Daily Notes: Kevin Gausman Preparedness Manual

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Baltimore at Toronto, 19:07pm ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Baltimore at Toronto, 19:07pm ET
Regarding This Game, Who’s Starting It for Baltimore
Starting this game for Baltimore, in terms of a pitcher, is Compelling Baseball Prospect Kevin Gausman. The appearance will mark Gausman’s first in the majors.

Regarding Gausman, Some Potentially Useful Information
Originally drafted by, but ultimately refusing to sign with, the Dodgers in 2010, Gausman was ultimately taken by the Orioles fourth overall in last season’s draft out of LSU — behind, that is, only Carlos Correa (Astros), Byron Buxton (Twins), and Mike Zunino (Mariners).

Regarding Gausman, His Prospect Status
Prior to the season, Gausman predictably appeared on all the notable top-100 prospect lists. Here are some examples of where, specifically:

Baseball America: 26th
Baseball Prospectus: 13th
Bullpen Banter: 15th
FanGraphs: 15th
John Sickels: 23rd
Keith Law: 26th

Regarding Gausman, His Performance
In 13 minor-league starts between last season (at Low-A Aberdeen and High-A Frederick) and this one (at Double-A Bowie), Gausman has posted the following line: 61.1 IP, 9.1 K/9, 0.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9.

Regarding Gausman, His Projection
Gausman’s rest-of-season projection according to Steamer is as follows: 63.0 IP, 8.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.93 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 0.8 WAR.

Gausman’s Repertoire: Fastball
Reports, like J.D. Sussman’s very recent one that appeared in these electronic pages, generally place Gausman’s fastball in the 96-98 mph range with good movement.

Here’s an example of Gausman’s fastball from this spring, against Boston’s Brock Holt:

Gausman Holt 3 FA Called

Gausman’s Repertoire: Slider
Again according to Sussman, there were questions with regard to Gausman’s breaking ball out of college — questions which he seems to be answering rather well. Gausman throws his slider in the 82-84 mph range, generally.

Here’s an example of it, again from this spring, this time to elicit a swinging strike from Jonny Gomes:

Gausman Gomes SL SS

Gausman’s Repertoire: Changeup
Reports of Gausman’s changeup are almost entirely gushing. Like the slider, he throws it in the 82-84 mph — although with that pitch’s signature fade and depth.

Here’s an example of the pitch to Jackie Bradley from this spring:

Gausman Bradley CH SS

And that same pitch in slow motion, for no purpose other than the reader’s Continued Amusement:

Gausman Bradley CH SS Slow

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast
Per the results of our crowdsourcing project from the 2011-2012 offseason, FanGraphs readers prefer Toronto Radio, probably (link).

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Minnesota at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Scott Diamond (39.2 IP, 113 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (38.0 IP, 84 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR). Here’s Rick Porcello’s career strikeout rate: 13.1%. Here’s his strikeout rate this season: 17.0%. And, finally, here’s his strikeout rate over his last four starts (25.0 IP): 25.0%.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Edwin Jackson CHN 5 5 5 7 3 PIT Jeanmar Gomez* 12:35
Kevin Gausman* BAL 12 7 7 4 2 TOR Brandon Morrow 19:07
Scott Diamond MIN 2 3 5 8 8 DET Rick Porcello 19:08
Zach McAllister CLE 4 9 6 8 6 BOS Ryan Dempster 19:10
Joe Blanton LAA 5 5 6 7 7 KC Ervin Santana 20:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



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Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Pat G
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Pat G
3 years 4 months ago

12 NERD, i dont know why this amuses me

Dennis
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Dennis
3 years 4 months ago

It amused me too. Does that make you feel better?

Eminor3rd
Member
Eminor3rd
3 years 4 months ago

Holy shit

KS
Guest
KS
3 years 4 months ago

I live in Baltimore, do you know how I can get Toronto radio? That way, I can turn off the sound on the TV and not have to hear Gary Thorne drone on his malapropisms, terrible jokes and factual mistakes all night.

Garold
Guest
Garold
3 years 4 months ago

I can’t answer your question, but Toronto radio has taken a step backwards this year since Alan Ashby went to Houston TV and they added Jack Morris to replace him.

Marc
Guest
Marc
3 years 4 months ago

Yup, all the Baseball commentators in Toronto are now generally unenjoyable

jevant
Member
jevant
3 years 4 months ago

It’s a pretty sad commentary on the TV team that the radio team, bad as it is, is still far superior to Buck-Pat.

