Daily Notes: RECK Leaders So Far This Season

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Reckless Power (RECK) Leaderboards
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Reckless Power (RECK) Leaderboards
On Reckless Power, or RECK
Last year in these Notes, the author submitted for the readership’s consideration a stat that doesn’t actually exist, but is nevertheless called Reckless Power — or RECK, for short. It’s calculated by dividing Isolated Power by Isolated Patience — or, stated differently, (SLG – AVG) / (OBP – AVG). Essentially, it’s designed to identify players whose power far outstrips their patience. The results appear to approximate the Richter Scale, such that less than 2.0 is barely felt, 5.0 is moderate, and 9.0-and-up happens less than every 10 years and is totally destructive.

RECK Leaders: Qualified MLB Hitters
Here are the major-league RECK leaders so far in 2013:

Rank Name Team PA AVG OBP SLG RECK
1 J.P. Arencibia Blue Jays 236 .211 .233 .417 9.4
2 Adam Jones Orioles 294 .298 .323 .514 8.6
3 Domonic Brown Phillies 256 .282 .324 .576 7.0
4 Jeff Keppinger White Sox 209 .229 .234 .263 6.8
5 Carlos Gomez Brewers 257 .326 .366 .594 6.7
6 Carlos Beltran Cardinals 241 .307 .340 .518 6.4
7 Matt Dominguez Astros 242 .227 .253 .389 6.2
8 Jean Segura Brewers 273 .339 .374 .545 5.9
9 Ian Desmond Nationals 259 .293 .326 .483 5.8
10 Wilin Rosario Rockies 210 .239 .271 .418 5.6

RECK Laggards: Qualified MLB Hitters
Here are the qualified major-league batters with the lowest RECK figures so far:

Rank Name Team PA AVG OBP SLG RECK
1 Placido Polanco Marlins 224 .227 .286 .256 0.5
2 Elvis Andrus Rangers 293 .254 .309 .303 0.9
3 Ruben Tejada Mets 204 .209 .267 .262 0.9
4 Miguel Montero Diamondbacks 243 .218 .300 .294 0.9
5 Ben Revere Phillies 223 .266 .306 .304 1.0
6 Juan Pierre Marlins 227 .245 .296 .298 1.0
7 Michael Young Phillies 241 .278 .353 .361 1.1
8 Billy Butler Royals 256 .273 .383 .403 1.2
9 Michael Brantley Indians 252 .289 .349 .360 1.2
10 Ike Davis Mets 207 .161 .242 .258 1.2

RECK Leaderboards: Qualified MiLB Hitters
And here are the qualified minor-league* RECK leaders so far in 2013:

Rank Name Team Age PA AVG OBP SLG RECK
1 Gustavo Pierre Blue Jays (A) 21 230 .304 .309 .454 30.0
2 Jose Castillo Mexican (AAA) 32 275 .374 .404 .717 11.4
3 Chris Rahl Nationals (AAA) 29 180 .264 .277 .402 10.6
4 Juan Silverio Reds (A+) 22 251 .273 .289 .405 8.3
5 Jose Castaneda Mexican (AAA) 28 248 .257 .275 .405 8.2
6 Isaac Galloway Marlins (A+) 23 266 .302 .322 .460 7.9
7 Elmer Reyes Braves (A+) 22 217 .309 .324 .425 7.7
8 Rubi Silva Cubs (AA) 24 234 .262 .291 .484 7.7
9 Ronny Rodriguez Indians (AA) 21 252 .276 .297 .431 7.4
10 Zach Walters Nationals (AAA) 23 241 .211 .242 .439 7.4

*Excluding Rookie League seasons that have basically just begun.

Three Brief Comments
• It would be fair to say, were one compelled to do so, that Toronto catcher J.P. Arencibia has exhibited the most reckless power so far this season among qualified major-league hitters, having hit 12 home runs while posting a 6:76 walk-to-strikeout ratio in his 236 plate appearances.

• That same Blue Jays organization also appears to have produced the minor-league hitter to have demonstrated the most reckless power, 21-year-old third baseman Gustavo Pierre in the Class-A Midwest League. Here’s a fact about Pierre: he was signed for probably $0.7 million in 2008. And another one: Pierre has recorded a 1:59 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and five home runs, in his 230 plate appearances. And a third: he’s currently in the middle of his third consecutive Midwest League season.

