Daily Notes: Every Team Minus Its Best Player
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Parallel Universe: Every Team Minus Its Best Player
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Parallel Universe: Every Team Minus Its Best Player
Regarding Parallel Universe, Its Definition
Parallel universe is defined in Webster’s Dictionary as a “hypothetical self-contained separate reality in which Biff Tannen has become wealthy and corrupted, and changed Hill Valley into a chaotic dystopia.”
Regarding Parallel Universe, Another Possible Definition
Another possible definition of parallel universe is “a reality not entirely unlike the present one, except in which every major-league team’s best player has been replaced by a freely available one instead.”
Regarding That Second Definition
What this edition of the Notes considers is that second, less common definition of parallel universe.
Table: Every American League Team Minus Its Best Player
Here’s a (sortable) table including: every AL team’s present record, its best player (by WAR), the respective WARs of those best players, and every team’s record (noted as MW and ML, for “minus” wins and losses) were said best player never to’ve been born at all.
| Team | W | L | WIN% | Player | WAR | MW | ML | MWin% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 67 | 46 | .593 | Josh Hamilton | 4.0 | 63 | 50 | .558 |
| New York | 67 | 47 | .588 | Robinson Cano | 5.4 | 62 | 52 | .540 |
| Chicago | 62 | 51 | .549 | Chris Sale | 4.1 | 58 | 55 | .512 |
| Tampa Bay | 62 | 52 | .544 | Ben Zobrist | 3.5 | 59 | 56 | .513 |
| Baltimore | 62 | 53 | .539 | Adam Jones | 3.7 | 58 | 57 | .507 |
| Oakland | 61 | 53 | .535 | Josh Reddick | 3.9 | 57 | 57 | .501 |
| Detroit | 61 | 54 | .530 | Justin Verlander | 5.2 | 56 | 59 | .485 |
| Los Angeles | 60 | 55 | .522 | Mike Trout | 6.9 | 53 | 62 | .462 |
| Boston | 57 | 59 | .491 | David Ortiz | 2.9 | 54 | 62 | .466 |
| Toronto | 54 | 60 | .474 | Edwin Encarnacion | 3.9 | 50 | 64 | .439 |
| Cleveland | 53 | 62 | .461 | Shin-Soo Choo | 2.5 | 51 | 65 | .439 |
| Seattle | 53 | 63 | .457 | Felix Hernandez | 4.4 | 49 | 67 | .419 |
| Kansas City | 49 | 65 | .430 | Alex Gordon | 3.9 | 45 | 69 | .396 |
| Minnesota | 49 | 65 | .430 | Josh Willingham | 3.7 | 45 | 69 | .397 |
Other Table: Every National League Team Minus Its Best Player
Here’s a (sortable) table including: every NL team’s present record, its best player (by WAR), the respective WARs of those best players, and every team’s record (noted as MW and ML, for “minus” wins and losses) were said best player never to’ve been born at all.
| Tm | W | L | Win% | Player | WAR | MW | ML | MWin% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 71 | 44 | .617 | Gio Gonzalez | 4.1 | 67 | 48 | .582 |
| Cincinnati | 69 | 46 | .600 | Joey Votto | 4.8 | 64 | 51 | .558 |
| Atlanta | 66 | 48 | .579 | Michael Bourn | 5.1 | 61 | 53 | .534 |
| Pittsburgh | 64 | 50 | .561 | Andrew McCutchen | 5.9 | 58 | 56 | .510 |
| San Francisco | 63 | 52 | .548 | Buster Posey | 5.0 | 58 | 57 | .504 |
| St. Louis | 62 | 53 | .539 | Matt Holliday | 4.8 | 57 | 58 | .497 |
| Los Angeles | 62 | 53 | .539 | Clayton Kershaw | 3.9 | 58 | 57 | .505 |
| Arizona | 58 | 57 | .504 | Miguel Montero | 3.9 | 54 | 61 | .470 |
| New York | 55 | 60 | .478 | David Wright | 5.8 | 49 | 66 | .428 |
| Philadelphia | 52 | 62 | .456 | Carlos Ruiz | 5.0 | 47 | 67 | .412 |
| Miami | 52 | 63 | .452 | Giancarlo Stanton | 3.5 | 49 | 67 | .422 |
| Milwaukee | 52 | 61 | .460 | Ryan Braun | 5.5 | 47 | 67 | .412 |
| San Diego | 51 | 65 | .440 | Chase Headley | 5.0 | 46 | 70 | .397 |
| Chicago | 44 | 69 | .389 | Alfonso Soriano | 2.9 | 41 | 72 | .364 |
| Colorado | 41 | 71 | .366 | Carlos Gonzalez | 3.0 | 38 | 74 | .339 |
| Houston | 38 | 78 | .328 | Jed Lowrie | 2.5 | 36 | 81 | .306 |
Sample Observation
There are a number of observations one can make from the above pair of tables — including, for example, how, if the Nationals didn’t have Gio Gonzalez, how the Reds would have the best record in the majors.
Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Los Angeles (NL) at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Pittsburgh second baseman Neil Walker entered Sunday slashing .286/.349/.443 in 459 plate appearances, good for a 114 wRC+. He exited that same game hitting .294/.358/.460, with a 121 wRC+, in just six additional plate appearances — on account, largely, of how he went 5-for-5 with a walk during it (box). Walker now enters the week with a 3.8 WAR after beginning Sunday with a 3.4 mark.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: None, really — although the Pittsburgh camera angle is one of the league’s best.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.0.
Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.
| Away | SP | Tm. | Gm. | Tm. | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | LAN | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | PIT | Jeff Karstens | 19:05 |
| Ryan Dempster | TEX | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | NYA | David Phelps* | 19:05 |
| Jake Peavy | CHA | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | TOR | Carlos Villanueva | 19:07 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | MIA | Nathan Eovaldi | 19:10 |
| Eric Stults | SD | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 3 | ATL | Mike Minor | 19:10 |
| Arm. Galarraga* | HOU | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | CHN | Jeff Samardzija | 20:05 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | MIN | Samuel Deduno | 20:10 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 7 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 4 | COL | Jeff Francis | 20:40 |
| Justin Masterson | CLE | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | LAA | C.J. Wilson | 22:05 |
| Alex Cobb | TB | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | SEA | Blake Beavan | 22:10 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | SF | Ryan Vogelsong | 22:15 |
To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.
I like this thought experiment.
If I may suggest another, what if every teams worst player – either lowest WAR or some other definition of worst regular, were replaced by a replacement player, a league average player, or even the best player at that position in baseball. That would look at every teams opportunity for improvement where as this looks at their fragility.
Is that called the Brent Morel Experiment?
or the Michael Young Hypothesis
You know me so well.
I thought I heard the Brent Morel Experiment at some music festival outside Schenectady a couple years back…
They started stronger than everyone expected, then played much worse as the set went on…
As if I would need any more proof that Jeff Francouer needs to be replaced by Wil Myers ASAP.
Hmm…seems as though this isn’t a real parallel universe. You didn’t adjust things back to .500 so now we have 1590-1849 for the league wide record.
Perhaps it is actually a chaotic dystopia, then.
Yes, we need to use WASP* here.
*Wins Above Star Player
I don’t see why this is an issue. I fully expect the Cubs and the Astros to both lose today’s game. They just might play each other a lot more in this dystopia.
Those extra lost wins are carried over to next year’s perpendicular universe – when every team’s worst player will disappear into the ether. Now if the Gods can somehow make sure the Cubs lose their two worst players, then we’re talking World Series for them.
While I also like the idea of looking at the impact of a teams worst player, or qualifying player, I think it is of little use because a player is only allowed to be horrible for so long before they are replaced. In a lot of cases the replacement is not much better, however, that is not always the case. It might be better to look at the teams worst position and the opportunity for improvement by a replacement level player on that position.
@RJD81, unless of course you are Ron Washington and insist on playing the worst player in the game in Michael Young…I would love to see if you replaced the worst player with a better replacement on the Rangers. It wouldn’t be too hard, you could take any other player in baseball and plug him into Young’s spot and they are an instant upgrade.
I still don’t understand the world where Young plays almost every day while Gentry continues to sit on the bench given their respective years.
Are you, koan master odditie, suggesting that data, stats, and philosophical baseball nonsense was discussed just 98 years post Columbus’ arrival in North America? I don’t want this to turn into a re-imagining of the series finale of Lost. Fuck it. We’re trying to combine science-fiction with baseball, and that’s gonna sell a whole-lotta-t-shirts.
Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen are single-handedly generating playoff races.
Was wondering about Wieters for the Orioles. Could you post that info?
Mike Trout is good.
Why you gotta insult the man? Good? That’s like calling Annie Savoy cute! Baby ducks are cute!
Los Angeles without Mike Trout is Cleveland.
Which works on a lot of levels.
I just can’t come to terms with a universe where the Pirates could lose the value of their best player and STILL be projected over .500!! what a world! what a world!
I’d rather see this with the players replaced by their actual backups, rather than replacement-level players.
There are a number of observations one can make from the above pair of tables — including, for example, how, if the Nationals didn’t have Gio Gonzalez, how the Reds would have the best record in the majors.
Isn’t that assuming that if he wasn’t there he would be replaced with a replacement level pitcher? Thats pretty presumptuous. If they had never traded for Gonzalez they would have John Lannon, Brad Peacock, and (I don’t know if you have heard of this guy) Tommy Milone. If they had a 1.8 WAR Tommy Milone in the rotation right now you would have to assume that they would have the exact same record as the Reds.
Also, if they had never made that trade, they would have had Derek Norris to fall back when Ramos got hurt on instead of the replacement level Jesus Flores. Or, heaven forbid, Kurt Suzuki.
The exercise wasn’t “what if the specific transaction in which a team acquired its best player were reversed?” but “what would happen if the best player on each team suddenly disappeared?” As I said above, I do wish he had looked at actual backups (Lannan, in your example).
So if the Astros added M Trout, R Cano, D Wright, C Ruiz, J Hamilton, CarGo and C Kershaw they would be 72-44 right now… a half game ahead of Washington for best record..??? Can’t decide if I am more surprised in how bad Houston is or how good Washington is??
Wow.
That is an incredible statistic.
Jon Miller on the radio, after Adam LaRoche’s flyout in the 4th inning: “it’s been that kind of a night for the Giants.”
Isn’t this missing:
1. Value subtracted be scaled by Team WAR? [Nats Team WAR may not be equal to team win %]
2. Correlation affect between players?
I thought David Price had a higher WAR than Zobrist.