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 4 months ago

Why they didn’t hire Dirk Hayhurst is beyond me. His EW/9 (Erudite Words per 9 Innings) was possibly unparalleled in the annals of commentatorland.

dof123
Guest
dof123
3 years 4 months ago

yeah, jack morris is really awful. i used to love the blue jays broadcasts when i’d catch them on the internet or XM

jevant
Member
jevant
3 years 4 months ago

A pretty large step back. Morris is actually kinda funny because he’s pretty terrible, so there’s that…

revolu
Guest
revolu
3 years 4 months ago

Fan590 is the toronto radio station, you can probably get an online stream

Jaker
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Jaker
3 years 4 months ago

Online streams won’t play MLB games (they all switch to prior programming). Buy the radio package for MLB.tv. It’s not too expensive. I think the iPad or iPhone app is like $13.

cass
Guest
cass
3 years 4 months ago

To get any radio feed, you need to sign up for MLB GameDay Audio on mlb.com unless you already have mlb.tv. The games are blacked out on the web feeds of radio stations. It’s pretty cheap, though – just 20 bucks for an entire year. And it’s included with mlb.tv if you have that.

mortimer
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mortimer
3 years 4 months ago

Joe & Fred on Baltimore radio aren’t bad. WBAL radio, as I recall: 1090 AM.

GiveEmTheBird
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GiveEmTheBird
3 years 4 months ago

Except they check the ‘out of town scoreboard’ about 240 times during the game. They barely even describe what’s happening on the field much less get into any if the interesting discussions that could be had about the Os this year.

kozilla
Member
kozilla
3 years 4 months ago

If you live in Baltimore then you won’t be able to listen to a different broadcast through MLB.tv due to blackout restrictions. For all games outside your local region you can choose home or away broadcasts. There are no such restrictions for the MLB radio functions but of course it wouldn’t be synced to any video.

Birdlander
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Birdlander
3 years 4 months ago

Interesting.

12 is Gausman’s NERD score.

It also accurately measures how wrong you are, on a scale of 1-10, about 3DG (Three Drink Gary).

IZZY2112
Member
IZZY2112
3 years 4 months ago

Interesting to see how Gausman would rank if we were redoing top prospect lists. Personally, I think I’d rank him behind Fernandez (Who is 1 IP away from no longer qualifying), Walker, Bradley, Wheeler, and maybe Bundy. Tough to rank Bundy.

Brazen Reader
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Wait, ranking by what measure? This is the very proprietary watchability (NERD) score zone. Bundy, being young, handsome and stout, is clearly #1.

tz
Guest
tz
3 years 4 months ago

His fastball looks a bit like vintage Ubaldo Jimenez. Bradley Jr. must have been looking for it when the changeup was coming; he had no chance, even trying to channel his inner Adrian Beltre.

Brazen Reader
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Vintage Ubaldo Jimenez? I don’t know what you drink, but that metaphor doesn’t work to describe someone who aged their fastball in only about 3 months of charred excellence.

Maybe try, “His fastball looks a bit like white dog Ubaldo Jimenez.”?

Gregory
Member
Gregory
3 years 4 months ago

I don’t think Johnny Gomes has any questions about Gausman’s slider.

All Balls No Brains
Guest
All Balls No Brains
3 years 4 months ago

9.1 K/9 rather than just a pesky 9.1 Ks.

All Balls No Brains
Guest
All Balls No Brains
3 years 4 months ago

Never mind. I’m stupid and can’t read.

Brian Roberts
Guest
Brian Roberts
3 years 4 months ago

I have the #1 waiver pick in my league, which I’m waiting to use on a top prospect. I’m in no hurry, but just want to grab a guy with the most long term impact (it’s a points based keeper league).

I was waiting for Myers, but he’s scuffling, Taveras, but he has nowhere to play until someone gets hurt, or Cole. Gausman looks like he has great stuff, so now I’m not sure what to do.

Do I take Gausman (and then go to #12 waiver) or hold out for a bigger potential prospect? I guess I could wait and see how he does today… He won’t even be available until tomorrow, and then will be on waivers for 2 days.

Oh yeah, about 1/2 of the top 10 prospects (MLB) are already avail. and rostered, so my choices are Taveras, Myers, Walker, and Cole, but none will be available until they get called up.

thx!

Gregory
Member
Gregory
3 years 4 months ago

I don’t think your decision to pick him up should be based on how he pitches today.

To me it depends on how competitive you are now. Gausman’s more likely to help you this season than any of the others IMO.

