Daily Notes, Featuring a Question About Billy Hamilton

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Crowdsourcing: Billy Hamilton’s Whole Career
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Pretty Excellent and Recent Video of Joe Panik

Crowdsourcing: Billy Hamilton’s Whole Career
Reds prospect Billy Hamilton has earned considerable attention from prospect analysts for possessing what is likely generational footspeed — nor did he do anything to dim their enthusiasm this past Saturday, during the Arizona Fall League’s Rising Stars Game, stealing two bases and also reaching on a drag bunt. At the same time, he’s showed little power (7 HR in 1711 PA) and was recently moved off of shortstop (to center field). What we want to know is, “What will Hamilton’s career look like, ultimately?”

Please answer mostly that same question right here:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall Leaague. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average. (Click here for more on SCOUT.)


Player MLB Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Kent Matthes Rockies 25 66 2.6% 10.6% 18.0% 118
Christopher Mcguiness Rangers 24 70 2.3% 10.9% 17.5% 116
Joe Panik Giants 21 60 1.7% 10.9% 14.2% 115
Jonathan Schoop Orioles 20 62 2.0% 12.8% 19.9% 113
Nick Franklin Mariners 21 53 2.1% 11.7% 19.1% 112
Trayce Thompson White Sox 21 46 2.1% 13.1% 21.4% 112
Adalberto Santos Pirates 24 60 1.7% 11.4% 16.9% 112
Josh Prince Brewers 24 73 1.6% 11.2% 16.4% 111
Matt Szczur Cubs 22 78 1.6% 10.5% 15.8% 110
Jonathan Singleton Astros 20 86 2.2% 12.1% 22.0% 110

SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters (Prospect-Age)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the AFL, but only populated with players who are 22 or under — i.e. more distinctly of “prospect” age relative to the league.


Player MLB Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Joe Panik Giants 21 60 1.7% 10.9% 14.2% 115
Jonathan Schoop Orioles 20 62 2.0% 12.8% 19.9% 113
Nick Franklin Mariners 21 53 2.1% 11.7% 19.1% 112
Trayce Thompson White Sox 21 46 2.1% 13.1% 21.4% 112
Matt Szczur Cubs 22 78 1.6% 10.5% 15.8% 110
Jonathan Singleton Astros 20 86 2.2% 12.1% 22.0% 110
Christian Vazquez Red Sox 21 39 1.8% 11.9% 19.7% 109
Cory Spangenberg Padres 21 34 1.8% 11.1% 19.1% 108
Ricky Oropesa Giants 22 42 1.8% 12.8% 22.6% 105
Rymer Liriano Padres 21 60 2.3% 8.4% 19.5% 105

SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.


Player MLB Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Mark Montgomery Yankees 21 7 0 8.1 31 26.1% 10.0% 88
Chase Anderson Diamondbacks 24 4 4 13.2 55 25.5% 9.7% 89
Grant Dayton Marlins 24 7 0 8.1 35 25.6% 10.1% 89
Nicholas Bucci Brewers 21 4 4 13.2 61 24.7% 9.3% 89
Kyle Gibson Twins 24 4 4 15.0 67 24.6% 9.2% 89
Kevin Quackenbush Padres 23 8 0 8.1 29 25.1% 9.7% 89
Kevin Rhoderick Cubs 23 9 0 9.1 35 24.9% 9.5% 90
Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 22 4 3 12.0 46 24.1% 9.4% 91
Pete Ruiz Red Sox 24 7 0 9.2 43 24.5% 9.8% 91
Nick Tropeano Astros 21 8 1 11.0 42 24.0% 9.6% 92

SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the AFL, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.


Player MLB Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Chase Anderson Diamondbacks 24 4 4 13.2 55 25.5% 9.7% 89
Nicholas Bucci Brewers 21 4 4 13.2 61 24.7% 9.3% 89
Kyle Gibson Twins 24 4 4 15.0 67 24.6% 9.2% 89
Kevin Siegrist Cardinals 22 4 3 12.0 46 24.1% 9.4% 91
Seth Blair Cardinals 23 4 4 13.1 57 24.6% 10.2% 92
T.J. House Indians 22 4 4 17.0 63 23.8% 9.8% 92
Robbie Erlin Padres 21 4 4 10.2 43 23.2% 9.8% 94
James Paxton Mariners 23 5 5 12.2 57 23.3% 9.9% 94
Boone Whiting Cardinals 22 5 5 17.1 72 22.6% 9.6% 95
James Nelson Brewers 23 5 4 14.2 61 22.7% 10.2% 96

Pretty Excellent and Recent Video of Joe Panik
San Francisco middle-infield prospect Joe Panik is currently first among all prospect-age batters on the SCOUT leaderboard. Here’s some pretty excellent and recent video of him, courtesy Bullpen Banter’s Steve Fiorindo.




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7 Responses to “Daily Notes, Featuring a Question About Billy Hamilton”

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  1. Eminor3rd says:

    I feel like 11-25 WAR is a really wide range

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  2. Mr Punch says:

    Everything I’ve read about Hamilton focuses on his offense – but it seems to me there’s some defensive uncertainty here too. Not only don’t I know how a good a fielder he is, I don’t know where he’ll wind up playing. A lot of IF prospects are moved to OF, where speed can be a huge asset. I could envision him, for instance, as a CF whose WAR is entirely on the defensive side.

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    • SKob says:

      Well, yes, he’s already been moved to CF, and yes, a good CF can accumulate 20-30 WAR over a 10 year career without picking up a bat! The question is will he lose value with the bat. He has good contact skills to keep a good average, but if anything ever happens to his speed he really has nothing.

      In light of a recent story about how he tracked down a fly ball on the warning track after not moving for a few seconds because he thought it was hit right at him, that speed will add up to plenty of value in CF! Especially once he gets a clue out there!

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  3. Nick says:

    Otis Nixon was about a 12. Ralph Garr was around 16. Mookie Wilson was about 20. Juan Pierre is closer to 30. I’m not sold that Hamilton will hit enough to play CF as a starter (see Tony Campana) but I think he’ll definitely contribute enough to crack 10 WAR over 10 years.

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  4. RA Rowe says:

    Does anyone else think Panik’s bat speed looks a little suspect in that video?

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  5. Ben Hall says:

    Vince Coleman had just over 13.1 career WAR. Hamilton’s walked more in the minors, and Coleman didn’t provide much value in the field, but unless Hamilton is able to maintain the walks while not hitting much and turn into a very good centerfielder, Coleman seems like a good expectation.

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