- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

Daily Notes: Including Mostly Useful Nick Tepesch Coverage

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
2. Potentially Useful Footage: Nick Tepesch’s Breaking Ball
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Atlanta at Miami | 19:10 ET
One might suppose that, with Freddie Freeman having recently been placed on the disabled list, that very pleasing and slightly old rookie Evan Gattis would get starts at first base against left-handers (like Miami’s starter for tonight, for example, Wade LeBlanc). This does not appear to be the case, unfortunately — a fact which the author learned only after writing the majority of this brief preview, but which (despite the demands of common sense) hasn’t compelled that same author just to delete the earlier part of the entry.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Tampa Bay at Texas | 20:05 ET
Texas right-hander Nick Tepesch, 24, makes his major-league debut. For those curious about this sort of thing, here’s where Tepesch ranked on Marc Hulet’s preseason top-15 prospect list for the Rangers: N/A. And where he ranked among John Sickels’ top-20 prospect list for the Rangers: N/A. And among Baseball America’s top-10 list for the Rangers: N/A. Notably, Tepesch is recognized by Baseball America as having both the best control and slider in the Texas system — video of the latter of which can be found below.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Houston at Seattle | 22:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
After posting a 5.1 WAR in 2007 during his last season as an Oriole, left-hander Erik Bedard has compiled nearly that same amount of wins in the five-plus years since. Tonight, he makes his first start of 2013, following an entirely competent and extended relief appearance on two Sundays ago against Texas (box). Bedard faces right-handed rookie Brandon Maurer, who struggled in his major-league debut.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

Potentially Useful Footage: Nick Tepesch’s Breaking Ball
While, as noted above, Baseball America named Texas right-handed prospect (and Tuesday starter) Nick Tepesch‘s slider as the best in the Rangers system, Tepesch himself refers only to a cutter and curveball so far as breaking pitches are concerned. Of course, these designations are typically quite fluid: a cutter and slider can look quite similar, as can a slider and curve.

In any case, some brief inspection of video from Tepesch’s last four or five starts from 2012 has produced visual evidence of at least one of Tepesch’s breaking pitches — one which, on account of the vertical movement, might most reasonably be called a curveball.

In this case, to San Diego prospect Jonathan Galvez:

Tepesch Curve or Slider Galvez

And to other San Diego prospect Jeremy Rodriguez:

Tepesch Curve or Slider J Rodriguez

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very popular and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will be available at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.

Game Teams Starters Line Win%
18:40 Los Angeles Dodgers Josh Beckett 1.70 57.5%
ET San Diego Padres Clayton Richard 2.31 42.5%
19:05 New York Mets Dillon Gee 2.60 37.7%
ET Philadelphia Phillies Cliff Lee 1.58 62.3%
19:10 Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen 1.59 61.7%
ET Miami Marlins Wade LeBlanc 2.56 38.3%
20:05 Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 1.99 49.3%
ET Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 1.94 50.7%
20:15 Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo 2.06 47.6%
ET St. Louis Cardinals Lance Lynn 1.87 52.4%
21:40 Pittsburgh Pirates James McDonald 2.32 42.3%
ET Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy 1.70 57.7%
22:15 Colorado Rockies Juan Nicasio 2.38 41.2%
ET San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum 1.67 58.8%
13:05 Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow 2.12 46.3%
ET Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez 1.83 53.7%
19:05 New York Yankees Andy Pettitte 1.86 52.9%
ET Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco 2.08 47.1%
20:05 Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez 2.33 42.1%
ET Texas Rangers Nick Tepesch 1.69 57.9%
20:10 Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 2.38 41.2%
ET Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie 1.67 58.8%
22:05 Oakland Athletics Jarrod Parker 2.41 40.7%
ET LAA Angels C.J. Wilson 1.65 59.3%
22:10 Houston Astros Erik Bedard 2.29 42.8%
ET Seattle Mariners Brandon Maurer 1.71 57.2%
19:05 Chicago White Sox Jake Peavy 2.46 39.8%
ET Washington Nationals Gio Gonzalez 1.63 60.2%