Brian Roberts
Guest
Brian Roberts
3 years 4 months ago

Myers K rate has me a bit scared (but I like his walks, which are great in my league).

for the P’s, Walker’s and Cole’s BB rates have me scared as well. Gausman is looking better and better as I check his stats.

Brian Roberts
Guest
Brian Roberts
3 years 4 months ago

Yeah, you’re probably right. What I meant was, if he gets shelled, he might clear waivers and I could pick him up as a FA in a few days… Or if he’s lights out, that will show he’s ready. If it’s something in between, then I’m back to my tough choice.

I’m in a H2H league, had a rough start but seem to be turning it around. Have a shot at making the playoffs, I guess.

Kevin
Member
3 years 4 months ago

Make the claim for Gausman no matter how he does in his start tonight. You have no idea when any of those other guys are going to get called up. You can get more value from your waiver claim if you have the player on your roster for a longer period of time.

Gausman has the talent to be good from Day 1. Go for it. You don’t want to regret not doing it later.

cass
Guest
cass
3 years 4 months ago

Why on earth didn’t you already use your waiver pick on Burch Smith???

Ben
Guest
Ben
3 years 4 months ago

Holy shit that changeup.

Alexander Nevermind
Guest
Alexander Nevermind
3 years 4 months ago

BROCK HOLT!

jcxy
Guest
jcxy
3 years 4 months ago

STEVE HOLT!

jB4s7
Member
jB4s7
3 years 4 months ago

LESTER HOLT!

Power Bar
Guest
Power Bar
3 years 4 months ago

I can pick up one of these three for my team (we only are able to pick up players 2 times a season. Masterson, Corbin, Glausman. I have first and 4th picks via trades (12 team H2H keeper league). Thanks!

Dave
Guest
Dave
3 years 4 months ago

interesting choice! They keep saying Corbin is due for regression and I suppose that’s true (HR% most glaring). Masterson seems real, and has 890 career Major League innings already, but the K-rate is way up and the HR-rate is way down. Still, you only have to go back to 2011 for a 3.21 ERA and he’s been at 8.28 K/9 in the past. Seems like he’s using his slider much more effectively this year, and much more often. Gausman has huge potential, but wide degree of variance. If you’re competitive this year (and especially if it’s not a keeper league), go with Masterson. If you’re playing for next year, I’d vote Gausman.

Power Bar
Guest
Power Bar
3 years 4 months ago

Thanks for reaffirming my thoughts. I am 2nd in points scored and think I have a very good chance for the win so rather going with my heart and picking up a guy that will REALLY good for a long time, Glausman, I am going to pick up Masterson for the present.

Thank you much for the thoughtful comment!

Brazen Reader
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Joe Blanton has (NERD) score of 5. I love watching guys like him pitch so that sounds right, but I worry it’ll regress to his more natural ~2 (NERD) score if his 2013 Pace doesn’t regress (+16.67% over 2012) to his xPace.

xPace is more predictive of future Pace because it normalizes Blanton’s inflated WFBBTSRAOP (“waiting for batted balls to stop rolling all over the place”).

Dave
Guest
Dave
3 years 4 months ago

Am I seeing that right? Is that a knee-buckling fastball?

dominick
Guest
dominick
3 years 4 months ago

Drop Lincecum for Gausman?

Rest of staff is dominant in my 12 teamer has me at 12 pts in all but Wins: Harvey, Yu, Burnett, Hamels, Cahill, Grilli, Rivera, Bailey, Gregerson, Robertson.

STEALTH
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Thank you for the slow-mo. It was the perfect way to top off the previous three.

Nick
Guest
Nick
3 years 4 months ago

mmmmmmm gif porn!

Zach
Guest
Zach
3 years 4 months ago

Would you start Gausman tonight?

BenRevereDoesSteroids
Member
BenRevereDoesSteroids
3 years 4 months ago

Love not being able to pick Gausman in “Fangraphs: The Game” today. Maybe wouldn’t bother me if I had a decent alternative.

I Apologize For Gloating
Guest
I Apologize For Gloating
3 years 4 months ago

I just wanted to let you know that I have seats behind home plate for tonight’s game. While I will be cheering for the Blue Jays, I look forward to Gausman striking out Rasmus and Arencibia 3 times each.

My apologies for gloating. I just wanted to share this with someone, and most people I know won’t know who Gausman is, or care that his NERD score is 12.

Brazen Reader
Guest
3 years 4 months ago

Where your Fangraphs shirt. You have one, right? RIGHT?

siggian
Guest
siggian
3 years 4 months ago

Arencibia gloats at your gloating.

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