Daily Notes, In Which Contract Crowdsourcing Begins
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Contract Crowdsourcing: An Introduction
2. Contract Crowdsourcing: Catchers
3. Today’s One Playoff Game
Contract Crowdsourcing: An Introduction
A Thing That’s a Fact
A totally true fact is that free agency this year begins a mere five days after the end of the World Series — at which point, major- and minor-league free agents may sign contracts with teams other than their former clubs.
Another Thing That’s a Fact
Another thing that’s a fact is how, despite clearly lacking all taste so far as books and films are concerned, is how the Crowds possess a certain Wisdom wherein estimating figures is concerned — like the weight of a slaughtered and dressed ox, for example.
The Only Obvious Conclusion
The only obvious conclusion one is permitted to draw from the true facts above is that the Crowds might be particularly well-suited to estimating the contract year and dollar-value amounts this offseason’s notable free agents are likely to receive.
The Other Only Obvious Conclusion
The other obvious conclusion is that, as was the case last year, that FanGraphs might be particularly well-suited to facilitating such crowdsourcing project.
Relevant Announcement
This edition of the Daily Notes marks the beginning of contract crowdsourcing for 2013′s notable free agents.
Contract Crowdsourcing: Catchers
Our contract crowdourcing project for this offseason begins with five catchers. Use the forms below to predict the years and average annual dollar values for the following players.
Player Page: Russell Martin
Player Page: Mike Napoli
Player Page: A.J. Pierzynski
Player Page: David Ross
Player Page: Kelly Shoppach
Today’s One Playoff Game
NLCS, Game 2 (1-0 STL) | St. Louis at San Francisco | 20:00 ET on FOX
STL: Chris Carpenter (17.0 IP, 114 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR)
SF: Ryan Vogelsong (189.2 IP, 106 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR)
I think people will miss the crowdsource if they don’t read the daily notes, well, daily. Might a separate post be the best way to attract attention?
Why would you want people so uninformed as to not read the Daily Notes daily be involved in such a sacred ritual such as Crowdsourcing?
That depends on whether or not you would consider the quantity of Daily Notes readers to be a “crowd” regardless of their quality.
Not to mention the whole concept of crowdsourcing implies using the entire bell curve of the crowd, including the uninformed.
That’s Daily Notist!
I think you should include a hypothetical crowd sourcing for if the Braves decline McCann’s option – along with that very question – will the Braves pick it up?
Here’s what I said:
Martin- 1yr 8 mil
Napoli- 4 yrs 56 mil (total)
Pierzynski- 2 yrs 22 mil
Ross- 2 yrs 14
Shoppach- 1yr 3 mil
it’ll be interesting to see where ross comes out
Almost certain to stay in Atlanta as the backup. He’s said before he can’t handle being an everyday player anymore.
That is a big difference between Martin and Napoli. While Napoli has a much better bat, Martin is a year younger and way better fielder. I think Napoli will sign for more, but not $48MM more.
I had Martin at two years, $16 million total, and Napoli for about the same as what Rudolph had. My main thought process was that I think that there are teams that are going to be looking at Napoli as a first baseman/DH, and not a catcher, and of all of the 1B/DH types available this winter, he’s by far the best hitter, so I think the bidding will get a little crazy for him.
Martin on the other hand, is a good glove no bat catcher that kind of has the stink of underperformance around him. Even if it’s not fair, I do think that Napoli will get significantly more money than Martin.
For whatever reason, I’m shocked that Martin is 1.5 years younger than Napoli. He seems older.
I had Martin at 1/10 and Napoli at 4/48, Ross and Pierzynski exactly same as above, and Shoppach didn’t appear for some reason but he’s boring anyway. I’m sure I’m wrong about Martin, 1/8 is probably more likely (FWIW, I’d rather sign him to either contract), he definitely does have some stink on him. But speaking of having an unfair stink, Mike Napoli was one baseball’s kings in that regard that prior to 2011. After a fairly disappointing season, do you suppose that’s completely disappeared to the point that a bunch of teams are going to go hard after him?
I don’t think Napoli ever really had a stink around him with anyone other than Mike Scioscia, so I do think that teams will be going after him. Especially when you look at the list of teams that really could use an upgrade at first, and can afford it. There are like ten teams that Napoli would be an upgrade for at first.
The Blue Jays immediately dumped him for Frank Francisco (and AA makes almost exclusively great trades), which seemed ridiculous at the time, and of course even worse in hindsight, so I figured Mike Scioscia’s irrational hatred for him must have had some pull with the rest of the league. We’ll see.
I realize that Napoli is a superior offensive player to Martin, but I just don’t see how Napoli signs for 4 yr/$56M and Martin gets 1 yr/$8M. Good offensive catchers are hard to find, but I just don’t see how Napoli gets $6M more per season on a contract that is four times as long. Martin has had an awful BABIP all season long (over 60 points less than his career numbers). If he comes back closer to that average, he doesn’t seem near as bad offensively. Given the down year, getting Martin for $500k more than he is currently getting paid seems like a very good deal for the Yankees.
Yeah, I probably underrated Martin
The point of this little corner of the inter tubes is to do the thinking so I don’t have to, if i could. Thank you to the contributors less churlish than I.
Mike Napoli: Anyone who signs Napoli to a high end contract is a fool. 2011 is an outlier given the stats and nothing more: .344 BABIP and a sudden average increase? An increase in power not shown to be sustainable? The Angels were dumb to give him up, but he’s not elite and hasn’t been elite for a while. Unfortunately, he’ll probably get quite a good offer from a team hoping to recapture 2011, though at least his bad year this year will depress it some. How does 3 years, 33 million(11 per) sound?
Russell Martin: He’s basically a younger, better Napoli. He had a down year, but at .222 BABIP? His power boost seems to be real given a two year body of work and if he can hit .240, keep close to a career .352 OBP and pound in 15-20 bombs from the catcher position he’ll provide excellent value. The only issue might be splits. I say 4 years, 46 million, so about 12 mil per. Could see more cash from being a catcher.
A.J. Pierzynski: A.J. is a 35 year old catcher, which works against him. It doesn’t take a sabermetric inclined team to know he struck out a lot more and that a sudden burst of power from someone 35 years old is unlikely to be sustainable. And while it doesn’t change his on field performance, baseball GMs will take note of the fact that he was rated most hated MLB player by, well, MLB players, though those are always flaky. I think his increase in performance leads to a 2 year, 18 mil deal(9 mil per) from the White Sox, which he takes.
David Ross: Ross has said he doesn’t want to start and the Braves want a nice backup catcher given McCann’s shakiness this year. David Ross is considered to be a good clubhouse presence and has always been an excellent backup man. I say they overpay and go for around 2 years/16 mil(8 per) for security.
Kelly Shoppach: Has Shoppach ever been good? Who is going to pay much for this guy? 1 year, 4 mil.