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Daily Notes, Incl. Facts About Billy Hamilton’s Future

Posted By Carson Cistulli On November 6, 2012 @ 10:00 am In Daily Notes | 2 Comments

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Crowdsourcing Results: Billy Hamilton’s Whole Career
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Video: Most or All of Alex Torres’s Repertoire

Crowdsourcing Results: Billy Hamilton’s Whole Career
Reds prospect Billy Hamilton has earned considerable attention from prospect analysts for possessing what is likely generational footspeed. At the same time, he’s showed little power and is a defensive uncertainty, having just converted to center field from shortstop.

A curious sort of person might ask, “What will Hamilton’s career look like, ultimately?”

In yesterday’s edition of the Notes, I asked readers to consider that very question, providing a form that would allow them (i.e. those same readers) to project Billy Hamilton’s future career WAR. Below are the results of that effort, as of last night.

56.3%: 11-25 WAR
23.1%: 1-10 WAR
16.9%: 26-50 WAR
02.9%: Above 50 WAR
00.8%: Zero WAR or Below

And here’s a bar graph with that same information:

SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average. (Players listed with most recent team in 2012. Click here for more on SCOUT.)


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
C.J. Retherford Dodgers 26 3B 89 3.2% 9.3% 13.4% 121
Scott Van Slyke Dodgers 25 1B 70 4.0% 9.7% 19.7% 119
Darwin Perez Angels 22 SS 62 2.7% 13.6% 18.7% 118
Henry Wrigley Rays 25 OF 86 3.9% 7.9% 18.4% 115
Gustavo Molina Yankees 30 C 55 3.5% 8.4% 16.9% 114
Darin Ruf Phillies 25 1B 81 4.6% 10.2% 26.4% 114
Justin Henry Tigers 27 OF 82 1.6% 12.6% 12.2% 114
Carlos Maldonado Nationals 31 C 59 3.8% 10.2% 21.7% 114
Evan Gattis Braves 25 C 85 3.2% 8.0% 15.2% 114
Carlos Rivero Nationals 24 3B 94 2.8% 10.1% 16.1% 113

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters (Slightly Younger)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with players who were 26 or under in 2012 — i.e. more slightly resembling “prospects” than other players in the VWL.


Player Team Age Pos PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
C.J. Retherford Dodgers 26 3B 89 3.2% 9.3% 13.4% 121
Scott Van Slyke Dodgers 25 1B 70 4.0% 9.7% 19.7% 119
Darwin Perez Angels 22 SS 62 2.7% 13.6% 18.7% 118
Henry Wrigley Rays 25 OF 86 3.9% 7.9% 18.4% 115
Darin Ruf Phillies 25 1B 81 4.6% 10.2% 26.4% 114
Evan Gattis Braves 25 C 85 3.2% 8.0% 15.2% 114
Carlos Rivero Nationals 24 3B 94 2.8% 10.1% 16.1% 113
Gorkys Hernandez Marlins 24 CF 78 2.3% 12.3% 17.4% 111
Luis Valbuena Cubs 26 2B 45 1.9% 12.9% 16.7% 109
Daniel Mayora Giants 26 3B 48 2.2% 12.3% 17.7% 109

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Alex Torres Rays 24 5 5 21.1 87 33.4% 9.2% 58
Seth Etherton N/A 35 4 4 18.1 77 24.5% 8.3% 79
Josh Schmidt Marlins 29 5 5 24.2 103 23.6% 9.5% 85
Cesar Jimenez Mariners 27 7 0 6.1 24 22.1% 8.8% 87
Jarrett Grube Mariners 30 4 4 16.1 69 22.8% 9.7% 87
Edgmer Escalona Rockies 25 8 0 8.0 35 21.5% 9.4% 90
Vidal Nuno Yankees 24 6 0 9.2 32 20.6% 8.7% 91
Yoanner Negrin MEX 28 5 5 22.2 95 20.5% 8.7% 91
Victor Garate Brewers 27 4 4 18.2 76 20.7% 9.1% 91
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Nationals 27 3 2 10.2 39 20.4% 8.8% 91

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.


Player Team Age G GS IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Alex Torres Rays 24 5 5 21.1 87 33.4% 9.2% 58
Seth Etherton N/A 35 4 4 18.1 77 24.5% 8.3% 79
Josh Schmidt Marlins 29 5 5 24.2 103 23.6% 9.5% 85
Jarrett Grube Mariners 30 4 4 16.1 69 22.8% 9.7% 87
Yoanner Negrin MEX 28 5 5 22.2 95 20.5% 8.7% 91
Victor Garate Brewers 27 4 4 18.2 76 20.7% 9.1% 91
Austin Bibens-Dirkx Nationals 27 3 2 10.2 39 20.4% 8.8% 91
Eric Berger Indians 26 4 4 19.1 81 19.4% 8.2% 93
Chris Jakubauskas Blue Jays 33 3 2 8.1 38 19.1% 9.1% 96
Donovan Hand Brewers 26 5 5 24.1 105 18.6% 8.7% 96

Video: Most or All of Alex Torres’s Repertoire
Tampa Bay left-handed pitching prospect Alex Torres is currently first — by kinda a lot — among Venezuelan Winter League pitchers on the SCOUT leaderboard. Here’s video of Torres in a relief appearance for the Rays from late September of 2011.

Of note in what follows is Torres’s changeup, a pitch that appears at the following marks: 0:10, 0:31, 0:41, and 0:59. The fastballs at 0:17 and 0:25 are also great and will suffice.


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