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Daily Notes, Ft. WS Odds Converted into Projections

Posted By Carson Cistulli On December 18, 2012 @ 10:00 am In Daily Notes | 11 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. World Series Odds Converted into Projections
2. Video: Cubs Shortstop Prospect Arismendy Alcantara
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

World Series Odds Converted into Projections
Bovada (née Bodog) has published their early odds for the winner of the 2013 World Series. Odds for each of the 30 major-league teams are reproduced below. Also included are the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the sum of all break-even percentages to 100%.

Note: the author has assumed, as appears to be customary, that the bettor gets his original stake back in a winning bet. So if the odds are 8/1 — as they are for Toronto — the bettor receives $9 in return for a winning $1 bet, making the break-even point only 11.1%.

Other note: Bovada is generally considered to be what’s known as a “square” book — which is to say, it tends to take bets from casual bettors who are more likely to bet on favorites or for their hometown team, for example. Accordingly, these books will offer less favorable odds on more popular clubs — and artificially inflate the projected World Series chances of those clubs, in the process. A “sharp” book, meanwhile, tends to cater more towards experienced bettors, who are more likely to place reasoned bets.


Team Odds BE Proj%
Toronto Blue Jays 8/1 11.1% 8.5%
Los Angeles Angels 17/2 10.5% 8.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers 17/2 10.5% 8.0%
Washington Nationals 9/1 10.0% 7.6%
Detroit Tigers 10/1 9.1% 6.9%
Cincinnati Reds 12/1 7.7% 5.9%
New York Yankees 12/1 7.7% 5.9%
Texas Rangers 12/1 7.7% 5.9%
San Francisco Giants 14/1 6.7% 5.1%
Philadelphia Phillies 15/1 6.3% 4.8%
Atlanta Braves 18/1 5.3% 4.0%
Boston Red Sox 25/1 3.8% 2.9%
St. Louis Cardinals 25/1 3.8% 2.9%
Tampa Bay Rays 25/1 3.8% 2.9%
Oakland Athletics 28/1 3.4% 2.6%
Milwaukee Brewers 35/1 2.8% 2.1%
Baltimore Orioles 40/1 2.4% 1.9%
Chicago White Sox 40/1 2.4% 1.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks 45/1 2.2% 1.7%
Kansas City Royals 45/1 2.2% 1.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates 50/1 2.0% 1.5%
Cleveland Indians 75/1 1.3% 1.0%
Minnesota Twins 75/1 1.3% 1.0%
New York Mets 75/1 1.3% 1.0%
Seattle Mariners 75/1 1.3% 1.0%
Chicago Cubs 100/1 1.0% 0.8%
Colorado Rockies 100/1 1.0% 0.8%
Miami Marlins 100/1 1.0% 0.8%
San Diego Padres 100/1 1.0% 0.8%
Houston Astros 200/1 0.5% 0.4%

If we take for granted that each of the final eight teams to qualify for the playoffs has a 12.5% chance of winning the World Series — which, admittedly, is something we maybe can’t take for granted — then we might say, based on this information, that Toronto has something like a 68% chance (8.5%/12.5%) of qualifying for the divisional series, while Houston has about a 3% chance.

Video: Cubs Shortstop Prospect Arismendy Alcantara
Arismendy Alcantara, who played at High-A Daytona this past year as a 20-year-old, makes his first appearance today on the SCOUT batting leaderboard for Dominican Winter League hitters of something resembling prospect age, with a 4:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio and a home run in just 16 plate appearances.

While our own entirely admirable Marc Hulet omitted Alcantara from his Cubs top-15 prospect list, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation very recently ranked Alcantara ninth among Cubs prospects, citing his (i.e. Alcantara’s) “plus-plus hitting potential” and ability to remain at short.

Here’s video, courtesy of Baseball Instinct, of Alcantara from this summer:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Dominican Winter League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Hector Luna Phillies 32 3B 193 2.7% 14.8% 14.0% 135
Nelson Perez Cubs 24 OF 104 2.5% 18.1% 23.8% 124
Ricardo Nanita Blue Jays 31 OF 132 1.4% 12.3% 8.9% 122
Mauro Gomez Red Sox 27 1B 193 3.0% 12.8% 20.2% 121
Jordany Valdespin Mets 24 2B 98 2.2% 12.4% 15.2% 120
Donell Linares MEX 28 3B 90 2.3% 8.3% 10.2% 119
Miguel Tejada Orioles 38 SS 137 2.3% 7.5% 9.6% 118
Todd Linden Giants 32 OF 108 3.5% 13.4% 25.9% 117
Brad Snyder Astros 30 OF 37 3.3% 10.3% 20.2% 117
Miguel Sano Twins 19 3B 49 2.9% 11.3% 19.3% 116

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Hitters (Prospects)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with players who are 25 or under — i.e. something more like “prospect” age relative to the league.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Nelson Perez Cubs 24 OF 104 2.5% 18.1% 23.8% 124
Jordany Valdespin Mets 24 2B 98 2.2% 12.4% 15.2% 120
Miguel Sano Twins 19 3B 49 2.9% 11.3% 19.3% 116
Wilin Rosario Rockies 23 C 40 2.6% 11.2% 17.8% 116
Oscar Taveras Cardinals 20 OF 158 2.2% 9.0% 13.3% 114
Moises Sierra Blue Jays 23 OF 158 2.5% 10.5% 18.4% 112
Yan Gomes Blue Jays 24 OF 64 2.8% 9.0% 19.5% 108
Arismendy Alcantara Cubs 20 SS 16 2.1% 10.8% 18.1% 108
Juan Francisco Braves 25 3B 136 4.0% 8.6% 26.4% 108
Kole Calhoun Angels 24 OF 83 2.3% 11.1% 20.4% 107

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Erick Abreu Astros 28 20 0 30.1 114 28.4% 8.9% 71
Kyler Newby Orioles 27 7 7 31.0 128 27.4% 9.2% 75
Tony Pena Red Sox 31 17 0 20.2 82 26.4% 9.1% 77
Johan Yan Rangers 27 20 0 15.2 65 25.8% 9.3% 80
Samuel Deduno Twins 28 5 4 20.2 83 25.6% 9.6% 81
Dustin Richardson IND 28 17 1 16.0 66 24.3% 9.1% 83
Kelvin De La Cruz Tigers 23 11 1 15.1 68 24.0% 9.3% 84
Fabio Castro Athletics 27 11 9 38.1 166 23.5% 8.9% 85
Jose De Paula Padres 22 12 6 33.0 142 22.3% 8.8% 88
Danny Salazar Indians 22 5 3 14.0 58 22.6% 9.1% 88

SCOUT Leaderboard: Dominican Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Kyler Newby Orioles 27 7 7 31.0 128 27.4% 9.2% 75
Samuel Deduno Twins 28 5 4 20.2 83 25.6% 9.6% 81
Fabio Castro Athletics 27 11 9 38.1 166 23.5% 8.9% 85
Jose De Paula Padres 22 12 6 33.0 142 22.3% 8.8% 88
Danny Salazar Indians 22 5 3 14.0 58 22.6% 9.1% 88
Esmil Rogers Indians 26 2 2 8.0 31 21.9% 9.0% 89
Josh Outman Rockies 27 6 6 25.2 111 22.1% 9.5% 90
Aneury Rodriguez Astros 24 8 8 32.0 135 21.2% 8.5% 90
Randall Delgado Braves 22 7 6 26.2 115 21.7% 9.2% 91
Stolmy Pimentel Red Sox 22 8 6 23.0 101 21.3% 8.9% 91


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