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Daily Notes: Featuring No Fewer Than Two Caveats

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. No Fewer Than Two Caveats
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

No Fewer Than Two Caveats
Here are at least two caveats — or something not unlike caveats — regarding today’s edition of the Notes.

Caveat No. 1
While the author is typically dissatisfied until every American, each day, has both (a) read completely that morning’s edition of the Daily Notes and then (b) sent to the author a personal note of congratulations, he (i.e. that same author) understands if the readership — owing to Events Most Grievous currently unfolding in Boston, and the Haunted Appeal of those events to the public’s mind (the author’s own mind included) — is distracted.

Caveat No. 2
In decidedly less fraught news, note that the author has added — to the game odds below, with the translations to projected winning percentages — has added pitcher innings totals and xFIP- figures for the 2013 season so far.

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Stephen Strasburg, who (not surprisingly) has posted the highest average fastball velocity among 103 qualified starters so far, faces Matt Harvey, who’s posted the third-highest one of those. Of note: the slow-motion camera on the Mets broadcast, which has inspired GIFs like the one below here of Matt Harvey’s beguiling slidepiece.

Harvey Slider 1

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

Chicago NL at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
As noted above, Strasburg and Harvey have so far posted the league’s highest and third-highest average fastball velocities, respectively. Second in the league by that same measure is Jeff Samardzija. For our Convenience and Pleasure, Samardzija has consented to pitch this evening. Both Samardzija (19.2 IP, 60 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) and his opponent, right-hander Marco Estrada (18.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR), have been rather effective so far.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Arizona at Colorado | 20:40 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Through 15 games, the Colorado Rockies have posted the league’s third-best collective field-player WAR among major-league teams. Here’s a table, provided for the reader entirely free of charge, of the club’s top-five players by WAR thus far:

Name PA BB% K% HR BABIP wRC+ WAR
Carlos Gonzalez 65 13.8% 15.4% 4 .429 210 1.1
Dexter Fowler 60 11.7% 23.3% 7 .250 173 0.9
Troy Tulowitzki 59 11.9% 11.9% 4 .275 151 0.8
Wilin Rosario 48 4.2% 31.3% 4 .407 141 0.7
Michael Cuddyer 56 12.5% 10.7% 3 .375 178 0.6

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio*.

*The Arizona television broadcast team has changed since FanGraphs released the results of its crowdsourcing efforts to rank the league’s broadcast teams.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- —– Line Win%
19:05 Atlanta Braves Tim Hudson 18.0 93 | 1.79 54.8%
ET Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez 9.0 118 | 2.17 45.2%
|
19:05 St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia 19.1 87 | 1.83 53.5%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Roy Halladay 15.1 107 | 2.11 46.5%
|
19:10 Miami Marlins Kevin Slowey 17.2 115 | 3.06 32.1%
ET Cincinnati Reds Mat Latos 19.1 85 | 1.44 67.9%
|
19:10 Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg 18.1 95 | 1.83 53.5%
ET New York Mets Matt Harvey 22.0 79 | 2.11 46.5%
|
20:10 Chicago Cubs Jeff Samardzija 19.2 60 | 2.02 48.6%
ET Milwaukee Brewers Marco Estrada 18.0 83 | 1.91 51.4%
|
20:40 Arizona Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy 18.2 102 | 2.23 44.0%
ET Colorado Rockies Jhoulys Chacin 18.1 102 | 1.75 56.0%
|
22:15 San Diego Padres Edinson Volquez 12.1 128 | 3.01 32.6%
ET San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner 20.1 101 | 1.46 67.4%
|
19:05 New York Yankees Andy Pettitte 15.0 109 | 2.04 48.0%
ET Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow 15.2 112 | 1.89 52.0%
|
19:10 Kansas City Royals James Shields 21.0 73 | 2.20 44.6%
ET Boston Red Sox Clay Buchholz 22.0 85 | 1.77 55.4%
|
19:10 Oakland Athletics Brett Anderson 18.2 87 | 1.98 49.5%
ET Tampa Bay Rays Alex Cobb 14.0 87 | 1.94 50.5%
|
20:05 Seattle Mariners Joe Saunders 17.1 107 | 2.92 33.6%
ET Texas Rangers Yu Darvish 19.2 56 | 1.48 66.4%
|
20:10 Cleveland Indians Brett Myers 16.1 119 | 1.94 50.5%
ET Houston Astros Lucas Harrell 16.0 109 | 1.98 49.5%
|
20:10 Minnesota Twins Vance Worley 12.0 113 | 2.47 39.7%
ET Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 18.1 53 | 1.63 60.3%
|
22:05 Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez 19.0 84 | 1.93 50.9%
ET LAA Angels Tommy Hanson 11.0 121 | 2.00 49.1%
|
19:05 Los Angeles Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu 18.2 71 | 2.15 45.6%
ET Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel 18.2 131 | 1.80 54.4%