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Daily Notes: Ft. Five Terribly Urgent FAN Projection Targets

Posted By Carson Cistulli On January 7, 2013 @ 10:50 am In Daily Notes | 7 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Five Terribly Urgent FAN Projection Targets
2. Bias-Creating Video: Trevor Rosenthal, Maxing
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

Five Terribly Urgent FAN Projection Targets
In the not very distant past, Dark Overlord of FanGraphs David Appelman released for the benefit of the bespectacled readership this year’s FAN Projection ballots. Less than a week later, over 200 players have reached the eight-vote threshold required for their projections to appear on the main FAN Projection page.

Here, the present author imposes his tastes and biases onto the reader — in this case, by requesting that said reader project players (a) who’ve not reached the eight-vote threshold and (b) about whom he (i.e. the author, again) is particularly curious.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Allez!:

Player: Maikel Cleto, RHP, St. Louis
2012 Line: 53.2 IP, 11.07 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 3.16 FIP at Triple-A
Notes: Cleto sits at ca. 97 mph with his fastball, but has thrown only 13.1 major-league innings so far.

¡Submit Projection for Maikel Cleto!

Player: Leonys Martin, OF, Texas
2012 Line: 260 PA, .359/.422/.610 (.392 BABIP), 164 wRC+ at Triple-A
Notes: The Cuban emigre appears likely to receive playing time following the departure of Josh Hamilton.

¡Submit Projection for Leonys Martin!

Player: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, St. Louis
2012 Line: 22.2 IP, 9.93 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.09 FIP at MLB
Notes: Rosenthal came out of something close to nowhere, sitting at ca. 97 mph with his fastball out of the bullpen; however, GM John Mozeliak suggested in October that he (i.e. Rosenthal) would come into spring training conditioned as a starter.

¡Submit Projection for Trevor Rosenthal!

Player: Dan Straily, RHP, Oakland
2012 Line: 39.1 IP, 7.32 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 2.52 HR/9, 6.48 FIP at MLB
Notes: Straily led the minors in strikeouts in 2012, posting 190 of them between Double- and Triple-A, but saw his strikeout rate almost halved following a promotion to the major leagues.

¡Submit Projection for Dan Straily!

Player: Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis
2012 Line: 531 PA, .321/.380/.572 (.323 BABIP), 159 wRC+ at Double-A
Notes: Taveras is considered one of the game’s top prospects, but the Cardinals also have a more or less established outfield.

¡Submit Projection for Oscar Taveras!

Bias-Creating Video: Trevor Rosenthal, Maxing
Here’s video that will likely bias the reader of Trevor Rosenthal striking out both Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman during the 2012 NLDS:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Venezuelan Winter League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed on team with which he ended 2012 season. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Luis Jimenez Mariners 30 DH 209 3.7% 18.7% 13.9% 153
Evan Gattis Braves 25 DH 211 6.0% 7.6% 14.2% 147
Carlos Maldonado Nationals 31 C 207 4.7% 14.0% 21.7% 135
Luis Valbuena Cubs 26 2B 217 2.6% 15.7% 15.2% 128
Chris Nowak IND 29 3B 140 3.1% 13.3% 15.8% 127
C.J. Retherford Dodgers 26 3B 263 2.9% 11.4% 12.9% 124
Jose Lopez White Sox 28 3B 188 2.5% 12.6% 12.2% 124
Carlos Rivero Nationals 24 3B 232 3.8% 11.6% 19.0% 124
Salvador Perez Royals 22 DH 141 3.8% 7.3% 12.4% 123
Justin Henry Tigers 27 RF 106 1.4% 14.4% 10.4% 120

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters (Prospects)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with players who are 25 or under — i.e. something more like “prospect” age relative to the league.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Evan Gattis Braves 25 DH 211 6.0% 7.6% 14.2% 147
Carlos Rivero Nationals 24 3B 232 3.8% 11.6% 19.0% 124
Salvador Perez Royals 22 DH 141 3.8% 7.3% 12.4% 123
Darwin Perez Angels 22 SS 179 2.2% 19.5% 24.6% 116
Ezequiel Carrera Indians 25 LF 129 1.9% 11.8% 13.1% 113
Darin Ruf Phillies 25 LF 137 4.5% 11.5% 29.5% 110
Dave Sappelt Cubs 25 CF 124 2.9% 7.6% 14.3% 110
Rossmel Perez Diamondbacks 22 C 28 2.0% 11.1% 14.0% 109
Pablo Sandoval Giants 25 3B 39 2.2% 9.6% 13.4% 109
Yangervis Solarte Rangers 24 OF 195 1.4% 9.7% 9.2% 108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Alex Torres Rays 24 14 14 60.1 264 32.5% 9.6% 60
Enrique Gonzalez NPB 29 27   27.2 108 27.3% 8.0% 69
Deolis Guerra Twins 23 20   26.0 107 25.4% 8.2% 75
Danny Farquhar Mariners 25 21   24.0 98 25.7% 8.5% 75
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Nationals 27 12 10 53.2 226 25.3% 8.1% 75
Seth Etherton N/A 35 7 7 30.0 127 24.5% 7.5% 75
Anthony Ortega N/A 26 29   31.1 135 25.0% 9.0% 78
Jarrett Grube Mariners 30 7 7 27.2 120 24.7% 9.6% 80
Ryan Reid Rays 27 21   22.0 94 23.5% 8.8% 81
Josh Schmidt Marlins 29 11 11 59.2 249 22.9% 8.8% 83

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Alex Torres Rays 24 14 14 60.1 264 32.5% 9.6% 60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Nationals 27 12 10 53.2 226 25.3% 8.1% 75
Seth Etherton N/A 35 7 7 30.0 127 24.5% 7.5% 75
Jarrett Grube Mariners 30 7 7 27.2 120 24.7% 9.6% 80
Josh Schmidt Marlins 29 11 11 59.2 249 22.9% 8.8% 83
Paolo Espino Indians 25 7 7 30.2 132 20.0% 8.0% 88
Eric Berger Indians 26 9 9 45.0 191 19.9% 7.9% 88
Sergio Perez Astros 27 14 14 72.0 302 19.5% 7.9% 89
Donovan Hand Brewers 26 7 7 34.1 148 18.9% 8.1% 91
Thad Weber Tigers 27 5 5 23.1 106 18.8% 8.4% 92


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