Daily Notes, Featuring SCOUT Leaders of the PCL

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes — to compare, for example, the performance of Colorado prospect Edwar Cabrera (31.2 IP, 29.3% K, 9.0% BB) to St. Louis’s Shelby Miller (136.2 IP, 26.7% K, 8.4% BB).

Regarding the Pacific Coast League, Its Regular Season
The Pacific Coast League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

Top Batters of the Pacific Coast League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Anthony Rizzo Cubs (AAA) 22 284 7.8% 8.1% 18.3% 164
Luke Montz Marlins (AAA) 28 420 6.9% 10.7% 24.0% 150
Travis Snider Blue Jays (AAA) 24 246 4.8% 13.8% 17.1% 147
Kila Ka’aihue Athletics (AAA) 28 305 4.9% 14.4% 19.7% 146
Jedd Gyorko Padres (AAA) 23 408 5.9% 8.3% 16.7% 145
Brandon Moss Athletics (AAA) 28 224 5.6% 9.8% 17.9% 144
Josh Donaldson Athletics (AAA) 26 234 4.9% 9.8% 14.5% 141
Brooks Conrad Brewers (AAA) 32 85 5.0% 10.4% 17.8% 139
Donnie Murphy Marlins (AAA) 29 125 5.7% 10.2% 21.7% 139
Daric Barton Athletics (AAA) 26 336 2.4% 19.6% 15.8% 139

Top Batters of the Pacific Coast League (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Anthony Rizzo Cubs (AAA) 22 284 7.8% 8.1% 18.3% 164
Travis Snider Blue Jays (AAA) 24 246 4.8% 13.8% 17.1% 147
Jedd Gyorko Padres (AAA) 23 408 5.9% 8.3% 16.7% 145
Jerry Sands Dodgers (AAA) 24 522 5.0% 11.3% 20.3% 136
Wil Myers Royals (AAA) 21 439 5.5% 10.3% 22.3% 134
Leonys Martin Rangers (AAA) 24 260 4.3% 9.2% 15.0% 132
Matt Adams Cardinals (AAA) 23 276 6.2% 5.4% 20.7% 132
Yasmani Grandal Padres (AAA) 23 235 2.5% 15.7% 15.3% 129
Travis D’Arnaud Blue Jays (AAA) 23 303 5.3% 6.3% 19.5% 126
Johnny Giavotella Royals (AAA) 24 418 2.4% 11.0% 9.6% 125

Top Pitchers of the Pacific Coast League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 pitchers of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Brian Moran Mariners (AAA) 23 37.0 143 36.2% 8.5% 55
Brad Boxberger Padres (AAA) 24 43.1 183 33.9% 9.2% 62
Dan Straily Athletics (AAA) 23 66.2 255 32.2% 8.0% 64
Juan Perez Brewers (AAA) 33 40.0 168 32.1% 9.6% 68
Cory Burns Padres (AAA) 24 65.0 256 30.1% 7.7% 68
Yoshinori Tateyama Rangers (AAA) 36 39.2 153 29.4% 7.4% 69
Jose Valdez Astros (AAA) 29 43.2 205 28.8% 7.5% 71
Kevin Jepsen Angels (AAA) 27 25.0 98 29.6% 8.7% 72
Tommy Hottovy Royals (AAA) 30 50.0 210 29.0% 8.2% 72
Ryota Igarashi Blue Jays (AAA) 33 21.0 76 27.6% 7.9% 75

Top Pitchers of the Pacific Coast League (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Dan Straily Athletics (AAA) 23 66.2 255 32.2% 8.0% 64
Edwar Cabrera Rockies (AAA) 24 31.2 133 28.0% 8.7% 76
John Ely Dodgers (AAA) 26 168.2 682 24.2% 5.3% 77
Trevor Bauer Diamondbacks (AAA) 21 82.0 347 28.0% 9.5% 78
Shelby Miller Cardinals (AAA) 21 136.2 599 26.7% 8.3% 78
Tyler Lyons Cardinals (AAA) 24 88.1 366 24.3% 6.1% 79
Tyler Thornburg Brewers (AAA) 23 37.2 162 25.9% 8.4% 80
Yusmeiro Petit Giants (AAA) 27 166.2 701 21.8% 5.1% 83
Wade LeBlanc Marlins (AAA) 27 98.2 403 22.6% 5.9% 83
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks (AAA) 22 52.1 227 24.2% 7.8% 83