• It should, of course, be noted that there has been absolutely no attempt to adjust the minor-league numbers for age relative to level or park effects.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
St. Louis at Miami | 19:10 ET
Jake Westbrook (39.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR) faces Jose Fernandez (65.1 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR). With regard to the (rather low) NERD score for the Cardinals, it should be noted that they are presently 24th overall in fielding runs and second-to-last in the majors as a team in runs produced from baserunning. It should also be noted that, despite their low Team NERD score, that most of their games are rated quite highly overall because of their excellent starting rotation.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 4.9.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Ryan Dempster BOS 5 9 6 8 5 BAL Chris Tillman 19:05
Stephen Fife* LAN 7 3 5 6 3 PIT Jeff Locke 19:05
Gio Gonzalez WAS 6 1 6 7 7 CLE Just. Masterson 19:05
Edwin Jackson CHN 6 5 6 6 6 NYN Shaun Marcum 19:10
Luis Mendoza KC 2 4 4 9 3 TB Matt Moore 19:10
Kyle Lohse MIL 5 4 4 4 4 CIN Bronson Arroyo 19:10
Jake Westbrook STL 1 3 5 0 10 MIA Jose Fernandez 19:10
Mad. Bumgarner SF 7 6 6 8 5 ATL Kris Medlen 19:30
Mark Buehrle TOR 3 6 5 3 6 TEX Justin Grimm 20:05
Chris Sale CHA 9 0 4 3 0 HOU Erik Bedard 20:10
Rick Porcello DET 9 7 6 3 3 MIN Scott Diamond 20:10
Kyle Kendrick PHI 3 2 4 10 4 COL Juan Nicasio 20:40
Andy Pettitte NYA 5 4 5 6 4 LAA C.J. Wilson 22:05
Joe Saunders SEA 2 4 4 7 5 OAK Tommy Milone 22:05
Trevor Cahill AZ 4 3 4 8 4 SD Eric Stults 22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Jacob the OG
Guest
Jacob the OG
3 years 14 days ago

So for lack of a better term it measures how much a player sells out for power?

UdUpLaYeR
Member
UdUpLaYeR
3 years 14 days ago

There’s a better “term”: Reckless Power.

DavidJ
Member
DavidJ
3 years 14 days ago

I wonder if it should be Isolated Power minus Isolated Patience, rather than divided by. Jeff Keppinger, with a .034 ISO, is only on this list because he never walks, not because he’s selling out for power.

DavidJ
Member
DavidJ
3 years 14 days ago

Actually an even better way to do this might be simply: HR/PA minus BB/PA.

bgburek
Member
bgburek
3 years 13 days ago

Extra base hits should count too

MikeS
Guest
MikeS
3 years 14 days ago

If Jeff Keppinger and his 0.034 ISO are number four, your metric may need a tweak.

Penumbral Hoodie
Guest
Penumbral Hoodie
3 years 13 days ago

With a name like ‘Placido,’ how can one not be patient?

Ian R.
Guest
Ian R.
3 years 13 days ago

Have to agree with the previous comments – the metric, as created, doesn’t necessarily describe recklessness. Perhaps K-rate should be incorporated somehow?

To pick a random historical example, Joe DiMaggio posted a RECK of nearly 9 in his rookie year, but he only struck out 39 times all season (a career high for him, but still a rather low strikeout rate for someone with his kind of power). I wouldn’t characterize a season like that as reckless.

David
Guest
David
3 years 13 days ago

Reckless = Swing hard at everything = High slugging (lots of home runs) and low BBs

I don’t think contact rate really factors in, its not a measure of how successful a player is with his approach, its a measure of the recklessness of the approach.

I do agree however, that Keppinger doesn’t seem to fit this bill. Not sure if he has ever swung hard in his life. His is more “super cautious”… “im gonna stick my bat out and hope it touches the ball, and I’m gonna do it early in the count so I dont get to 2 strikes ever”

Alex
Guest
Alex
3 years 13 days ago

For the curious: Evan Gattis has a 5.3548 RECK so far this season, so he would not be in the top 10 were he qualified.

Ano.te
Guest
Ano.te
3 years 13 days ago

Carson,

I have been reading your writing for many years, but it has only been the last 12-18 months where I have really started digging the writing style.

This is my first comment on any of your articles, but it is also fun to note that your little toy stat RECK shows JPA as the most “wreckless” hitter in the league right now. As someone that has watched most of JPA’s major league career, I can attest that JPA is in fact the most reckless batter I have seen in any major league game this year, by far.

As evidenced by tid bits from his interviews, he does not really seem to care. Being RECKless has certainly been a major factor in his performance/results this year.

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