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Daily Notes, In Which Evan Gattis Is Honored

Posted By Carson Cistulli On September 13, 2012 @ 10:43 am In Daily Notes | 6 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding the Southern League, Its Regular Season
The Southern League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

Top Batters of the Southern League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Southern League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Andy Gonzalez Brewers (AA) 30 171 2.4% 18.9% 14.0% 147
Marc Krauss Diamondbacks (AA) 24 433 3.5% 16.9% 21.0% 139
Alfredo Marte Diamondbacks (AA) 23 446 4.5% 7.6% 16.1% 134
Rich Poythress Mariners (AA) 24 357 1.7% 14.0% 9.2% 133
Evan Gattis Braves (AA) 25 207 3.5% 9.7% 14.0% 133
Cole Figueroa Rays (AA) 25 105 2.1% 13.2% 11.8% 131
Andy Wilkins White Sox (AA) 23 502 3.4% 12.5% 18.7% 130
Matt Davidson Diamondbacks (AA) 21 575 4.0% 12.0% 21.9% 129
Kyle Russell Dodgers (AA) 26 277 3.8% 14.8% 24.9% 129
Hunter Morris Brewers (AA) 23 571 4.9% 7.0% 20.5% 128

Top Batters of the Southern League (Aged 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Southern League who might still, because of their age relative to the level, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Alfredo Marte Diamondbacks (AA) 23 446 4.5% 7.6% 16.1% 134
Andy Wilkins White Sox (AA) 23 502 3.4% 12.5% 18.7% 130
Matt Davidson Diamondbacks (AA) 21 575 4.0% 12.0% 21.9% 129
Hunter Morris Brewers (AA) 23 571 4.9% 7.0% 20.5% 128
Stefen Romero Mariners (AA) 23 240 4.3% 5.8% 15.4% 128
Jake Smolinski Marlins (AA) 23 500 1.4% 15.6% 14.8% 123
Michael Burgess Cubs (AA) 23 381 2.6% 11.8% 16.5% 123
Brad Miller Mariners (AA) 22 170 2.1% 12.5% 15.3% 121
Andrelton Simmons Braves (AA) 22 203 1.6% 9.9% 9.9% 118
Johermyn Chavez Mariners (AA) 23 288 2.7% 12.2% 21.5% 115

Top Pitchers of the Southern League (Overall)
Here are the top-10 pitchers of the Double-A Southern League, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Carter Capps Mariners (AA) 21 49.0 199 35.7% 8.5% 46
Donnie Joseph Reds (AA) 24 30.1 112 35.6% 9.3% 49
A.J. Ramos Marlins (AA) 25 68.2 261 34.1% 9.0% 53
Matt Gorgen Diamondbacks (AA) 25 35.0 149 32.8% 10.5% 61
Kirby Yates Rays (AA) 25 68.0 285 33.0% 11.9% 65
Alberto Cabrera Cubs (AA) 23 35.2 149 30.1% 9.0% 65
Steven Ames Dodgers (AA) 24 63.1 250 28.8% 7.8% 65
Evan Reed Marlins (AA) 26 34.2 137 30.4% 9.4% 66
Dan Remenowsky White Sox (AA) 26 46.0 175 30.9% 10.7% 68
Ryan Buchter Braves (AA) 25 41.1 165 30.3% 10.4% 69

Top Pitchers of the Southern League (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Double-A Southern League who made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.


Player Team Age IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Trevor Bauer Diamondbacks (AA) 21 48.1 201 29.9% 11.0% 72
Anthony Cingrani Reds (AA) 22 89.1 350 28.9% 10.7% 74
Matthew Magill Dodgers (AA) 22 146.1 623 27.0% 9.8% 77
Danny Hultzen Mariners (AA) 22 75.1 290 27.2% 10.5% 79
Chase Anderson Diamondbacks (AA) 24 104.0 422 23.0% 6.8% 81
Tyler Skaggs Diamondbacks (AA) 20 69.2 290 24.5% 8.5% 81
Tyler Thornburg Brewers (AA) 23 75.0 307 23.1% 8.7% 86
Hiram Burgos Brewers (AA) 24 83.1 331 23.3% 9.0% 87
Alex Colome Rays (AA) 23 75.0 313 24.0% 10.4% 89
Andre Rienzo White Sox (AA) 24 71.2 307 23.5% 10.4% 90

Three Notable Performances
• Braves prospect Evan Gattis was neither (a) the very top hitter in the Southern League nor, at 25, (b) among the younger players in the league. That said, his development path has been decidedly unorthodox — Gattis lived a legitimately itinerant life for ca. four years — and he’s been an unmitigated offensive success over the last two-plus years in the minors. He played more outfield than catcher at Double-A Mississippi.
• Arizona’s Matt Davidson, who doesn’t turn 22 until March, improved upon his 2011 season in almost every way: his home-run rate increased, his walk rate increased, and his strikeout rate decreased — all while moving up a level (and out of the very hitter-friendly California League). The mid-season acquisition of Chris Johnson by the Diamondbacks perhaps means his arrival in the majors might be delayed, but he appears to be an exciting talent nonetheless.
• Reds left-hander Anthony Cingrani recently made his major-league debut after dominating both the Southern League (89.1 IP, 28.9% K, 11.1%) and High-A California League (56.2 IP, 32.3% K, 5.9% BB) — all in a starting capacity. The fastball doesn’t appear to be dominant (around 91 mph, looks like), but he also managed to post an excellent line in his first and aforementioned major-league appearance. To wit: 3.0 IP, 10 TBF, 5 K, 0 BB, 3 GB on 5 batted-balls (60.0% GB), 0.75 xFIP.

Other SCOUT Leaderboards
International League (Triple-A)
Pacific Coast League (Triple-A)
Eastern League (Double-A)
Texas League (Double-A)
California, Carolina, and Florida State Leagues Combined (High-A)
Midwest and Sally Leagues Combined (Class-A)
New York-Penn and Northwest Leagues Combined (Low-A)
Appalachian, Arizona, Gulf Coast, and Pioneer Leagues Combined (Rookie)

Today’s Notable Games
Oakland at Los Angeles AL | 15:35 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Brett Anderson, who starts for Oakland today, has been bananas since returning from Tommy John surgery in August. His line in four starts: 26.0 IP, 19.8% K, 3.1% BB, 63.0% GB, 2.57 SIERA, 67 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Detroit at Chicago AL | 20:10 ET
After the Tigers’ 8-6 win on Wednesday night in Chicago (box), they stand now only a single game behind the White Sox in the AL Central. Playoff odds, per Cool Standings: Chicago, 62.1%; Detroit, 41.0. Other note: tonight’s starters, Justin Verlander and Chris Sale, are first and third in pitcher WAR, respectively, in the American League.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.0.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Jeremy Hellickson TB 3 5 5 3 5 BAL Wei-Yin Chen 12:35
Brett Anderson OAK 10 7 7 8 4 LAA Jered Weaver 15:35
Felix Hernandez SEA 9 4 4 5 4 TOR Henders. Alvarez 19:07
Phil Hughes NYA 5 6 5 5 7 BOS Felix Doubront 19:10
Zach McAllister CLE 6 2 4 7 6 TEX Derek Holland 20:05
Tyler Cloyd* PHI 6 4 3 4 5 HOU Lucas Harrell 20:05
Justin Verlander DET 9 4 9 5 10 CHA Chris Sale 20:10
Luis Mendoza KC 2 8 1 5 3 MIN Liam Hendriks 20:10
Lance Lynn STL 7 9 7 1 5 LAN Josh Beckett 22:10

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


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