Three Notable Performances
• Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who turned 23 at the beginning of August, was both the best young and best overall hitter in the PCL this season, per SCOUT, largely owing to his home-run rate. Rizzo hit 23 homers in 284 plate appearances with the Iowa Cubs in a park that, according to StatCorner, features just a 77 home-run park factor for left-handed batters. Through Sunday, Rizzo had hit .300/.351/.475 (.323 BABIP), with a 119 wRC+, in 279 plate appearances as a Cub this season.
• Royals second baseman Johnny Giavotella posted an 8.0% walk and only 11.3% strikeout rate in 503 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha last season but saw those rates deteriorate considerably (to 3.2% and 17.1%, respectively) during his almost 200 plate appearances at the major-league level. This year, he improved upon his plate-discipline stats, walking in 11.0% of his 418 Triple-A plate appearances and striking out out in just 9.6% of them. A comparable performance at the major-league level (139 PA, 5.8%, 18.7% K,.237/.281/.298, .288 BABIP, 61 wRC+, -0.3 WAR in 2012 so far) remains absent, but the control of the strike zone is very present.
• In tandem with his performance at Double-A Midland, Oakland right-hander Dan Straily, 23, led all minor leaguers this year in strikeouts, with 190 in 152.0 total innings — this, from a 24th-round draft pick out of Marshall in 2009. Straily has refined his mechanics and added velocity in the meantime, however, leading to his breakout season. He starts tonight for the A’s in a decidedly important game against the Angels.

Other SCOUT Leaderboards
International League (Triple-A)
Eastern League (Double-A)
Southern League (Double-A)
Texas League (Double-A)
California, Carolina, and Florida State Leagues Combined (High-A)
Midwest and Sally Leagues Combined (Class-A)
New York-Penn and Northwest Leagues Combined (Low-A)
Appalachian, Arizona, Gulf Coast, and Pioneer Leagues Combined (Rookie)

Today’s Notable Games
Tampa Bay at Baltimore | 19:05 ET
The Rays and Orioles are two and one game out, respectively, of the AL East lead entering play today, from which fact anyone — even an alumnus of a lesser Ivy — might conclude that this game tonight is of no little importance.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Kansas City at Minnesota | 20:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
This game features the very same Johnny Giavotella considered in painful detail above.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota Radio.

Oakland at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Player featured: likely Rookie of the Year and MVP winner in the American League, Mike Trout. Also: the very same Dan Straily considered — albeit less painfully than Johnny Giavotella — above.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.8.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Nathan Eovaldi MIA 4 5 4 4 8 PHI Roy Halladay 19:05
Matt Moore TB 7 6 8 2 8 BAL Jason Hammel 19:05
Erasmo Ramirez* SEA 9 4 5 5 7 TOR Brandon Morrow 19:07
Hiroki Kuroda NYA 6 6 5 5 7 BOS Jon Lester 19:10
Kevin Correia PIT 2 4 3 5 7 CIN Mike Leake 19:10
Jor. Zimmermann WAS 8 7 6 2 10 NYN R.A. Dickey 19:10
Justin Germano CHN 4 1 2 4 6 HOU Jordan Lyles 20:05
Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 2 2 2 7 5 TEX Matt Harrison 20:05
Tim Hudson ATL 4 7 5 9 8 MIL Marco Estrada 20:10
Doug Fister DET 7 4 6 4 5 CHA Jake Peavy 20:10
Will Smith KC 4 7 3 5 6 MIN Scott Diamond 20:10
Mad. Bumgarner SF 9 3 3 7 2 COL Jhoulys Chacin 20:40
Clayton Kershaw LAN 10 1 6 6 5 AZ Ian Kennedy 21:40
Dan Straily* OAK 10 6 8 8 6 LAA Jerome Williams 22:05
Ad. Wainwright STL 9 9 6 6 5 SD Edinson Volquez 22:05

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

2 Responses to “Daily Notes, Featuring SCOUT Leaders of the PCL”

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  1. Big Jgke says:

    Erasmo Ramirez gets the ‘Erasmo’ Bump to hit 9 on the NERD, right?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. *By the method outlined here.

    They told me that you had gone totally insane and that your methods are unsound.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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