Daily Notes, Ft. Entirely Premature AFL Leaderboards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Premature SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
2. Video: Brian Goodwin on Emergence
3. Today’s Playoff Games

Premature SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
Regarding What Happened Recently
Recently (which is to say, Tuesday), this year’s edition of the Arizona Fall League began.

Regarding What’s Happening Now
What happening right now is, is the author is publishing a pair of entirely premature SCOUT leaderboards — one for hitting, the other for pitching — including the data from the first two days of the AFL.

Regarding What Is SCOUT
SCOUT is a metric calculated using regressed defense-indepedent numbers (walks, strikeouts, and — for hitters — home runs). The offensive version is SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Its pitching counterpart is SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention. (Read more here, if you’re even interested.)

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes and/or batted-ball luck.

Premature SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Hitters
Here are the top-10 hitters in the AFL after two stupid games:


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Brian Goodwin WAS 21 6 2.4% 11.7% 21.7% 106
Brock Kjeldgaard MIL 26 5 2.4% 11.8% 21.8% 106
Kevin Pillar TOR 23 5 2.4% 11.8% 21.8% 106
Trayce Thompson CHA 21 9 2.0% 13.1% 21.9% 105
Jonathan Schoop BAL 20 5 2.0% 12.8% 21.8% 105
Matt Skole WAS 22 6 2.4% 11.7% 22.3% 104
Matt Davidson ARI 21 6 2.4% 11.7% 22.3% 104
Kent Matthes COL 25 4 2.4% 11.4% 22.0% 104
Whit Merrifield KC 23 5 2.0% 12.3% 21.8% 103
Andy Wilkins CHA 23 4 2.4% 11.4% 22.6% 103

Premature SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Pitchers
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the AFL — also after just two stupid games:


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Tyler Chatwood COL 22 4.0 16 24.2% 11.3% 96
James Paxton SEA 23 3.0 11 24.2% 11.5% 96
Chris Gloor SF 25 4.0 13 23.9% 11.3% 96
Gary Daley OAK 26 2.0 9 23.9% 11.4% 97
Pete Ruiz BOS 24 1.1 4 24.0% 11.5% 97
Curtis Partch CIN 25 1.0 4 24.0% 11.5% 97
Kevin Rhoderick CHN 23 1.2 6 23.7% 11.5% 97
Shawn Haviland OAK 26 3.0 10 23.7% 11.6% 97
Kirby Yates TB 25 1.0 3 23.4% 11.5% 98
Andrew Hayes CIN 24 1.0 7 23.5% 11.6% 98

Three Notes
Brian Goodwin is an entirely athletic outfielder in the Nationals system who showed excellent plate discipline (16.2% BB, 14.7% K) in 266 Class A plate appearances this past season before earning a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg, where his control over the zone eroded (9.7% BB, 26.9% K). Still, he was young for the league.
Jonathan Schoop is a Baltimore prospect who played all of 2012 as a 20-year-old in the Double-A Eastern League (i.e. young), splitting time at short with Manny Machado, before the latter’s promotion.
Tyler Chatwood, whom the reader might know from Mediocre Major League Innings with Colorado is younger than Seattle prospect James Paxton, the author was surprised to learn.

Video: Brian Goodwin on Emergence
Here is Washington Nationals talented outfield prospect Brian Goodwin describing a delicate and beautiful idea:

Today’s Playoff Games
NLDS, Game 5 (2-2 Tie) | San Francisco at Cincinnati | 13:00 ET on TBS
SF: Matt Cain (219.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 3.8 WAR — although, 6.1 RA9 Wins)
CIN: Mat Latos (209.1 IP, 97 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR)

NLDS, Game 4 (2-1 STL) | St. Louis at Washington | 16:00 ET on TBS
STL: Kyle Lohse (211.0 IP, 101 xFIP-, 3.6 WAR)
WAS: Ross Detwiler (164.1 IP, 111 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR)

ALDS, Game 4 (2-1 NYA) | Baltimore at New York | 19:30 ET on TBS
BAL: Joe Saunders (174.2 IP, 107 xFIP-, 2.5 WAR)
NYA: Phil Hughes (191.1 IP, 105 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR)

ALDS, Game 5 (2-2 Tie) | Detroit at Oakland | 21:30 ET on TNT
DET: Justin Verlander (238.1 IP, 80 xFIP-, 6.8 WAR)
OAK: Jarrod Parker (181.1 IP, 95 xFIP-, 3.7 WAR)




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


4 Responses to “Daily Notes, Ft. Entirely Premature AFL Leaderboards”

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  1. Eminor3rd says:

    I like your leaderboards, Carson. I do, however, wish I could also see some of the more “traditional” stats that go along with them, however, like total HR, maybe triple slash (or at least wOBA), and SB/CS. Maybe there isn’t space for these, but I think it would enhance the overall experience if it was possible. Thanks for your work.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Sir says:

    Scout is so weird (at least over really small sample sizes).

    Also, Brian Goodwin deserves a bump in his prospect ranking, because he just helped me to understand emergent properties in complex adaptive ecosystems. I’ve been struggling with that.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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