Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
Featured Game: Kansas City at Chicago AL, 20:10 ET
Of Particular Note Regarding This Game
Of particular note regarding this game is that right-hander Felipe Paulino, 28, is starting it for the Royals.
Regarding Paulino, His Season Debut
Paulino made his season debut against the Yankees last Saturday after missing the first month of the season with a strained forearm — and he was excellent. Line: 6.0 IP, 23 TBF, 6 K, 2 BB, 8 GB on 15 batted-balls (53.3%), 2.40 xFIP.
Regarding Paulino, His Career So Far
For his career so far (353.2 IP, most of them since 2009), Paulino has posted basically average defense-independent numbers (98 xFIP-, 101 FIP-), with slightly above-average strikeout rates and slightly below-average walk rates.
Regarding Paulino, His Career So Far, Part II
Over his career, Paulino has been decidedly less successful in terms of overall run prevention, having posted an ERA that’s 27% worse than league average and a full run worse than his FIP over that same time (5.19 ERA, 4.14 FIP).
Regarding Paulino, The Causes of His ERA/FIP Split
The reasons for the large split between Paulino’s ERA and FIP are what you’d expect: BABIP (.339 career) and a below-average strand rate (66.5%).
Regarding Paulino, His Stuff
Paulino’s stuff is excellent: four-seamer at about 95 mph, two-seamer at about the same, slider at 87, changeup at about 87, and then a slower curve. The slider has been Paulino’s best pitch, worth 19.0 runs above average over the course of his career (+1.22 per 100 thrown).
A Quick Note on Eric Hosmer, What He Should Be Hitting
Eric Hosmer has posted a 65 wRC+ and -0.4 WAR so far through 127 plate appearances. That’s with only a .168 BABIP, however. Per Bradley Woodrum’s Should Hit calculator, Hosmer would have a 119 wRC+, were he to have recorded his career .287 BABIP — and a 132 wRC+ were he to’ve posted the .314 BABIP he had last season.
Pitching for Chicago
Pitching for Chicago tonight is Gavin Floyd (38.2 IP, 89 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR).
Lightly Annotated Video: Felipe Paulino’s Season Debut
Here’s footage from Felipe Paulino’s first start of the season, against New York.
The pitches you’ll see, in order: changeup* (0:11), slider (0:17), slider (0:24), slider (I think, 0:28), changeup (0:37), slider (0:46), fastball at 97 mph (0:59).
*The announcer calls it a “breaking ball,” but it certainly appears to have changeup movement.
Other Notable Games
Houston at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
The author highly recommends the Houston Astros broadcast team of Bill Brown and Jim Deshaies. Consider this recently crafted Jim Deshaies Soundboard, for example.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston.
Atlanta at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
As of Thursday, these are the two best offenses in the National League.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Neither, Really.
Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.9.
Regard, a magnificent and sortable table:
|Bud Norris||HOU||6||6||5||2||5||PIT||James McDonald||19:05|
|Clayton Richard||SD||4||5||5||3||6||PHI||Vance Worley||19:05|
|Felix Hernandez||SEA||7||4||5||7||3||NYA||Hiroki Kuroda||19:05|
|Jeremy Hellickson||TB||1||7||3||5||3||BAL||Dana Eveland*||19:05|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||CLE||0||4||2||5||2||BOS||Clay Buchholz||19:10|
|Johan Santana||NYN||5||2||4||4||4||MIA||Mark Buehrle||19:10|
|Gio Gonzalez||WAS||9||1||6||4||5||CIN||Mike Leake||19:10|
|C.J. Wilson||LAA||5||2||6||10||7||TEX||Yu Darvish||20:05|
|Matt Garza||CHN||9||2||5||6||1||MIL||Randy Wolf||20:10|
|Felipe Paulino*||KC||9||8||7||5||5||CHA||Gavin Floyd||20:10|
|Kyle Drabek||TOR||4||6||4||3||3||MIN||Nick Blackburn||20:10|
|Mike Minor||ATL||7||8||7||10||5||STL||Jaime Garcia||20:15|
|Mad. Bumgarner||SF||5||4||5||6||5||AZ||Patrick Corbin*||21:40|
|Rick Porcello||DET||8||2||5||3||3||OAK||Tommy Milone||22:05|
|Jamie Moyer||COL||2||8||4||6||5||LAN||Chris Capuano||22:10|