 $5.3 $10.6 3 $6.0 $18.0 -1.0 -$0.7
Dan Haren WAS 3.0 $11.7 $34.6 1 $13.0 $13.0 2.0 -$1.3
Ryan Dempster BOS 2.8 $11.7 $32.7 2 $13.3 $26.5 0.8 -$1.5
Stephen Drew BOS 2.4 $7.8 $18.5 1 $9.5 $9.5 1.4 -$1.7
Jeremy Guthrie KC 1.8 $6.1 $10.8 3 $8.3 $25.0 -1.2 -$2.2
B.J. Upton ATL 4.5 $12.6 $56.6 5 $15.1 $75.3 -0.5 -$2.4
Shane Victorino BOS 2.7 $10.3 $27.6 3 $13.0 $39.0 -0.3 -$2.7
Torii Hunter DET 2.2 $10.3 $22.4 2 $13.0 $26.0 0.2 -$2.7
Hiroki Kuroda NYA 1.7 $12.2 $20.6 1 $15.0 $15.0 0.7 -$2.8
Kevin Youkilis NYA 2.2 $9.2 $20.2 1 $12.0 $12.0 1.2 -$2.8
Anibal Sanchez DET 4.0 $13.0 $52.2 5 $16.0 $80.0 -1.0 -$3.0
Lance Berkman TEX 1.3 $7.7 $10.0 1 $11.0 $11.0 0.3 -$3.3
Rafael Soriano WAS 2.7 $10.4 $28.4 2 $14.0 $28.0 0.7 -$3.6
Josh Hamilton LAA 4.8 $20.3 $97.3 5 $25.0 $125.0 -0.2 -$4.7
Zack Greinke LAN 5.7 $18.6 $105.8 6 $24.5 $147.0 -0.3 -$5.9
Average 2.4 $8.7 $23.9 2.2 $8.4 $22.9 0.2 $0.4

***As reader TKDC notes — and as the author should have done, as well — the terms of Mike Napoli’s contract have changed, following a physical which revealed that he (i.e. Napoli) no longer has hips. The restructured deal is for one-year and $5 million guaranteed, with various bonuses for time on active roster.

On average, to this point, the crowd has been remarkably accurate, overprojecting both years and average annual value by a slim margin — less than 10%, in each case. If one were interested in making said margins even slimmer, he could modify the terms of the Francisco Liriano contract listed here to reflect the (numerous) stipulations included in his deal with the Pirates — most of which concern an injury Liriano suffered to his non-throwing arm this winter.

As noted in early December, readers have perhaps been a little conservative this offseason so far as the league’s biggest contracts — i.e. those concerning Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton — are concerned. Otherwise, precision has largely been the rule.

Table: Top-Five Remaining Crowdsourced Contracts
Of the free agents whose possible contract terms were crowdsourced this offseason, here are the five remaining largest overall crowdsourced values:


Player Team cYrs cAAV cTot
Kyle Lohse ??? 3.5 $12.7 $44.5
Francisco Rodriguez ??? 1.6 $5.4 $8.4
Carlos Lee ??? 1.3 $5.7 $7.6
Roy Oswalt ??? 1.1 $5.7 $6.5
Casey Kotchman ??? 1.3 $3.7 $4.8

Potentially Irrelevant Video: Michael Bourn, Diving Catch
Here’s footage that probably doesn’t matter of Michael Bourn making a diving catch off a Cameron Maybin liner:



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
TKDC
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TKDC
3 years 3 months ago

Mike Napoli needs to be updated.

maqman
Guest
maqman
3 years 3 months ago

Seems the crowd is smarter than a lot of national pundits.

Dubes
Guest
Dubes
3 years 3 months ago

It seems like the crowd is a lot smarter than a number of G.M.s who rush into hasty decisions. Maybe Drayton Moore should crowd source all of his roster moves before actually making them?

GMD
Guest
GMD
3 years 3 months ago

Just because these were the contracts signed doesn’t mean they are accurate, i.e. “good”, contracts. There is no “smart” or “dumb” regarding this information. The only thing the above proves is that the fans and GMs are mostly on the same page. Time will tell as to whether the fans/GMs were right or wrong.

Charlotte
Guest
Charlotte
3 years 3 months ago

Smart about reading the market, not evaluating players. Time will tell whether Guthrie will be effective in KC, but we can already say that Moore misread what his market value was.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 3 months ago

Looking at the notable FA’s left, it’s pretty slim pickings…what are we thinking Carlos Lee will get now? 1 year, 3 mil? Kotchman, 1 year, 2 mil?

Mr Punch
Guest
Mr Punch
3 years 3 months ago

The crowd’s prediction for Bourn actually isn’t half bad: 4.7 years means 4 or 5, so it’s $14.3 vs $12, which is a 20% error.

yep
Guest
yep
3 years 3 months ago

20% error is not that bad, heh.

DrEasy
Guest
DrEasy
3 years 3 months ago

It stands to reason that the higher the AAV the higher the difference. It would be good to tabulate the dAAV/aAAV to get an idea of the error rate. I think it will make the crowd projections look even more impressive!

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 3 months ago

I still find it amusing that the Fangraphs crowd thought Delmon Young would score an AAV of close to $8M.

Lot
Guest
Lot
3 years 3 months ago

Shouldn’t overall daav be calculated as average of absolute value? The way it’s currently calculated means the average difference will be close to zero regardless of how much accuracy varied.

yep
Guest
yep
3 years 3 months ago

Or use RMS or any metric that can actually be used for a data spectra that contains negative and positive values.

As it stands its pointless.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
3 years 3 months ago

Here’s another way to look at the data, which might be especially helpful here where we have partial years predicted. I can’t seem to find it through searching, but Tango has posted before about a rule of thumb in equating contracts of multiple years. I believe that it was just adding the year number and the AAV value into one number.

e.g. Say someone is looking for a 4 year, $40 million contract. With a $10M AAV, that would add to 14. So it would roughly equate to a 3 year deal for $33 million ($11M AAV), which also counts as a 14. Or a 5 year deal for $45 million. It’s a rough guide, but it seems to pass the smell test, and it gives another tool to compare the overall accuracy on deals where the consensus was split on the years.

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